中证报中证网讯（记者 连润）中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）宏观政策季度报告（2025年四季度） 发布会日前在北京举行。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌在发布会上 表示，我国宏观经济在2025年出现了诸多经济复苏早期阶段特征，2026年，要以货币政策激发扩大内需 的内生动力。 对于2025年我国宏观经济，张斌表示，2025年宏观经济出现了一系列经济复苏早期特征。股票市 场、人民币汇率、社融增速、企业存款等金融指标明显改善，企业盈利止住连续下跌势头，消费、劳动 力市场总体运行平稳。 对于2026年如何扩大内需，张斌表示，2026年逆周期政策力度是关键，财政政策有望比2025年更积 极，此外，要通过更积极的货币政策来实现内生增长动力的改善。宽松的货币政策要通过"改变价格预 期"和"让企业居民算得过来账"发挥作用。具体而言，可通过更加明确的通胀预期管理和降低政策利 率，让企业投资和居民买房能"算过来账"，激活经济持续复苏的内生增长动力。此外，要坚定对货币政 策发挥扩大内需作用的信心，打消货币政策使用中的各种疑虑。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the keyword "domestic demand" as a critical observation of the current Chinese economy, highlighting that by 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 50 trillion yuan, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth [1][4] - Despite positive economic indicators, there remains a significant "temperature difference" between consumer spending and corporate investment willingness, indicating that the recovery foundation is not solid [1][4] - The central economic work conference has prioritized "domestic demand-led growth" as a key task, emphasizing the urgency of activating internal circulation amid profound changes in the external environment [3][10] Group 2 - The current economic challenge is identified as a long-term structural contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand," exacerbated by changes in the global trade environment [3][6] - The report indicates that the economy is in the early stages of recovery, with GDP reaching 140 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% [4][8] - There is a call for precise policy coordination to rebuild demand mechanisms and effectively address the constraints of insufficient demand [3][11] Group 3 - The macro policy report suggests that the economy has begun to show signs of recovery, and further policy action could sustain this momentum, with a focus on counter-cyclical policies [11] - Monetary policy is emphasized as crucial for stimulating private investment and residential purchases, with recommendations for lowering policy interest rates to make investments more attractive [12][13] - There is a debate between adopting aggressive monetary policies versus a balanced approach, with some advocating for a more cautious stance on monetary easing [13][14]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The COMEX gold futures price reached a historic high of $5600 per ounce on January 29, driven by geopolitical tensions and monetary policy factors, particularly amid escalating US-Iran conflicts [1][6] - Gold prices have risen for eight consecutive trading days, with significant increases of 3.35% for spot gold and 5.37% for COMEX futures, reaching highs of $5596.33 and $5626.8 respectively [1][6] - Short-term profit-taking has led to a slight pullback, with current spot gold trading around the $5500 mark [1][6] Group 2: Gold Technical Analysis - The gold price experienced a strong upward trend, initially retreating to around $5179 before rebounding to $5314, and eventually reaching a high of $5419 [2][7] - The price surged nearly 200 points to challenge the $5600 level but subsequently fell back over 100 points, indicating potential for technical corrections [2][7] - Key resistance levels are identified at $5550-$5600, while support levels are noted at $5450-$5400 [2][7] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil prices have risen significantly, trading around $63.70 per barrel, with geopolitical tensions being a primary driver, particularly concerns over Middle Eastern oil supply stability [3][6] - President Trump's warnings to Iran regarding potential actions if negotiations fail have heightened market concerns about oil supply disruptions [3][6] Group 4: Oil Technical Analysis - The oil price has entered a consolidation phase after reaching $54.80, with a bullish medium-term outlook as it remains above key moving averages [4][8] - Short-term trends indicate continued upward movement, with resistance levels at $65.5-$66.5 and support levels at $63.0-$62.0 [4][8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the current interest rates in the range of 3.5%–3.75%, which has impacted the crypto market negatively, causing Ethereum (ETH) to fall below the $3,000 mark [1][2] - Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that while growth remains solid, inflation is persistent, and the Fed is not ready to cut rates, with two governors dissenting in favor of a rate cut [2] - The interplay of monetary policy, political developments, and crypto price movements is crucial, alongside the performance of precious metals [3] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, gold prices surged to $5,555, marking a daily increase of 2.5%, which added approximately $1.75 trillion in market value, equivalent to the total value of Bitcoin [4] - Bitcoin typically lags behind gold in price movements, and the current lack of a Fed rate cut is exerting pressure on risk assets while reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as an inflation hedge [4] Political Context - The probability of a US government shutdown has decreased, with negotiations between the White House and Democrats showing progress, leading to improved sentiment [5] - A full government shutdown could disrupt 78% of federal spending, affecting various sectors and potentially draining liquidity from the crypto market [6] - The odds of a shutdown have dropped from 80% to under 50%, indicating a calmer political environment [6] Crypto Market Status - Ethereum's decline below $3,000 represents a 1.3% drop, with open interest remaining at $39 billion and liquidations being contained, suggesting a low-volume trading week [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations[4] - The decision passed with 10 votes in favor and 2 against, indicating internal disagreements influenced by political factors[5] - The dot plot from December indicated only one expected rate cut in 2026, but market expectations suggest two cuts in June and October 2026[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Employment concerns have eased, with the statement emphasizing "robust" economic activity and removing previous language about rising employment risks[6] - The Fed reiterated its commitment to achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty[6] - Powell's remarks indicated a restrictive monetary policy stance, with no immediate plans for rate hikes, focusing instead on data-driven decisions[7] Group 3: Market Impact and Projections - Following the decision, the dollar initially rose but then fell, while gold prices surged past $5,500 per ounce[8] - The outlook for rate cuts before May is limited, with expectations for a more significant reassessment after the new Fed chair is appointed[8] - The market anticipates continued narrow fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields until the new chair is announced, contributing to high expectations for rate cuts in June[8] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policies again[12] - Global economic conditions may weaken, impacting U.S. stock earnings and creating broader market pressures[12] - Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts involving Iran or Ukraine, could lead to increased market volatility[14]

1月29日凌晨，美联储召开2026年首次议息会议，宣布将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的区间，符合市 场预期。此前，美联储已分别在去年9月、10月和12月连续三次降息25个基点。 决议公布后，国际金价强势上攻，一度逼近5600美元。截至发稿，现货黄金徘徊在5500美元的高位，日 内涨幅约2.3%，2026年开年以来已累计涨超28%，涨逾1200美元。白银价格同样大涨，现货白银突破 119美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。 这一情绪也传导至A股市场。29日早盘，贵金属概念集体爆发，招金黄金9天6板，中国黄金5连板，湖 南黄金4连板，四川黄金、晓程科技、山金国际、兴业银锡等纷纷高开。 事实上，机构对黄金的看多预期早已提前释放。此前，已有多家机构相继上调黄金目标价。其中，摩根 士丹利将2026年下半年的黄金目标价提高至5700美元，当前金价距这一目标仅一步之遥。美银和法国兴 业均看高至6000美元，德意志银行则预测年内金价有望触及6000-6900美元。 中信证券在研报中指出，本轮金价走势多被地缘因素和市场情绪主导。此外，各国央行购金潮也是本轮 黄金大牛市的直接驱动力。如中国人民银行已连续14个月增持黄金，2025年全 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Shanghai Headquarters reported that the total social financing in Shanghai increased by 1.1632 trillion yuan in 2025, which is 102.1 billion yuan more than the previous year, effectively meeting the financing needs of the real economy [1] Financing Structure - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy amounted to 658.9 billion yuan, accounting for 56.6% of the total social financing increment [1] - Direct financing rose by 341.9 billion yuan, representing 29.4% of the total social financing increase, with a year-on-year increase of 15 percentage points [1] - Net financing from various types of bonds reached 287.2 billion yuan, an increase of 151.7 billion yuan year-on-year; net financing from non-financial corporate stocks was 54.7 billion yuan, up by 36.9 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Off-balance-sheet net financing, including entrusted loans, trust loans, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills, increased by 73.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 148.7 billion yuan [1] Loan Balances and Growth - As of December 2025, the balance of RMB and foreign currency loans in Shanghai was 13.07 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Specific sectors such as information technology, research services, and inclusive small and micro loans saw year-on-year growth rates of 35.4%, 23.4%, and 14%, respectively [1] Financing Costs - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in Shanghai was 2.64% in December 2025, a decrease of 38 basis points compared to the same period last year, marking a historical low [1] - The weighted average interest rate for small and micro enterprise loans was 2.96%, down by 30 basis points year-on-year [1] Future Policy Directions - The PBOC Shanghai Headquarters plans to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy and coordinate fiscal and financial measures to stimulate domestic demand, aiming to maintain low comprehensive financing costs and enhance financial services for the real economy [2]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The U.S. economy showed resilience with a Q3 2025 GDP growth rate of 4.4% year-on-year, although private investment contributed only 0.03 percentage points to this growth[2] - Non-farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs in December 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, indicating a mixed labor market[2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core inflation continued to decline, with December 2025 CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.6%, approaching the Fed's 2% target[2] - The Fed's decision to hold rates steady is justified by the ongoing economic conditions and previous rate cuts in late 2025[1][2] - Future monetary policy may see 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, totaling 50-75 basis points, potentially faster and more aggressive than current market expectations[6] Political and Institutional Challenges - Increased political pressure on the Fed since April 2025 poses risks to its independence, with potential impacts on inflation expectations and long-term price stability[3][5] - The upcoming transition in the Fed chair position may influence the committee's focus on potential economic downturns, leading to a more proactive approach in monetary policy adjustments[6] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market signals are lagging, complicating the Fed's ability to gauge inflation accurately, as the relationship between wage growth and prices has weakened[6] - The Fed may adopt a forward-looking risk management approach, adjusting policies before clear signs of labor market deterioration emerge[6]

Core Viewpoint - The CF40 report indicates that China's macroeconomic environment in Q4 2025 shows early signs of economic recovery, with expectations for continued marginal improvement in 2026, contingent on robust counter-cyclical policies [1][2] Economic Performance in 2025 - China's macroeconomic indicators such as stock market performance, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits have shown significant improvement [1] - Corporate profits have halted a multi-year decline, and consumption and the labor market are generally stable [1] - The report attributes the economic recovery to fiscal support, external demand, and prior price adjustments, while noting that investment and the real estate market still face considerable pressure, indicating weak endogenous economic momentum [1] Strategies for 2026 - To continue expanding domestic demand and enhance endogenous economic momentum in 2026, the report emphasizes the importance of strong counter-cyclical policies [2] - Fiscal policy should involve active borrowing to maintain necessary spending levels, while monetary policy is crucial for stimulating endogenous growth [2] - A loose monetary policy is expected to work by changing expectations and ensuring that microeconomic entities can make viable financial calculations [2] - The central bank's clear commitment to inflation targets and significant reductions in policy interest rates are seen as essential for encouraging private investment and home purchases [2] - The report advocates for a dual approach leveraging both government and market forces to maximize the role of monetary policy in expanding domestic demand [2] International Economic Context - CF40 members highlight the changing international economic environment, noting China's transition from a "small economy" to a "large economy," which makes domestic economic circulation increasingly important [2] - To expand domestic demand, it is essential to allow the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while enhancing government public policy effectiveness, improving residents' income, and developing the service sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75% during the upcoming meeting, as recent economic data does not support a rate cut [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of maintaining the interest rate at the January meeting is as high as 97.2%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.8% [5]. - By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 47.8%, but over 30% still expect rates to remain unchanged [5]. - The Federal Reserve has recently implemented three rate cuts, and the upcoming meeting may see a pause in further adjustments, with Chairman Powell likely to emphasize satisfaction with the current monetary policy stance [5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. job market has cooled but has not deteriorated, and consumer spending remains robust, indicating that the economy is not on the brink of a typical recession [4]. - The PCE price index rose to 2.8% in November, still significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, suggesting that a rate cut could exacerbate inflation [4]. Group 3: Leadership and Institutional Concerns - The focus is shifting towards the institutional aspects of the Federal Reserve, particularly with President Trump expected to announce a new chairperson soon [6][7]. - There are speculations that Powell may remain on the board after stepping down as chair, which could influence the balance of power within the FOMC [6][7]. - Analysts believe that even with a new chair, significant changes in interest rate policy would require consensus within the FOMC, rather than simply following presidential directives [7].