交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 交易咨询号：Z0019917 审核：邓 丹 交易资询号：Z0011401 丙烯基本情况介绍 1、丙烯简介 丙烯是一种无色、无臭、略带甜味的极度易燃气体，燃烧时会产生明亮的火焰，具有较低的爆炸极限（2%～ 11.1%）, 在水中溶解度较低，但可溶于乙醇、乙醚等有机溶剂。丙烯是重要的化工原料，主要用于生产聚丙烯，此 外还可合成丙烯腈、环氧丙烷、异丙醇、苯酚、丙酮等化学品，广泛应用于塑料、医药、农业等领域。 尽管丙烯的产业应用广泛，但根据世界卫生组织国际癌症研究机构（IARC），丙烯被列为3类致癌物，长期高浓度 接触可能带来健康风险。 2、丙烯产业链 丙烯的生成方法主要包括以下几种： 图：丙烯产业链 蒸汽裂解：是传统主流工艺，通过高温热裂解石油中的石脑油、乙烷、LPG等原料，丙烯的收率约为16%。 催化裂化：以炼油副产的重油为原料，通过催化裂化工艺生成丙烯，成本较低，收率在4-7%之间。 丙烷脱氢：这是一种新型工艺，专产丙烯，近年产能扩张最快，通过丙烷脱氢制丙烯，近年来在国内的应用逐渐增 多，依赖丙烷和丙烯的价格差。 煤/甲醇制烯烃：这是中国特色的路线，通过煤或甲醇 ...

列车飞驰，将一包包皮棉从天山棉田运往长三角纺织车间。沿着这条跨越五千公里的棉花产业链，期货 工具以专业力量为其护航，帮助相关经营主体抵御着市场风险。 近年来，随着市场环境的变化以及棉花行业竞争的日益加剧，棉企也对风险管理提出个性化、精细化的 需求，加快了期货衍生工具的升级速度。面对新挑战，浙期实业依托自身专业优势与丰富从业经验，积 极探索更能满足企业需求的新方案，以期权为核心不断提高期货服务的准度与效度，持续为实体企业提 供优质的风险管理服务。 "除了提高企业的套保效率外，怎样降低操作难度也是我们工作的关注点。"在谈及为A企业设计买入累 计看涨期权方案时，浙期实业场外负责人蓝旻解释。针对棉花市场行情特点，浙期实业在普通场外期权 的基础上为A企业定制了新方案，通过买入累计看涨期权的方式降低套保难度，从而让企业以较少的成 本实现对棉花库存的风险管理。 从去年4月以来，棉花期货价格持续走跌，并延续着较强的动荡态势，市场行情呈现复杂多变的特点。 对于棉企而言，传统的套保方案无法适应极端行情的变化，而现实的市场风险又在积累，寻找如何破局 的需求非常强烈。为此，浙期实业主动作为、靠前服务，以实体企业的经营痛点和发展难题为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the financial derivatives business management system of Zhejiang Xinkai Technology Group Co., Ltd., emphasizing risk prevention and control in derivatives trading, aligning with relevant laws and regulations [1][2]. Summary by Sections General Principles - The system aims to regulate the financial derivatives trading behavior of the company and its subsidiaries, ensuring compliance with laws such as the Company Law and Securities Law of the People's Republic of China [1]. - Financial derivatives include products like forwards, options, swaps, and currency swaps, which can be settled either through physical delivery or cash difference [1]. Operational Principles - The company and its subsidiaries must strictly control the types and scale of derivatives trading, ensuring it does not affect normal business operations [2]. - Derivatives trading should not be solely for profit but should be based on normal business operations, focusing on hedging and risk prevention related to exchange rates and interest rates [2]. Approval Authority - Any foreign exchange derivatives trading must be preceded by a feasibility analysis report submitted to the board of directors for approval [2]. - Overall plans and limits for derivatives trading must comply with regulations and require board approval; if exceeding board authority, shareholder approval is necessary [2]. Management and Operational Processes - The board authorizes the chairman and representatives to manage foreign exchange derivatives trading, including signing legal documents [4]. - The finance director leads the derivatives team, overseeing risk management, market analysis, and strategy formulation [4]. - The operations team is responsible for providing relevant data and ensuring approved funds for derivatives trading are monitored and reconciled monthly [5]. Risk Management - A risk measurement system is established to assess funding risks and price fluctuation risks associated with derivatives trading [6]. - In case of significant market changes that increase risks, the company must report and initiate emergency measures [6]. - A stop-loss mechanism is activated when market price fluctuations approach predetermined limits [6]. Information Disclosure - The company must disclose information regarding derivatives trading in accordance with regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7]. - Any confirmed gains or losses from derivatives trading that exceed 10% of the most recent audited net profit must be disclosed promptly [7]. Other Provisions - The management system will be effective upon approval by the board and will be interpreted by the board [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is seeking public opinion on the futures and options contracts for propylene, indicating the imminent launch of these financial instruments in China, which is the largest producer of olefins [1][3]. Industry Overview - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical that connects various upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, coal, methanol, and propane, and has extensive applications in textiles, cosmetics, and home appliances [3]. - In the chemical fiber industry, propylene can be polymerized to produce polypropylene, which is used to manufacture polypropylene fibers. These fibers are lightweight, strong, corrosion-resistant, and recyclable, with expanding applications in ropes, fishing nets, safety belts, and packaging materials, as well as significant market potential in textiles like bedding, clothing, and carpets [3]. - The market for polypropylene products is expected to grow significantly, especially under the "dual carbon" goals promoting low-carbon and recyclable products [3]. Market Dynamics - The propylene industry faces structural overcapacity and is undergoing a transformation towards high-end and green development, leading to a strong demand for risk management tools among industry chain enterprises [3][6]. - The introduction of propylene futures and options will provide pricing and risk management tools for upstream and downstream enterprises, enhancing China's pricing influence in the chemical industry and promoting high-quality development in the propylene sector [3][6]. Futures and Options Details - The futures contract for propylene will have a trading code of PL, with a trading unit of 20 tons per contract, a minimum price fluctuation of 1 yuan per ton, and a daily price fluctuation limit of ±4% based on the previous day's settlement price [4]. - The minimum trading margin will be 5% of the contract value, with delivery months from January to December, and the last trading and delivery days set for the 10th and 13th trading days of the delivery month, respectively [4]. - The delivery standards specify that the benchmark delivery product must meet the national standard for polymer-grade propylene, with specific water content requirements [4][5]. Risk Management and Participation - Propylene futures will utilize warehouse and factory standard warehouse receipts for delivery, ensuring efficiency and flexibility for industry clients [5]. - The position limits are set at 2000 contracts for regular months, 500 contracts for the month before delivery, and 50 contracts for the delivery month, reflecting the design of the contract rules to accommodate the actual characteristics of the spot market [6].

Group 1 - The event "Stable Enterprises and Safe Agriculture - Futures Services for the Cotton Industry" was successfully held in Xinjiang, focusing on risk management strategies in the global cotton market [1] - The conference gathered macroeconomic experts, industry authorities, risk management institutions, and enterprise representatives to discuss practical solutions for the cotton industry [1] - A total of 69 cotton-related enterprises and 87 representatives recognized the event's contributions to risk management [1] Group 2 - Professor He Wenbin from Xinjiang Finance University highlighted three long-term trends affecting the global economy: geopolitical fragmentation, technological transformation, and the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity [3] - China is transitioning from a real estate-driven economy to one focused on technological innovation, with significant growth in trade surplus and high-tech exports [3] - He Wenbin predicts continued policy support for domestic demand through monetary easing and regulatory coordination, while also implementing proactive fiscal policies to counter external challenges [3] Group 3 - Sun Gang, Deputy General Manager of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Cotton and Hemp Co., emphasized the importance of hedging as a common tool for managing price volatility in the cotton market [5] - He proposed flexible use of options, such as "buying put insurance strategies" to lock in profits during price declines and "covered call strategies" to enhance returns [5] - Sun Gang stressed the need for enterprises to follow the "four strong" principles: strong logic, strong systems, strong review, and strong iteration to build a dynamic risk management system [5] Group 4 - Researcher Li Shuaige from Rongda Futures reported that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to grow by 2.93% year-on-year by 2025, with northern and southern Xinjiang increasing by 3.68% and 2.39%, respectively [7] - Favorable climate conditions have improved seedling emergence rates and height indicators, with an estimated total cotton production in Xinjiang for this year ranging from 6.75 million to 6.95 million tons [7] - This data provides essential reference for cotton-related enterprises to anticipate the new year's supply-demand dynamics and supports the application of futures tools [7] Group 5 - Wang Sijia, Assistant General Manager of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry's U.S. branch, analyzed the cotton market fundamentals, indicating a projected cotton production of 6.97 million tons in China for the 2024/2025 season, an increase of 1.02 million tons year-on-year [9] - However, consumption is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, leading to a rise in the inventory-to-sales ratio to 101.4%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The meeting served as a platform for cotton enterprises to exchange insights on macroeconomic assessments, supply-demand data, and risk management tools, addressing challenges posed by global trade restructuring and price volatility [9]

■郝飞 夏粮收购事关粮食安全与农民增收，在这一关键时期，银行应积极履行社会责任，通过加大信贷投入、 优化支付结算、提供风险管理服务及加强金融科技应用等措施，有效破解夏粮收购过程中的资金与风险 难题，为夏粮稳产丰收贡献坚实金融力量，全力护航我国粮食安全和农业稳定发展。 （文章来源：证券日报） 支付结算服务的优化升级，是夏粮收购高效推进的重要保障。银行要充分发挥支付结算优势，为夏粮收 购提供便捷高效的支付渠道。一方面，确保收购现场的现金供应充足，及时调配现金资源，方便粮农当 场结算售粮款。另一方面，大力推广非现金支付方式，如银行卡支付、移动支付等，提高支付效率，减 少现金交易风险。同时，银行应加强与粮食收购企业和粮农沟通协调，为他们提供上门收款、现场结算 等服务，确保收购款项快速安全支付到农民手中。 面临夏粮收购过程中的市场价格波动、自然灾害等风险，银行可利用自身专业优势，为粮食收购企业等 主体提供风险管理服务。例如，提供农产品价格走势分析、市场风险预警等信息，帮助企业提前制定收 购策略。同时，深化与保险机构合作，为粮食收购环节提供农业保险、仓储保险等产品，为粮食安全保 驾护航。 金融科技是银行提升夏粮收购服务效 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is the largest sugar production area in China, producing approximately 6 million tons annually, accounting for over 60% of the national output. The local government aims to enhance the integration of futures and spot markets to promote the sugar industry and regional economic development [1] Group 1: Market Background - In 2024, domestic sugar prices fluctuated, with the average sales price for sugar enterprises dropping from 6,561 yuan/ton to 6,075 yuan/ton. The total sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to be 11.15 million tons, an increase of about 1.19 million tons from the previous season [2] - The sugar market is influenced by various factors, including low carryover stocks and tight processing sugar sources, leading to strong spot prices initially. However, international market changes have introduced uncertainties, with expectations of increased domestic sugar imports and production, posing risks to future sugar prices [2] Group 2: Implementation Process - In January 2025, a major sugar enterprise in Guangxi adopted a hybrid trading model to lock in production profits amid concerns of falling sugar prices. This model integrated off-market options into their spot trading [3] Group 3: Business Model - The enterprise signed a spot purchase contract with a trading company, embedding structured off-market options into the contract while monitoring futures contract closing prices to confirm transaction volumes [4] Group 4: Pricing Scheme - The contract activates when the Zhengzhou sugar 2505 contract exceeds 5,920 yuan/ton, with a validity of 70 days and a base transaction volume of 50 tons per day. The pricing mechanism allows for premium sales compared to market prices, providing a safety margin against price drops [5] Group 5: Effectiveness Evaluation - The enterprise successfully achieved premium sales, with the 2505 contract price ranging from 5,821 to 6,198 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,170 yuan/ton. The average sales price was approximately 50 yuan/ton higher than the market price during the same period [6] Group 6: Risk Management and Training - The hybrid trading model simplifies the use of options for sugar enterprises, addressing challenges such as lack of expertise and management constraints. It enhances revenue while providing a safety margin against price risks [8] - Training sessions and workshops have been conducted to improve risk management awareness among enterprises, covering market trends, price volatility, and risk assessment methods [11] Group 7: Market Development - The introduction of short-term options in February 2023 is expected to significantly boost hybrid trading, allowing for better alignment with enterprises' short-term turnover needs and reducing costs associated with traditional options [12]

Core Insights - The domestic steel industry is facing significant challenges over the past two years, necessitating effective risk management to ensure stable operations [1] - The company provides comprehensive risk management services to clients in the steel supply chain, including macro and industry qualitative analysis, risk factor identification, price forecasting, hedging strategy optimization, and options tool application [1] Service Process - Continuous alerts regarding the downward price risk of black series commodities were provided from late 2023 to early 2024, enabling the company to offer integrated risk management services to upstream and downstream clients [2] Derivative Products - The project targets rebar futures and over-the-counter options, specifically the SHFE rebar 2405 contract, based on the risk management needs of steel trading entities [3] Execution Process - Risk warning services were provided before price declines, advising steel traders and manufacturers to increase hedging ratios from December 2023 to January 2024 [4] - On January 4, 2024, recommendations were made for steel traders to enhance hedging for hot-rolled futures, with the Shanghai spot market hot-rolled price at 4110 CNY/ton and the HC2405 contract short position entry price at 4150 CNY/ton [4] - On February 20, 2024, a recommendation to close positions was made, with the Shanghai spot market hot-rolled price at 3970 CNY/ton and the futures closing price at 3890 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis expansion of 120 CNY/ton [4] - A specialized presentation was conducted for an automotive manufacturing client on January 11, 2024, emphasizing the need to increase hedging for steel inventory, which the client successfully achieved [4] Risk Management During Price Decline - From February to March 2024, as black series commodity prices entered a downward trend, the company designed futures interval hedging strategies for steel traders and manufacturers, utilizing options tools for customized risk management services [4][5] - A strategy was suggested to buy put options for the RB2405 contract at a price of 3700 CNY/ton to mitigate downside risk while retaining potential upside from rising spot prices [5] Risk Management During Price Fluctuation - For steel traders and downstream construction clients, a "supply guarantee and price lock" collaboration was designed to achieve mutual benefits during the price fluctuation period [5] - On March 18, 2024, a long position was established for the RB2405 contract at 3420 CNY/ton, with the spot market price at 3610 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis of 190 CNY/ton [5] - On March 22, 2024, the long position was closed at 3630 CNY/ton, with the spot market price at 3660 CNY/ton, leading to a favorable basis movement [5] Project Summary - The establishment of an "all-weather" risk management service model allowed for personalized risk management strategies tailored to different stages, enterprise types, and risk preferences during a price decline [6] - In the first quarter of 2024, the company provided alerts on price volatility risks and designed risk management plans for clients in the black industry chain, effectively mitigating challenges posed by adverse price fluctuations [6]

Core Insights - THPX signal source utilizes AI-driven quantitative signals to assist XAGBTC traders in identifying optimal trading opportunities in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market [1][5][10] - The system enhances trading success rates and supports strategy optimization through advanced signal data processing and complex algorithmic calculations [5][6][9] Signal Data Processing - Signal data processing is crucial for accurately capturing market dynamics, enabling the identification of potential trading opportunities and risk factors through efficient analysis of real-time market data [5][6] - Machine learning algorithms underpin the signal data processing, providing a solid foundation for optimizing trading strategies [5] Algorithmic Mechanism - The algorithmic mechanism of THPX signal source employs complex mathematical models and real-time data analysis to efficiently predict market trends and optimize trading strategies [5][6] - By continuously updating and adjusting algorithm parameters, the system adapts to market changes, maximizing traders' profit potential [5][6] Market Trend Analysis - Market trend analysis plays a vital role in financial markets, helping traders make informed decisions by studying past data and predicting future trends [6][9] - THPX signal source leverages big data analysis and machine learning models for real-time monitoring and analysis of market trends, allowing traders to seize trading opportunities during market fluctuations [6][9] Risk Management Strategies - Integrated risk management modules within THPX signal source aim to reduce the impact of risk events by continuously monitoring market volatility and adjusting trading parameters accordingly [6][10] - The system employs AI models to predict potential risk events, providing preventive strategies to safeguard investors' capital [6][10] Trading Psychology and Emotional Management - Effective emotional management is essential for traders to maintain composure during market volatility, thereby avoiding impulsive decisions [8] - Developing a stable trading mindset is crucial for improving trading success rates [8] Technical Indicators and Trading Strategy Optimization - Technical indicators, such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), are vital tools for traders to identify market trends and potential trading opportunities [8] - Combining various technical indicators can enhance the accuracy of buy and sell timing, thereby increasing trading success rates [8] Overall Performance of THPX Signal Source - The application of THPX signal source in XAGBTC trading has significantly improved the precision of investment decisions, enabling traders to effectively capture market fluctuations and optimize entry and exit timing [10] - Data indicates that portfolios utilizing THPX signal source demonstrate superior performance in terms of return and risk control [10]

Core Insights - The article explores the lives and strategies of some of the most famous futures traders, highlighting their innovative methods, risk management techniques, and discipline, which provide valuable lessons for traders and investors [1][13]. Group 1: Richard Dennis - Richard Dennis, known as the "King of Trading," turned a small loan into over $200 million by his early 30s and is famous for the "Turtle Traders" experiment, proving that trading can be taught [2][4]. - His breakout strategy involves buying when prices break above a certain level and selling when they fall below, based on the assumption that trends tend to continue [4]. - Dennis emphasizes strict risk management, typically risking only 1-2% of his capital on any single trade, which helps him survive consecutive losses [4]. - He adjusts position sizes based on market volatility, increasing positions in low-volatility markets and decreasing them in high-volatility ones [4]. - Quick stop-loss orders are a key rule for Dennis, ensuring that losses are kept to a minimum [4]. Group 2: Paul Tudor Jones - Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp, is renowned for predicting and profiting from the 1987 stock market crash, reportedly tripling his funds that day [2][6]. - His global macro trading strategy involves making large bets across multiple asset classes based on macroeconomic trends, including futures [6]. - Jones values technical analysis alongside macroeconomic analysis, looking for chart patterns and signals for entry and exit points [6]. - He often takes contrarian positions, betting against prevailing market sentiment, believing that the best investment opportunities arise when market consensus is wrong [6]. - Dynamic risk management is central to his strategy, involving strict stop-losses and adjusting position sizes based on market volatility and confidence in trades [6]. Group 3: John W. Henry - John W. Henry, a legendary futures trader and owner of the Boston Red Sox and Liverpool FC, is known for his systematic, algorithm-driven trading approach [3][8]. - His trading strategy is based on systematic trend following, focusing on a wide range of futures markets to diversify risk and capture various market trends [8]. - Henry implements strict risk management rules, including capital allocation limits per trade and using stop-loss orders to protect against significant losses [8]. - He adopts a long-term perspective, willing to hold positions through drawdowns, believing in the long-term profitability of his strategies [8]. - Continuous research and development are crucial to his success, as he adapts his trading systems based on historical data and market behavior [8]. Group 4: Ed Seykota - Ed Seykota, an influential futures trader, is recognized for developing and implementing computerized trading systems in the 1970s [3][10]. - His strategy combines systematic trend following with emotional discipline, using automated systems to generate trading signals based on technical indicators and historical data [10]. - Seykota emphasizes the importance of position management in risk control, adjusting trade sizes based on market volatility to prevent significant damage to the overall portfolio [10]. - He is known for his focus on trading psychology, stressing the need to manage emotions and adhere to trading systems even during losing periods [10]. - Quick stop-loss orders are central to Seykota's strategy, allowing for rapid exits from losing trades to prevent small losses from escalating [10]. Group 5: Larry Williams - Larry Williams, a renowned commodity and futures trader, is famous for his short-term trading strategies and winning multiple trading competitions [3][12]. - His strategy focuses on short-term trading and precise market timing, particularly in commodity futures [12]. - Williams utilizes seasonal patterns in commodities as part of his trading approach [12]. - He emphasizes risk control, likening traders to warriors who need shields to protect themselves from losses, advocating for strong capital management [12]. - Williams believes that trading strategies should be personalized, akin to finding the right pair of shoes that fit well, rather than adhering to universally accepted methods [12].