新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 短期警惕情绪亢奋后的回落 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23910元/吨，较上一交易日变化600元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-220元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价23680元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-450元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23860元/吨，较上一交易日变化610元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-270元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-06日沪铝主力合约开于23560元/吨，收于24335元/吨，较上一交易日变化775元/吨，最 高价达24375元/吨，最低价达到23500元/吨。全天交易日成交551669手，全天交易日持仓253076手。 库存方面，截止2026-01-06，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存68.4万吨，较上一期变化1.5万吨，仓单库存84204 吨，较上一交易日变化1408吨，LME铝库存504250吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝：东澳以FOB305美元/吨成交3万吨氧化铝，价格环比昨日基本持平。供应过剩的局面始终未改，检修与复 2026年期货市场研究 ...

有迹象显示，银行和贸易商们正竞相扩大贵金属交易部门和仓储物流能力，以把握今年黄金创纪录涨势 带来的机遇——这轮历史性的黄金大牛市，让沉寂多时的实物黄金交易和仓储托管业务，突然跃升为了 金融界"最暴利"的领域之一。 2025年黄金和白银价格的飙升行情，近期仍在不断再度加速。周三现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司4500美 元，银价本周则跨越每盎司70美元的里程碑。今年以来，金银累计涨幅分别达到了71%和150%。 数据分析公司Crisil Coalition Greenwich数据显示，在贵金属价格大涨的背景下，今年前九个月主要银 行贵金属交易部门的收入，已较2024年同期飙升了五成。 Crisil研究经理Callum Minns表示，"今年贵金属市场蕴藏巨大利润空间，各方都表现得相当积极。" 他补充道，对于顶尖银行而言，贵金属在其整体市场业务中所占的比例正变得越来越大。 根据Crisil的数据显示，今年1月至9月期间，12家业务领先银行的贵金属交易收入达到了约14亿美元， 这意味着2025年有望成为银行黄金交易史上第二好的年份，仅次于2020年。 招兵买马、布局金库 市场参与者透露，就连一些此前关闭贵金属交易部门的银 ...

Core Insights - A financial professional in the U.S. has spent over four months accumulating nearly 30 tons of 5-cent coins, raising questions about the rationale behind this decision and potential arbitrage opportunities [2] Group 1 - The individual chose to accumulate 30 tons of 5-cent coins instead of opting for $250,000 in cash, indicating a strategic decision based on perceived value [2] - The process involved exchanging coins in batches through the banking system, highlighting the logistical challenges and time investment required for such an endeavor [2] - The situation presents an intriguing case for exploring arbitrage opportunities within the coinage system, suggesting potential financial benefits that may not be immediately apparent [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures Fund has upgraded its purchase limits due to a surge in precious metal prices, with the A and C class shares now limited to 100 yuan and 1000 yuan respectively, to ensure stable fund operations and protect investors' interests [1][2][3] Fund Purchase Limit Upgrade - The fund announced a significant reduction in daily purchase limits for A and C class shares, effective from October 20, with limits set at 100 yuan and 1000 yuan respectively, down from previous limits of 6000 yuan and 40000 yuan [2][3][4] - This is the second limit upgrade within a short period, following an initial limit imposed on October 15 [4][6] Market Context - The silver market has seen a remarkable increase, with silver prices reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as renewed trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][9] - As of October 17, the A unit net value of the fund has increased by 58.10% year-to-date, outperforming gold-related funds during the same period [6][9] Fund Management Considerations - The fund management has opted to limit purchases to mitigate increased volatility and speculative behavior in the silver market, which has been exacerbated by rapid price increases [6][7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has also adjusted margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver futures to curb speculation [6][7] Arbitrage Opportunities - The current market conditions present arbitrage opportunities, with a notable premium between the fund's market price and its net asset value, prompting the fund company to implement purchase limits to prevent concentrated inflows of arbitrage capital [8][9] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has gained significant attention, with its price surpassing 50 USD per ounce for the first time, and it has outperformed gold in terms of percentage increase this year [9][11] - The industrial demand for silver, which constitutes over 50% of its usage, makes it more sensitive to global economic conditions compared to gold [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The capital operations of Jing Sheng Co., Ltd. have raised market concerns regarding the potential "buy low, sell high" strategy, as the company is simultaneously planning a private placement and acquisition while facing shareholder reductions in holdings [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Operations - Jing Sheng Co., Ltd. has been active in capital operations, announcing on October 9, 2025, plans for issuing shares and cash to acquire assets while raising matching funds [1]. - The major shareholder, Xin Rui Ji Cheng, announced a plan to reduce holdings by up to 4,150,900 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, citing "personal funding needs" [1]. - The timing of the shareholder reduction and the company's major asset restructuring announcement, which led to a trading suspension, has drawn attention [1]. Group 2: Pricing Discrepancies - The difference between the shareholder reduction price and the company's private placement price is critical in assessing the "buy low, sell high" scenario [2]. - Xin Rui Ji Cheng's minimum reduction price is set at 31.82 yuan per share, while the asset purchase issuance price is 28.93 yuan per share, indicating a 9.1% lower entry point for new investors [2]. - As of September 9, 2025, the stock price was 37.97 yuan per share, which is 31.2% higher than the private placement price and 19.4% higher than the reduction price, creating an arbitrage opportunity for private placement participants [2]. Group 3: Business Challenges - Jing Sheng Co., Ltd. faces significant challenges in its core business, reporting a revenue of 158 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 20.29% [3]. - The company recorded a net loss of 7.45 million yuan, marking a 121.29% decline from profitability [3]. - The gross margin has drastically decreased to 3.87%, down nearly 90% from 35.22% in 2022 [3]. - The company raised 1.016 billion yuan through its initial public offering, with 540 million yuan in excess funds, and has allocated 160 million yuan of this to permanently supplement working capital, raising questions about the simultaneous push for acquisitions [3].

Group 1 - ExxonMobil has doubled the number of traders in the UK over the past two years, aiming to leverage its extensive global energy infrastructure for increased profits [1] - The company currently employs around 300 traders, analysts, and support staff in London and is actively recruiting globally to expand its network [1] - Despite the expansion, ExxonMobil's trading division remains smaller than competitors like BP and Shell, and its strategy is more conservative compared to peers [1] Group 2 - The growth in personnel is primarily due to external hiring, with some staff relocating from Brussels after a shift in trading operations [1] - CEO Darren Woods is focusing on arbitrage opportunities related to the company's assets, adopting a more cautious approach than European competitors [1] - The expanded London trading department will cover crude oil, natural gas, refined products, electricity, and freight, with ongoing recruitment including plans to hire graduates [1] Group 3 - In Singapore, ExxonMobil has hired the former head of Vitol Group's LNG business, Sid Bamba Waller, to lead its global LNG trading efforts [2] - The company aims to double its LNG sales to over 40 million tons per year by 2030 [2] - ExxonMobil is adjusting its compensation structure to align more closely with industry standards, offering performance-based cash bonuses to traders [2] Group 4 - As the London trading team expands, ExxonMobil plans to close its long-standing office in Letham Head, with remaining employees transitioning to the London trading center or the Fawley refining and integrated base [2]

Core Insights - The significance of synthetic futures lies in their ability to provide flexible risk management tools for investors, allowing for personalized hedging strategies based on market expectations and risk tolerance [3] - Synthetic futures can lower trading costs compared to traditional futures trading by avoiding high margin requirements and additional margin calls through the payment of option premiums [5] - The strategy enhances the diversity of trading strategies available to investors, enabling them to combine synthetic futures with other financial instruments for more effective asset allocation and risk balancing [6] - Synthetic futures also present arbitrage opportunities when pricing discrepancies arise between the futures and options markets, contributing to market liquidity and price discovery [7] Summary of Synthetic Futures Composition - Synthetic futures are created by simultaneously buying call options and selling put options to establish a long position, or by buying put options and selling call options to establish a short position [2] - The combination of options results in a linear profit and loss structure, contrasting with the non-linear structure of individual options [2] Risk Management - Synthetic futures provide a means for investors to manage risks associated with market volatility, allowing for reverse operations to mitigate adverse market movements [3] Cost Efficiency - By utilizing synthetic futures, investors can enhance capital efficiency and reduce financial costs associated with margin requirements in traditional futures trading [5] Trading Strategy Flexibility - Investors can adjust the strike prices and expiration dates of options within synthetic futures to capture market opportunities and manage risks according to their preferences [6] Arbitrage Potential - The existence of pricing discrepancies between futures and options markets allows investors to engage in arbitrage through synthetic futures, leading to potential risk-free profits [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market has shown a trend of increasing supply and demand recently. The supply of petroleum benzene is stable, and the hydrogenated benzene has reached a historical high. The demand has recovered to the pre - maintenance level in the second quarter. There may be arbitrage opportunities if the supply - demand rhythm is misaligned. However, the demand has not improved substantially [4]. - The styrene market is generally weak due to the continuous deterioration of the supply - demand structure. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is further weakening. The supply - demand gap is expanding, and it has entered the inventory accumulation stage. Although the short - term disk is supported by oil prices and macro - sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On July 14, the styrene main contract rose 0.84% to 7,478 yuan/ton, with a basis of 237 (-72 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract fell 0.79% to 6,189 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On July 14, Brent crude closed at $68.5/barrel (+$1.9/barrel), WTI at $70.4/barrel (+$1.7/barrel), and the East China pure benzene spot was 5,945 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene factory inventory was 210,000 tons (+16,000 tons), a 8.1% increase; Jiangsu port inventory was 112,000 tons (+13,000 tons), a 12.9% increase [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance devices returned, and the supply was stable. The weekly output was 363,000 tons (-4,000 tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 79.2% (-0.8%) [2]. - **Demand**: The 3S downstream开工率 (capacity utilization rate) changed differently. EPS was 51.1% (-4.82%), ABS was 65.0% (+0.0%), and PS was 51.1% (-1.3%), with the overall开工 rate declining [3]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure Benzene**: Supply and demand both increased. Supply was stable in petroleum benzene and reached a high in hydrogenated benzene. Demand recovered, and there may be arbitrage opportunities. The spot price rose with the disk, but demand had no substantial improvement [4]. - **Styrene**: The market was weak due to supply - demand deterioration. Supply pressure was high, demand weakened, and the supply - demand gap expanded. It entered the inventory accumulation stage, but the short - term disk was relatively firm [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures rose 0.84%, and spot rose 0.35%. Pure benzene prices in different regions had different changes. Brent crude rose 2.82%, WTI rose 2.51%, and naphtha rose 0.10% [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: Styrene production decreased 1.03%, pure benzene production decreased 0.37%. Styrene port and factory inventories increased, while pure benzene port inventory decreased 1.69% [7]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Styrene's capacity utilization rate decreased 0.82%, and the downstream 3S products' capacity utilization rates generally declined [8]. 3.3 Industry News - In 2025, the basic pension for retirees will be increased by 2%. - Trump said that if Canada raises tariffs on the US, the US will raise its 35% tariff on Canada accordingly. - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% tariffs on most trading partners [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import and domestic pure benzene cost comparison, styrene and pure benzene inventory, and downstream product capacity utilization rates [10][15][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The overall start - up of petroleum benzene devices has changed little, while the start - up of hydro - benzene has reached a historical high. The demand has recovered to the level before the second - quarter maintenance period. In the third quarter, new downstream device launches may bring arbitrage opportunities. The spot price has increased, but there is no substantial improvement in demand [6]. - The benzene - ethylene market is weak due to the deterioration of the supply - demand structure. Supply is under continuous pressure, and demand from the 3S products is weakening. The supply - demand gap is widening, and the market is entering a stock - building phase. Although the short - term market is supported by oil prices and macro - sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On July 11, the benzene - ethylene main contract closed down 1.38% at 7416 yuan/ton, with a basis of 309 (+104 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.51% at 6183 yuan/ton [4]. - **Cost**: On July 11, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.6 dollars/barrel (-1.8 dollars/barrel), WTI at 68.6 dollars/barrel (-1.6 dollars/barrel), and the East China pure benzene spot price was 5945 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Inventory**: Benzene - ethylene sample factory inventory was 21.0 million tons (+1.6 million tons), a sequential increase of 8.1%; Jiangsu port inventory was 11.2 million tons (+1.3 million tons), a sequential increase of 12.9% [4]. - **Supply**: Benzene - ethylene maintenance devices returned, and the overall supply was stable. The weekly output was 36.3 million tons (-0.4 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 79.2% (-0.8%) [4]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of downstream 3S products varied. EPS capacity utilization was 51.1% (-4.82%), ABS was 65.0% (+0.0%), and PS was 51.1% (-1.3%), with the overall start - up rate declining [5]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply - side, the overall start - up of petroleum benzene devices changed little, while hydro - benzene reached a historical high. Demand - side, the start - up rate of caprolactam increased steadily, and the overall demand has recovered. The East China port inventory increased slightly this week. In the third quarter, new device launches may bring arbitrage opportunities [6]. - **Benzene - Ethylene**: The market trend was weak due to the worsening supply - demand structure. Supply was under pressure, and demand from 3S products decreased. The supply - demand gap widened, and the market entered a stock - building phase. Although the short - term market was supported, the fundamentals were bearish [7]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene prices showed different trends on July 11 compared to July 10. The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI, and naphtha also changed [9]. - **Output and Inventory**: From July 4 to July 11, the output of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene in China decreased slightly, while the inventory of benzene - ethylene increased and that of pure benzene decreased slightly [10]. - **Start - up Rates**: The capacity utilization rates of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene downstream products changed from July 4 to July 11, with some increasing and some decreasing [11]. 3. Industry News - In 2025, the basic pension for retirees will be raised by 2% [12]. - Trump said that if Canada raises tariffs, the US will raise its 35% tariff on Canada accordingly [12]. - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% general tariffs on most trading partners [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, benzene - ethylene prices, benzene - ethylene - pure benzene spreads, inventory, and capacity utilization rates of related products [13][18][19]

Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, copper prices declined. The US copper tariff policy had two unexpected changes: a 50% tariff rate and implementation between late July and early August. This high - tariff and fast - implementation policy ended the ongoing export - to - US arbitrage path, increased price pressure on LME copper, and caused inventory to show an inflection point. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on SHFE copper and short on LME copper [4][86]. - The mid - year long - term contract negotiation settled at $0, severely hitting smelters' long - term profitability. Currently, domestic production remains high, and sulfuric acid and by - product profits barely cover losses, with an extremely unhealthy profit structure. On the demand side, the domestic off - season is deepening, spot premiums are falling from high levels, but due to the internal - external price difference, increased domestic exports lead to a weak expectation of inventory accumulation. The LME squeeze problem has eased, Asian warehouse inventories have increased, and premiums have declined [4][86]. - Copper prices saw a significant reduction in positions and a decline this week, indicating that most of the previous active long positions in the domestic market have left. There is still a lack of active short - selling power. It is necessary to monitor changes in LME copper. With insufficient domestic short - selling power and during the tariff game phase, macro expectations may continue to face pressure. Keep an eye on the progress of US copper tariffs. As copper prices closed in the negative on the weekly chart, continue to hold the strategy of selling near - month CALL options and buying far - month PUT options [4][86]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Macro - level - In June, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose 0.7% month - on - month to 49%, while France's manufacturing PMI declined 2% month - on - month to 47.8%. The US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52%, unchanged from the previous month. In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New orders and new export orders improved slightly in June, and the service industry PMI gradually stabilized [12]. - The high tariff rate and fast implementation ended the export - to - US arbitrage path. The market profited from the short - term price difference decline of COMEX copper and LME copper. The implementation of the US copper tariff increased price pressure on LME copper, and inventory began to show an inflection point [4][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - According to ICSG data, in December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, global copper concentrate production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. The 2024 market had a surplus of 301,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 52,000 tons in the previous year. In April 2025, global copper mine production was 1.909 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. From January to April 2025, cumulative copper mine production was 7.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. In April 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, similar to the surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import of copper ores and concentrates was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, copper concentrate data were generally lower than market expectations. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [27]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On July 11, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - $43.79 per dry ton, an increase of $0.46 per dry ton from the previous period. The CSPT group decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2025. In 2025, the long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. Refined Copper Production - In June 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 3,400 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.3%, and increased by 12.93% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production increased by 674,700 tons, an increase of 11.40%. In July 2025, it is expected that national electrolytic copper production will further increase, with a month - on - month increase of 15,500 tons (1.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 122,200 tons (11.88%) [37]. Refined Copper Import Volume - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, imports were 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, exports were 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In May 2025, China imported 292,700 tons of electrolytic copper, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. The cumulative import in 2024 was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In May 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 185,200 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 962,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [47]. Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference - This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 25.45%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 3.05 percentage points year - on - year. The average price difference between scrap and refined copper rods this week was 991 yuan per ton, a decrease of 558 yuan month - on - month. Due to the decline in copper prices, recycled copper rod enterprises' raw material inventory was relatively abundant, and the number of operating days increased. The weekly finished product inventory of recycled copper rod sample enterprises was 5,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 250 tons. The decline in copper prices significantly narrowed the price difference between scrap and refined copper rods, eliminating the economic benefits of recycled copper rods. Cable enterprises preferred to purchase refined copper rods from traders, and recycled copper rod enterprises faced increasing sales pressure [51]. Consumption - end - In 2024, from January to December, power source cumulative investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to May, power source cumulative investment was 257.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, and grid investment was 203.986 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [52]. - In 2024, in December, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. In 2025, from January to May, the air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The monthly production declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate slowed down, indicating that the industry entered the off - season [56]. - From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. From January to June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 12.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. Among them, domestic sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 6.693 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.4% and 26.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.8% of total automobile sales. From January to June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of total automobile sales [61]. - In 2024, from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [63]. Other Elements Inventory - As of July 11, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 424,300 tons, a weekly increase of 23,500 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 108,700 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 13,200 tons to 234,200 tons. Domestic exports to LME led to overall inventory accumulation. As of July 10, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 78,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from last week [68]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of July 8, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 39,604 lots, a weekly increase of 5,914 lots. The non - commercial long position was 80,843 lots, a weekly increase of 6,218 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 41,239 lots, a weekly increase of 304 lots. The speculation of a 50% tax rate on COMEX copper prices led to a rapid increase, with long - position holders adding positions and the net long position expanding [70]. Premium and Discount - As of July 11, the LME copper spot was at a discount of $21.57 per ton. The concern about LME copper squeeze was relieved, and the spot premium quickly changed to a discount pattern. With the increase in Asian warehouse inventories, the LME squeeze crisis eased. This week, copper prices declined, and downstream procurement sentiment improved, but due to the seasonal off - season, downstream orders improved limitedly. Shanghai's inventory decreased slightly this week, mainly consuming previously imported low - price goods. Next week, approaching the delivery date, holders will actively sell goods under the high monthly spread, and the SHFE copper spot discount will expand, but the discount range is expected to be limited. After the contract change, holders will start quoting at a premium of 150 - 200 yuan per ton, but actual transactions are unlikely to improve significantly [80]. Basis - As of July 11, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Grade 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 400 yuan per ton [82].