Group 1: Upstream Resources - Crude oil prices continue to rise significantly, with Brent crude futures settling at $112.2 per barrel, up 8.8% from the previous period as of March 20 [7] - Non-ferrous metal prices have declined sharply, with COMEX gold, LME copper, and LME aluminum prices down 9.6%, 6.7%, and 6.5% respectively [10] - Coal prices have shown slight fluctuations, with a 0.8% increase, reflecting weak demand during the off-season [8] Group 2: Midstream Cycles and Manufacturing - Emerging technology sectors continue to experience high growth, with PCB exports in January-February 2026 increasing by 28.3% year-on-year, reaching $4.55 billion [19] - The electronic industry in Taiwan reported a revenue growth of 29.4% year-on-year during the same period, driven by strong demand in IC manufacturing and storage segments [19] - Construction demand remains weak, with steel prices showing slight fluctuations and a marginal increase in building material prices due to rising costs [21][28] Group 3: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 5.7% in transaction volume across 30 major cities [32] - The food and beverage sector is facing weak demand, with live pig prices down 1.1% week-on-week, while agricultural commodity prices have shown slight increases [33] - Service consumption remains strong, with a 14.9% year-on-year increase in domestic movie box office revenue and a 90.3% increase in Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index [40] Group 4: Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger travel demand has increased, with major cities reporting a 3.0% year-on-year rise in subway passenger volume [48] - Road freight demand has shown a marginal increase of 3.4%, while express delivery volumes have decreased slightly [50] - Port throughput has improved, with cargo and container throughput increasing by 0.8% and 3.7% respectively [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week from 02.23 - 03.01, the mid - level economic performance showed differentiation. The rising Middle - East situation led to significant price increases in cyclical resources such as crude oil, chemical, shipping, and non - ferrous metals. The construction industry's resumption of work was stronger than the same period in the lunar calendar, possibly supported by the warming of real - estate sales and the early implementation of fiscal funds in 2026. The AI computing power industry's prosperity center continued to move up, while the traditional commodity consumption was under pressure [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Resources: Soaring Crude Oil Chain Prices and Significant Increase in Non - ferrous Metal Prices - **Oil and Chemicals & Shipping**: Due to the escalating Middle - East situation after the US - Israel air strike on Iran on 2026.02.28, the threat to the safety of crude oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz led to significant disruptions in global crude oil supply. As of 03.03, the Brent crude oil futures settlement price increased by 12.3% compared to 02.27, and the domestic chemical product price index rose by 4.8%. The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) and refined oil transportation index (BCTI) increased by 43.9% and 54.0% respectively [7]. - **Coal**: As of 02.28, the ex - works price of Qinhuangdao Port's Q5500 steam coal was 751 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.0%. The increase was mainly due to the uncertainty of coal supply from Indonesia and the rise in international coal prices [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: As of 02.27, the COMEX gold price increased by 3.3% week - on - week. Industrial metals such as SHFE copper and aluminum also saw price increases. Small metals like black tungsten, molybdenum, and cobalt rose by 6.5%, 2.1%, and 13.1% respectively, driven by AI capital expenditure [10]. 3.2 Technology & Manufacturing: Increasing Growth Rate of Technology Hardware Prosperity and Fast Post - Festival Resumption of Work - **Electronics**: Driven by AI infrastructure demand, the prosperity of technology hardware continued to grow. In January 2026, South Korea's semiconductor export volume (TTM) reached 183.82 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 28.8%, and the export volume of memory chips reached 128.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 44.1%. As of 02.27, the average prices of DRAM DDR4 and DDR5 increased by 1.9% and 3.8% respectively [20]. - **Infrastructure and Real - Estate Chain**: Steel prices fluctuated slightly. As of 02.28, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed by - 0.3% and + 0.6% week - on - week respectively. The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 25.5% compared to the same period in the lunar calendar. As of 02.27, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.6% week - on - week and 2.2% compared to the same period in the lunar calendar. Building material prices fluctuated slightly. As of 02.26, the average price of domestic float glass increased by 1.2% week - on - week, and the inventory increased by 26.5% compared to the same period in 2025. As of 02.28, the national cement price index decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate increased by 9.0% compared to the same period in 2025 [23][27]. 3.3 Downstream Consumption: Strong Post - Festival Real - Estate Sales and High Tourism Prosperity Year - on - Year - **Real - Estate**: As of the week of 03.01, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 55.4% compared to the same period in the lunar calendar of 2025. The second - hand housing transaction area of 10 key cities increased by 14.5% compared to the same period in 2025. After the new policy in Shanghai, the real - estate sales consultation heat increased significantly [31]. - **Durable Goods**: In March 2026, the production plan of household air conditioners decreased by 6.1% year - on - year. The domestic sales and export production plans decreased by 1.5% and 7.1% respectively. In February 2026, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% [39]. - **Beverages**: As of 2026.02.28, the wholesale reference prices of original and bulk Feitian Moutai increased by 0.3% and 0.0% respectively. As of 2026.02.27, the retail prices of Chinese milk and yogurt increased by 0.1% and 0.0% respectively [41]. - **Pigs & Planting**: As of 03.01, the national price of live pigs (inner ternary) decreased by 6.8% week - on - week. As of 02.28, the domestic spot weekly average prices of soybeans, soybean meal, wheat, and corn increased by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.1%, and 0.5% respectively. The weekly average prices of CBOT soybeans and corn increased by 1.1% and 3.7% respectively [43]. - **Service Consumption**: As of the week of 03.01, the domestic movie box office decreased by 63.1% compared to the same period in the lunar calendar of 2025. From 02.22 - 02.28, the average congestion degree of Shanghai Disneyland was 75%, a 32.3% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [51]. 3.4 Logistics and People Flow: Significantly Increased Freight Prosperity Compared to the Same Period in the Lunar Calendar and Post - Festival Recovery of Port Throughput - **Passenger Transport**: As of the week of 03.01, the subway passenger volume of 10 major cities increased by 77.0% week - on - week and decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The Baidu Migration Scale Index increased by 7.4% week - on - week and 130.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights increased by 3.9% week - on - week and 21.6% year - on - year, and 27.0% compared to the same period in 2019. The number of international flights decreased by 1.4% week - on - week and recovered to 93.8% of the same period in 2019 [53]. - **Freight Transport**: As of the week of 03.01, the national highway and railway freight volumes increased by 26.0% and 3.2% respectively compared to the same period in the lunar calendar of 2025. The national postal express pick - up and delivery volumes increased by 21.9% and 32.8% respectively compared to the same period in 2025 [59]. - **Maritime Transport**: As of 02.27, the SCFI index increased by 6.5% compared to before the festival. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 2.7% compared to before the festival. As of the week of 03.01, the cargo throughput and container throughput of Chinese ports increased by 25.5% and 12.3% respectively compared to the same period in the lunar calendar of 2025 [61].

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales have seen an expanded decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.4% in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities as of November 9 [7] - In October 2025, nationwide retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the second half of 2024 and tightening of trade-in policies [8] - The price of live pigs has turned downward, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.1%, while domestic staple grain prices continue to rise [10] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to maintain high prosperity, with the average spot price of DRAM memory reaching $3.336, up 2.2% week-on-week, driven by AI infrastructure demand [20] - Semiconductor sales in China reached $18.69 billion in September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [22] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 13.0% week-on-week as of November 7 [45] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have surged, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port reaching 817 yuan per ton, up 6.1% week-on-week, marking a new high for the year [46] - International metal prices have declined, with SHFE copper and aluminum prices at 85,900 yuan and 21,600 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.2% and an increase of 1.5% [50] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger demand has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with subway passenger volume down 1.9% week-on-week but up 3.4% year-on-year [59] - Freight logistics demand has also declined, with nationwide highway truck traffic down 2.1% week-on-week, while railway freight volume increased by 3.9% [62] - Port throughput has shown fluctuations, with container throughput at 6.809 million TEUs, up 1.4% week-on-week [65]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery of domestic cyclical product prices and the improvement in service consumption, indicating a positive trend in the overall economic environment [2][3]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing growth rates of 68.8%, 21.7%, and -19.9% respectively [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slowdown in price competition and a slight recovery in sales growth [3]. - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in movie box office revenues, which surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand showed marginal improvement, with steel and glass prices slightly rising, and cement prices stabilizing [4]. - Manufacturing activity improved, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical sectors, and stable hiring intentions among companies [4]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices increased by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [4]. - Industrial metal prices faced pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve following a rate cut [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand improved, with a month-on-month increase in air transport demand [4]. - National highway freight traffic and railway freight volume rose by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [4].

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with a 2.3% year-on-year increase in transaction area for 30 major cities as of September 14, 2025. First-tier cities saw a significant increase of 13.2% in transaction area [7][10] - Durable goods consumption is declining, with a 10.0% year-on-year decrease in retail sales of passenger cars during the first week of September. Air conditioning production for both domestic and international markets also saw declines of 6.3% and 16.6% respectively [8][12] Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand remains weak, but manufacturing activity has improved. The operating rate for manufacturing increased significantly, with a 6.8% rise in the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants [30][34] - The price of rebar has decreased by 1.5%, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has increased by 3.5%, indicating a rebound in steel production despite weak demand [16][17] Upstream Resources - Coal prices remain resilient, with a slight increase of 0.1% in the price of thermal coal as of September 12, 2025. Supply expectations are tight due to ongoing industry consolidation [35][36] - Prices for non-ferrous metals and crude oil have risen, with gold prices increasing by 0.9% and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.3% due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [37][38] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Long-distance passenger transport is experiencing seasonal declines, while urban transport activity has increased. Subway ridership in major cities rose by 3.6% week-on-week [42][48] - Freight transport shows marginal improvement, with highway truck traffic increasing by 6.2% and railway freight volume rising by 1.8% [53][54] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has increased by 7.4%, indicating a significant rise in dry bulk shipping rates [55][57]

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in cyclical commodity prices, with steel, cement, and industrial metal prices declining, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The film market shows significant improvement due to new releases during the summer season [2][13][31]. - The construction demand remains weak, leading to a decrease in steel prices and continued pressure on cement prices. However, float glass prices have seen an increase [5][15][42]. - The automotive and chemical industries are experiencing a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, while the oil asphalt sector shows a contrary increase, indicating resilience in infrastructure demand [2][5][15]. Group 2 - Real estate sales are still struggling, with a year-on-year decline of 20.8% in transaction area across 30 major cities. The decline is more pronounced in third-tier cities, with a drop of 37.0% [5][18]. - The average daily retail of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidies. However, dealer inventory pressure has slightly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [5][21]. - The film box office revenue saw a significant increase of 49.0% week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, driven by the release of popular new films during the summer [5][31]. Group 3 - In the manufacturing sector, there is a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, while oil asphalt production has increased, reflecting ongoing infrastructure demand [15][48]. - The prices of industrial metals have declined due to weak demand and the impact of tariffs on copper, with copper and aluminum prices dropping by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [57][58]. - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, while export logistics show signs of decline, with highway freight traffic down by 0.9% and railway freight volume down by 1.4% [66][70].

Group 1: Core Insights - Passenger car sales continue to show strong performance, driven by favorable policies, with retail sales increasing by 13.7% year-on-year in May [2] - Real estate sales are showing marginal improvement, with transaction area in 30 major cities up by 4.1% year-on-year, particularly in first-tier cities which saw a 13.5% increase [2] - Manufacturing sector shows a slight improvement in operating rates, with increased hiring intentions among companies [3] Group 2: Industry Performance - Construction demand remains weak, impacting the building materials sector, with steel prices significantly declining while cement prices have seen a slight rebound due to self-discipline production limits in some regions [3] - The logistics sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with long-distance passenger demand declining, but logistics activity improving, particularly driven by e-commerce demand during the "618" shopping festival [4] - Dry bulk shipping rates have significantly increased due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although domestic port throughput has decreased [1][4]

Group 1: Consumer Trends - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel increased significantly, with the number of travelers and spending up by 6.4% and 8.0% year-on-year, respectively, recovering to 161.0% and 153.1% of 2019 levels, although the average spending per traveler was only at 95.1% of 2019 levels, indicating a need for improvement in consumer spending willingness [2][3] - The performance of the entertainment sector, including live performances and movies, showed a decline, with the number of performances down by 2.52% year-on-year and daily box office revenue for films down by 51.0% compared to the previous year [2][3] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New home sales saw a significant year-on-year increase of 13.7% in 30 major cities, with first-tier and second-tier cities experiencing increases of 24.4% and 14.0%, respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 2.7% [3] - The sales growth of new homes turned positive, while the growth rate of second-hand home sales decreased on a month-on-month basis [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry - Passenger car sales continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 7% driven by ongoing policy support and new car launches, although daily sales were below previous expectations, and dealer inventory pressure increased [3] Group 4: Manufacturing and Construction - The construction demand in the real estate sector remained weak, leading to a decline in the prices of construction materials, with the cement price index dropping by 1.9% week-on-week [4] - Manufacturing activity showed signs of seasonal slowdown as the holiday approached, with a significant increase in job postings, indicating a strong hiring intention despite the overall slowdown in manufacturing operations [4]