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中观景气8月第2期:周期品价格分化,电影景气显著改善
Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in cyclical commodity prices, with steel, cement, and industrial metal prices declining, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The film market shows significant improvement due to new releases during the summer season [2][13][31]. - The construction demand remains weak, leading to a decrease in steel prices and continued pressure on cement prices. However, float glass prices have seen an increase [5][15][42]. - The automotive and chemical industries are experiencing a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, while the oil asphalt sector shows a contrary increase, indicating resilience in infrastructure demand [2][5][15]. Group 2 - Real estate sales are still struggling, with a year-on-year decline of 20.8% in transaction area across 30 major cities. The decline is more pronounced in third-tier cities, with a drop of 37.0% [5][18]. - The average daily retail of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidies. However, dealer inventory pressure has slightly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [5][21]. - The film box office revenue saw a significant increase of 49.0% week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, driven by the release of popular new films during the summer [5][31]. Group 3 - In the manufacturing sector, there is a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, while oil asphalt production has increased, reflecting ongoing infrastructure demand [15][48]. - The prices of industrial metals have declined due to weak demand and the impact of tariffs on copper, with copper and aluminum prices dropping by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [57][58]. - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, while export logistics show signs of decline, with highway freight traffic down by 0.9% and railway freight volume down by 1.4% [66][70].
国泰海通|策略:乘用车销量显著增长,制造业开工改善——中观景气6月第3期
Group 1: Core Insights - Passenger car sales continue to show strong performance, driven by favorable policies, with retail sales increasing by 13.7% year-on-year in May [2] - Real estate sales are showing marginal improvement, with transaction area in 30 major cities up by 4.1% year-on-year, particularly in first-tier cities which saw a 13.5% increase [2] - Manufacturing sector shows a slight improvement in operating rates, with increased hiring intentions among companies [3] Group 2: Industry Performance - Construction demand remains weak, impacting the building materials sector, with steel prices significantly declining while cement prices have seen a slight rebound due to self-discipline production limits in some regions [3] - The logistics sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with long-distance passenger demand declining, but logistics activity improving, particularly driven by e-commerce demand during the "618" shopping festival [4] - Dry bulk shipping rates have significantly increased due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although domestic port throughput has decreased [1][4]
国泰海通|策略:五一消费量增价稳,新房销售增速转正——中观景气观察5月第1期
报告导读: 五一消费量增价稳,出行人次与收入同比正增,但客单价仍待改善;地产销售 同比转正,但建筑链资源品需求与价格仍磨底,制造业活动环比降温。 五一消费量增价稳,新房销售增速回正。 上周(04.28-05.04)中观景气表现分化,值得关注:1)五一 假期旅游出行景气同比显著增长,但旅游客单价不及19年同期,演出、电影景气同比下滑,显示居民消费 能力仍待进一步改善。2)新房销售增速显著改善,国内建筑链资源品需求与价格仍偏弱,基建房建需求 仍待释放;3)乘用车销量延续增长,国补政策拉动效果仍在延续,但日均销量低于乘联会预期,且经销 商库存压力有所增大,耐用品景气持续性仍待观察。 本文摘自:2025年5月11日发布的 五一消费量增价稳,新房销售增速转正——中观景气观察5月第1期 方 奕 ,资格证书编号: S0880520120005 张逸飞 ,资格证书编号: S0880524080008 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 五一假期:文旅景气分化,客流同比显著增长。 2025年五一假期(05.01-05.05,下同)文旅消费景气 表现分化,客流运输需求同比显著提升。具体来看:1)旅游:五一国内出游人次和 ...