制造 & 科技：地产建筑需求偏弱，全球半导体销售强劲增长。 1 ）基建地产：地产基建需求持续偏弱拖累建筑施工景气，受益于环保限产的钢铁价格环比上 升，水泥价格环比持续下跌。 2 ）制造业开工：汽车、化工等制造业开工率环比多数回落，或受到反内卷政策的影响。 3 ） TMT ：海外 AI 资本开支需求依 旧强劲， 2025 年 7 月全球半导体销售额同比 +20.6% ，国内 PCB 出口金额同比 +33.0% ，较 6 月小幅提升，出口均价明显改善或因 AI 数据中心需求带 来 PCB 价值量提升。 上游资源：煤价环比回调，黄金价格大幅上涨。 1 ）煤炭：动力煤需求旺季临近尾声，煤价环比 -1.6% ； 2 ）有色：美国 8 月非农大幅走弱，美联储降息 预期回升，支撑黄金价格大幅上涨，国内工业金属价格也小幅上涨。 人流物流：客运需求环比回落，货运物流景气边际下滑。 1 ）客运：暑期结束，客运需求环比明显回落，但同比续增，百度迁徙规模指数环 / 同比 -17.6%/+5.0% ；国内航班执飞架次周环比 -10.5% ，同比 +2.2% ；国际航班执飞架次周环比 -0.1% ，恢复至 2019 年同期 83.3% ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Passenger car sales continue to show strong performance, driven by favorable policies, with retail sales increasing by 13.7% year-on-year in May [2] - Real estate sales are showing marginal improvement, with transaction area in 30 major cities up by 4.1% year-on-year, particularly in first-tier cities which saw a 13.5% increase [2] - Manufacturing sector shows a slight improvement in operating rates, with increased hiring intentions among companies [3] Group 2: Industry Performance - Construction demand remains weak, impacting the building materials sector, with steel prices significantly declining while cement prices have seen a slight rebound due to self-discipline production limits in some regions [3] - The logistics sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with long-distance passenger demand declining, but logistics activity improving, particularly driven by e-commerce demand during the "618" shopping festival [4] - Dry bulk shipping rates have significantly increased due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although domestic port throughput has decreased [1][4]