行业配置建议：赛点2.0 第三阶段攻坚不易，波折难免，重视恒生互联网根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：1）AI 产业革命带 来的算力、存力、电力及应用的科技主线机会，2）内外共振，经济逐步修复，牛市主线风格"强者恒强"，但周期后半段易有所表现，3）赔率思维，即考虑 风格轮动、底部反转的可能性。连续三年跑输但第四年跑赢概率较大的行业有食品饮料、农林牧渔、社会服务、医药生物。AI 产业趋势的进展取决于AI 应 用端和消费端的突破，重视恒生互联网。牛市初期资金更偏好少数高景气赛道，后期资金抱团聚焦主线，新增资金获利难度提升，而周期股又具备低估值、 高贝塔的属性，易随着基本面回暖的深化而发挥较好的业绩弹性，获得增量资金青睐。 短期大盘趋势偏弱, 增量资金入场不明显,市场赚钱效应 涨跌分布 2070 2411 296 245 88 99 87 ୧୫ 56 9 >10% 10~7 5~3 3~0 5~7 7~1 7~5 3~5 0 0~3 涨跌 跌 2519 家 涨 2862 家 跌停 18 家 涨停 65 家 暗盘: 暗盘资金 净流出 2174 家 净流入 2829 家 沿线 He Re E E ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes long-term opportunities with the strategy "蓄力新高" suggesting that the Shanghai Composite Index briefly broke 4000, while the 2026 strategy "奔马资产, 策马逐牛" focuses on embracing "奔马资产" (globally competitive leaders) leading to a revaluation of value [3][10] - The mid-term analysis indicates a potential for market fluctuations towards the end of the year, with a strong market rally observed in the first week of January, confirming previous predictions [3][10] Industry and Sector Analysis - Leading sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals remain core themes, with internal shifts observed, such as a transition from rare earths and precious metals to industrial metals and lithium-cobalt-nickel within non-ferrous metals, and from consumer electronics to storage and semiconductor equipment in electronics [4][14] - The report identifies three key investment directions: 1. Core growth assets, particularly in the Hang Seng Internet sector, benefiting from platform economy support and potential AI catalysts, alongside improvements in US-China relations and passive foreign capital inflow due to RMB appreciation [5][13] 2. Globally competitive assets (奔马 50), which are expected to benefit from global economic recovery, strong policy support, and institutional capital inflow, with a high cost-performance ratio due to trends in AI, high-end manufacturing, and resource supply-side adjustments [5][13] 3. Emerging growth sectors, particularly those related to the "Musk chain," focusing on AI applications and underground transportation, with a bottom-up investment approach in areas like computing power and humanoid robots [5][13] Market Dynamics - The report notes that despite recent volatility, the fundamentals of a long-term bull market remain intact, with market sentiment high and financing balances nearing a ten-year high, indicating a healthy market environment [7][11] - Historical patterns suggest that after a major rally, the market may enter a consolidation phase, but the underlying growth logic remains strong, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [12][14]

Core Insights - The recent adjustment in A-shares is seen as a consolidation phase for the upcoming bull market, with a focus on the recovery of trading activity [1] - The market has experienced a rotation since November, moving through different phases including mainline trends, large-cap value, and sentiment indices [1] - Historical patterns from late 2024 to early 2025 suggest that a decline in trading activity typically precedes a decrease in financing balance, indicating a potential consolidation period ahead [1] Trading Activity - Trading activity has decreased from a high of 12% in October to around 10% recently, indicating a cooling off period [1] - The financing balance is expected to decline following the drop in trading activity, aligning with previous market behaviors observed in earlier phases [1] Industry Allocation - The third phase of the "赛点2.0" (Saidian 2.0) is anticipated to be challenging, with expected fluctuations [1] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of the Hang Seng Internet sector in the current market environment [1]

Market Performance Analysis - The market is experiencing a short-term overheating phase driven by increased trading activity after reaching new highs, with a recommendation for cautious investment strategies [1][4] - Historical data shows that the market typically performs poorly in the days leading up to the National Day holiday, with a median return of -0.81% in the five trading days before the holiday, while the first phase after the holiday shows a strong median return of 2.27% [1][2] Index and Style Performance - Major indices showed weak performance before the holiday, with only the ChiNext Index recording a positive return of 0.34%, while small-cap indices faced the largest declines [2] - Post-holiday, all major indices experienced positive returns, with the ChiNext Index leading in the first phase, followed by a general pullback in the second phase, and a resurgence of small-cap stocks in the third phase [2] - In terms of style indices, only the consumer sector recorded a positive return before the holiday, while all styles saw gains afterward, particularly growth and financial sectors [2] Industrial Profit Trends - Industrial enterprise profits saw a significant year-on-year increase in August, with cumulative profits turning positive, indicating a recovery in the industrial sector [3] - The profit margins in mining, manufacturing, and public utilities showed slight increases compared to the previous month, reflecting a positive trend in industrial profitability [3] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The investment focus should be on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The core factor for investing in the consumer sector is valuation, with current low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy support indicating a potential recovery phase, albeit weak [4]

Domestic Economic Insights - The Political Bureau of the CPC held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the need to complete the annual economic and social development goals and prepare for the 15th Five-Year Plan[1] - The manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3%, down from 49.7% in June, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[12] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in service sector activity[14] Industrial Performance - Industrial profits in June showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1%[21] - The inventory of industrial enterprises slightly decreased, with finished goods inventory at 6.6 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[21] - The profit margin for the mining industry was 16.95%, while the manufacturing sector's profit margin remained low at 4.46%[23] International Economic Context - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[37] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not change interest rates in July, with Chairman Powell indicating no decisions have been made regarding September's rates[37] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Focus on three main investment directions: technology AI+, consumer stock valuation recovery, and the rise of undervalued dividends[4] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, which may experience increased volatility[4]

Domestic Economic Overview - In June, fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with total revenue year-on-year remaining flat at -0.31%, compared to a previous value of 0.13%. Tax revenue increased by 1.04% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue continued to decline by -3.7% [8][9] - Government fund revenue saw a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 20.81% in June, compared to a previous decline of -8.15%. The land transaction revenue also rebounded, reporting a year-on-year increase of 21.89% [15][16] - The industrial production index showed a decline, with specific sectors like methanol and Shandong's independent refineries recovering, while others like pure alkali and polyester filament saw a downturn [20][21] International Conflict Tracking - The third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place in Turkey, with both sides discussing humanitarian agreements and potential future meetings [24] - In the Middle East, Israel confirmed that ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have not collapsed, while Hamas officials expressed readiness to resume talks [26][27] Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the "赛点 2.0" phase, indicating that the market is experiencing overheating and increased volatility. It suggests focusing on three main investment directions: 1) Technology AI+ breakthroughs, 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [33] - The report highlights that the core factor for investment in the consumer sector is valuation, especially in the context of low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts [33]