华泰证券在分析近期工作会议的政策要点时指出：2026年经济增长目标将更注重"实实在在、没有水分 的增长"，财政资源预计向"投资于人"和"服务消费"领域倾斜。反内卷与推进全国统一大市场建设，或 将成为2026年政策层面的重要方向。 大消费相关的ETF也有望受益扩内需政策的落地，可关注旅游ETF（562510.SH）和食品饮料ETF （515170.SH），前者重点配置"服务消费"类资产，后者侧重布局传统食品饮料龙头企业。截至2025年 12月19日，旅游ETF（562510.SH）持有中国中免的权重为13.86%，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）持有贵 州茅台的权重为17.52%。 12月19日（周五），扩大内需政策效应持续释放，大消费板块已连续5个交易日表现强劲，其中商贸零 售行业走势尤为突出。东百集团再次涨停，年内涨幅累计超过174%；中央商场也走出2连板。 大消费板块内部也出现轮动迹象，部分白马股迎来低位反弹：中国中免午后持续强势，最新涨超7%； 贵州茅台三季度分红于今日实施，每10股派发现金红利239.57元，共计派发逾300亿元，分红规模继续 位居市场首位。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that despite a decline in fixed asset investment growth, key sectors continue to see investment growth, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and upgrading industries [1][2][3] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year, while project investment excluding real estate development increased by 0.8% [1] - Investment in emerging sectors showed strong growth, with general equipment manufacturing investment rising by 8.9% year-on-year, and investments in automotive manufacturing and transportation equipment manufacturing increasing by 15.3% and 22.4%, respectively [1] - Investment in renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower grew by 7.4%, while information service industry investment surged by 29.6% [1] Group 3 - Traditional industries also saw investment expansion, with petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, as well as chemical fiber manufacturing, growing by 23.6% and 12.1%, respectively [2] - The rapid development of online retail has led to increased investments in related services, with accommodation and catering, as well as wholesale and retail industries, both growing by 7.1% [2] - Investment in public infrastructure increased, with power and heat production and supply, as well as water transportation, growing by 12.5% and 8.9%, respectively [2] Group 4 - The government is focusing on enhancing investment efficiency and stimulating private investment, with measures introduced to promote investment growth [3] - Future investment potential remains significant, with a need for continued investment in education, healthcare, housing, and public services to meet the needs of the population [3] - The government aims to optimize investment structure, improve the investment environment, and further stimulate private investment to promote high-quality economic development [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly trends of non - ferrous metals, analyzing the price movements, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks of various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It suggests different trading strategies based on each metal's characteristics, like holding copper long - positions with certain stop - profit measures, being cautious about high - position risks in tin, etc. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Price and Market**: Last week, both domestic and foreign copper prices hit record highs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. The spot signal shows that the inflection point of copper price is not obvious. [1] - **Supply**: In December, there is a certain production rush expectation, with an estimated monthly output increase of 5.57 tons. Domestic smelters may choose to reduce the production of 106 primary copper concentrates during equipment shutdown. [1] - **Outlook**: The LME copper price is at a high level, and the spot premium has decreased. The market is mainly trading based on expectations. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices may pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the copper price at a record high may correct. Long - positions can be held along the M5 moving average, and partial active profit - taking can be considered. [1] 3.2 Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, with no long - term production reduction. In December and January, 50,000 tons and 110,000 tons of exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out respectively. [1] - **Demand**: The downstream aluminum processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% month - on - month. In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 14.8% year - on - year but increased by 66,800 tons month - on - month. [1] - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 985,000 tons, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 7000 tons to 121,000 tons. The inventory is higher than in previous years. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China have widened. [1] - **Outlook**: Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of silver and copper prices has driven up aluminum prices. The medium - term fluctuating and strengthening trend continues, but in the short term, market sentiment may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see. [1] 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Market**: Last week, SHFE zinc rose 3.92% and strongly broke through the annual line, following the external market trend. The internal - external price difference is oscillating at a high level. [1] - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased to 55,400 tons. Overseas smelters' production resumption expectations are insufficient. The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and domestic smelter maintenance is expanding. The zinc ingot export window is open, and downstream demand is stable. [1] - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the expected investment in underground pipeline network construction and renovation is about 5 trillion, and galvanized pipe consumption is expected to be strong in 2026. [1] - **Outlook**: Supported by tight ore supply, SHFE zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound. After breaking through the annual line, it is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark. [1] 3.4 Lead - **Price and Market**: Last week, the expectation of smelter production reduction and increased downstream bargain - hunting purchases supported the market rebound. The SHFE lead main contract rose 1.7%, and LME lead rebounded to the 20 - day moving average and then faced pressure. [1] - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 243,000 tons, still relatively high. The supply of lead concentrates is in short supply, and the recycling volume of waste batteries has decreased. The market supply of lead ingots is tight. [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery production increased by 1.07 percentage points to 24.46% week - on - week. The consumer market has both positive and negative factors, with insufficient incremental expectations. [1] - **Outlook**: Constrained by cost and consumption, SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton. There may be short - term price increases due to capital movements. [1] 3.5 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: SHFE nickel rebounded and traded sideways at a high level, with light market trading and relatively low positions. SHFE stainless steel also rebounded, but overall trading was sluggish. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In the context of repeated macro - expectations, the willingness of both long and short sides to compete has decreased. Although stainless steel mills have frequently announced production cuts, the actual production reduction in November was insufficient. Downstream demand confidence is lacking. [1] - **Inventory**: Pure nickel inventory increased by 1500 tons to 57,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 997,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: Given high - level inventory and volatile macro - factors, short - selling at high levels is more reasonable. [1] 3.6 Tin - **Price and Market**: Funds have pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and SHFE tin weighted price reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The short - term price fluctuations have increased. [1] - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin exports in November decreased. The situation in the Congo is uncertain. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December. The real - world supply of tin ore is tight, and the cost of recycled materials is fluctuating. [1] - **Demand**: There are no bright spots in traditional fields, and the demand highlight is high - end semiconductor products. Domestic spot trading has deepened, and social inventory has increased. [1] - **Outlook**: In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, the probability of an increase in supply is high, and the recovery speed may be faster than demand. Attention should be paid to high - position risks. [1] 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: Last week, lithium carbonate futures adjusted, with active short - selling in the market. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has slightly corrected. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall demand remains strong. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to perform well. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand. The overall inventory of downstream battery and material factories is flat or slightly reduced. [1] - **Inventory**: The total market inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 113,600 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 21,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1700 tons to 44,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply from a high level, with large market differences. The fundamentals are generally strong, and the short - side is relatively tight. [1] 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The main contract of industrial silicon S12601 showed a weak downward trend in the range of 8900 - 9030 yuan/ton this week. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang has dropped to 9000 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to slightly decline to 396,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%. Some enterprises plan to slightly reduce the supply volume. [1] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 800 tons to 558,000 tons, with an increase in both general and delivery warehouses. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. The inventory reduction at the end of the year is still under pressure. If the actual production reduction of local factories is limited, the price may further decline. [1] 3.9 Polysilicon - **Price**: Last week, the main contract of polysilicon reached a high of 59,200 yuan/ton due to the expectation of warehouse receipts. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress bullish sentiment. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The output in November was 114,600 tons, lower than expected. In December, it is expected to slightly decline. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises have reduced production. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 291,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may still be strong after a brief negative impact if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected. [1]

Core Points - The event "Warm-hearted Consumption Promotion for Workers" was launched in Yanchi County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, aimed at boosting local consumption and supporting workers [1][3] - The initiative is a collaboration between the local trade union and the Industrial Information and Commerce Bureau, focusing on enhancing digital services for trade unions and promoting high-quality economic development [3] Group 1 - The event was attended by over 1,000 participants, including local officials, trade union representatives, and business representatives [3] - Merchants made quality service commitments, and the process for redeeming consumption vouchers was demonstrated on-site [3] - The atmosphere was lively, with many workers purchasing products and enjoying significant discounts [3] Group 2 - The consumption promotion will last for 40 days and is facilitated through the "Workers' Home" APP, allowing union members to quickly access electronic vouchers across seven categories, including supermarkets and dining [5] - A "welfare amplification" mechanism was introduced, providing exclusive electronic vouchers for disadvantaged workers, which can be used individually or combined with other benefits [5]

Group 1: Credit and Financing Trends - In August, the growth rate of RMB loans decreased to 6.8% from the previous 6.9%[1] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.8% year-on-year, down from 9.0% previously, ending an upward trend[1] - Government bonds contributed approximately 1.30 percentage points to the increase in social financing, while RMB loans had a negative contribution of about -0.32 percentage points[1] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Market Impact - M1 growth rose to 6.0%, while M2 remained stable at 8.8%, narrowing the gap between M1 and M2 growth rates to -2.8%[2] - Household deposits continued to shift towards non-bank financial institutions, with household deposit growth declining[2] - The impact of monetary flow on capital markets is influenced by various factors, including employment expectations and asset price forecasts[3] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations could impact the market[4] - The effectiveness and timing of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets will be crucial for future loan growth[3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend in August, with major indices rising significantly, including the Shanghai Composite Index which closed at 3,883.56 points, up 8.69% from the end of July [2][12] - The market sentiment improved, driven by positive signals from the political bureau meeting and better-than-expected economic data, leading to increased investor confidence [8][12] - The liquidity in the A-share market improved, with the total trading volume rising and new equity fund subscriptions increasing by 7.41% [24][28] Industry Performance - All 31 Shenwan first-level industries experienced gains in August, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a 25.40% increase [13][42] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector saw significant capital inflows, reflecting heightened investor interest in technology growth opportunities [3][32] - The healthcare and machinery sectors also attracted market attention, indicating a broad recovery in various industry segments [3][32] Valuation Levels - As of August 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Sci-Tech 50 index reached a historical percentile of 92.84%, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical data [41] - Most Shenwan first-level industries showed rising valuations, with 15 industries exceeding the historical 50th percentile in terms of PE ratios [42][44] Policy Analysis - The government emphasized the importance of domestic circulation and the implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand, which is expected to support economic growth and industry performance [46][48] - Recent policies aimed at enhancing financial support for new industrialization and promoting consumption upgrades are likely to benefit various sectors, particularly those aligned with technological innovation and sustainable development [46][48]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Breakdown - The production index stands at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, while the new orders index is at 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in market demand [2] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the employment index is at 48.0%, which has increased by 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, suggesting stable supply chain conditions [1] Group 2: Price and Demand Trends - The price index has risen, with the main raw materials purchasing price index at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, and the factory price index at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - Large enterprises maintain expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, and their production and new orders indices are at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, both remaining in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The production activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [2] - The ongoing implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as urban renewal and consumption subsidies, is expected to support steady recovery in investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange management authority indicates a net inflow of foreign capital into domestic stocks and a positive trend in foreign investment in Chinese assets, reflecting resilience in China's foreign trade and overall economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Inflows - In April, foreign capital investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1]. - Non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, experienced a net inflow of $17.3 billion in cross-border funds in April [1]. - Foreign investment in domestic bonds increased by $10.9 billion in April, maintaining a high level of interest in Chinese assets [1]. Group 2: Foreign Trade and Economic Indicators - China's foreign trade showed resilience, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in goods trade, sustaining a high scale [1]. - The foreign exchange market demonstrated stability, with bank settlements and sales increasing by 12.8% and 13.9% month-on-month, respectively [2]. - The settlement rate for foreign exchange rose to 64.4%, up 6.9 percentage points, while the purchase rate increased to 65.4%, up 1.0 percentage point [2]. Group 3: Policy and Market Confidence - Recent policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and supporting the economy are expected to bolster market confidence and stabilize the foreign exchange market [2]. - The central government's measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are designed to enhance support for the real economy [2]. - Progress in high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. is anticipated to contribute to a healthier and more stable bilateral trade relationship [2].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China shows signs of recovery with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.7% in June, marking the highest level in three months and indicating a broadening of manufacturing activity [1][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, reflecting strong internal economic momentum [1]. - The production index reached 51.0%, and the new orders index rose to 50.2%, indicating a significant acceleration in manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3]. - The procurement index surged to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting enhanced purchasing willingness among enterprises [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors all recorded PMIs above 50%, indicating continuous expansion for two consecutive months [4]. - The equipment manufacturing sector led with a PMI of 51.4%, while high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors had PMIs of 50.9% and 50.4%, respectively, showcasing robust growth in production and new orders [4]. - The high-energy consumption sector's PMI improved to 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and a shift towards greener practices [5]. Group 3: Enterprise Size Impact - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]. - Medium-sized enterprises saw a notable recovery with a PMI of 48.6%, increasing by 1.1 percentage points after two months of weak performance [6]. - The overall business activity index for the non-manufacturing sector was 50.5%, indicating a general acceleration in production and operational activities [6].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices opened significantly higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.38% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.15% [1] - The consumer sector showed strong performance, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index opening up by 1.66% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) opened higher and was up by 1.47% at the time of reporting, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Techtronic Industries (over 5% increase) and Haier Smart Home, Geely Automobile, and others (over 3% increase) [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a new policy to establish a service consumption and elderly care relending program, with a total quota of 500 billion RMB and an interest rate of 1.5% [2] - China Galaxy Securities indicated that as the impact of U.S. tariff policies diminishes, investor risk appetite is gradually recovering, and the implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support stable earnings growth in the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Current valuations in the Hong Kong stock market are at historically low levels, suggesting that there is still significant investment value in the medium to long term [2]