来源：策略家张伟 黄金最近一直维持高位震荡的走势，并未出现破位继续拉升，或者跌破强支撑继续下行的走势，为何黄金会在一波大涨之后要始终保持在高位震荡运行。 黄金下一步会怎么样是关键？依然需要关注消息面给黄金带来突破性的走势，如果没有突破性的走势，黄金将会继续保持高位震荡。 美国非农就业数据，已经有两个月的没有公布了，虽然美国政府已经正常开门了，但是很多数据总感觉有继续造假的嫌疑，所以市场也很谨慎。 本周重点关注周四美联储利率决议，如果继续降息，将会利空美元，利多黄金。 黄金市场，似乎利多的消息面慢慢被释放殆尽，而且中东战火停止了，俄乌战场似乎也在谈停战细节，如果战争停止不确定的因素消除了，还有什么会利多 黄金，那就是美联储降息，以及未来可能会出现的危机，是什么危机没有人知道，但是我隐约感觉全世界进入萧侨的时代有望来临，没有技术革命的突破， 大家都进入到了卷的格局当中不是舍好事情。 资金是推动资产价格上涨主要原因，黄金这个资金池可能是近两年吸引资金最多的地方，资金没有好去处，只能去这个地方，这就是黄金为什么暴涨之后始 终能保持在高位运行原因之一。 美元的下行周期不改，黄金要大跌，就需要国际投行的大资金砸盘才可以实 ...

Market Performance - A-shares opened strong on August 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3688.09 points, surpassing the previous high of 3674.4 points from October 8, 2024, and approaching the December 13, 2021 high of 3708.94 points, marking a new three-and-a-half-year high [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.81%, with a market turnover of approximately 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 118.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The military industry sector showed strong performance, with the aerospace technology stock achieving five consecutive daily limit-ups in the past week, and Changcheng Military Industry reaching a new high [3] - The AI industry chain stocks collectively surged, with Guangku Technology hitting a historical high with a 20% increase, while other stocks like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang also reached new highs [3] - The ground equipment sector index surged over 6%, reaching a historical high, with a rapid increase of over 100% in the past two months [6] Notable Stocks - Longcheng Military Industry has seen a continuous rise for 13 trading days, with 7 days of limit-ups and a total increase of over 425% in two months [6] - The securities sector experienced significant movements, with stocks like Changcheng Securities and Guosheng Jinkong hitting the daily limit, and Dongwu Securities approaching the limit, while Zhongyin Securities rose nearly 8% [10] Market Sentiment and Trends - The current market sentiment is driven by liquidity easing and positive policy expectations, with improved investor sentiment stemming from favorable external conditions [11] - The market is characterized by active participation from retail investors and leveraged funds, indicating a collective bullish sentiment [11] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing market rally is supported by long-term capital inflows and a favorable policy environment, contrasting with the volatility seen in 2015 [12]

Market Performance - The A-share market has reached new highs in 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index peaking at 3688.09 points, surpassing the previous high of 3674.4 points from October 8, 2024, and approaching the high of 3708.94 points from December 13, 2021 [2] - At market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.81%. The total market turnover was approximately 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 118.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - Key sectors driving the market include securities, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and computing power, with the securities sector leading the gains [2] - The computing power industry continued to rise, with major stocks such as Xinyisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Industrial Fulian, and Shenghong Technology reaching historical highs [5] - The securities sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Great Wall Securities and Guosheng Financial Holdings experiencing substantial increases [7] Market Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), short-term market improvements may boost the scale of light capital business and the profitability of heavy capital business for brokerages, leading to upward revisions in profit expectations and valuations [9] - The current market rally is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing and positive policy expectations, with improved investor sentiment driven by external factors and foreign capital inflow [10] - Dongwu Securities notes that the current market shows characteristics driven by liquidity, with active participation from ETFs, retail investors, and leveraged funds, indicating a collaborative market environment [11] Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities suggests that compared to high-growth sectors at peak levels, small-cap stocks should adopt a more cautious approach. The focus should be on five strong industries (non-ferrous metals, communications, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military) while avoiding speculative trading [12] - The sustainability of A-shares and H-shares depends on the progress of household financial management and the global liquidity released by a weaker dollar [13] - Dongwu Securities anticipates that, unlike in 2015, the market will not experience significant volatility due to improved capital market positioning and active policy guidance, with a gradual formation of a slow bull trend [13]

人民财讯8月7日电，中金公司（601995）认为，上半年政策冲击下，美国经济已经在6月触底，并在7月 有改善迹象。债务发行潮也已经在7月开启，正在逐渐吸收美元流动性。往前看，关税对通胀的影响可 能开始逐渐显露，叠加美元流动性收紧，可能在8—9月间不利于美股表现，10年期美债利率也可能快速 触底并逐步上行至4.8%附近。但从全年或更长期的角度来看，随着财政对货币干预越发明显，美元流 动性的再度宽松可能是大势所趋，叠加财政对基本面的托底，风险资产长期来看仍具潜力，美元下行周 期也将持续。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy hit a bottom in June and showed signs of improvement in July, following policy shocks in the first half of the year [1] - A wave of debt issuance began in July, gradually absorbing U.S. dollar liquidity [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may start to become evident, and combined with tightening dollar liquidity, this could negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may quickly bottom out and gradually rise to around 4.8% [1] - From a longer-term perspective, increased fiscal intervention alongside monetary policy may lead to a resumption of dollar liquidity easing, supporting the potential of risk assets [1] - The downward cycle of the dollar is expected to continue [1]

Group 1: Tariff War Objectives - The primary goals of the tariff war initiated by President Trump include reducing the U.S. trade deficit, promoting the return of American manufacturing, and ensuring national security by curbing China's development[2] - The U.S. trade deficit with China was approximately $500 billion annually, which Trump viewed as a significant economic issue[22] - The tariff strategy is expected to result in a final average tariff rate slightly above 10%, which is considered acceptable by the market[35] Group 2: Economic Impact - The World Bank revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.7% to 2.3% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs[38] - The cumulative impact of the tariff war on the U.S. economy is estimated to be between 0.3% and 2.1% by 2026, depending on various scenarios[39] - China's economy is projected to face a short-term impact of less than 0.5 percentage points due to the tariff war, with a long-term effect expected to be limited[42] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The tariff war has led to a significant decline in China's exports to the U.S., with a year-on-year drop of 21% in April and 35% in May[43] - The global supply chain is undergoing restructuring, which is expected to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and increase investment demand[5] - The trend of de-globalization is becoming more pronounced, with tariffs creating lasting fractures in global trade relationships[19] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to enter a long-term downtrend, influenced by factors such as trade deficit reduction and rising government debt concerns[4] - Commodity prices are expected to rise in the long term due to the inverse relationship with the dollar cycle and increased demand from major economies shifting towards high-tech manufacturing[5]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing downward pressure on the US dollar due to uncertainties surrounding US government policies, with the dollar index falling to a three-year low as of June 12, 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Affecting the US Dollar - The US dollar is expected to have further downward space in the second half of the year, influenced by weak economic data and geopolitical disturbances [3][4]. - The high-interest rate environment, driven by a decline in US credit expansion, has placed the dollar in a precarious position [4][5]. - The correlation between US residents' net assets and the dollar index remains strong, with stock net assets showing a stronger correlation than housing net assets [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators, such as non-farm payrolls and consumer confidence, have shown weakness, contributing to the decline of the dollar index [6][7]. - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, but revisions to previous months' data indicate a concerning trend in employment growth [6][7]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has rapidly declined, reaching levels comparable to those during the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 [6]. Group 3: Predictions and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant depreciation of the dollar, forecasting a 9% drop in the dollar index over the next year [7]. - The uncertainty surrounding US trade policies is leading to increased bullish positions on Asian currencies against the dollar, with notable increases in positions for the New Taiwan Dollar and South Korean Won [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs expresses a long-term bullish outlook on the Chinese yuan, predicting a 3% appreciation within the next 12 months [9].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.42%[6] - The overall market sentiment improved, with the average daily trading volume increasing to 12088.54 billion CNY, up by 1149.50 billion CNY from the previous week[6] Economic Insights - Recent data indicates that the U.S. economy may have entered a downward cycle, with the "TACO trade" becoming overly popular, leading to a potential disconnection from fundamentals in the U.S. stock market[10] - The report suggests that the long-term decline of the "dollar hegemony system" may continue, with the dollar index hitting a new low since May, reflecting a consensus in the market about this trend[10] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on both technology and dividend sectors, which may provide excess returns in a structurally shifting market[21] - It is anticipated that global funds will continue to allocate more towards Chinese assets, benefiting from the current economic stability and policy reserves in China[18] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, geopolitical events exceeding forecasts, and overseas liquidity easing not meeting expectations[22] Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for companies are categorized as follows: Buy (expected return > 10%), Accumulate (5% to 10%), Hold (-10% to +5%), and Sell (< -10%) relative to the CSI 300 Index over the next six months[23]

Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Economic Impact - The dollar index has weakened significantly, dropping to 98.7, close to its low of 97.9 from April 21, indicating a potential long-term decline in dollar credibility and structural challenges [1][3] - UBS has downgraded the dollar rating to "unattractive" due to the ongoing economic slowdown and debt issues in the U.S., suggesting a higher likelihood of a downtrend in the dollar [3] - Analysts highlight that the divergence between the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields is a sign of a dollar credit crisis, driven by increasing U.S. debt and trade imbalances [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Dollar Decline - Three main factors are identified that may drive the onset of a weak dollar phase: the impact of Trump's policies, the unsustainable "snowball" debt model, and underlying issues in the U.S. economy [4] - The U.S. debt interest payments now account for 19% of fiscal revenue, a historical high, indicating a precarious financial situation that undermines dollar credibility [4] - Historical analysis shows that previous dollar downtrends were associated with significant shifts in global economic order and a decline in U.S. competitiveness [3][5][7] Group 3: Renminbi Strength and Investment Opportunities - The renminbi has shown strong performance against the dollar, with the exchange rate reaching new highs, enhancing the attractiveness of renminbi-denominated assets [2][8] - Goldman Sachs reports that the strengthening of the renminbi is likely to increase foreign capital inflows into Chinese equities, with a positive outlook for corporate earnings [2][8] - Analysts predict that a weak dollar will benefit non-U.S. markets, particularly Chinese assets, as liquidity flows out of the U.S. [8][9]