1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

产业期现日报 证监许可 【2011】1292 (デ「发期货 Z0017002 | 2025年8月8日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | | | | | 品种 | 8月7日 | 8HeB | 涨跌 | 张跃幅 | 单位 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2500.0 | 2562.5 | -62.5 | -2.4% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2560.0 | 2580.0 | -20.0 | -0.8% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4910.0 | 4920.0 | -10.0 | -0.2% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | 5100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2413.0 | 2474.0 | -61.0 | -2.5% | | | SH2601 | 2542.0 | 2576.0 | -34.0 | -1.3% | | | SH基差 | 87.0 | 88 ર | -1.5 | -1.7% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空交织，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 原材料支撑走强，焦炭震荡调整 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 备注： 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：6 月 5 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约报收 789.5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of both coking coal and coke 2509 contracts is fluctuating, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is fluctuating strongly. The overall reference view is weak operation [1]. - For coking coal, due to increased supply disturbances, the futures contract rebounded from a low level, but the supply problem needs actual data verification. If the supply concern is disproven, it is expected to remain at a low level in the medium - and long - term [1][5]. - For coke, although the supply - demand pattern has no obvious change, the uncertainty in the coking coal supply end has increased the market's long - short game. If the expected coking coal supply contraction is disproven, coke will return to a weak pattern [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Performance**: On the night of June 4, the coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted at a low level without further rebound. On June 3, the JM2509 contract once fell to 709 yuan/ton, in a historical low - level range [5]. - **Supply Factors**: In June, China entered the safety production month, and safety and environmental protection issues began to attract market attention. The decline in domestic coal prices has put pressure on Mongolian coal imports. In May, the cumulative number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 21,166, a 3.5% decrease from April and an 18.8% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - **Investment Suggestion**: In the near term, it is recommended to observe carefully and focus on the supply situation [5]. Coke - **Price Performance**: On the night of June 4, the main coke contract declined slightly and did not continue the upward trend during the day session. The latest quoted price of the standard - grade coke at Rizhao Port for flat - position closing is 1340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1476 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Situation**: The supply - demand pattern of coke has no obvious change, but the uncertainty in the coking coal supply end has increased the long - short game in the market, significantly increasing the volatility of coking coal and coke futures [7]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Closely monitor the subsequent production volume and Mongolian coal imports, and mainly observe carefully in the short term [7].

撰写品种：沪锌 撰写时间：2025/5/27 回顾周期：日度 研究员： 曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 总体来看，低库存对价格形成支撑，但供应宽松预期限制反弹高度，短期震荡为主， 需关注西南地区检修恢复进度及 LME 库存变动。 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 图1：沪锌期货加权价格走势 图片来源：文华财经 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、 甄别和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的信 息或所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报告内 容及最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失 承担任何责任。 沪锌日度报告 2025 年 5 月 27 日，沪锌主力合约 ZN2507 收盘价为 22,330 元/吨，较前一交易 日上涨 0.61%，成交金额达 384.6 亿元，持仓量增至 12.16 万手。 供应方面，国内锌 ...