Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with lithium carbonate futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.64%, settling at 72,220.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Summary - In August, Chile's lithium carbonate exports totaled 16,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.2% but a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - Exports to China accounted for 13,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [1] - Despite production disruptions from Jiangxi's mica mines, the market maintains expectations of ample future supply due to lithium extraction from salt lakes and imported spodumene [1] Demand Summary - The traditional consumption peak season, referred to as "Golden September and Silver October," is approaching, leading to an increase in power demand and sustained high levels of energy storage demand [1] - Production remains stable among leading companies in the downstream cathode materials sector [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, potential supply disruptions still exist, keeping lithium prices relatively firm, while demand remains robust, suggesting limited downside potential and a wide range of price fluctuations in the future [1]

1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

产业期现日报 证监许可 【2011】1292 (デ「发期货 Z0017002 | 2025年8月8日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | | | | | 品种 | 8月7日 | 8HeB | 涨跌 | 张跃幅 | 单位 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2500.0 | 2562.5 | -62.5 | -2.4% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2560.0 | 2580.0 | -20.0 | -0.8% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4910.0 | 4920.0 | -10.0 | -0.2% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | 5100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2413.0 | 2474.0 | -61.0 | -2.5% | | | SH2601 | 2542.0 | 2576.0 | -34.0 | -1.3% | | | SH基差 | 87.0 | 88 ર | -1.5 | -1.7% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on the futures of coking coal and coke, suggesting that both are likely to run weakly. It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the supply side of coking coal, especially the production and Mongolian coal imports [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a decline, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is a weak operation. The core logic is a mix of long and short factors with a low - level rebound [1]. - For coke 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a decline, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is a weak operation. The core logic is that the strengthening support of raw materials leads to an oscillating adjustment [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - On the night of June 5, the main coking coal contract closed at 789.5 points, rising 4.64% during the night session and continuing the rebound trend. The latest offer of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 900.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.3%, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 870 yuan/ton. Previously, due to long - term bearish factors such as "loose supply expectations" and "concerns about black terminal demand", the price dropped continuously. On June 3, the JM2509 contract fell to 709 yuan/ton, reaching a historical low. Recently, disturbances on the supply side of coking coal have increased, including safety and environmental inspections in China and the impact of falling domestic coal prices on Mongolian coal imports. In May, the cumulative number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 21,166, a 3.5% decrease from April and an 18.8% decrease from the same period last year. Overall, the increase in supply - side disturbances and the intensification of market gaming led to a low - level rebound of futures [5]. Coke (J) - The latest offer of standard - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1476 yuan/ton. On the night of June 5, the main coke contract closed at 1363.5 yuan/ton, with a 1.64% increase during the night session. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of coke has no obvious change, but the uncertainty on the coking coal supply side has increased, leading to a significant rise in the volatility of coking coal and coke futures. The current focus of market gaming is on the coking coal supply side. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent production and Mongolian coal imports. In the short term, it is advisable to be cautious and wait and see. If the expectation of coking coal supply contraction is disproven, coke is expected to return to a weak pattern [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of both coking coal and coke 2509 contracts is fluctuating, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is fluctuating strongly. The overall reference view is weak operation [1]. - For coking coal, due to increased supply disturbances, the futures contract rebounded from a low level, but the supply problem needs actual data verification. If the supply concern is disproven, it is expected to remain at a low level in the medium - and long - term [1][5]. - For coke, although the supply - demand pattern has no obvious change, the uncertainty in the coking coal supply end has increased the market's long - short game. If the expected coking coal supply contraction is disproven, coke will return to a weak pattern [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Performance**: On the night of June 4, the coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted at a low level without further rebound. On June 3, the JM2509 contract once fell to 709 yuan/ton, in a historical low - level range [5]. - **Supply Factors**: In June, China entered the safety production month, and safety and environmental protection issues began to attract market attention. The decline in domestic coal prices has put pressure on Mongolian coal imports. In May, the cumulative number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 21,166, a 3.5% decrease from April and an 18.8% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - **Investment Suggestion**: In the near term, it is recommended to observe carefully and focus on the supply situation [5]. Coke - **Price Performance**: On the night of June 4, the main coke contract declined slightly and did not continue the upward trend during the day session. The latest quoted price of the standard - grade coke at Rizhao Port for flat - position closing is 1340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1476 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Situation**: The supply - demand pattern of coke has no obvious change, but the uncertainty in the coking coal supply end has increased the long - short game in the market, significantly increasing the volatility of coking coal and coke futures [7]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Closely monitor the subsequent production volume and Mongolian coal imports, and mainly observe carefully in the short term [7].

Report Overview - Reported variety: Shanghai Zinc [1] - Writing time: May 27, 2025 [1] - Review period: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consultation license number: Z0019820 [2] 1. Market Performance - On May 27, 2025, the closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract ZN2507 was 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 38.46 billion yuan and an open interest of 121,600 lots [3] 2. Supply Situation - The processing fee (TC) of domestic zinc smelters is on an upward trend, and it is expected to continue rising in June, with stable smelting profits [3] - Maintenance of zinc mines in the Southwest region has affected the concentrate output by over 1,000 metal tons, and a smelter in the South China region has extended its maintenance period, leading to a short - term local supply contraction [3] 3. Demand Situation - Orders of processing enterprises have not shown significant growth, indicating weak restocking motivation in the manufacturing industry [3] - Terminal procurement is mainly for刚需, and demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak [3] 4. Overall Outlook - Low inventory supports prices, but the expectation of ample supply limits the upside potential. In the short term, the market will be range - bound [3] - Attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance resumption in the Southwest region and changes in LME inventory [3]