Group 1 - The core focus of the market in the past week was on the strong U.S. retail sales data and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, which resulted in a significant interest rate cut described as "insurance-style" [1][5] - U.S. retail sales data exceeded expectations, particularly the retail control group, indicating that consumer spending remains robust despite signs of a cooling labor market [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was characterized as a preventive measure rather than a response to an economic downturn, suggesting that the overall economic condition is still stable [5][6] Group 2 - The market's initial reaction to the retail data was somewhat counterintuitive, with short-term interest rates falling before rebounding after the FOMC meeting [6][8] - The performance of the U.S. dollar is expected to stabilize, with potential for a rebound as the Fed enters a phase of consecutive rate cuts, which may correct market expectations of excessive easing [11][18] - U.S. equities, particularly growth and technology stocks, have been performing well, supported by the combination of a stable economy and Fed rate cuts, with small-cap stocks potentially poised for a rebound due to low positioning [13][14][16] Group 3 - The Bank of England faces a dilemma regarding the sale of long-term bonds purchased during QE, which could either exacerbate the pressure on the bond market or lead to significant losses if held [16][18] - The overall conclusion from the week's events indicates that the U.S. economy is not weakening as feared, and the Fed's "insurance-style" rate cut is favorable for risk assets, with implications for the dollar, equities, and gold [18]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September marks the beginning of a new easing cycle [1] Group 1: Key Signals from the Federal Reserve - Signal One: The dot plot indicates a more aggressive stance, with a narrow 10 to 9 vote supporting three rate cuts this year, exceeding Goldman Sachs' previous expectation of two [2] - Signal Two: The policy statement has shifted towards a more accommodative tone, mirroring language used in previous meetings that preceded rate cuts [3] - Signal Three: Chairman Powell emphasized concerns about the labor market, noting that it is "indeed cooling," with rising unemployment indicating a more severe decline in labor demand [4] - Signal Four: Powell characterized the recent rate cut as a "risk management cut," aimed at addressing downside risks in the labor market [6] - Signal Five: Powell suggested that the bond market's pricing of the entire rate cut path could provide substantial support to the economy, implying that the Fed will need to follow through on this path [9][10] Group 2: Implications of Goldman Sachs' Analysis - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the Fed's rate path, based on probability-weighted calculations, appears more dovish than current market pricing, suggesting that the market may need to adjust to further rate cut expectations [11]

Core Viewpoint - TA Securities suggests that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, the market may react with a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" approach, as most investors have already priced in this rate cut [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - A 25 basis point cut will be perceived as a cautious and supportive "insurance-style" rate cut aimed at maintaining growth momentum without signaling distress [1] - The environment created by this rate cut is favorable for sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and technology, which benefit from lower borrowing costs and exhibit defensive or long-term growth characteristics [1] Group 2: Sector Impacts - Financial stocks are likely to suffer due to reduced profit margins from narrowing interest spreads, often underperforming the broader market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 4.00%-4.25%, the market is expected to react with a "buy the rumor, sell the news" response, as most investors have already priced in this expectation [1] - A 25 basis point cut will be interpreted as a cautious, supportive "insurance" cut aimed at maintaining growth momentum without signaling distress [1] - This environment is typically favorable for consumer staples, healthcare, and technology stocks, which benefit from lower borrowing costs and possess defensive or long-term growth characteristics [1] Group 2 - Financial stocks are likely to underperform the market due to reduced profitability from narrowing interest margins [1]

Group 1 - European Central Bank (ECB) officials are increasingly confident that they can maintain interest rates unchanged in September, with economic growth and inflation aligning with ECB's June expectations [1][3] - The ECB's current forecast suggests inflation pressures will decline by 2026 and return to the 2% target by 2027, with the September quarterly forecast likely to confirm this scenario [1][4] - Following eight rate cuts of 25 basis points within a year, the ECB indicated a high threshold for further rate cuts, as unexpected economic growth and slightly higher-than-expected inflation were reported in the Eurozone [3][5] Group 2 - ECB President Lagarde noted that while recent trade agreements have alleviated some global uncertainties, they have not completely eliminated them, and the current tariff levels remain above those set in June [3][4] - The PMI report from S&P Global indicated that Eurozone business activity reached a 15-month high in August, although export orders showed signs of weakness [3] - Economists still anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in December, although the probability of this occurring is considered to be below 50% by traders, who have not fully priced in potential further measures [5]

Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing slight fluctuations, trading at 3334.08, with expectations to test resistance levels above 3370 [1] - COMEX gold price decreased by 0.15% to 3383.50 USD/oz, while Shanghai gold futures fell by 0.01% to 776.08 CNY/g [3] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges regarding interest rate decisions, particularly with core PCE expected to exceed the 2% target by 100 basis points [3] Group 2 - Historical patterns suggest that after the current consolidation phase, gold prices are likely to rise again, although there are signals indicating potential downward risks [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at approximately 3270 USD and 3200 USD, with bullish sentiment expected if these levels are reached [4] - The 4-hour MACD shows a weakening trend, indicating that gold may face challenges in maintaining upward momentum unless it stabilizes above 3347 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers, particularly those concerned about core PCE deviating from the 2% target, are likely to support a "insurance rate cut" only if the August non-farm payroll data, to be released on September 5, shows further weakness [1] Group 1 - The average job growth in the U.S. over the past three months is currently only 35,000 [1] - Chris Weston from Pepperstone indicates that the Fed's credibility is under significant pressure [1] - A rate cut in September, while core PCE is expected to exceed the target by 100 basis points, would be a challenging decision in any environment [1] Group 2 - It remains unclear whether the effects of tariffs will gradually become apparent [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth average over the past three months is only 35,000, leading to concerns about the Federal Reserve's credibility and potential for an "insurance rate cut" if the August non-farm data, to be released on September 5, shows further weakness [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decision-makers, particularly those worried about core PCE deviating from the 2% target, may support a rate cut if the upcoming employment data is weak [1] - The core PCE is expected to exceed the target by 100 basis points, making a rate cut in September a challenging decision under any circumstances [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the effects of tariffs will gradually become apparent [1]