午后，银行板块持续走强，浦发银行、南京银行涨超5%，渝农商行、齐鲁银行、上海银行、重庆银行 等涨幅靠前。消息面上，"十一"假期前，浦发银行发布公告称，东方资产通过二级市场购入普通股及可 转债转股的形式增持该银行股份。 | 浦发银行 | | | | E | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600000 國 沪股通 ▼ | | | | | | | 11.97 最高 12.54 | 今开 | | 12.55 最低 | | 11.78 | | 0.49% 总手 5.91% 0.70 | 换手 | | 152万 金额 | | 18.61亿 | | 总值 3932亿 流值 3932亿 市盈 | | | 6.61 | | 重零 | | 浦发转债 110.557 +0.12% | | | 转股溢价率 10.29% > | | | | 〔〕三季报预披露：于2025-10-31披露 2025年三季报 | | | | | | | 日 K 分时 | 王日 | 周Ｋ | 目Ｋ | | 更多, | | 12.55 | | | 6.00% 卖５ | 12.58 | 1414 | | | ...

Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing slight fluctuations, trading at 3334.08, with expectations to test resistance levels above 3370 [1] - COMEX gold price decreased by 0.15% to 3383.50 USD/oz, while Shanghai gold futures fell by 0.01% to 776.08 CNY/g [3] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges regarding interest rate decisions, particularly with core PCE expected to exceed the 2% target by 100 basis points [3] Group 2 - Historical patterns suggest that after the current consolidation phase, gold prices are likely to rise again, although there are signals indicating potential downward risks [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at approximately 3270 USD and 3200 USD, with bullish sentiment expected if these levels are reached [4] - The 4-hour MACD shows a weakening trend, indicating that gold may face challenges in maintaining upward momentum unless it stabilizes above 3347 [4][5]

Report on Pre - market Tips 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the precious metals market, including gold and silver. It points out that the US economy remains robust, with better - than - expected consumer confidence and retail sales data. However, inflation data is mixed, which makes the Fed likely to remain cautious. Gold and silver prices are in a state of oscillation, and long - position holders of silver are advised to continue holding [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 0.30% to $3355.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.32% to $38.425 per ounce. At night, the main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.36% to 778.10 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 0.33% to 9216 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of July 18, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.87 tons to 943.63 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 36.74 tons to 14658.21 tons. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8 (expected 61.5, previous value 60.7), and the preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4% (expected 5.0%, previous value 5.0%) [1]. Market Logic - The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, the highest since March this year, higher than the market expectation of 0.1%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, slightly better than expected. The US economy remains robust. - The US core CPI in June increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slightly lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. The CPI in June only rose moderately, and both the core CPI and PPI were lower than expected. The market doubts the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the Fed may remain cautious [1]. Trading Strategy - The gold price is oscillating, with COMEX gold trading between $3250 - $3480 per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract trading between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. After reaching a high on July 14, COMEX silver has been in a correction for several days, and long - position holders are advised to continue holding [1].

Report Overview - The report is issued by Green大华 Futures Research Institute on July 14, 2025, focusing on the morning session notice of precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The prices of gold and silver in the precious metals sector are in a state of oscillation. The price of COMEX gold is expected to range between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce, and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract is expected to operate between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1] Key Information Summary Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to 3370.3 dollars per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to 39.08 dollars per ounce. At night, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 2.38% to 9232 yuan per kilogram [1] ETF Holdings - As of July 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.17 tons from the previous day to 947.64 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 131.41 tons from the previous day to 14758.52 tons [1] CFTC Data - As of the week ending July 8, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,855 contracts to 134,842 contracts [1] Tariff Policy - On July 12, local time, Trump announced on social media that starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU. On July 9, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, effective from August 1, 2025 [1] Market Logic - US fiscal deficits and tariff policies have increased inflation concerns. The US dollar index rebounded slightly on July 11 and then fluctuated narrowly horizontally. Gold prices rose on July 11, and silver prices increased significantly [1] Trading Strategy - Gold prices are oscillating, with COMEX gold operating between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract operating between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The precious metals market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. After the release of the strong US June non - farm payrolls report last Thursday, gold futures prices dropped and then rebounded, while the US dollar index jumped and then fell. Silver and gold oscillated on Friday. The outcome of tariff negotiations between the US, the EU, and other countries will impact the global economy and financial markets, and the implementation of global trade negotiations needs further observation. Investors are advised to remain on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.11% to $3346.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.14% to $37.14 per ounce. During the night session, the main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.19% to 777.00 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 0.16% to 8931 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of 8:32 on the 5th, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 947.66 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The US President stated that he had signed 12 trade letters and planned to send them on Monday. Bessent said that trade consultations with the EU were in progress, and major news might be announced in the next two days [1]. - The Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to impose anti - dumping duties on imported relevant brandy from the EU starting from July 5, 2025 [1]. Market Logic - The stronger - than - expected US June non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night led traders to withdraw their bets on a Fed rate cut this month, causing a plunge in gold futures prices followed by a rebound, while the US dollar index jumped and then fell. Silver and gold oscillated on Friday. The expiration of the grace period for reciprocal tariffs set by the US on July 9 and the final negotiation results of tariffs between the US, the EU, and other countries will affect the global economy and financial markets [1]. Trading Strategy - Precious metal prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines. COMEX gold is expected to trade between $3250 - $3480 per ounce, COMEX silver between $35.0 - $37.4 per ounce, the main contract of Shanghai gold between 750 - 800 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver between 8450 - 9075 yuan per kilogram [1].

Group 1: Current Gold Market Performance - International spot gold prices have been in a downward trend, falling below $3,400 per ounce as of June 19, with a drop of 0.48% and a daily low of $3,347.20 per ounce [2] - In the domestic market, gold prices from certain brands and bank investment gold bars have also seen slight declines, with the Shanghai gold main contract down 0.49% [2] - The A-share precious metals sector and gold concept sector fell by 1.90% and 2.41% respectively, indicating poor recent performance in the gold market [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - Global economic growth prospects have improved, leading investors to prefer stocks and emerging industries over gold, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] - The weakening of gold's safe-haven attributes is evident as geopolitical tensions have not escalated significantly, reducing demand for gold as a protective investment [4] - Investment demand for gold has weakened due to the diversification of financial markets, with investors drawn to high-return sectors like digital currencies and emerging technologies [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, but uncertainty remains regarding future monetary policy, which could affect gold prices [6] - Despite the current downward trend in gold prices, a survey indicates that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, suggesting potential long-term support for gold prices [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - In terms of data, the U.S. adjusted non-farm employment population for May recorded 139,000, which is the lowest since February and above the market expectation of 130,000 [1] - Regarding interest rate cuts, President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for its delayed actions, noting that Europe has cut rates 10 times while the U.S. has not [1] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data indicates a 99.9% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with only a 0.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and an 83.4% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July, with a cumulative 16.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1]