Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

周五（8月22日）亚市盘中，现货黄金窄幅震荡，黄金价格小幅下跌，目前交投于3334.08，金价日线上收取一根十字K 小阳，还是位于均线上方运行，布林带收口，还有反弹的动能，预计要去一次3370上方，关键阻力接连受挫，短线维 持50日均线附近拉锯。 黄金方面，周图，金价自去年开涨攀升以来，如期第4次再度回踩中轨线支撑，并展开震荡调整行情，按照历史规律， 震荡调整之后将再度向上攀升。 但附图指标维持空头信号发展，相对主图也有顶部背离的预期。也暗示后市有大幅坠落的风险，如有走低，下方重点 支撑关注之前数周震荡区间的底部支撑3270美元附近支撑，以及30周均线支撑位置3200美元附近。并在触及之后可先 行看涨。 反之如维持目前在中轨支撑附近震荡调整的格局，则也继续等待震荡调整后，再度转持续向上攀升。 日图；金价目前未能突破60日均线阻力稳健转强，但也未跌破100日均线加大看空力度，多空动力都将受限，在打破此 阻力与支撑之前，震荡波动对待，上方阻力可空，下方支撑可多。不过，方向个人还是偏向看涨，操作还是低多看涨 为主。 4小时目前macd金叉缩量逐步粘合，灵动指标sto双线粘合向下，代表4小时目前震荡偏弱。目前下方关注 ...

Report on Pre - market Tips 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the precious metals market, including gold and silver. It points out that the US economy remains robust, with better - than - expected consumer confidence and retail sales data. However, inflation data is mixed, which makes the Fed likely to remain cautious. Gold and silver prices are in a state of oscillation, and long - position holders of silver are advised to continue holding [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 0.30% to $3355.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.32% to $38.425 per ounce. At night, the main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.36% to 778.10 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 0.33% to 9216 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of July 18, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.87 tons to 943.63 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 36.74 tons to 14658.21 tons. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8 (expected 61.5, previous value 60.7), and the preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4% (expected 5.0%, previous value 5.0%) [1]. Market Logic - The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, the highest since March this year, higher than the market expectation of 0.1%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, slightly better than expected. The US economy remains robust. - The US core CPI in June increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slightly lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. The CPI in June only rose moderately, and both the core CPI and PPI were lower than expected. The market doubts the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the Fed may remain cautious [1]. Trading Strategy - The gold price is oscillating, with COMEX gold trading between $3250 - $3480 per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract trading between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. After reaching a high on July 14, COMEX silver has been in a correction for several days, and long - position holders are advised to continue holding [1].

Report Overview - The report is issued by Green大华 Futures Research Institute on July 14, 2025, focusing on the morning session notice of precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The prices of gold and silver in the precious metals sector are in a state of oscillation. The price of COMEX gold is expected to range between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce, and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract is expected to operate between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1] Key Information Summary Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to 3370.3 dollars per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to 39.08 dollars per ounce. At night, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 2.38% to 9232 yuan per kilogram [1] ETF Holdings - As of July 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.17 tons from the previous day to 947.64 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 131.41 tons from the previous day to 14758.52 tons [1] CFTC Data - As of the week ending July 8, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,855 contracts to 134,842 contracts [1] Tariff Policy - On July 12, local time, Trump announced on social media that starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU. On July 9, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, effective from August 1, 2025 [1] Market Logic - US fiscal deficits and tariff policies have increased inflation concerns. The US dollar index rebounded slightly on July 11 and then fluctuated narrowly horizontally. Gold prices rose on July 11, and silver prices increased significantly [1] Trading Strategy - Gold prices are oscillating, with COMEX gold operating between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract operating between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]

Morning session notice | 研究员： | | --- | | 刘洋 | | 从业资格： | | F3063825 | | 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.11%报 3346.5 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.14%报 37.14 美 | | | | | 元/盎司。夜盘沪金主连涨 0.19%，报 777.00 元/克，沪银主连涨 0.16%，报 8931 | | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至北京时间 5 日 8:32，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 947.66 | | | | | 吨，较前一个交易日维持不变。 | | | | | 2、美国总统称已签署 12 封贸易信函，计划周一发出。贝森特称与欧盟的贸易磋商 | | | | | 正在推进，未来两天或宣布重大消息。 | ...

Group 1: Current Gold Market Performance - International spot gold prices have been in a downward trend, falling below $3,400 per ounce as of June 19, with a drop of 0.48% and a daily low of $3,347.20 per ounce [2] - In the domestic market, gold prices from certain brands and bank investment gold bars have also seen slight declines, with the Shanghai gold main contract down 0.49% [2] - The A-share precious metals sector and gold concept sector fell by 1.90% and 2.41% respectively, indicating poor recent performance in the gold market [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - Global economic growth prospects have improved, leading investors to prefer stocks and emerging industries over gold, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] - The weakening of gold's safe-haven attributes is evident as geopolitical tensions have not escalated significantly, reducing demand for gold as a protective investment [4] - Investment demand for gold has weakened due to the diversification of financial markets, with investors drawn to high-return sectors like digital currencies and emerging technologies [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, but uncertainty remains regarding future monetary policy, which could affect gold prices [6] - Despite the current downward trend in gold prices, a survey indicates that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, suggesting potential long-term support for gold prices [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - In terms of data, the U.S. adjusted non-farm employment population for May recorded 139,000, which is the lowest since February and above the market expectation of 130,000 [1] - Regarding interest rate cuts, President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for its delayed actions, noting that Europe has cut rates 10 times while the U.S. has not [1] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data indicates a 99.9% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with only a 0.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and an 83.4% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July, with a cumulative 16.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1]