近期，特朗普政府宣布将针对中国半导体产业实施新一轮关税，计划在2027年6月生效。这一举动，表 面上似乎只是老调重弹，但其背后却隐藏着深刻的地缘政治逻辑和经济考量。在全球供应链面临挑战的 今天，这场博弈不仅关乎中美两国，更深远影响着整个世界经济的走势。 美国贸易代表办公室此次公布新关税时，强调了中国追求产业自主化的政策"损害了美国利益"。然而， 令人玩味的是，这一关税的生效时间被延迟到了2027年，给人一种留有余地的感觉。这样的安排，是否 暗示着白宫内心的不安和不确定？ 在当前的格局下，特朗普如果寄希望于这些关税政策能够改变中国的产业战略，那么他无疑是低估了中 国的韧性和战略定力。 实际上，特朗普此时拿出一个早已宣布但迟迟不实施的关税政策，理应引发各方的警觉。对华关税的延 迟生效，既是考虑到贸易战对美国经济的潜在影响，也是为即将到来的选举铺路。然而，无论是怎样的 考量，这一关税政策本身就注定会干扰中美的休战氛围。 面对美国的反复无常，中国应展现出更加从容的态度，以不变应万变。特朗普的关税政策不停摆动，实 则可能是在为自己制造新的困惑。相对于美国而言，中国的立场更具连贯性与稳定性。 中美两国自休战以来已经过去两 ...

商务部新闻发言人何咏前25日在回答关于美宣布对部分中国半导体产品加征301关税的有关提问时说， 中方注意到有关情况，已通过中美经贸磋商机制向美方提出严正交涉。中方不认同美方301调查的所谓 结论，坚决反对美对华半导体产品加征301关税。 在商务部当天举行的例行新闻发布会上，有记者问：美东时间12月23日，美国贸易代表办公室发布针对 中国半导体政策301调查结果，宣布对部分中国半导体产品加征301关税，目前税率为0%，18个月后， 即2027年6月再提高税率。商务部对此有何评论？ 商务部回应多个热点问题。 商务部：坚决反对美对华半导体产品加征301关税已提出严正交涉 何咏前说，美单边关税违反世贸组织规则，破坏国际经贸秩序，扰乱全球产业链供应链，损害美国企业 和消费者利益，损人不利己。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，取消相关措施。中方愿与美方在相互尊 重、和平共处、合作共赢原则基础上，通过平等对话磋商解决各自关切。倘若美方执意损害中方权益， 中方将坚决采取必要措施，坚定维护自身权益。 商务部回应是否会放松对美稀土磁体出口的限制 商务部新闻发言人何咏前12月25日在商务部例行新闻发布会上回答有关稀土磁体出口的有关提问 ...

今年以来，我国外贸稳中向好态势持续巩固，跨境货物运输需求旺盛。中欧班列"东通道"由满洲里、绥 芬河、同江铁路口岸组成，目前班列运输货物品类较开行初期增至千余种，涵盖电脑、冰箱、成品汽车 等高附加值产品，班列通行线路拓展到27条，覆盖波兰、德国、荷兰等14个国家，联通国内长沙、郑 州、成都等60余个城市，有效助力我国外贸经济深度融入全球产业链供应链体系。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 12月10日，一列编组60辆满载家用电器、数码产品和工程机具的中欧班列驶出满洲里铁路口岸，年初以 来，中欧班列"东通道"通行班列数量已达5166列，运送各类货品超53万标准箱。 ...

中欧班列"东通道"今年通行量突破5000列。 1 2月10日，伴随一列编组60辆，满载家用电器和数码产品的中欧班列驶出满洲里铁路口 岸，今年中欧班列"东通道"通行班列数量已达5166列，运送各类货品超53万标准箱，为 服务高水平对外开放提供了强劲动能。 ▲ 在满洲里铁路口岸停放整齐的中欧班列。（中国铁路哈尔滨局集团有限公司供图） 中欧班列"东通道"由满洲里、绥芬河、同江铁路口岸组成，目前班列运输货物品类较开行 初期增至千余种，涵盖电脑、冰箱、成品汽车等高附加值产品，班列通行线路拓展到27 条，覆盖波兰、德国、荷兰等1 4个国家，联通国内长沙、郑州、成都等6 0余个城市，有 效助力我国外贸经济深度融入全球产业链供应链体系。 为提高班列运行效率，中国铁路哈尔滨局集团有限公司优先安排班列开行计划，依托"数 字口岸"系统，加强与海关、边检协同配合，持续推行无纸化通关，通过优化宽轨接车流 程、缩短车辆查验时间等措施，不断提升口岸运输组织效能，实现班列通关时间最短压缩 至3 0分钟以内，整体效率提升近10%。 责编丨李慧颖 目前，佳木斯至同江铁路扩能改造工程正在加快推进，未来同江铁路口岸通过能力预计提 升3倍，将进一步扩 ...

彭安杰、格奥尔基耶娃、格林斯潘表示，中国近年来取得举世瞩目发展成就，为促进世界经济增长发挥 重要作用。中国"十五五"规划将为世界经济带来宝贵的确定性和强劲动力。各方高度赞赏中国长期以来 对全球南方发展提供的宝贵帮助，愿同中方进一步加强政策沟通，深化贸易投资、人工智能、绿色发展 等领域合作，共同致力于促进贸易投资便利化和开放包容发展，坚持多边主义，维护联合国等多边机构 权威，改革完善全球治理体系。 吴政隆参加上述会见。（完） 李强表示，近年来，受地缘政治动荡加剧、国际经贸限制措施增多等影响，全球贸易投资走势低迷，产 业链供应链碎片化风险上升，很大程度拖累了世界经济增长。在这样的形势下，中国经济稳健前行，始 终坚持以自身所能，为世界经济注入确定性、稳定性。"十五五"时期，中国经济将持续向好。我们将坚 持扩大内需这个战略基点，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠 性。我们将以智能化、绿色化、融合化为方向，推进建设现代化产业体系，并同更多国家加强产业对接 合作，推动全球产业链供应链不断提质增效。我们将实施更加积极的宏观政策，从市场关切出发，更好 发挥财政政策、货币政策作用，保持经济增长在 ...

宁波舟山港梅西滚装码头，装载了3000余辆新能源汽车的"梦之兰"号滚装船正缓缓离泊驶向墨西哥； 广州花都区一家新能源企业内，一批货值超70万元的太阳能光伏组件正在装箱，准备发往南非； 这三大区域外贸为何跑出加速度？其高质量发展折射出我国外贸怎样的韧性与活力？ 河北保定，一列满载汽车配件、机械设备的中欧班列驶出站台，开往共建"一带一路"国家…… 海关总署近日发布的数据显示，今年前10个月，我国长三角、粤港澳大湾区、京津冀等区域外贸向新向 优，展现出强劲韧性。其中，长三角地区进出口14万亿元，同比增长6%；粤港澳大湾区内地9市进出口 7.52万亿元人民币，创历史同期新高；京津冀区域进出口3.91万亿元，连续7个月保持增长。 亮点多、韧性足 盘点今年以来外贸成绩单，长三角地区的民营企业表现格外抢眼。 据海关统计，今年前10个月，长三角地区进出口14万亿元，同比增长6%；民营企业进出口7.83万亿 元，同比增长9.7%，占进出口总值的55.9%，外贸主力军的作用持续显现。 浙江金华义乌国际商贸城一家五金产品商铺内，来自澳大利亚、斯里兰卡、哈萨克斯坦等国的采购商们 正仔细验看着样品，不时与店主交换着名片、商讨价格。 " ...

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) showcases 461 new products, technologies, and services, emphasizing China's commitment to high-level opening-up and becoming a global innovation testing ground [4][5] - The event facilitates communication and resource integration for Chinese enterprises, enhancing their development through technological innovation and industry collaboration [5] Group 1: Global Procurement Trends - COFCO Group highlights a significant increase in the import volume of Kazakhstani wheat compared to the previous year and has entered the coconut water market through collaboration with Thai brands [6] - The trend towards diversified global procurement is evident, with increasing consumer demand for high-quality and unique global products, creating new opportunities for cross-border business [6] Group 2: Central Enterprises Participation - The "Central Enterprises Procurement Corridor" made its debut at this year's expo, with nearly 20,000 attendees from over 100 central enterprises, resulting in procurement agreements exceeding $40.9 billion across various categories [7] - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed agreements with 34 partners from 17 countries, while China National Machinery Industry Corporation (Sinomach) introduced advanced production lines for sustainable packaging [7] Group 3: International Cooperation and Innovation - Guangxi Canglong Technology Co., Ltd. showcased its AI-powered underwater robots, which have been utilized in international cooperation projects in ASEAN countries [9] - HaiLiang Group aims to expand its collaboration in low-carbon copper materials and recycling, reflecting a commitment to green development and innovation [10][11] Group 4: Opportunities for Future Collaborations - Shanxi Pengfei Group plans to sign procurement agreements for automotive core components with German companies, highlighting the expo as a platform for new business opportunities [11] - The increasing quality and sustainability of exhibited products indicate a growing trend towards innovation and green development in global supply chains [11]

Market Performance - A-shares showed resilience with a trading volume of 1.89 trillion, down approximately 500 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index gained 1.03%[4] - The October China Warehousing Index improved to 50.6%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating economic vitality[1] Sector Analysis - The power equipment sector, including energy storage and distribution, was the standout performer, driven by AI computing infrastructure concerns and energy shortages[2] - Main capital inflows were observed in power grid equipment, batteries, and photovoltaic equipment, while software development, semiconductors, and IT services saw capital outflows[4] Policy Developments - The State Council announced the suspension of additional tariffs on certain U.S. imports effective November 10, 2025, as part of trade negotiations[5][8] - China signed an economic partnership framework agreement with several Pacific island nations to enhance bilateral trade and investment cooperation[6][7] Fund Dynamics - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 497.25 billion, with stock ETFs accounting for 112.1 billion and bond ETFs for 246.06 billion[13][14] - Public fund reports indicate a concentration in technology growth sectors, with increased holdings in TMT while reducing positions in large finance and consumer sectors[15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29, but Powell's hawkish speech lowered the market's expectation of a December rate cut. On October 30, the leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus reached by the China-US economic and trade teams in Kuala Lumpur. The specific consensus on China-US economic and trade is beneficial for China to increase exports to the US and stabilize growth in the fourth quarter and next year. The easing of China-US economic and trade disputes is also conducive to stabilizing the global trade environment and the global industrial chain and supply chain. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were flat, and they fluctuated slightly upwards throughout the day. As of the close, the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures TL2512 rose 0.19%, the 10-year T2512 rose 0.05%, the 5-year TF2512 was flat, and the 2-year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] - The Wande All A stock index closed with a small negative line on Thursday, with a total trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, a slight increase from the previous trading day's 2.29 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter-bank money market declined compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.31% (1.40% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50% (1.55% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter-bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2-year treasury bonds rose 3.45 basis points to 0.04%, the 5-year declined 1.74 basis points to 1.56%, the 10-year declined 1.10 basis points to 1.81%, and the 30-year declined 1.45 basis points to 2.16% [1] - On October 30, the Bank of Japan announced to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, in line with expectations [1] - As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy-based financial instruments had been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [1] - On October 30, the European Central Bank announced to keep interest rates unchanged, with the deposit rate remaining at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4% [2] 3.3 China-US Economic and Trade Consensus - The US will cancel the 10% so-called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29 for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study and refine specific plans [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of its Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the US suspends relevant measures, China will also suspend its countermeasures against the US for one year [2] - The two sides also reached consensus on fentanyl anti-drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. They further confirmed the results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations, and the US made positive commitments in the field of investment. China will properly resolve issues related to TikTok with the US [2] 3.4 Market Logic - On October 29, the Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds target rate to 3.75%-4.00%, in line with market expectations. However, Powell's hawkish speech lowered the market's expectation of a December rate cut. On October 30, the leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus reached by the China-US economic and trade teams in Kuala Lumpur [2] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent mineral agreement signed between Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese is perceived as a strategic move aimed at countering China, highlighting geopolitical tensions in the mineral supply chain [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The agreement is part of a broader strategy to secure critical mineral resources, which are essential for various industries and technologies [1]. - The Chinese government emphasizes that the formation of global supply chains is a result of market and enterprise choices, indicating a push for stability in trade relations [1]. Group 2: Industry Implications - Key mineral resource countries are urged to play a proactive role in ensuring the security and stability of industrial and supply chains, which may influence future trade dynamics [1]. - The focus on normalizing economic and trade cooperation suggests potential shifts in how countries engage in resource management and trade agreements [1].