Core Viewpoint - Gold should be viewed as a strategic asset for macro hedging, currency hedging, and obtaining stable long-term returns, rather than a tactical tool for short-term gains [4] Group 1: Long-term Returns - Over the past 20 years, gold has achieved an annualized return exceeding 10% when calculated in RMB, outperforming most mainstream assets over 10 and 5-year periods [8] - The long-term performance of gold is primarily driven by global GDP growth and physical gold demand, including central bank purchases, financial investments, and technological uses [8] Group 2: Currency Hedging - Gold is a globally priced asset that does not rely on any country's or institution's credit backing, making it a hedge against all fiat currencies in the context of global monetary expansion [12] Group 3: Systemic Risk Mitigation - Historical data shows that during market corrections in traditional stock-bond portfolios, gold tends to perform well, providing investors with a buffer against systemic risks [16]

Group A - Gold has emerged as one of the best-performing assets in recent years, with a 28% increase in 2024 and over 25% since 2025, leading financial institutions to launch "Gold+" multi-asset strategy products [1] - The "Gold+" strategy is increasingly recognized by asset management institutions and favored by individual investors, indicating a shift in gold's role from a tactical tool for asset allocation to a strategic core holding [1] Group B - Gold should be viewed as a strategic core holding for macro hedging, currency hedging, and achieving stable long-term returns, rather than a tactical tool for short-term gains [1] - The current macro environment and external shocks significantly impact the overall performance of RMB assets (equities, fixed income) beyond the variables of individual assets [1] Group C - Over the past 20 years, gold has provided an annualized return of over 10% when calculated in RMB, outperforming most mainstream assets over 10-year and 5-year periods [3] - The long-term returns of gold are primarily driven by global GDP growth and physical gold demand, including central bank purchases, financial investments, gold bars and coins, jewelry, and technological uses [3] Group D - Gold serves as a global pricing asset that does not rely on any country's or institution's credit backing, making it a hedge against currency fluctuations [6] - In the context of global monetary expansion, gold can act as a hedge against all credit currencies [6] Group E - Historical data shows that when traditional stock-bond portfolios (50% stocks, 50% bonds) experience a downturn due to systemic risks, gold tends to perform well, providing investors with a buffer against risk [9] - Gold's demand is diverse and driven by global factors, resulting in low correlation with domestic assets, effectively reducing the impact of systemic risks on traditional stock-bond portfolios [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is transitioning from a "tactical tool" for short-term gains to a "strategic core" for long-term investment, as evidenced by its significant price increase of 28% in 2024 and over 25% since 2025 [1][2] - The current macroeconomic environment and external shocks, such as tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, have a greater impact on RMB assets than on individual asset variables, indicating a need for a strategic approach to asset allocation [2] - Gold has provided a long-term annualized return of over 10% over the past 20 years, outperforming most mainstream assets in 10-year and 5-year dimensions, driven by global GDP growth and diverse demand sources [6][8] Group 2 - Gold serves as a hedge against currency fluctuations, being a globally priced asset that does not rely on any country's credit, making it a valuable tool in the context of global currency overproduction [10] - Historical data shows that gold performs well during market corrections in traditional stock-bond portfolios, providing a buffer against systemic risks due to its low correlation with domestic assets [11][12]

Group 1 - The long-term rebound of the euro is expected to squeeze profits and revenues for European companies, particularly exporters facing challenges from the strong euro and U.S. tariffs [1][4][5] - Major European companies such as SAP, Porsche, Heineken, and Schneider Electric have warned investors about the potential impact of the strong euro on their earnings [1][4][5] - The euro has appreciated over 9% against the dollar, reaching a three-year high, which raises concerns about further euro appreciation and its effects on European export competitiveness [1][4][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the strong euro could lead to a significant reduction in profit expectations for major European exporters, with HSBC lowering profit growth forecasts for the FTSE Europe Index companies to 2.9% [4][5] - SAP's CFO indicated that a 0.01 USD increase in the euro to dollar exchange rate could reduce the company's annual revenue by 30 million euros, highlighting the direct financial impact of currency fluctuations [5] - Heineken and Schneider Electric also reported potential profit reductions due to the strong euro, with estimates of 180 million euros and 1.25 billion euros respectively [5][6] Group 3 - The strong euro is seen as a double-edged sword for European trade, benefiting imports but posing challenges for exports, particularly in the context of the current international economic environment [2][4] - The euro's rise is partly attributed to the weakening of the dollar, as investors seek alternative safe-haven assets amid uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies [7] - The overall performance of European stocks has been negatively affected by the euro's strength, with key companies underperforming compared to the broader European market [6][7]

多年来，伦敦、巴黎和东京的投资者们拥有一个近乎完美的"印钞机"策略：购买美元并将收益投入标普500和纳斯达 克股票。美国股票回报率不仅远超本国市场，美元的持续升值更是让这些回报实现了双倍放大。 然而，这个曾经看似无敌的交易组合在特朗普发动全球贸易战后突然爆发危机。今年以来，标普500指数下跌6%， 但对于以欧元和日元计价回报的美股投资者而言，由于美元大跌（美元指数今年以来跌幅接近8%），他们的亏损膨 胀至惊人的14%。白宫政策的急剧转向和不可预测性，正令那些长期将美国视为终极避险天堂的投资者感到前所未 有的不安。 对冲成本与收益的残酷权衡 那些担心美元汇率下跌的交易者通常会在远期市场上卖出美元。对于瑞士法郎或日元的投资者来说，三个月的对冲 成本如果按年化计算，大约是4%；而对于欧元投资者，这个成本则会超过2%。 这种对冲策略虽然可以在美元下跌时弥补损失，但同时也会让他们失去因美元汇率上涨而可能获得的收益。此外， 持续的对冲成本还会逐渐侵蚀投资的回报率。 东京瑞穗证券首席策略师Shoki Omori形象地描述："对于那些在更高汇率时进场的管理者来说，美元兑日元每下跌一 点，都感觉像是在伤口上撒盐。" 期权是另一 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. multinational companies are extending their currency hedging periods to protect cash flows from potential exchange rate fluctuations caused by the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, reflecting increased uncertainty in the global trade landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Hedging Adjustments - The adjustment in hedging periods indicates that multinational companies are facing heightened uncertainty amid concerns over economic recession and a weakening dollar [1]. - Following the announcement of higher-than-expected global tariffs on April 2, volatility in the foreign exchange market surged, leading to unrealized losses in some companies' hedging positions [1]. - Companies that have managed to withstand volatility are also beginning to extend their hedging periods, with some clients extending to the maximum available duration to lock in protective measures [1][2]. Group 2: Rising Costs of Short-term Hedging - The increase in volatility has raised the costs of short-term hedging tools, prompting companies to extend their hedging periods [2]. - Implied volatility for one-month and three-month parity options has increased by 72% and 46% respectively since April 2, leading to higher costs for companies to mitigate potential short-term losses [2]. Group 3: Shift in Options Strategy - The impact of tariffs has disrupted market expectations for the euro, with a stronger euro increasing operational costs for U.S. companies with significant sales in Europe [3]. - Companies are increasingly building protective mechanisms, particularly those needing to purchase goods and materials priced in euros [3]. - There is a growing demand for "window forward contracts," which combine the advantages of forward contracts with flexible execution times, suitable for companies facing cash flow uncertainties [3]. - More clients are shifting from forward hedging to options strategies to gain greater flexibility amid ongoing trade tensions [3].