Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the bond market have led to concerns among investors regarding the performance of wealth management products, with many experiencing net value declines and early terminations [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market has been weakening, with the 30-year government bond futures down 3.72% and the 10-year government bond futures down 0.54% as of December 8 [1] - The decline in bond prices has directly impacted the net value of wealth management products, particularly fixed-income products [1] - A significant number of wealth management products have announced early terminations, with nearly a hundred products terminating between November 1 and December 9 [1][2] Group 2: Institutional Responses and Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the bond market's weakness to a combination of tightening liquidity and adjustments in policy expectations, with the central bank's shift to net absorption of liquidity contributing to the situation [3] - Concerns over new public fund fee regulations have also affected market sentiment, potentially leading to redemptions in bond funds [3] - Despite current market volatility, many analysts believe the adjustments are short-term, with no significant negative changes in the fundamental or policy landscape [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In light of the bond market fluctuations, maintaining asset stability and liquidity is crucial, with cash management products being recommended as a defensive strategy [4] - Investors are advised to focus on underlying assets, management capabilities, and product liquidity, rather than solely on returns [4] - Clear financial planning and appropriate product selection are emphasized as key to achieving investment goals amidst market volatility [4]

分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 1、12月15日，统计局公布11月经济数据。11月消费增速回落至1.3%（前值 2.9%），1-11月固定资产投资累计增速回落至-2.6%（前值-1.7%），工业增加值回 落至4.8%（前值4.9），数据显示国内经济回落压力进一步增加，但全年完成经济增 长目标难度不大。 2、12月19日，国家金融监督管理总局就《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见 稿）》正式向社会公开征求意见。其中，明确考核评价方法和标准，实施长周期考核 评价，防止因过度追求业务扩张和短期利润而放松资产负债管理。 3、12月19日，日本央行宣布加息25个基点，将无担保隔夜拆借利率上调至0.75%， 创下1995年以来最高水平，这次决议以9:0的结果获得全票通过。 02 (12.15-12.21) 周度行情回顾 债市小幅修复 债市小幅修复。债市利空被计价后，市场情绪改善，对于降息、公募基金费率新规即将落 地预期回升，收益率从偏高水平向下修复。 链接报告 阅读全文（长按上方二维码） 您也可点击下方"阅读原文"查看报告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with increased difficulty in investment compared to last year, influenced by various factors including policy changes and market dynamics [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets saw gains, with government bond futures rising across the board [2][3]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.6 basis points to 1.777% [2][3]. - The bond market has shown a wide fluctuation in yields this year, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating nearly 15 basis points since its issuance [3][8]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment returns from banks have significantly weakened year-on-year, impacting their profitability [1][7]. - The introduction of new public fund sales regulations and the resumption of value-added tax on bond interest income are causing institutions to adjust their strategies [7][9]. - The bond market's "dull knife cutting meat" trend has led to increased pressure on investors, with many institutions facing challenges in navigating the current market environment [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism for the bond market, noting that while trading enthusiasm may slightly recover, overall trading space remains limited [1][6]. - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations [1][6]. - There is a consensus that even if the fundamental data remains poor in the fourth quarter, the continued loose monetary policy may not significantly lower bond yields [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the new public fund fee regulations have led to a generally bearish sentiment towards bond funds, resulting in increased redemption pressure [1][3] - Data shows that in the first two days of the week, various bond products sold nearly 100 billion yuan worth of bonds, with significant sales of long-term government bonds and policy bank bonds [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent large-scale redemptions are not solely due to the new regulations but are also influenced by a combination of negative market events and sentiments [3] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a notable sell-off, with fund companies selling 682 billion yuan in bonds on September 9, making them the largest sellers in the market that day [2] - The new public fund fee regulations are expected to increase redemption fees for short-term holders, potentially reducing institutional investment in bond funds [2] - Market sentiment remains fragile, with even unverified negative news causing significant reactions from investors, leading to a cautious outlook on long-term bonds [3]