1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 26th to January 30th, the performance of general credit bonds was stronger than that of secondary capital bonds, possibly due to some institutions taking phased profit - taking after the yields of secondary capital bonds declined for two consecutive weeks. Large banks increased their allocation of interest - rate bonds due to abundant liabilities, small and medium - sized banks became more cautious, wealth management products increased their allocation of low - volatility amortized cost - based bond funds under the net - value constraint, and insurance preferred local government bonds. In the next few weeks, the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds will benefit specific - term credit bonds, and the market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the buying power of funds and insurance, with different yield performances for each term. In terms of future allocation, it is recommended to focus on 5 - year AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds with more attractive interest - rate differentials, and for secondary capital bonds, focus on the allocation opportunities of medium - and long - term varieties after phased profit - taking and the warming of market sentiment [3]. - The overall credit bond market recently followed the fluctuations of interest - rate bonds but showed relative resilience. Urban investment bonds generally outperformed secondary and perpetual bonds. The short - end interest rates of interest - rate bonds rose due to the temporary tightening of the capital market, while the long - end and ultra - long - end interest rates fluctuated under the alternating influence of stock market sentiment and policy expectations. The weakening participation of trading - type funds in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds led to a shift of funds to credit bonds, which is a key reason for the relatively better performance of credit bonds [7]. - The behaviors of major investment institutions have significantly diverged, affecting the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds. Large banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds due to asset shortages and abundant liabilities, which created conditions for the narrowing of credit spreads. At the end of 2025, wealth management products slightly increased their holdings of credit bonds but significantly increased their holdings of public funds, cash, and deposits. This reflects the demand for stable asset net values under the net - value transformation [8]. - In the future, asset supply and specific product cycles will directly affect the credit bond market. Although the supply of government bonds in January was large, the market interest rates remained stable due to the active participation of insurance and other allocation funds, providing a good allocation window for credit bonds. The upcoming opening peak of amortized cost - based bond funds in the next 16 weeks will bring re - allocation demand for corresponding - term credit bonds, and the deepening of the net - value transformation of wealth management products may increase the demand for medium - and long - term amortized bond funds, benefiting medium - and long - term credit bonds [9]. - The recent strong market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations, the structural change of bond - type funds, and the hot sales of dividend - insurance products. Currently, the market has shown signs of differentiation. The yields of 1 - 3 - year varieties have fallen back to near the previous lows, with a narrowing spread protection space, while the 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year varieties still have a certain spread protection margin and relatively high allocation cost - effectiveness. The market rhythm is expected to slow down, and medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds still have certain allocation value. In terms of the allocation strategy, it is recommended to focus on 5 - year AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds and medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds with relatively sufficient spread protection [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 10Y Treasury Bonds: Large Banks Net Buy, Small and Medium - Sized Banks Net Sell - Since January 7, 2026, as the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds gradually declined, the net purchase volume of 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds by large banks showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a single - day peak of 14.105 billion yuan. The increase in large - bank purchases of 10 - year treasury bonds has created conditions for the narrowing of credit spreads. On the demand side, bank deposits have shown super - seasonal growth, increasing the scale of on - balance - sheet funds and reducing the pressure on the liability side. On the supply side, the slow issuance of government bonds, especially local government bonds, has created an asset gap, forcing large banks to increase their net purchases [19]. - In contrast, small and medium - sized banks have a more obvious left - hand trading characteristic in bond investment. Since January 7, 2026, as the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds declined, their willingness to allocate medium - and long - term treasury bonds decreased. Their conservative trading strategy is a passive choice due to the weakening of the traditional profit model. The narrowing of the interest - rate spread of 3 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit between representative city commercial banks and large banks has limited their bond - allocation funds, and the increasing difficulty and risk of obtaining capital gains through trading in the volatile bond market have made them more cautious, focusing on stable coupon income [24]. Bank Wealth Management: Slightly Increase Holdings of Credit Bonds, Focus on Low - Volatility and High - Liquidity Assets - At the end of 2025, bank wealth management slightly increased its holdings of credit bonds, focused on increasing the allocation of public funds, cash, and bank deposits, and reduced its holdings of equity - type assets and inter - bank certificates of deposit. The proportion of bond investment was at a low level in recent years. The increase in public - fund investment may be related to the increase in the allocation of amortized cost - based bond funds and bond ETFs, and the increase in cash and bank - deposit investment may be due to the temporary increase in the supply of inter - bank deposits at the end of the year and the relatively attractive interest rates. The decrease in the scale of equity - type assets and inter - bank certificates of deposit may be due to the contraction of the net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit [30]. New Trends in the Long - Term Bond Market: Slower Brokerage Trading, Insurance Allocation Shift - At the beginning of the year, the concentrated short - selling behavior of brokerage self - operation in 30 - year treasury bonds, combined with the weak承接 power of insurance and other allocation funds, suppressed the trading sentiment of interest - rate bonds. Trading - type investors, represented by funds, reduced their participation in 30 - year treasury bonds and shifted some funds to credit bonds, which is an important reason for the relatively better performance of credit bonds. The selling amount and borrowing balance of 20 - 30Y treasury bonds by brokerage self - operation have declined recently, but they are still at a relatively high level. Insurance institutions prefer local government bonds over 30 - year treasury bonds, mainly for the relatively higher coupon and continuous tax advantages [33]. Is the Supply of Government Bonds in January in Line with Expectations? - Although the supply of government bonds in January was large, the active participation of allocation funds, mainly insurance, in local government bonds effectively alleviated the supply pressure, and the market interest rates remained stable, providing a good allocation window for credit bonds. The actual issuance volume of government bonds in January 2026 was higher than the planned volume, and the issuance scale was basically the same as that of the same period in 2025. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the issuance scale was actually similar to that of the previous year [40]. Future 16 Weeks: Peak Opening of Amortized Bond Funds, Benefiting Corresponding - Term Credit Bonds - The next 16 weeks will be the peak opening period of amortized bond funds, with those with a fixed - opening period of less than 1 year and more than 5 years being the main types, which will have a positive impact on corresponding - term credit bonds. The demand of wealth management products for stable net values may benefit medium - and long - term credit bonds. The opening scale in February is small, but there will be a peak in March. The term structure shows that in February, bonds with a term of more than 5 years are the main type, and in March, bonds with a term of less than 1 year are the main type, which may increase the demand for corresponding - term credit bonds [48]. Adjustment of Cash - Bond Trading Data Caliber: Institutional Classification and Callable Bond Terms - The adjustment of the institutional net - purchase data caliber implemented in 2026 includes two dimensions. One is the simplification of the classification of all - market institutions, and the other is the adjustment of the calculation rule of callable bond terms from being based on the maturity date to being based on the exercise date. After the adjustment, the configuration behavior of wealth - management funds needs to be tracked through the "other" category, and the previous method of judging institutional allocation behavior of secondary capital bonds based on the net - purchase data of 5 - 10Y "other" - type bonds is no longer applicable [52]. How Long Will the Secondary Capital Bond Market Last? - The recent strong market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the improvement of policy expectations, the structural adjustment of bond funds, and the allocation demand of dividend - insurance products. Currently, insurance mainly undertakes long - term secondary capital bonds such as 10Y, while funds have become the main buyers of medium - and short - term secondary capital bonds since December 2025. However, due to the influence of the spread level of secondary capital bonds of different terms, the daily net - purchase growth rate of funds has slowed down. The yields of 1 - 3Y secondary capital bonds have fallen back to near the lows after the release of the draft new public - fund fee regulations in September 2025, with a narrowing spread protection space, while medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds still have a certain spread protection margin and relatively high investment cost - effectiveness [59]. Bond Allocation Strategy: Slightly Cooled Market Sentiment, Focus on Credit Bond Catch - Up - In the past four weeks, the market has shifted from the dominance of secondary capital bonds in mid - January to the recent leadership of general credit bonds. Based on the current interest - rate differential quantile, valuation level, and rotation rhythm, the next - week allocation priority is adjusted as follows: urban investment bonds (AA+, 5Y) > urban investment bonds (AAA, 5Y) > secondary capital bonds (AAA -, 5Y). The 5Y AA+ urban investment bonds have coupon advantages and certain credit - sinking space, and have clear valuation - repair potential; the 5Y AAA urban investment bonds have low credit risk and good liquidity; the 5Y AAA - secondary capital bonds have a relatively reasonable valuation in their sector. For previously strong varieties, such as 5Y AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds and 10Y local government bonds, caution is recommended in allocation [65].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the bond market have led to concerns among investors regarding the performance of wealth management products, with many experiencing net value declines and early terminations [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market has been weakening, with the 30-year government bond futures down 3.72% and the 10-year government bond futures down 0.54% as of December 8 [1] - The decline in bond prices has directly impacted the net value of wealth management products, particularly fixed-income products [1] - A significant number of wealth management products have announced early terminations, with nearly a hundred products terminating between November 1 and December 9 [1][2] Group 2: Institutional Responses and Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the bond market's weakness to a combination of tightening liquidity and adjustments in policy expectations, with the central bank's shift to net absorption of liquidity contributing to the situation [3] - Concerns over new public fund fee regulations have also affected market sentiment, potentially leading to redemptions in bond funds [3] - Despite current market volatility, many analysts believe the adjustments are short-term, with no significant negative changes in the fundamental or policy landscape [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In light of the bond market fluctuations, maintaining asset stability and liquidity is crucial, with cash management products being recommended as a defensive strategy [4] - Investors are advised to focus on underlying assets, management capabilities, and product liquidity, rather than solely on returns [4] - Clear financial planning and appropriate product selection are emphasized as key to achieving investment goals amidst market volatility [4]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent economic data indicating a slowdown in China's economy, alongside significant monetary policy changes in Japan that may impact global markets [2][4]. Group 1: Important Events Review - On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released November economic data showing a decline in consumption growth to 1.3% (previously 2.9%), a cumulative fixed asset investment growth rate of -2.6% (previously -1.7%), and an industrial added value decrease to 4.8% (previously 4.9%), indicating increased pressure on the domestic economy, although achieving the annual growth target remains feasible [2]. - On December 19, the National Financial Regulatory Administration publicly solicited opinions on the draft "Asset-Liability Management Measures for Insurance Companies," which clarifies assessment methods and standards, implementing long-term evaluations to prevent excessive pursuit of business expansion and short-term profits that could compromise asset-liability management [2]. - On December 19, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike, raising the unsecured overnight call rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, with the decision passing unanimously 9-0 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond market showed slight recovery as negative factors were priced in, improving market sentiment and raising expectations for interest rate cuts and new public fund fee regulations, leading to a downward adjustment in yields from previously high levels [3]. - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments, particularly in growth sectors, influenced by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, which raised global market concerns and amplified volatility, while dividend and financial sectors helped lift the Shanghai Composite Index for three consecutive days [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with increased difficulty in investment compared to last year, influenced by various factors including policy changes and market dynamics [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets saw gains, with government bond futures rising across the board [2][3]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.6 basis points to 1.777% [2][3]. - The bond market has shown a wide fluctuation in yields this year, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating nearly 15 basis points since its issuance [3][8]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment returns from banks have significantly weakened year-on-year, impacting their profitability [1][7]. - The introduction of new public fund sales regulations and the resumption of value-added tax on bond interest income are causing institutions to adjust their strategies [7][9]. - The bond market's "dull knife cutting meat" trend has led to increased pressure on investors, with many institutions facing challenges in navigating the current market environment [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism for the bond market, noting that while trading enthusiasm may slightly recover, overall trading space remains limited [1][6]. - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations [1][6]. - There is a consensus that even if the fundamental data remains poor in the fourth quarter, the continued loose monetary policy may not significantly lower bond yields [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the new public fund fee regulations have led to a generally bearish sentiment towards bond funds, resulting in increased redemption pressure [1][3] - Data shows that in the first two days of the week, various bond products sold nearly 100 billion yuan worth of bonds, with significant sales of long-term government bonds and policy bank bonds [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent large-scale redemptions are not solely due to the new regulations but are also influenced by a combination of negative market events and sentiments [3] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a notable sell-off, with fund companies selling 682 billion yuan in bonds on September 9, making them the largest sellers in the market that day [2] - The new public fund fee regulations are expected to increase redemption fees for short-term holders, potentially reducing institutional investment in bond funds [2] - Market sentiment remains fragile, with even unverified negative news causing significant reactions from investors, leading to a cautious outlook on long-term bonds [3]