FICC周报 | 2025-06-22 成交平稳，银行板块再度活跃 市场分析 金融举措推动开放。宏观方面，6月18日至19日，2025陆家嘴论坛在上海举行，央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外 汇局等部门发布多项金融举措，助力高水平开放。央行将推出8项政策举措支持上海国际金融中心建设，包括设立 数字人民币国际运营中心、"先行先试"结构性货币政策工具创新等；金融监管总局将支持外资机构参与更多金融 业务试点；证监会将在科创板设置科创成长层，同时推出6项更具包容性、适应性的改革措施；外汇局将在全国实 施支持科研机构吸引利用外资、扩大科技型企业跨境融资便利等政策。海外方面，美国与欧盟正接近达成一项涵 盖多领域的互惠贸易协议，包括数字监管、环境政策及产业合作等领域。协议草案拟为美国科技企业提供监管合 规宽限期，以配合欧盟《数字市场法》实施进程，同时深化在造船业、关键矿产等战略产业的协作机制。但因未 纳入关税条款，协议最终落地仍存变数。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数周度收跌，上证指数收盘跌0.51%收于3359.9点，创业板指跌1.66%。行业方面， 板块指数跌多涨少，仅银行、通信、电子行业收红，美容护理、纺织服饰、医药生 ...

沪铅产业日报 2025-06-19 税政策变化带来的新增影响。故预计沪铅继续整体呈现震荡趋势。即将移仓换月，盘面继续盘整，操作上 建议，逢高空为主。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16925 | 115 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1976 | -30.5 | | | 07-08月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -10 | 10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 84572 | 2561 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1275 | 722 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 44387 | -1116 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 49811 | 1875 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 289475 | 2025 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16775 | 75 长江有色市场1#铅 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating a slowdown in future rate cuts and anticipating "considerably high inflation" in the coming months, which led to the dollar index rising to 99 before closing at 98.89, up 0.05% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.397%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.952%, reflecting initial declines followed by increases [1] - Gold prices fell by 0.60% to $3368.49 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and tariff-driven inflation concerns stemming from Trump's aggressive tariff agenda [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after reaching above $3450, falling over 1% and hitting a low of $3370, indicating a likely continuation of downward adjustments towards the $3290 support level [3] - The market is currently focused on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the implications of Trump's tariffs, which are expected to influence gold price movements [3] - Oil prices saw a sharp increase of over 13% last Friday, surpassing $77, but subsequently fell back to around $73, with expectations of continued volatility unless geopolitical tensions escalate further [5] Group 3 - The oil market is primarily affected by the conflict with Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact nearly 20% of global oil transport [3] - OPEC+ is currently in a phase of accelerated production increases, contributing to supply pressures in the oil market, which may lead to significant selling pressure if conflicts ease [5] - The recommendation for trading strategies suggests focusing on short positions in the oil market, particularly in the $74-$74.50 range, anticipating a drop to $69.50-$70 [5]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价震荡，布伦特08合约跌1.44%，SC08合约涨2.1%表现仍偏强。伊以冲突仍在持续，且 美国直接个入的可能性增加。据悉欧洲官员将与伊朗外长周五在日内瓦举行核谈判,但在美国确认 参与前伊朗的能源基础设施及霍尔木兹海峡通行相关的供应风险仍存。 上周美国DOE原油库存因净出 日增加而大幅下降1147.3万桶。原油仍持震荡偏强判断,投资者仍可继续持有低成本看涨期权应对 极端地缘风险。考虑到中东地缘风险升温对中质含硫原油的供应犹动更为直接，中东到中国的油轮 运费亦受到支撑,我们继续看涨SC较布伦特的价差。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美联储如期连续第四次维持利率不变,点阵恩显示官员们预期今年降息两次，但 预计不降息的人数上升。鲍威尔保持观望姿态，认为未来几个月会有关税驱动的通胀上升。以伊互 相进行新一轮轰炸，特朗普称美国不寻求停火，而是要求伊朗没有核武器，对是否介入冲突含糊其 辞。短期战争没有缓和迹象，关注后续进展，避险情绪存在反复，贵金属观望为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜震荡收跌，建议关注美铜关税溢价变动。美联储维持利率不变，继续下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell anticipates an increase in inflation driven by tariffs in the coming months as the impact of tariffs on U.S. consumers becomes more pronounced [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell indicated that the effects of tariffs on the supply chain take time to manifest, with many retailers currently selling goods imported before the tariffs were enacted [1] - The expectation is that inflation related to goods prices will rise during the summer due to these tariffs [1] - Specific categories of goods, such as personal computers and audiovisual equipment, have already shown price increases attributed to the tariff hikes [1]

Group 1 - The New York stock market showed mixed performance with all three major indices closing higher, driven by optimism surrounding the new round of US-China trade talks in London [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 105.11 points to close at 42,866.87, marking a 0.25% increase; the S&P 500 gained 32.93 points to finish at 6,038.81, a 0.55% rise; and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 123.75 points to close at 19,714.99, reflecting a 0.63% gain [1] - Among the sectors, ten out of eleven in the S&P 500 index saw gains, with the energy and consumer discretionary sectors leading at increases of 1.77% and 1.19% respectively, while the industrial sector declined by 0.44% [1] Group 2 - The World Bank revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.7% to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward adjustments [2] - Tesla's core automotive business fundamentals are reportedly weakening, with a potential 23% decrease in global deliveries for May, leading to concerns about profit margins in Q2; however, Tesla's stock price rose significantly by 5.67% to $326.09, recovering above levels seen before a drop on June 5 [2]