瑞讯银行高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表示，鉴于美国就业增长遭下修，美联储在试图预判关税驱动的 通胀时可能确实已落后于形势，这意味着未来几个月可能会出现更大幅度、更快速的降息，具体取决于 通胀表现。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to approximately $40.70, reaching a 14-year high due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2][6] - The likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is estimated at 87.6% according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cut is seen as favorable for non-yielding assets like silver [3] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that the labor market risks are increasing, suggesting a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [4] - Concerns over the credibility of U.S. economic policy have contributed to a weakening dollar, further supporting silver's price increase [5] - A recent court ruling deemed President Trump's tariffs "illegal," which may impact inflation driven by tariffs [5] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that silver prices have broken above the previous high of $39.53 set on July 23, indicating a bullish trend [6] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to around 70.00, signaling the formation of new bullish momentum [7] - Key support for silver is identified at the July 23 high of $39.53, while potential upward movement could reach the August 2011 high of $44.24 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's Bostic is concerned about whether tariffs will lead to a one-time price increase or result in more persistent inflation due to long-term implementation [1] - Bostic questions if the textbook model of inflation is applicable in the current environment, suggesting skepticism towards its validity [1] - He indicates that the prolonged implementation of tariffs may have lasting inflationary effects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated widespread price increases due to new tariffs have largely not materialized, surprising economists, but the reality is that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is gaining momentum [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Tariff Impact - In June, prices for frequently imported goods such as furniture, sports equipment, and appliances rose at the fastest pace in years, indicating that the cost transmission from tariffs is having a tangible impact on specific product categories [1] - The overall inflation data has been suppressed by declines in automobile prices and certain service categories, providing arguments for tariff proponents who claim that tariffs have not affected inflation [1][4] - Economists predict that inflation driven by tariffs will continue to strengthen in the coming months as companies face increasing pressure to raise prices [1][7] Group 2: Corporate Strategies and Inventory Management - Many companies have delayed the full impact of tariffs on consumer prices by absorbing increased costs rather than passing them on, and some have built inventory buffers before tariffs took effect [2][3] - Fastenal reported that despite attempts to diversify supply chains and build inventory, they have had to raise prices multiple times recently and may need to do so again in the future [4] Group 3: Global Price Dynamics - Foreign suppliers have partially offset the impact of tariffs by lowering export prices to the U.S. to maintain competitiveness, with global factory prices remaining subdued [5] - Japan's export prices have contracted for three consecutive months, and Chinese export prices for various goods have also shown declines [5][6] Group 4: Future Inflation Expectations - Economists warn that the current calm in inflation is temporary, and as companies deplete their pre-stocked inventory, they will be less willing to sacrifice profits [7] - If tariffs are fully transmitted, it is estimated that the recent tariffs could raise the preferred inflation indicator by approximately 0.4 percentage points [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains stable, providing some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to face downward pressure due to weakened demand. Affected by the marginal decline in national subsidy consumption, domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to show an overall oscillatory trend. As the contract is about to shift, the market will continue to consolidate. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,925 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,976 dollars/ton, down 30.5 dollars [2]. - The spread between the 07 - 08 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 84,572 lots, up 2,561 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,275 lots, up 722 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 44,387 tons, down 1,116 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 49,811 tons, up 1,875 tons; the LME lead inventory is 289,475 tons, up 2,025 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 33.19 dollars/ton, down 3.43 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,071 yuan, up 275 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.95%, down 16.33 percentage points; the output of recycled lead in the current month is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is 69.83 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.05 dollars; the output of primary lead in the current week is 3.48 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [2]. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,116.07 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 thousand pieces, down 425 thousand pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells is 1,654.65 points, down 9.14 points; the monthly automobile production is 260.4 thousand vehicles, down 44.06 thousand vehicles [2]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 164.7 thousand vehicles, up 7.3 thousand vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. The dot - plot shows two interest rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expect no rate cuts this year has increased to 7, and the expected rate cut next year is reduced to 1 time [2]. - The US State Department announced that the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda reached a peace agreement [2]. - Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 200 basis points, and 250 basis points would be even better [2]. - German Chancellor Merz hopes to reach an agreement on US - EU tariffs in the next few days [2]. - Putin said that the negotiation teams on the Russia - Ukraine issue are in contact, and the next meeting may be held after June 22 [2]. 3.7提示关注 - Overseas lead inventories are declining but still at a high level, while domestic inventories are starting to accumulate [2]. - The subsidy for electric vehicles has decreased, and the demand for electric vehicles has slowed down [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate remains low, which has an impact on the resumption of production of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating a slowdown in future rate cuts and anticipating "considerably high inflation" in the coming months, which led to the dollar index rising to 99 before closing at 98.89, up 0.05% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.397%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.952%, reflecting initial declines followed by increases [1] - Gold prices fell by 0.60% to $3368.49 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and tariff-driven inflation concerns stemming from Trump's aggressive tariff agenda [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after reaching above $3450, falling over 1% and hitting a low of $3370, indicating a likely continuation of downward adjustments towards the $3290 support level [3] - The market is currently focused on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the implications of Trump's tariffs, which are expected to influence gold price movements [3] - Oil prices saw a sharp increase of over 13% last Friday, surpassing $77, but subsequently fell back to around $73, with expectations of continued volatility unless geopolitical tensions escalate further [5] Group 3 - The oil market is primarily affected by the conflict with Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact nearly 20% of global oil transport [3] - OPEC+ is currently in a phase of accelerated production increases, contributing to supply pressures in the oil market, which may lead to significant selling pressure if conflicts ease [5] - The recommendation for trading strategies suggests focusing on short positions in the oil market, particularly in the $74-$74.50 range, anticipating a drop to $69.50-$70 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil is expected to remain oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and the spread of SC over Brent is expected to rise [1]. - Precious metals are recommended to be on the sidelines due to the repeated risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - Short positions in copper are recommended to be held [3]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, consider taking a long position in AD and a short position in AL when the spread widens [5]. - For alumina, consider short - selling on rebounds if the futures discount continues to repair [6]. - For zinc, short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Short positions in nickel are recommended to be held [9]. - A small number of short positions in far - month tin contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to mainly oscillate, with the main trend remaining bearish [12]. - Polysilicon is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly downward trend [13]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate [15]. - The upward space of coke and coking coal prices should not be overly optimistic [16][17]. - The price of manganese silicon is still under pressure [18]. - For ferrosilicon, observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [19]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [20]. - The cracking of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be under pressure [21]. - For asphalt, wait for the layout opportunity after the risk of geopolitical premium of crude oil is removed [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. - The urea futures market remains strong, but be wary of the tightening of export policies [24]. - For methanol, closely monitor relevant data and be wary of a high - level decline in the market if the conflict eases [25]. - For styrene, the price is mainly guided by oil prices, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [26]. - For polypropylene and polyethylene, the market is mainly driven by geopolitical risks, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement [27]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and caustic soda is under pressure at a high level [28]. - PX and PTA are strong in the short term but have potential risks in the medium term [29]. - Ethylene glycol is bullish in the short term and expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [30]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, the short - fiber supply - demand is improving, while the bottle - chip has potential for processing margin repair but with caution [31]. - Glass is recommended to be operated with caution due to the high - inventory and weak - demand pattern [32]. - For natural rubber and its related products, the strategy is to be bullish [33]. - Soda ash is recommended to adopt a high - level short - selling strategy [34]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - For vegetable oils, a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [36]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - For soybeans No.1, pay attention to weather guidance [38]. - Corn futures are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the weight - reduction rhythm of large farms [40]. - Egg prices are considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - For cotton, the operation strategy is to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43]. - For apples, wait and see and pay attention to bagging data [44]. - For wood, wait and see due to the weak price [45]. - For pulp, wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. - For stock indices, pay attention to the investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the subsequent development of macro - factors [47]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices oscillated. Brent 08 contract fell 1.44%, while SC08 contract rose 2.1%. The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the US may directly intervene. European officials will hold nuclear negotiations with the Iranian foreign minister. Supply risks remain before the US confirms participation. Last week, US DOE crude oil inventories dropped significantly by 1.1473 billion barrels due to increased net exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oil prices rise due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil - related futures follow suit but with smaller increases. The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for shipping and power generation is affected by high cracking valuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and demand is weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, oil prices rise, and asphalt follows. The increase in asphalt production is limited. The shipments of 54 sample refineries are increasing, and terminal demand is expected to improve. Current inventory is declining, but the BU cracking is under pressure before the geopolitical risk of oil prices is removed [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. Domestic chemical demand is recovering, but there is pressure on margins due to rising import costs. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure may lead to a decline. The market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the dot - plot shows a split on rate - cut expectations. The Israel - Iran conflict intensifies, and risk - aversion sentiment is repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the change in US copper tariff premium. The Fed maintained interest rates and lowered economic growth expectations. Short positions are recommended to be held [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum oscillated. The low - inventory situation deepens the Back structure, which is beneficial to long positions in the short term. However, downstream开工 is weakening, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [4]. - **Zinc**: The actual delivery of SHFE zinc 06 contract was 8,675 tons, and the 07 contract has a high position. The supply - demand in June is weak. Short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The high inventory of the outer market may open the import window. The market rumor of Tianneng's production cut led to a decline in SHFE lead. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel declined. The upstream price support weakened, and inventory increased. It is in a bearish trend, and short positions are recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the import of tin concentrates in May. A small number of short positions in far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market oscillated overnight. Supply is in the peak season, and port inventory is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Coke prices oscillated upward, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. Coking coal prices oscillated narrowly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the upward space of prices is limited [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices oscillated downward, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure. Ferrosilicon prices oscillated, and the supply - demand contradiction is small. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18][19]. - **Steel**: Night - session steel prices rose first and then fell. The off - season demand for rebar is weakening, and the inventory reduction slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, but inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: Iranian methanol plants have large - scale shutdowns and production cuts, and the shipping safety risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases. However, port inventory is low, and the expected rapid inventory build - up is likely to fail. The market is excited, but be wary of a decline if the conflict eases [25]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks lead to large oil - price fluctuations, which guide styrene prices. The supply of styrene increases, and the demand maintains a rigid support [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Geopolitical risks drive the polyolefin market. The demand for polyethylene is in the off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement. Polypropylene is also in the off - season, and the supply pressure increases [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is under pressure at a high level [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX and PTA opened high and then fell. The polyester filament sales are weak, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol fluctuated overnight. The supply is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and the industry supply - demand is slightly weakening. There are plans for large - scale plant maintenance, which may support the price [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The Israel - Iran conflict affects oil prices and soybean meal. The US soybean good - rate is slightly lower than expected, and weather is favorable for growth. Pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Vegetable oil prices are rising, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips due to the development of biodiesel [36]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The impact of external factors is not fully digested. The risk of dry weather in North America adds a weather premium. The short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak overnight. The substitution of wheat for corn exists, and inventory is going through destocking. The futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Live Pigs**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and the policy aims to stabilize prices. However, there is still pressure on pig supply in the later stage [40]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price is stable. There is short - term support from demand, but it is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton good - rate decreased, and the planting rate increased. Domestic cotton trading is average, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, ICE sugar oscillated. Brazilian production data is bearish. Domestic sugar imports are low, and inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. Market demand is declining, and the focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price oscillated. The import volume of radiata pine is expected to be low in June, and demand is relatively good in the off - season. Inventory is going through destocking, but the price is weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper - pulp futures price rose slightly. Port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The price is low, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. Financials - **Stock Indices**: A - shares oscillated narrowly. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the geopolitical situation is tense. Pay attention to investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the development of macro - factors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury - bond market oscillated, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The consumer goods trade - in policy is ongoing, and the bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [48].

Group 1 - The New York stock market showed mixed performance with all three major indices closing higher, driven by optimism surrounding the new round of US-China trade talks in London [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 105.11 points to close at 42,866.87, marking a 0.25% increase; the S&P 500 gained 32.93 points to finish at 6,038.81, a 0.55% rise; and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 123.75 points to close at 19,714.99, reflecting a 0.63% gain [1] - Among the sectors, ten out of eleven in the S&P 500 index saw gains, with the energy and consumer discretionary sectors leading at increases of 1.77% and 1.19% respectively, while the industrial sector declined by 0.44% [1] Group 2 - The World Bank revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.7% to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward adjustments [2] - Tesla's core automotive business fundamentals are reportedly weakening, with a potential 23% decrease in global deliveries for May, leading to concerns about profit margins in Q2; however, Tesla's stock price rose significantly by 5.67% to $326.09, recovering above levels seen before a drop on June 5 [2]