展望2026年，多家机构依然看好有色金属延续走强态势。相关分析指出，本轮有色行情，与2006年那轮 行情相比，不同之处在于：2006年"眉飞色舞"需求终端指向传统"地产基建"，而2025年这一轮行情，需 求终端指向"新质生产力"，包括新能源、新材料、AI、军工航天等新兴领域。 在大国博弈背景下，战略金属的稀缺性与战略价值进一步凸显，需求弹性显著高于传统工业金属。 12月10日，受降息预期催化，金银铜铝锂电等细分金属板块集体走强，截至11:05，有色金属ETF基金 (516650)盘中翻红涨0.76%，其持仓股盛新锂能涨超7%，国城矿业、雅化集团、兴业银锡等股纷纷异动 拉升，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.68%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨1.05%。 美联储12月降息预期升温，宏观面预期偏正面。有色原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应 端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026 年1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，宏观面预期正面+供 应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决议公布前资金出现获利回吐 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "downward inertia, bottoming rebound, and volume contraction with broad gains" after last week's significant drop, indicating a technical rebound in market sentiment [1] - As of the close on November 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% to 3,836.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.37% to 12,585.08 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.31% to 2,929.04 points, with total trading volume at 1.7 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.3 billion yuan from the previous Friday [2][3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index formed a small bullish candlestick above the 3,800-point level, indicating a typical technical resistance after a sharp decline [3] - Despite the broad gains in individual stocks, heavyweight stocks showed weak performance, and the lack of volume support suggests that the rebound may not be solid [3] - Key observations include whether the volume-contracted rebound can continue, if AI applications can take over from hardware as the new mainline, and whether the 3,865-point resistance can be broken [3] Industry and Hotspot Capture - A significant style switch occurred in the market, with funds abandoning lithium battery resources and computing hardware in favor of AI applications and military aerospace, marking a shift from supply-side speculation to demand-side investment [4] - AI applications saw a collective surge, with companies like BlueFocus, Shengrui, and others experiencing significant gains, driven by Alibaba's "Qianwen" app surpassing 10 million downloads and strong performance in US AI application stocks [5][6] - The military and commercial aerospace sectors also saw strong performance, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy expectations, with companies like Jianglong Shipbuilding and others benefiting from these trends [7] Forward Strategy - The current market shows a technical rebound after a sharp decline, with a focus on two signals: whether the 3,865-point resistance can be broken and if the AI application sector can maintain its momentum [8] - Mid-term strategies should focus on new mainlines such as AI applications and military aerospace while avoiding high-position hardware and pure resource themes [9] - Short-term strategies should consider low-position sectors with event-driven catalysts, employing a strategy of "mainline rotation, high-low switching, and rhythm management" to navigate the volatile market [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of the Nonferrous Metal Industry Leader ETF (159876) indicates significant capital inflow and optimism about the sector's future performance [1][6]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Industry Leader ETF saw a price increase of nearly 1.7% during intraday trading, currently up by 1.02% [1]. - Over the past three days, the ETF has attracted a total of 196 million yuan in investments, reflecting a positive outlook from large investors [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Key stocks such as Zhongfu Industrial, Zhongkuang Resources, and Tibet Mining led gains of over 3%, while several others, including Xinye Silver and Ganfeng Lithium, saw increases exceeding 2% [2][3]. - Major weighted stocks like Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold also experienced gains of over 1% [2][3]. Group 3: Performance Drivers - In terms of earnings, the Q3 2025 report shows that 56 out of 60 component stocks of the ETF reported profits, with 44 companies experiencing year-on-year net profit growth. Notably, Chuanjiang New Materials saw a 20-fold increase in net profit [5][6]. - The current bull market in nonferrous metals is driven by new demand from sectors such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace, contrasting with the previous market driven by real estate and infrastructure [6]. - Policy support includes a joint plan from eight departments to stabilize growth in the nonferrous metal industry and optimize supply structures [6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to boost nonferrous metal prices, as lower rates reduce borrowing costs for companies, thereby increasing demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [7]. - The ongoing global monetary easing cycle and the strategic importance of resources are anticipated to create a new supply-demand equilibrium in the nonferrous metals market [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts from Dongfang Securities and CITIC Securities predict that the nonferrous metals market will continue to see price increases, particularly for copper and cobalt, driven by supply constraints and unexpected demand in energy storage [7]. - The investment interest in commodities is expected to persist due to liquidity easing and increased efforts by countries to secure critical resources [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively engaged in the low-altitude economy and military aerospace sectors, focusing on the development of data service platforms for air traffic management [1] Group 1: Low-altitude Economy Initiatives - The company has developed a "Low-altitude Airspace Declaration Platform" and a "Low-altitude Comprehensive Monitoring Platform" to support low-altitude operations [1] - The Low-altitude Airspace Declaration Platform offers integrated declaration services, covering the entire process from airspace application to monitoring and usage [1] - The Low-altitude Monitoring Platform addresses the need for comprehensive monitoring in various scenarios, enhancing visibility and accuracy in low-altitude target monitoring [1] Group 2: Data Value Enhancement - The company is leveraging its expertise in air traffic management and data analysis to unlock the value of air traffic data [1] - Efforts are being made to improve the application capabilities of air traffic data, providing technical support for the company's growth in the low-altitude industry [1]