谁曾想，2026年开市仅两日，该板块涨势愈发疯狂，再度刷新市场预期。 截至1月6日收市，期货市场多个主力合约强势大涨： 2025年，有色金属板块强势霸榜年度涨幅榜前五，已然惊艳市场。 很显然，无论是期货的有色金属，还是股市里的资源股，都在近两年迎来了极为强势的大涨。 碳酸锂主力合约强势涨停8.99%，收报137940元/吨，价格重回2023年10月水平，较2025年中期已翻倍有余。 这无疑是一个非常积极的重磅信号。 沪银、铂金、钯金三大主力合约分别收涨7.06%、6.02%、5.16%；沪铜、沪锡、沪镍等工业金属大涨超4%。 就在最近1个月，白银、铂金、铜锡等多个金属品种在资金涌入下频频出现明显的逼空行情，可以说，除了铁铅等少数品种外，有色金属已全面进入超级 上涨大周期。 就在今天，在最近3年连续强势大涨的中国"金铜双冠王"紫金矿业今日盘中大涨6.5%，最高价保37.7元，市值一举突破1万亿元大关，成为A股第15家、有 色行业中唯一一家万亿市值巨头公司。 这背后，绝不是资金在持续无脑做多，而是宏观、行业和市场层面在发生非常重大的逻辑转变。 01 多重导火索集中引爆 多个有色金属的强势上涨，正体现出一个显著特征 ...

沪银、铂金、钯金三大主力合约分别收涨 7.06% 、 6.02% 、 5.16% ；沪铜、沪锡、沪镍等工业金属大涨超 4% 。 就在最近 1 个月，白银、铂金、铜锡等多个金属品种在资金涌入下频频出现明显的逼空行情，可以说，除了铁铅等少数品种外，有色 金属 已 全面 进入超级上涨大周期。 就在今天， 在最近 3 年连续强势大涨的中国"金铜双冠王"紫金矿业今日盘中大涨 6.5% ，最高价保 37.7 元，市值一举突破 1 万亿元大关， 成为 A 股第 15 家、有色行业中唯一一家万亿市值巨头公司。 作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 2025 年，有色金属板块强势霸榜年度涨幅榜前五，已然惊艳市场。 谁曾想， 2026 年开市仅两日，该板块涨势愈发疯狂，再度刷新市场预期。 截至 1 月 6 日收市，期货市场多个主力合约强势大涨： 碳酸锂主力合约强势涨停 8.99% ，收报 137940 元 / 吨，价格重回 2023 年 10 月水平，较 2025 年中期已翻倍有余。 很显然， 无论是期货的有色金属，还是股市里的资源股，都在近两年迎来了极为强势的大涨。 这无疑是一个非常 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant rally, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF reaching a historical high and attracting substantial capital inflows, indicating strong market confidence in the sector's future performance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) has seen a price increase of 4.4%, marking a continuous four-day rise and a record high in trading volume, with real-time transaction amounts nearing 46.22 million yuan [1]. - As of January 5, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF's total scale reached 879 million yuan, also a historical high, with a net subscription of 36.6 million units reported [1]. - Key stocks within the sector, such as Vanadium Titanium Co. and Tin Industry Co., have hit the daily limit, while companies like Aluminum Corporation of China and Huayou Cobalt have seen increases exceeding 8% [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are driving up non-ferrous metal prices by devaluing the dollar, making metals cheaper and increasing global demand [2]. - Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for companies, which is expected to boost demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, 56 out of 60 companies in the leading non-ferrous ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit, highlighting strong fundamentals in the sector [3]. - Notably, Chujiang New Materials reported a staggering 20-fold increase in net profit, with several other companies also experiencing significant profit growth [3]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The current non-ferrous bull market is characterized by demand from emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace, contrasting with previous cycles driven by real estate and infrastructure [3]. - Supply-side disruptions are exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance, further driving up metal prices and emphasizing their strategic value [3]. Group 5: Policy Support - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, including a joint plan from eight departments, are expected to enhance resource security and promote digital upgrades in the industry [3]. - Major infrastructure projects, such as the Yaxi Hydropower Project, are anticipated to create significant demand for non-ferrous metal materials [3]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to thrive, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics [4][6]. - The potential for a prolonged super cycle in non-ferrous metals is supported by factors such as a weak dollar, policy backing, and industrial upgrades [4].

回顾2025年的表现，有色金属板块以全年94.73%的涨幅，断层领跑全行业，展望2026年，有色金属板 块还能再涨吗？ | 庭昌 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | [区间首日] 2025-01-01 [区间尾日] 2025-12-31 | | | | | [单位] % ↓ | | | 1 801050.SI | 有色金属(申万) | | 94.73 | | 2 801770.SI | 通信(申万) | | 84.75 | | 3 801080.SI | 电子(申万) | | 47.88 | | 4 801230.SI | 综合(申万) | | 43.55 | 1、从宏观层面看，美联储降息周期推升有色金属价格：①美联储降息，货币贬值，投资者倾向持有更 保值的实物资产；②国际市场有色金属以美元计价，美联储降息带动美元贬值，美元计价的金属相对更 便宜，进一步增加全球买盘；③降息代表利率下降，企业借钱成本降低，利于企业扩张生产，带动铜、 铝等工业金属需求增加。 2、从业绩层面看，有色金属板块势如破竹的行情，有基本面支撑：2025年三季报显示 ...

今日（12月30日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格从开盘下挫2%，迅速拉升至水面以上， 现涨0.52%，彰显韧性，值得关注的是，截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购2880万份，昨天亦吸金1536万元，反映资 金看好有色金属板块后市表现，积极进场布局！ | 有色ETF华宝 | | 159876 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 1111 18 | +0.005 +0.52% | | | SZSE CNY 10:16:39 交易中 | | / 8 + | | 徐北巡史 | 华宝中证有色全属ETF | | | 实时申购陵回信息 | 由脑 5.0 | | | 笔数 | 31 | 0 | | 全额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 2880万 | C | 成份股方面，天山铝业、云铝股份领涨超4%，江西铜业、中国铝业、洛阳钼业、神火股份涨逾2%，厦门钨业、华友 钴业等个股跟涨。 | 序 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

今日（12月30日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格从开盘下挫2%，迅速拉 升至水面以上，现涨0.52%，彰显韧性，值得关注的是，截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购2880万 份，昨天亦吸金1536万元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，积极进场布局！ | 有色ETF华宝 | | 159876 | | --- | --- | --- | | 0.974 | +0.005 +0.52% | | | SZSE CNY 10:16:39 交易中 | | 1 . . + | | 净值走势 | 华宝中证有色金属ETF | | | 实时申购随回信息 | 申购 | 18-0 | | 笔数 | 31 | 0 | | 全额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 2880万 | 0 | 成份股方面，天山铝业、云铝股份领涨超4%，江西铜业、中国铝业、洛阳钼业、神火股份涨逾2%，厦 门钨业、华友钴业等个股跟涨。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交額 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - Lithium stocks led the rebound in the non-ferrous metal sector, with notable gains from companies such as Shengxin Lithium Energy up over 7% and Yahua Group up over 6% [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a 1.72% increase, with over 230 million yuan added in the past 10 days, indicating strong investor interest despite a recent monthly decline [1] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 90,600-96,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose to 89,200-92,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton [3] Group 2 - Long-term outlook for the lithium industry is positive, with expectations of a turning point in 2026 driven by steady domestic demand and increasing energy storage needs [3] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are expected to boost the non-ferrous metal sector by making physical assets more attractive and reducing borrowing costs for companies [3] - The non-ferrous metal market is anticipated to maintain a bullish trend, with a focus on "new productive forces" as the driving demand factor, supported by China's rapid industrial growth [4] Group 3 - The MACD golden cross signal indicates a positive trend for certain stocks, suggesting potential investment opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showing strong performance and attracting significant capital inflow, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) saw an increase of over 1.95%, currently up 1.72%, and has recovered above the 10-day moving average [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted 233 million yuan in capital, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - As of November 27, the ETF's latest scale is 672 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major stocks contributing to the ETF's performance include Shengxin Lithium Energy and Guocheng Mining, both rising over 7%, with Yahua Group close to 6% [3]. - Other notable stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, both increasing by over 1% [3]. Group 3: Market Drivers - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [3]. - The price of gold on COMEX has surpassed 4200 USD/oz, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The current non-ferrous metal bull market is characterized as a "new quality productivity bull market," driven by demand from emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, alongside supply-side disruptions [5]. - Policy support includes a joint plan from eight departments to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, emphasizing resource security and digital upgrades [5]. - Analysts predict a new cycle of supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with potential for further market advancements by 2026 [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) provides comprehensive coverage across various metals, making it a suitable option for investors looking to diversify their exposure to the sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) showing significant price increases and attracting substantial investment, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of over 1.95%, currently up 1.72%, and has recovered its 10-day moving average [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted 233 million yuan in investments, reflecting strong market interest [1]. - As of November 27, the ETF's latest scale is 672 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major stocks leading the gains include Shengxin Lithium Energy and Guocheng Mining, both up over 7%, with Yahua Group rising nearly 6% [3]. - Other stocks such as Xinyi Silver Tin, Zhongkuang Resources, and Yongxing Materials also showed positive performance, contributing to the overall sector growth [3]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The recent speeches from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [4]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to support the entire non-ferrous metal sector, as lower rates typically lead to increased demand for physical assets like metals [5]. Group 4: Positive Catalysts for Non-Ferrous ETF - In the latest quarterly report, 56 out of 60 component stocks of the non-ferrous leader ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year net profit growth [7]. - The current non-ferrous bull market is driven by new demand from sectors such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace, contrasting with previous cycles reliant on real estate and infrastructure [7]. - Policy support includes a joint plan from eight departments to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, enhancing resource security and promoting digital upgrades [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, with expectations for further advancements in the bull market by 2026 [7][8]. - The non-ferrous leader ETF and its associated funds provide comprehensive exposure to various metals, making them suitable for risk diversification in investment portfolios [8].

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) indicates significant capital inflow and optimism towards the nonferrous metal sector, driven by performance, industry dynamics, policy support, and macroeconomic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, 56 out of 60 constituent companies of the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current nonferrous metal bull market is characterized as a "new productivity bull market," with demand driven by emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, while supply-side disruptions have intensified supply-demand conflicts, leading to higher metal prices [1]. Group 3: Policy Support - The joint issuance of the "Nonferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" by eight departments aims to strengthen strategic resource guarantees and promote digital upgrades in the industry [1]. - Policies aimed at optimizing industry supply structures are also in place, alongside large-scale infrastructure projects like the Yaxi Hydropower Project, which create demand for nonferrous metal raw materials [1]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to boost nonferrous metal prices [1]. - The global monetary easing cycle and the strategic importance of resources are anticipated to drive a new supply-demand balance in the nonferrous metal sector [2].