Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In December 2025, China's textile product exports weakened again, with yarn, fabrics, and products amounting to USD 12.58 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year; clothing and accessories exports were USD 13.41 billion, down 10.2%; and footwear exports were USD 3.91 billion, down 17.4% [2] - The recent stability of the RMB exchange rate has alleviated concerns about rapid appreciation, suggesting a focus on quality OEM companies such as Huali Group, leading auxiliary material supplier Weixing Co., and steadily expanding Kai Run Co. [2] - The report highlights a significant increase in wool auction prices due to strong demand, with the Eastern Market Index (EMI) for Australian wool rising by 107 Australian cents/kg [2] - The report suggests monitoring companies like New Australia Co. and Baolong Oriental, which have high dividend intentions, as well as Taihua New Materials, which may benefit from anti-involution policies in the chemical industry [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Review - The textile and apparel sector underperformed against the CSI 300 index, with the Jiangsu textile index declining by 0.82% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300, resulting in a 0.25 percentage point underperformance [9] Section 2: Major Raw Material Prices and Industry Tracking (1) Major Raw Material Price Trends - As of January 16, 2026, cotton prices were at CNY 16,002/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09%; polyester POY was CNY 6,700/ton, up 2.29%; and nylon POY remained stable at CNY 11,600/ton [21][23] (2) Export Data Tracking - In December 2025, China's textile exports were USD 12.58 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year; clothing exports were USD 13.41 billion, down 10.2%; and footwear exports were USD 3.91 billion, down 17.4% [29][31] - Vietnam's textile exports in December 2025 reached USD 3.65 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, while footwear exports were USD 2.20 billion, up 4.3% [35][37] (3) Domestic and Overseas Apparel Consumption Tracking - In November 2025, China's retail sales growth was 1.3%, with apparel and footwear sales growing by 3.5% [39] - In October 2025, U.S. apparel wholesale inventory was USD 28.04 billion, with a stock-to-sales ratio of 2.04 [40]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The downstream demand for polyester filament is weak, leading to increased inventory levels and a heightened sentiment for clearing stock and receivables as the Chinese New Year approaches [2] - The price spread for domestic key refining projects is 2502.21 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.76 CNY/ton (+0.03%) week-on-week, while the price spread for foreign key refining projects is 1152.16 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 67.70 CNY/ton (-5.55%) [3] - Brent crude oil's average price for the week ending January 9, 2026, is 61.61 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.27% [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The international oil price has fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Venezuela and Iran, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 2.59 USD and 1.80 USD per barrel respectively from January 2 to January 9, 2026 [13] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6405.29 CNY/ton, 7551.57 CNY/ton, and 5258.57 CNY/ton respectively [13] Chemical Sector - Chemical product prices are experiencing fluctuations, with polyethylene prices showing stability while polypropylene prices are under pressure due to increased maintenance of production facilities [2] - The price of EVA has increased slightly, with a current average of 9600.00 CNY/ton, while the price of pure benzene remains stable at 5300.00 CNY/ton [49] Polyester & Nylon Sector - The polyester and nylon industry chain prices are stable, with PTA prices slightly decreasing and the demand for polyester filament continuing to decline [2] - The sentiment for clearing stock is growing stronger as textile market orders are limited, leading to increased inventory levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The textile and apparel industry in Shantou is rapidly advancing, with a focus on production and market expansion, particularly through the establishment of a digital smart factory and the development of a comprehensive industrial layout during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - Shantou's textile and apparel industry is implementing a "one city, one exhibition, one chain" layout, with significant infrastructure already in place, including 285,000 square meters of the Shantou International Textile City and over 600 registered enterprises [1]. - The industry is prioritizing the promotion of overseas markets and the development of local brands, with plans to create a talent incubation platform in collaboration with educational institutions [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "New Four Major Projects" are being introduced to enhance the textile and apparel sector, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and building a modern industrial system [2]. - Shantou has launched six nylon projects with an annual production capacity of 472,000 tons, with plans to add five more projects by 2025, aiming for a total capacity of 892,000 tons and ultimately reaching 1 million tons [2]. - A talent innovation center is being established in partnership with educational institutions, targeting the recruitment and training of over 1,000 professionals in relevant fields over the next three years [2].

Group 1: Company Overview - Hengyi Petrochemical is a leading integrated enterprise in the "refining-oil-chemical-fiber" industry chain, focusing on a strategic positioning of "one drop of oil, two threads" [2][3] - The company has established a unique dual-main business model of "polyester + nylon" through the Brunei refining project, creating a closed-loop from crude oil processing to chemical fiber products [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of CNY 83.885 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 231 million, with a year-to-date net profit growth of 0.08% [4] - As of September 30, 2025, total assets amounted to CNY 1115.10 billion, and net assets attributable to shareholders were CNY 24.458 billion [4] Group 3: Market Insights - Southeast Asia is projected to be the largest net importer of refined oil due to insufficient infrastructure investment, despite having rich oil and gas resources [4][5] - The region's oil demand is expected to increase from 5 million barrels per day to 6.4 million barrels per day by 2035, accounting for 25% of global energy demand growth in the next decade [5] Group 4: Polyester Industry Outlook - The company holds a leading position in polyester production, with a diverse range of products including long filaments, short fibers, and chips [5][6] - Domestic retail sales in China grew by 5% year-on-year, with apparel and textile categories increasing by 3.1% [5][6] Group 5: Project Developments - The Qinzhou project aims for an annual production capacity of 1.2 million tons of caprolactam and nylon, with the first phase successfully entering trial production [7][8] - The project integrates advanced proprietary technologies, optimizing energy consumption and production costs, and is expected to significantly enhance the company's competitive position in the nylon market [8] Group 6: Corporate Governance - The company decided not to adjust the conversion price of Hengyi convertible bonds due to various market factors affecting stock prices, ensuring the protection of investor interests [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the textile and apparel industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 12%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 4.1 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 first-level industries [4][10] - The apparel and home textile segment has seen an 11.3% increase, while the textile manufacturing segment rose by 9.6%, and the accessories segment outperformed with a 17.4% increase [4][10] - The report highlights a potential recovery in demand for textile manufacturing due to stable domestic consumption and a resilient export market, particularly in the U.S. [4][19] - The sleep economy is expanding rapidly, driven by increasing health awareness and consumer spending on sleep-related products [4][63] - The gold and jewelry sector faces short-term demand suppression due to rising gold prices, but consumer spending on gold jewelry remains strong [4][63] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 27.48, above the historical average since January 2020 [4][14] - The apparel and home textile segment has a TTM P/E ratio of 29.07, while the textile manufacturing segment stands at 23.9, and the accessories segment at 30.27, all above historical averages [4][14] Textile Manufacturing - Raw material prices are at historical lows, with cotton and synthetic fiber prices declining, while Australian wool prices have recently increased [4][19] - Domestic retail sales are showing steady growth, with apparel sales experiencing a slight recovery [4][30] - Export performance is affected by fluctuating tariffs and weak external demand, with a 4.4% year-on-year decline in apparel exports from January to November [4][43] Apparel and Home Textiles - The sleep economy is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to exceed 500 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased consumer awareness and spending on sleep health products [4][66] - The outdoor sports market is also expanding, with a trend towards specialization and segmentation, supported by rising consumer income levels [4][63] Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, temporarily suppressing demand for gold jewelry, but overall consumer budgets for gold jewelry are increasing [4][63] - The report notes that consumer preferences are shifting towards lighter and more innovative gold products, with a focus on craftsmanship and cultural connections [4][63] Investment Strategy - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong barriers in production capacity, technology, and customer relationships within the textile manufacturing sector, such as Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [4][63] - For the apparel and home textile sector, it suggests focusing on high-growth segments related to the sleep economy and outdoor sports [4][63]

Group 1 - The Indian government's recent decision to revoke the mandatory BIS certification for 14 key polyester products, including PTA and MEG, has removed significant barriers to trade between China and India, allowing these products to return to a state of free circulation [1] - China has been the primary source of polyester imports for India, and the implementation of BIS certification in 2023 had tightened export channels, leading to a 43.26% year-on-year decline in China's polyester exports to India, amounting to 467,600 tons in 2024 [1] - The polyester supply chain is highly interconnected, with PTA as a core raw material accounting for 60%-70% of production costs, and over 95% of its use concentrated in the polyester sector, indicating that changes in PTA supply and demand will impact the entire industry [1] Group 2 - The immediate effect of the policy reversal was evident, as domestic polyester factories received a surge in inquiries from India, leading to a significant increase in orders, particularly for FDY, which will subsequently boost PTA demand [2] - Following the certification cancellation, it is expected that China will fill India's monthly PTA supply gap of 150,000 to 180,000 tons, potentially reversing the decline in exports and alleviating the oversupply pressure in the domestic PTA industry [2] - The policy change is also expected to benefit related industries, such as nylon products, which have a strong overlap with Indian textile customers, and domestic nylon manufacturers could leverage this opportunity to increase exports to India [2] Group 3 - Companies need to seize this window of opportunity by quickly responding to customer demands and expanding market penetration while being cautious of potential risks, such as reliance on a single market, to ensure that the policy benefits translate into sustainable high-quality industry growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hengyi Petrochemical's recent share buyback announcement and the subsequent stock price drop raise questions about market sentiment and investor confidence despite the positive news [3][6]. Group 1: Share Buyback Details - On December 15, 2025, Hengyi Petrochemical announced that its controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Hengyi Group, and its concerted parties increased their holdings by approximately 1.22 billion shares for about 10 billion yuan, while another party, Hangzhou Hengyi Investment, acquired about 478.4 million shares for 3.94 billion yuan [4][5]. - The total increase in shareholding represents 4.72% of the company's total share capital, raising the combined holding of Hengyi Group and Hengyi Investment from 50.28% to 55.00% [4][5]. Group 2: Stock Price Reaction - Following the announcement, Hengyi Petrochemical's stock price fell significantly, with a maximum intraday drop of over 9%, closing down 8.02% [6][11]. - The stock's poor performance despite the buyback announcement may be attributed to the context of previous large block trades, where significant shares were sold from the company's employee stock ownership plan [6][7]. Group 3: Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The fourth phase of the employee stock ownership plan sold approximately 114 million shares at a significant loss, with the average purchase price being 12.25 yuan per share, while the recent sale price was around 8.23 yuan [11][12]. - The total investment in the fourth phase was close to 1.39 billion yuan, and the total loss from the sale is estimated to be around 30% or more, indicating a substantial financial impact on the employees involved [11][12]. Group 4: Financial Performance Context - Hengyi Petrochemical has experienced fluctuating financial performance, with net profits exceeding 3 billion yuan annually from 2019 to 2021, but showing losses of 1.08 billion yuan in 2022 and modest profits of 4.35 billion yuan and 2.34 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively [17].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal decline in demand and weak cost support, leading to a downward trend in chemical product price spreads [2] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2527.61 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 22.27 CNY/ton (+0.89%), while the international key refining project price spread is 1330.98 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.23 CNY/ton (-0.47%) [3] - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 62.00 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.73% [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Positive signals in China-US trade relations boosted market risk appetite, while concerns over Russian supply supported international oil prices [2] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices on December 12, 2025, were 61.12 USD/barrel and 57.44 USD/barrel, respectively, down by 2.63 USD/barrel and 2.64 USD/barrel from December 5, 2025 [2] - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with diesel and aviation kerosene prices in Southeast Asia experiencing minor increases, while other regions saw price declines [2] Chemical Sector - The industry is entering a demand off-season, with weak cost support leading to a decline in chemical product prices and spreads [2] - Polyolefins prices and spreads have decreased due to a continuous decline in terminal operating levels [2] - EVA prices have dropped due to supply pressure from new installations and weak demand, with the average price at 10028.57 CNY/ton [2] - Benzene prices remained stable, with a slight increase in spreads, while styrene prices increased due to tight supply [2] Major Refining Companies - Stock price changes for six major private refining companies as of December 12, 2025, include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-4.69%), Hengli Petrochemical (-5.22%), Dongfang Shenghong (-0.96%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-1.09%), Tongkun Co. (-6.62%), and Xin Fengming (-9.99%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping investment logic in cyclical industries [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [1] - The technology sector has experienced a substantial cumulative increase, with the electronics industry rising by 45% and the communication equipment sector by over 38%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 14.7% [4] - The concentration of institutional holdings in the technology sector has reached nearly historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings exceeding 40.16%, indicating a risk of overcrowding [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed three major measures for the chemical industry in 2026, signaling a shift from mere advocacy to substantial implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has extended to industry self-discipline, with products like long silk, PTA, and urea achieving industry collaboration through "production limits to maintain prices + price alliances + punitive agreements" [10] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a supply-side improvement driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided elimination," with fixed asset investments in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [5][6] - The demand side is supported by both domestic recovery and overseas improvement, with textile and apparel exports increasing by 8.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" wave include selecting leading companies with strong management systems and cost advantages [14] - Specific sectors to focus on include: 1. Petrochemicals: Expected to see a turning point due to supply contraction and demand upgrades [15] 2. Coal chemicals: Benefiting from policy catalysts and cost advantages, with potential for profit recovery [16] 3. Polyester filament and PTA: Leading sectors in the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, currently entering an inventory digestion phase [17]

Core Viewpoint - Caprolactam is primarily used for producing nylon, with continuous growth in nylon capacity since 2011 driving the sustained establishment of caprolactam capacity in China. By 2024, China's caprolactam capacity is expected to reach approximately 6.94 million tons per year, with a production of 6.543 million tons and a consumption of 6.49 million tons per year. Entering 2025, the downstream demand for caprolactam is expected to slow significantly, leading to "weak costs, weak demand, and high inventory" pressures, causing prices to drop to a low point. In response, the caprolactam industry has initiated a "de-involution" process, with industry association members agreeing to implement a 20% production cut and raise product prices by 100 yuan per ton. It is believed that with the continued execution of "de-involution" measures, the supply-demand structure of the caprolactam industry is expected to improve [1][4]. Production and Demand Summary - In 2024, China's caprolactam capacity is projected to be around 6.94 million tons per year, with a production of 6.543 million tons and a consumption of 6.49 million tons per year. New capacity additions in 2024 will total 1.15 million tons per year, including new installations from Hunan Petrochemical (300,000 tons/year), Luxi Chemical (300,000 tons/year), Hubei Sanning (400,000 tons/year), and Hualu Hensheng's capacity expansion [2][3]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for caprolactam consumption from 2021 to 2025 is 13.5%, although demand growth rates will vary by year. Demand growth is expected to be robust in 2023-2024, but will significantly slow in 2025, leading to pressures of "weak costs, weak demand, and high inventory" [2][3]. Industry Response - The caprolactam industry has initiated a "de-involution" process due to increasing issues of overcapacity and price chaos. An industry meeting on November 5, 2025, confirmed the urgency of this initiative, with participants agreeing to implement a 20% production cut and raise prices by 100 yuan per ton. As of late October to early November, the caprolactam supply side has seen increased maintenance of some facilities, reducing capacity utilization to around 86%, and the weekly supply-demand balance has turned negative, alleviating some inventory pressure [3][4].