每经记者｜章光日 每经编辑｜程鹏 吴永久 不久前，恒逸石化全资子公司广西恒逸新材料有限公司因在门头悬挂"进入厂区，请自觉放弃一切自由"的大字标语而陷入舆情风波，而近期恒逸石化发布 的增持公告又牵出一段"心酸往事"。 图片来源：潇湘晨报 2025年12月15日晚间，恒逸石化发布了关于控股股东及其一致行动人增持公司股份进展的公告。该公告显示，2025年12月15日，公司控股股东浙江恒逸集 团有限公司（以下简称"恒逸集团"）以大宗交易的方式，增持公司股份约1.22亿股，增持金额约为10亿元（不含手续费）；控股股东的一致行动人杭州恒 逸投资有限公司（以下简称"恒逸投资"）以大宗交易的方式，增持公司股份约4784万股，增持金额为3.94亿元（不含手续费）。 以恒逸石化2025年12月10日总股本计算，恒逸集团及恒逸投资本次合计增持股份占公司总股本的4.72%，恒逸集团及恒逸投资合计持股比例从50.28%增加 至55.00%；若剔除恒逸石化回购专用账户中的股份数量，恒逸集团及恒逸投资合计持股比例从54.88%增加至60.03%。 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 权益变动前 | | 权益变动后 | | | --- | --- ...

刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：需求淡季 与成本支撑偏弱，化工品价格价差下行 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 12 月 12 日当周，国内重点大 炼化项目价差为 2527.61 元/吨，环比变化+22.27 元/吨（+0.89%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1330.98 元/吨，环比变化-6.23 元/吨（- 0.47%）。截至 12 月 12 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical point of style rebalancing by the end of 2025, with the ongoing "anti-involution" policy reshaping investment logic in cyclical industries [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, the A-share market has shown a significant "technology + cyclical" dual-driven pattern, indicating a transition from a single growth line to a balanced allocation of "growth + value" [1] - The technology sector has experienced a substantial cumulative increase, with the electronics industry rising by 45% and the communication equipment sector by over 38%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 14.7% [4] - The concentration of institutional holdings in the technology sector has reached nearly historical peaks, with TMT sector holdings exceeding 40.16%, indicating a risk of overcrowding [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed three major measures for the chemical industry in 2026, signaling a shift from mere advocacy to substantial implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has extended to industry self-discipline, with products like long silk, PTA, and urea achieving industry collaboration through "production limits to maintain prices + price alliances + punitive agreements" [10] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a supply-side improvement driven by "downward capacity cycles + policy-guided elimination," with fixed asset investments in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September 2025 [5][6] - The demand side is supported by both domestic recovery and overseas improvement, with textile and apparel exports increasing by 8.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" wave include selecting leading companies with strong management systems and cost advantages [14] - Specific sectors to focus on include: 1. Petrochemicals: Expected to see a turning point due to supply contraction and demand upgrades [15] 2. Coal chemicals: Benefiting from policy catalysts and cost advantages, with potential for profit recovery [16] 3. Polyester filament and PTA: Leading sectors in the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, currently entering an inventory digestion phase [17]

Core Viewpoint - Caprolactam is primarily used for producing nylon, with continuous growth in nylon capacity since 2011 driving the sustained establishment of caprolactam capacity in China. By 2024, China's caprolactam capacity is expected to reach approximately 6.94 million tons per year, with a production of 6.543 million tons and a consumption of 6.49 million tons per year. Entering 2025, the downstream demand for caprolactam is expected to slow significantly, leading to "weak costs, weak demand, and high inventory" pressures, causing prices to drop to a low point. In response, the caprolactam industry has initiated a "de-involution" process, with industry association members agreeing to implement a 20% production cut and raise product prices by 100 yuan per ton. It is believed that with the continued execution of "de-involution" measures, the supply-demand structure of the caprolactam industry is expected to improve [1][4]. Production and Demand Summary - In 2024, China's caprolactam capacity is projected to be around 6.94 million tons per year, with a production of 6.543 million tons and a consumption of 6.49 million tons per year. New capacity additions in 2024 will total 1.15 million tons per year, including new installations from Hunan Petrochemical (300,000 tons/year), Luxi Chemical (300,000 tons/year), Hubei Sanning (400,000 tons/year), and Hualu Hensheng's capacity expansion [2][3]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for caprolactam consumption from 2021 to 2025 is 13.5%, although demand growth rates will vary by year. Demand growth is expected to be robust in 2023-2024, but will significantly slow in 2025, leading to pressures of "weak costs, weak demand, and high inventory" [2][3]. Industry Response - The caprolactam industry has initiated a "de-involution" process due to increasing issues of overcapacity and price chaos. An industry meeting on November 5, 2025, confirmed the urgency of this initiative, with participants agreeing to implement a 20% production cut and raise prices by 100 yuan per ton. As of late October to early November, the caprolactam supply side has seen increased maintenance of some facilities, reducing capacity utilization to around 86%, and the weekly supply-demand balance has turned negative, alleviating some inventory pressure [3][4].

Group 1 - The company has achieved full production capacity for its 3,600 tons of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene products, resulting in a balance between production and sales [2] - The 80,000 tons nylon project is currently in a critical stage of capacity ramp-up, with related capacity being steadily released as planned [2] - The company encourages stakeholders to pay attention to its regular reports and announcements for further updates on progress [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hengyi Petrochemical is positioned as a leading integrated enterprise in the "refining-chemical-fiber" industry chain, focusing on technological innovation and green low-carbon upgrades to maintain its competitive edge in both domestic and international markets [2][8]. Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - Hengyi Petrochemical achieved an operating revenue of 83.885 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.08% [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported total assets of 111.51 billion yuan and net assets attributable to shareholders of 24.458 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The Southeast Asian refined oil market is expected to see a growing supply-demand gap, with the International Energy Agency predicting oil demand in the region to increase from 5 million barrels per day to 6.4 million barrels per day by 2035 [3]. - The region's GDP growth is projected to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam expected to grow at rates of 5.1%, 6.1%, and 6.1% respectively, driving demand for refined products [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Insights - The polyester industry is anticipated to experience steady growth in downstream demand, with domestic retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The new capacity growth in the polyester sector is slowing, with only 650,000 tons of new polyester filament capacity added in the first half of 2025, leading to a higher market concentration among leading enterprises [4]. Group 4: Project Developments - The first phase of the Qinzhou project has successfully entered trial production, featuring a comprehensive integration of various production processes [6]. - The Brunei refining project is progressing smoothly, with updates to be announced in due course [6]. Group 5: Technological Advancements - As of June 30, 2025, Hengyi Petrochemical holds 566 effective patents, with 500 related to research and development, and 66 in intelligent manufacturing [7]. - The proportion of differentiated fibers in the company's product structure has increased to 27%, indicating a strong position in the industry [7].

Group 1 - The company has achieved full production capacity for its 3,600 tons of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene products, resulting in a balance between production and sales [1] - The 80,000 tons nylon project is currently in a critical stage of capacity ramp-up, with related capacity being steadily released as planned [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector in A-shares continues its strong performance, with specific segments like phosphorus and fluorine chemicals showing positive stock movements, driven by self-regulatory actions to stabilize prices and reduce supply [1] Group 1: Industry Actions - The caprolactam industry has initiated a self-regulatory action to reduce production by 20% to alleviate inventory and price pressures, with plans to increase product prices by 100 yuan per ton [2] - This self-regulation is a response to significant losses in the industry, with losses per ton exceeding 600 yuan in recent months, prompting companies to adopt measures to balance supply and demand [2] - The proactive supply adjustments have led to a negative weekly supply-demand difference, indicating a successful transition into a destocking phase, which is expected to support price stabilization [2] Group 2: Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to maintain good market price order, providing strong backing for the industry's self-regulatory actions [3] - The self-regulatory actions in the caprolactam sector are seen as a means to protect market price order and ensure long-term industry health [3] Group 3: Market Confidence - The self-regulatory trend is spreading across various chemical sub-industries, with the polyester filament industry previously adopting a price stabilization strategy [4] - Analysts predict that the polyester filament industry will see a decline in actual production capacity in 2024, leading to a more orderly supply increase [4] - The organic silicon industry is also showing positive self-regulatory trends, with no new capacity expected from 2025 to 2026, indicating a potential for profit recovery [4] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Current sectors such as agrochemicals, refrigerants, bioenergy, tires, and metallic chromium are in an upward cycle, with main business growth expected to remain high [5] - The ongoing push for carbon neutrality is optimizing the supply structure in high-energy-consuming chemical industries, benefiting leading companies with core technological advantages and significant scale effects [5] - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, enhancing the competitive advantages of leading enterprises [5]

Summary of Hengyi Petrochemical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengyi Petrochemical - **Date**: Q3 2025 Conference Call Key Points Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Hengyi Petrochemical achieved a near breakeven point with a total profit of 230 million yuan for the first three quarters [2][4] - The polyester segment was the largest contributor, generating 800 million yuan in revenue, with 120 million yuan in Q3 alone [2][4] - The company earned 130 million yuan from its stake in China Merchants Bank [2][4] - Losses were reported in the caprolactam, PTA, and refining segments, with PTA losing 160 million yuan in Q3 and refining losing over 30 million yuan [2][4] Market Dynamics - The average price differential for diesel in October reached 24 USD, up from 14 USD in the same period last year, while gasoline price differential doubled to 12 USD [2][4] - Styrene price differential fell to 100 USD, down from last year's peak of 200-300 USD, influenced by adjustments in European facilities [2][4] - The operating rate of Hengyi Petrochemical is approximately 80%, consistent with the industry average [2][3] Supply and Demand - The bottle chip production has been reduced by 10-20% due to new capacity leading to supply-demand imbalance [2][3] - The nylon market is experiencing cash flow and profit declines due to increased supply, with an additional 770,000 tons entering the market, representing about 10% of total market volume [2][6] - Future production plans are expected to decrease over the next two years, which may help absorb excess supply [2][6] Strategic Initiatives - Hengyi Petrochemical is focusing on research breakthroughs and differentiated products, avoiding further investments in redundant capacity [3][13] - The company has signed a 1 million-ton agreement with the Jingzhou government, but actual implementation volume remains uncertain [3][13] - The Brunei project is progressing, with a total investment of 5 billion USD for the second phase, where Hengyi holds a 70% stake [3][11][13] Collaboration and Industry Position - Hengyi maintains a collaborative approach with Rongsheng Petrochemical in PTA and bottle chip sectors, supporting industry price maintenance and joint production cuts [3][16] - The company is actively participating in discussions regarding production cuts in the PTA sector, although no agreements have been reached yet [3][5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved profitability from the Guangxi project, which is currently in trial production, with expectations of becoming a leading player in the nylon sector [2][12] - The Brunei project is expected to enhance cost advantages once the second phase is operational, optimizing material balance and increasing the proportion of profitable products [3][20] - The Southeast Asian market is characterized by a supply-demand gap, with Hengyi positioned to benefit from regional growth and proximity to key markets [3][18][19] Risks and Challenges - The company faces pressure on profitability from the Brunei project, despite some revenue from refined oil products [3][11] - The nylon market's cash flow is currently negative, and the company is implementing production cuts to stabilize prices [2][6][10] Conclusion - Hengyi Petrochemical is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability and maintaining competitive positioning in the polyester and refining sectors while addressing supply-demand imbalances and collaborating with industry peers for sustainable growth [2][3][4][5][6][11][12][13][20]

Company Overview - Hengyi Petrochemical is a leading integrated enterprise in the "refining-chemical-fiber" industry chain, focusing on a strategic positioning of "one drop of oil, two strands of silk" [2] - The company has established a unique dual-main business model of "polyester + nylon" through the Brunei refining project, creating a closed-loop from crude oil processing to chemical fiber products [2][3] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 83.885 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 231 million, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 0.08% [4] - As of September 30, 2025, total assets amounted to CNY 111.51 billion, and net assets attributable to shareholders were CNY 24.458 billion [4] Southeast Asia Market Outlook - Southeast Asia is the largest net importer of refined oil globally due to insufficient infrastructure investment, despite having rich oil and gas resources [4] - The GDP growth rate for ASEAN is projected to maintain at 4.5% in 2025, with Indonesia at 5.1% and the Philippines and Vietnam at 6.1%, driving demand for refining products [4] - Oil demand in Southeast Asia is expected to rise from 5 million barrels per day to 6.4 million barrels per day by 2035, with the region projected to account for 25% of global energy demand growth in the next decade [4][6] Polyester Industry Trends - The company holds a leading position in polyester production, with a diverse range of products including long fibers, short fibers, and chips [7] - Domestic retail sales in China grew by 5% year-on-year, with clothing and textile categories increasing by 3.1% [7] - The polyester industry is expected to see a concentration of market share as outdated capacities are phased out and environmental regulations tighten [8][9] Brunei Refining Project - The second phase of the Brunei refining project is progressing smoothly, with updates to be provided through company announcements [10] Technology and Innovation - As of June 30, 2025, the company holds 566 effective patents, including 500 research and development patents [11] - The company is focusing on differentiated product promotion, with the proportion of differentiated fiber production reaching 27% in the first half of 2025 [11] Qinzhou Project - The Qinzhou project, with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons of caprolactam and nylon, has successfully entered the trial production phase [12] - The project integrates advanced technologies and aims to optimize energy consumption and production costs [13] - It is expected to significantly enhance the company's competitive position in the nylon market and support high-quality development in the industry [13]