9月23日，记者就"中国是否会增加采购美国大豆"的问题，向中国相关部门询问。外交部发言人回应表示，具体问题应由相关主管部门解答，并强调关税战 和贸易战并不符合任何一方的利益，双方应在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上解决争端。 然而，大豆问题只是特朗普面临的一部分挑战。一个更为严重的问题是稀土。稀土元素对美国的高科技产业和军工产业至关重要。随着中国对稀土资源的控 制，美国的技术领域正面临风险。特朗普在关税问题上对中国做出让步，正是因为美国无法轻易摆脱对中国稀土的依赖。 最近，美洲大豆市场发生了一些微妙的变化。作为全球最大的大豆进口国，中国在购买美洲大豆时，逐渐将目光从巴西转向阿根廷，但却几乎不再从美国采 购。这一变化引起了美国大豆行业的关注。 9月19日，美国大豆协会主席拉格兰在接受美广播公司采访时透露，美国大豆正面临严峻形势。尽管此时正值美国大豆丰收季节，但中国的采购量却为零。 他呼吁特朗普政府采取行动，强调美国的大豆种植者迫切需要中国市场的支持。拉格兰的言论实际上是在请求特朗普关注这一问题，毕竟，美国的大豆种植 者群体是特朗普竞选的重要支持者之一，但现在他们的国际市场份额正在逐步受到威胁。 如今，全球不可替代的商品 ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing a significant growth phase, particularly in the electronic chemicals sector, which is crucial for chip manufacturing and performance [1][2][10] - The Chinese government has initiated policies to support the development of key products in the electronic chemicals field, marking the beginning of a "breakthrough battle" in the industry [1][10] Group 1: Market Growth and Demand - The demand for AI computing, data centers, and smart driving is driving the growth of the semiconductor market, with a projected market size of approximately $113.5 billion in China for the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year increase [2] - The global semiconductor materials market is expected to reach $70 billion in 2025, with a 6% year-on-year growth, while China's key electronic materials market is projected to grow by 21.1% to approximately 174.08 billion yuan [2][4] Group 2: Production Capacity Expansion - The expansion of wafer manufacturing capacity is accelerating, with a forecasted monthly capacity of 11.1 million 12-inch wafers by 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7% from 2024 to 2028 [4] - Advanced process nodes of 7nm and below are expected to see monthly production capacity increase from 850,000 wafers in 2024 to 1.4 million in 2028, with a CAGR of 14% [4] Group 3: Key Segments in Electronic Chemicals - The electronic chemicals market is divided into three main segments: photoresists, wet electronic chemicals, and electronic specialty gases, each with unique technological barriers and domestic substitution potential [5] - The photoresist market in China is projected to reach 6.802 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.49%, indicating significant potential for domestic substitution due to historical foreign monopolization [6] Group 4: Consumption Patterns and Business Models - Electronic chemicals are considered core consumables in semiconductor manufacturing, providing a more stable and sustainable business model compared to semiconductor equipment, which is subject to cyclical demand fluctuations [8][9] - Companies like Anji Technology and Shanghai Xinyang are expected to see revenue growth of 43.17% and 35.67% respectively in the first half of 2025, highlighting the resilience of the consumables business [8] Group 5: Policy and Technological Drivers - The rapid development of China's electronic chemicals sector is driven by a combination of policy support and technological advancements, aiming to transition from "catching up" to "leading" in the industry [10][11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined plans to enhance high-end supply and support key product breakthroughs in electronic chemicals, which is expected to accelerate the transition from laboratory research to large-scale production [10][11] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that have achieved breakthroughs in high-end fields, maintain continuous R&D investment, and have forward-looking capacity planning, as these firms are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth [12]

晶圆制造环节数百道工艺，每一层都离不开电子化学品的精准作用，电子化学品虽仅占芯片总成本10%-20%，但直接影响芯片性能与良率，是中国半导体突 破技术封锁的核心环节。 近期工业和信息化部等七部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，明确提出聚焦集成电路等重点产业链需求，支持电子化学品等领域 的关键产品攻关，行业"突围战"已悄然打响。 01 国产电子化学品迎"爆发式增长窗口" 02 三大赛道引领产业增长，高端领域是关键 电子化学品涵盖领域广，光刻胶、湿电子化学品、电子特气三大赛道，算是产业增长的"主力军"。每个赛道都有独特的技术门槛，也对应着不同的国产替代 空间。 2025年上半年，AI算力、数据中心、智能驾驶等终端需求不断增强，推动全球半导体行业在2024年复苏基础上继续增长。美国半导体协会（SIA）数据显 示，2025年1-7月中国大陆半导体市场规模约为1135亿美元，同比增长11.1%。 在需求的带动下，上游材料市场也迎来扩张期。TECHCET预测，2025年全球半导体材料市场规模将达700亿美元，同比增长6%，并将在2029年突破870亿美 元。中国市场表现尤为抢眼，中商产业研究院 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened lower but rose over 1.5% during the session, with key stocks like Alibaba and semiconductor companies such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC showing strength [1] - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$263.71 billion for June, a decrease of 17.7% from May but a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. The company's revenue for the first half of the year was NT$1,773.046 billion, up 40.0% year-on-year [1] - TSMC maintained its forecast for a double-digit revenue growth in USD for the year, estimating a growth rate of 24% to 26% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong technology sector has seen a valuation correction over the past quarter, with the latest valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) at 19.69 times P/E, which is below 92% of the time since the index was launched [2] - The sector is expected to have significant upside potential if favorable events act as catalysts, given its high growth and elasticity characteristics [2] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a structural transformation driven by geopolitical factors, leading to a decrease in the proportion of externally sourced chips from 63% in 2024 to 42% in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation discrepancies between SMIC's A-shares and H-shares, highlighting the contrasting perspectives of domestic and foreign investors regarding the company's potential and investment returns [1][39]. Group 1: Investment Characteristics - SMIC is viewed as a critical asset in China's semiconductor industry, with significant production capacity and a leading position in mature process technology [5][40]. - The company has experienced substantial revenue growth, with a projected revenue of $8 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16% over six years [9]. - However, capital expenditures have also surged, reaching $7.3 billion in 2024, indicating that over 90% of revenue is reinvested into capital [10][19]. Group 2: Financing and Cash Flow - SMIC's financing sources include equity financing, debt financing, and non-controlling shareholder investments, with each contributing approximately equally over the past six years [21]. - The company raised $7.5 billion through its IPO in 2020 and has accumulated $9.4 billion in net borrowings over seven years [23][24]. - Recent trends show a decline in state-owned capital injections, with only $280 million received in 2024, significantly lower than previous years [30]. Group 3: Valuation Discrepancies - The valuation gap between SMIC's A-shares and H-shares is attributed to differing investment philosophies, with domestic investors viewing it as a strategic asset while foreign investors see it as less unique compared to competitors like TSMC [39][41]. - Domestic investors are more likely to adopt a long-term perspective, while foreign investors focus on short-term returns and may not be willing to endure the associated risks [41][42]. - The article suggests that SMIC's valuation is likely to remain structurally different due to these contrasting views, making it challenging to reconcile the price differences in the market [43]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - SMIC is characterized as a heavy asset business with cyclical performance, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate between 1-2 times price-to-book (PB) ratio based on market conditions [50]. - The company is positioned as a "growth reserve," with potential for higher PB elasticity when trading below 1 PB, but risks of significant declines when trading above 2 PB without fundamental breakthroughs [54]. - Investors are encouraged to consider their investment horizon and the nature of returns they seek, especially given the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry [55].

Core Viewpoint - A recent study led by the University of Bristol highlights a breakthrough in semiconductor technology that could enable advanced applications such as autonomous vehicles, remote medical diagnostics, and immersive virtual experiences, all relying on faster data communication and transmission capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Semiconductor Breakthrough - The transition from 5G to 6G requires a complete upgrade of semiconductor technology, circuits, systems, and related algorithms [2]. - A new architecture has been tested that enhances GaN (Gallium Nitride) RF amplifiers, achieving unprecedented performance due to a latch effect discovered in GaN [2][3]. - The new devices utilize parallel channels with sub-100 nanometer fins to control current flow, demonstrating high performance in the W-band frequency range (75 GHz to 110 GHz) [2]. Group 2: Future Applications and Implications - The potential applications of the latch effect in GaN devices could significantly impact various sectors, including healthcare, education, and transportation, by enabling remote diagnostics, virtual classrooms, and enhanced road safety [1][3]. - The research team is focused on improving the power density of these devices to serve a broader user base and is collaborating with industry partners to commercialize the next-generation devices [3].