Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing sustained high interest, driven by geopolitical events and military parades, leading to significant stock price increases and historical highs for several companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The military sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Changcheng Military and Beifang Changlong hitting historical highs, and other firms like Kesi Technology and Aileda also seeing substantial gains [1] - Historical data indicates that military indices generally outperform the CSI 300 during military parade events, except for the poor performance in 2018 [1] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The military sector is currently in a "triple benefit" phase, characterized by policy support from accelerated state-owned enterprise restructuring, steady growth in military spending providing order support, and an upcoming new development cycle as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes [1] - The improvement in military stock performance is not merely driven by short-term sentiment but is increasingly supported by fundamental factors and policy initiatives [1] Group 3: Earnings Expectations - Core military companies are expected to see significant earnings improvements, with Aerospace Science and Technology's profits soaring by 1628% to 2.315 billion and Gaode Infrared's net profit increasing by 734% to 957 million in the first half of the year [2] - Anticipated catalysts, particularly order announcements, are expected to continue delivering positive results into 2025 [2] Group 4: Global Military Trade - The global military trade market is projected to grow, with a 19.37% year-on-year increase in the global military trade index in 2022, indicating a rapid development phase for military trade [2] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The defense budget is steadily increasing, with significant room for growth compared to some developed countries, and the military industry is expected to see substantial improvements as demand recovers and capacity structures optimize [3] - The long-term goals set for 2035 and 2050 provide clear guidance for industry development, with a focus on new domains such as large aircraft, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, drones, and robotic dogs [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, surpassing the 3600-point mark for the first time this year, with the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.21% and the ChiNext Index by 1.5% [2] - A total of 1.84 trillion yuan flowed into the market, with over 4100 stocks rising, indicating a strong profit-making effect [2] Sector Performance - The brokerage sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Jinlong Co., Ltd. rising by 10%, and other major brokerages also showing strength [4] - The market has seen a remarkable upward trend since early April, with the three major indices increasing approximately 14.6%, 18.7%, and 27.4% respectively over the past three months [4] - Various sectors, including lithium batteries, photovoltaics, steel, coal, traditional finance, and emerging technology, have all seen substantial increases, with some stocks rising by over 50% or even 100% [4] Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market rally is driven more by liquidity and fundamentals rather than policy, indicating a more stable upward trend [5] - Global liquidity is expected to further loosen in the second half of the year, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [5] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions in September could be a key factor influencing global liquidity and asset revaluation in China [5] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on fundamental factors rather than external disturbances, suggesting a shift from trading strategies to holding strategies [8] - Specific investment directions include sectors expected to report positive mid-year results, such as AI, new manufacturing, and industries benefiting from policy changes [8] - The technology sector, particularly AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of significant growth [9] Institutional Perspectives - Some institutions express caution regarding the current market enthusiasm, suggesting that while the financial sector benefits from positive sentiment, it may not be wise to chase high prices blindly [7] - The overall sentiment among foreign institutions remains optimistic about the A-share market, citing improved corporate earnings and supportive regulatory measures [6]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing adjustments, with the defense military ETF (512810) showing fluctuations, including a drop of over 1% before narrowing its losses [1] - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with over 1.68 billion yuan invested in the past 10 days, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite recent declines [1] - Among the 80 constituent stocks of the ETF, most have declined, with notable drops including Changcheng Military Industry down nearly 7% and Guorui Technology down over 3% [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the upcoming mid-year report season may bring uncertainty regarding the performance of previously high-profile stocks, leading to potential short-term differentiation [3] - Huafu Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the sector, while Zhonghang Securities believes the defense military industry is in a state with ample upward potential and limited downside risk [3] - Zhejiang Merchants Securities highlights three main investment themes for the defense military sector by 2025: military trade, new domains and qualities, and restructuring [3] Group 3 - The defense military ETF (512810) has undergone a share split, reducing the trading threshold from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [4]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for the construction of Beijing as an international science and technology innovation center, focusing on enhancing innovation capabilities and efficiency [1] - Beijing is establishing a coordinated development mechanism and an innovation linkage system to promote collaborative innovation, with a focus on key areas such as artificial intelligence and integrated circuits [1] - The city aims to build a high-precision industrial system with a focus on high-end, intelligent, and green development, while fostering 20 future industries and creating 30 innovation platforms across 17 fields [1] Group 2 - Beijing has developed a talent support action plan to build a high-level talent base, including a multi-dimensional talent cultivation system to attract and retain high-level professionals [2] - The city is enhancing the service guarantee level for technological innovation by improving the technology transfer service system and establishing a financial reform pilot zone for innovation [2] - A world-class cluster of major scientific and technological infrastructure is being constructed, with plans for eight new facilities and a focus on advanced infrastructure development [2] Group 3 - Beijing is actively integrating into the global technology innovation network by forming alliances and promoting industrial collaboration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [3] - The construction of the international science and technology innovation center will focus on original innovation, industry clusters with technological leadership, and high-level talent [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data in China exceeded expectations, leading to a collective rebound in A-shares despite external conflicts, with over 3,400 stocks rising [1][5]. Economic Data - China's industrial added value in May increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.7% and the previous value of 6.1% [6]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 4.9% and the previous 5.1% [6]. Impact of External Conflicts - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have significant implications, but their actual impact on Chinese assets is limited. Short-term market fluctuations may provide investment opportunities [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that while external conflicts may trigger risk-averse sentiments globally, the fundamental factors within China will primarily dictate market trends [9]. Investment Opportunities - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about A-shares, indicating a return of global capital to China, which could disproportionately benefit major index-weighted stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Ctrip, and Anta [9]. - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum on June 18-19 is expected to announce significant financial policies, which could enhance domestic economic resilience [9]. Sector Performance - Recent trends show that sectors such as wind power, gaming, media, and computing have performed well, while pharmaceuticals and precious metals have seen corrections [3]. - The period from June 15 to July 15 has historically shown a high performance rate for industries with positive earnings forecasts, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [10]. Market Rotation - Following the recent surge in innovative drugs and new consumption sectors, there is speculation that these themes may have reached a temporary peak. Funds are beginning to rotate towards technology sectors, including AI, media, and military technology [15][24]. - The technology sector has shown resilience during past geopolitical conflicts, suggesting it may continue to perform well despite external pressures [26].

据新华网报道，2 0 2 5年我国国防预算约1 7 8 4 7亿元，同比+7 . 2%，自2 0 2 3年以来增幅连续三年持 平。2 0 2 5年《政府工作报告》强调抓好"十四五"规划收官，随着行业修复，军工板块整体将得到 估值修复；提出因地制宜发展新质生产力，我们认为相关产业将在政策的持续支持下快速发展。随 着行业修复，军工板块整体将望获得估值修复，其中部分领域或个股有望率先开启底部复苏，进 而"从一个企业，扩散到一个型号再扩散到一个领域"。推荐导弹、特种机器人、新材料新工艺、两 机，以及低空经济、商业航天。 ▍ 国防预算连续三年同比+7 . 2%，占GDP比例较低仍有提升空间。 据新华网报道，2 0 2 5年我国国防预算约1 7 8 4 7亿元，同比+7 . 2%，自2 0 2 3年以来增幅连续三年持 平。我国2 0 2 2 - 2 0 2 4年国防预算分别同比+7 . 1%/ 7 . 2%/ 7 . 2%，军费同比增速连续3年保持7%以 上。据政府工作报告，2 0 2 5年GDP增速目标为5%左右，国防开支总体上与国家经济发展水平相 协调，7 . 2%的国防预算增速保持适度增长。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩3 ...