1. 花旗：将3个月白银价格预期上调至150美元/盎司（此前为100美元/盎司） 花旗发布研报称，过去两周白银价格飙升逾30%，突破此前每盎司85美元时设定的目标100美元，目前 交易价格已超过110美元。花旗表示长期对白银持看升观点，无论在绝对价格或相对于黄金的表现上， 均预期这一趋势将在未来数周持续。白银当前走势主要由资金配置驱动，其表现如同"黄金的平 方"或"强化版黄金"。花旗认为这种趋势可能延续，直至白银相对于黄金在历史标准下显得昂贵。花旗 预期未来数周白银价格还有30至40%的上行空间，目标看向每盎司150美元。若金银价格比再次回归历 史高点，白银价格可能达到每盎司160至170美元，甚至在极端情况下(如1979年)上看至每盎司300美 元。 2. 高盛：白银剧烈震荡将持续，黄金5400美元目标面临上行风险 国外 高盛认为，白银价格的双向剧烈波动可能持续存在，同时强调其关于年底黄金价格达到5400美元的预期 仍面临显著上行风险。该行将2026年全球铝市场供应过剩量预期从110万吨小幅下调至80万吨，并维持 2027年过剩160万吨的预期不变；同时，将2028年供应过剩预期从125万吨上调至230万吨 ...

沪指收涨0.27% 资源股掀涨停潮；海内外政策面偏宽松支撑铝价，沪铝主力合约日间盘收涨逾5%；黄 金、有色相关ETF集体走强；中国铝业获大额资金净流入；瑞银：多重因素继续支撑金价；兴业证券： 2月即将进入产业密集催化期；中信建投：坚守"科技+资源品"双主线。 【市场回顾】 【机构观点】 Choice数据显示，1月28日早盘，国际现货黄金站上5200美元/盎司，继续创历史新高。瑞银财富管理投 资总监办公室日前发表机构观点称，多重因素继续支撑金价。鉴于各国央行在过去一年加大了购金力 度，且宏观经济背景继续支持积累黄金储备，该机构认为金价有望进一步上涨。 兴业证券策略团队发布报告称，2月即将进入产业密集催化期，尤其AI应用领域具备诸多催化。今年春 节，各大科技巨头和独角兽将轮番上场抢夺"流量蛋糕"，包括腾讯和百度加入红包大战、DeepSeek-V4 或在春节前后发布、宇树机器人和豆包AI亮相春晚等。海外AI领域也催化颇多，包括大语言模型Grok 和搭载Gemini的Siri迎来版本升级、特斯拉或将发布的OptimusV3量产模型机。此外，2月固态电池、商 业航天等领域也将迎来产业层面的催化。 中信建投证券研报表示， ...

2025年公募基金四季报收官，一批穿越牛熊的"长跑型"绩优基金经理调仓路径曝光。 与公募基金整体调仓路径相比，七年、十年维度(截至2025年年末)业绩靠前的基金经理正上演一幕幕逆 向操作——在资金涌入中际旭创（300308）时逆势减仓，在持仓集中化趋势下主动分散，在AI算力热 度高峰前瞻布局应用端。这些操作，或许就藏着他们穿越周期的核心密码。 减持热门标的 2025年四季度，中际旭创取代宁德时代（300750）成为公募基金第一大重仓股，单季获增持超220亿 元，连续三个季度成为增持王。但令人意外的是，多位"长跑型"基金经理却选择逆势而为，对这只热门 股大举减仓。 莫海波管理的万家品质生活灵活配置混合、神爱前执掌的平安策略先锋混合减仓中际旭创比例均超 40%；曾鹏管理的博时特许价值混合、刘元海管理的东吴移动互联灵活配置混合，减仓幅度也超过 20%；金梓才管理的财通价值动量混合型基金更是在三季度减仓超50%后，四季度继续减仓17.86%。 同为光模块热门标的新易盛（300502），也遭遇类似分化。公募基金在2025年四季度整体增持超90亿 元，但杨栋管理的富国低碳新经济混合减仓超40%。 不过，与中际旭创略有不同 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a spring rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11% [12] - Short-term market focus is on low-position sectors, particularly cyclical Alpha (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) expanding towards cyclical turning points in construction materials, oil, and steel [1][13] - The current profitability in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil is nearing high levels, indicating increasing short-term resistance for cyclical trends [1][14] Group 2 - Global market risk appetite is on the rise, favoring equity assets, with recommendations for tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while suggesting underweight in US Treasuries and oil [2][15] - The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to more aggressive economic policies and an expansion of the fiscal deficit [2][15] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB are favorable for China's monetary easing in early 2026 [2][15] Group 3 - The technology sector remains the main focus of the current bull market, driven by the AI wave, with recommendations to pay attention to the application of AI in specific sectors [3][16] - Value sector opportunities are also worth considering, including certain resource products and real estate [3][16] - Consumer services may receive temporary attention as part of the sector allocation strategy [3][16] Group 4 - The market is expected to remain stable with a focus on holding positions through the upcoming holiday, as historical data suggests a less than 50% probability of major index increases in the 20 trading days before the Spring Festival [4][17] - Post-holiday, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index increases in the following 20 trading days [4][17] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on both growth and defensive styles depending on market conditions [4][17] Group 5 - The spring rally is expected to enter its second phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 4200 points, reflecting a strong upward trend since late December [5][18] - The market is witnessing a divergence in fund flows, with significant inflows into margin financing while stock-type ETFs are experiencing outflows [5][18] - Attention is needed on macro policy expectations from the upcoming National People's Congress in March and the microeconomic fundamentals from the 2025 annual reports [5][18] Group 6 - The current average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.88 and 53.36, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][20] - The market is expected to focus on performance and industry trends, with a likelihood of maintaining a slight upward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index [8][20] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, batteries, and aerospace [8][20] Group 7 - The market is anticipated to continue its oscillation and consolidation phase, with ETF outflows and a temporary decline in margin financing [9][20] - Despite the market's cooling, overall trading enthusiasm remains, and a slow bull market expectation may lead to fluctuating market sentiments [9][20] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the TMT sector, robotics, and non-ferrous metals, alongside a focus on banking and insurance due to favorable long-term funding conditions [9][20] Group 8 - The spring rally is expected to persist, with a significant increase in risk appetite in the A-share market, as evidenced by a 17-day consecutive rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [10][21] - The market liquidity environment is improving, supported by favorable external conditions and proactive internal policies [10][21] - Key investment themes include low-valuation high-dividend assets, technology-driven production, and domestic market expansion [10][21] Group 9 - The 2026 economic outlook is positive, with proactive monetary and fiscal policies expected to support stable economic growth and a continued "slow bull" market in A-shares [11][21] - February is anticipated to maintain the momentum of January's focus on technology and non-ferrous sectors, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11][21] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors related to new productive forces, including AI, aerospace, and agriculture [11][21]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to China Electronics Technology Group Corporation Digital Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "CETC Digital") due to inaccurate and incomplete information disclosure regarding its commercial aerospace and AI business, which misled investors [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - CETC Digital's former board secretary, Hou Zhiping, received a regulatory warning for failing to disclose product progress and scale accurately, and for not adequately warning about risks until regulatory intervention occurred [1][4]. - The regulatory warning led to a significant drop in CETC Digital's stock price on January 13, 2026, affecting investors who bought shares at higher prices [1][4]. Group 2: Investor Compensation - Investors who purchased CETC Digital shares between January 5, 2026, and January 12, 2026, and still hold them, may voluntarily register for compensation through the "Sina Investor Rights Protection Platform," regardless of whether they sold their shares after January 13, 2026 [2][5]. - Legal counsel from Shanghai Xinben Law Firm indicated that investors suffering losses due to false disclosures or misleading statements may file lawsuits for compensation under relevant securities laws [1][4].

Core Insights - The private equity investment industry is entering a period of cognitive return and capability reshaping, with long-term capital expansion and patient capital becoming core forces supporting technological innovation [2][15] - Investment institutions are focusing on hard technology and strategic emerging industries, deepening their layouts and exploring value [2][15] - The government guidance funds and state-owned investment platforms have become stabilizers and accelerators for industrial development, collaborating with various capital types to build a deeply integrated and shared industrial-financial ecosystem [2][15] Capital Landscape - In the past year, 103 new private fund managers were added, reflecting a 13% decline in growth rate, indicating strict regulatory control over license issuance [19] - New fund managers are primarily concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region, covering traditional active areas such as Guangdong, Beijing, and Sichuan [19][20] - The top 20 new fund managers exhibit three clear characteristics: representation from state-owned enterprises, local government investment platforms, and institutions aligned with national policies [20] Investment Trends - Investment quantity and amount increased significantly in the past year, with growth rates of 16% and 28% respectively compared to the previous year [21][22] - The investment landscape is dominated by four key sectors: integrated circuits, new energy vehicles, commercial aerospace, and robotics, with a notable trend of "group investment" among leading projects [22][23] - The top 20 investment institutions are primarily well-known entities in the industry, indicating a concentration of investment activity among established players [21] Ecosystem Reconstruction - The IPO market has seen a notable increase, with the top 10 investment institutions being well-known players, highlighting the strong market-oriented attributes of these institutions [23] - The top IPO projects are concentrated in sectors such as semiconductors and intelligent driving, with repeated participation from the same investment institutions, indicating a core circle ecosystem in the private equity investment landscape [23][24] - M&A activity showed limited growth in the number of events (9.7% increase) but a significant increase in transaction value (83.4% increase), primarily driven by state-owned enterprises [24] Exit Strategies - Given the current IPO market's limitations, many institutions are exploring exits through M&A funds, accumulating successful experiences in this area [24] - The current private equity investment landscape has evolved beyond mere investment, becoming crucial for industrial development and national future [24]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, driven by multiple factors including the technology cycle, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a "seventeen consecutive days" rise, with significant increases in trading volume and active capital inflow [1][3]. - The performance of various sectors shows that cyclical stocks, technology stocks, and military industry stocks have led the gains, while financial and consumer stocks have underperformed [1][3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The dual momentum from technology and cyclical sectors has significantly enhanced risk appetite among investors, with the digital economy, particularly AI and semiconductors, leading the charge [3][4]. - The release of concentrated economic policies since the beginning of 2026, including a 625 billion yuan special bond for consumer upgrades, has contributed to the market's positive outlook [4][5]. - Economic recovery is gaining momentum, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs returning above the growth line, indicating a shift towards quality and efficiency in corporate operations [5][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD has attracted overseas capital back to China, as global investors seek stable assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [6][7]. - Data indicates an increase in holdings of Chinese assets by global and Asian funds compared to the end of 2024, supported by targeted policies and growth in AI-related profits [7]. Group 4: Futures Market Dynamics - The narrowing of the basis in stock index futures indicates strong bullish sentiment among investors, with significant shifts in the annualized basis rates for various contracts [8][9]. - Recent fluctuations in futures contracts suggest a potential adjustment phase, with the cost of rolling over contracts decreasing, reflecting a more favorable position for investors [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is transitioning from valuation-driven growth to profit-driven performance, with individual stock performance increasingly tied to fundamental improvements and rising economic conditions [11][12]. - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by ongoing policy effects, enhanced economic recovery, and the sustained influx of overseas capital [12].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant increase, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and trading volume exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][10][12] - The recent surge in trading volume is attributed to several core factors: diversified funding sources, including margin financing of approximately 2.6 trillion yuan, the migration of deposits to the stock market due to low interest rates, and increased long-term institutional investment [1][10][12] Sector Performance - The AI application sector saw substantial gains, with stocks like Kimi and Sora continuing their upward trend. The report emphasizes that AI is leading a new technological revolution, creating numerous investment opportunities in the AI+ space [6][7] - The cultural media sector also performed well, with significant increases in advertising, gaming, and film industries. The report highlights the positive impact of AI on content production and the potential for growth in the gaming and interactive entertainment sectors [7][9] - Aerospace and military stocks experienced notable increases, driven by geopolitical factors and increased military spending proposals, particularly from the U.S. government [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the current market has established a positive feedback loop of "increased trading volume leading to index gains," which supports the continuation of the bullish trend. Investors are advised to hold onto existing positions while waiting for potential buying opportunities during market pullbacks [2][11] - It is recommended that investors focus on stocks with strong earnings support across various sectors, including technology growth (semiconductors, AI themes), cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals), and dividend stocks (banks, utilities) [2][11]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a significant increase in trading volume, with expectations that daily turnover may exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous record of 3.48 trillion yuan set on October 8, 2024 [1][2] - The market is currently in an upward trend, but some sectors are entering an "overbought" zone, indicating potential overheating and volatility as hot sectors rotate [1][2] - Institutional investors, including social security funds and insurance capital, are showing confidence in the Chinese economy and capital market, contributing to stable incremental funds in the stock market [2] Group 2 - The current market rally is characterized by structural and thematic trading, with sectors like satellite communication, aerospace, and robotics attracting significant capital since December of the previous year [2][3] - The trading concentration in the commercial aerospace index is increasing, suggesting a need for stronger fundamental catalysts to sustain the momentum [3] - The market is witnessing a rapid rotation of funds between different sectors, leading to both opportunities and risks, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics [2]

Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The A-share market has shown significant gains this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component up 4.40%, the ChiNext Index up 3.89%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index up 10.19% [1] - Institutions expect the market's momentum to continue in the short term, but caution is advised regarding a potential cooling period after mid-January leading up to the Spring Festival [1] - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct driver of the A-share rally since late December 2025, with a notable increase in margin trading balances and overall trading volume [3] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with different sectors favored depending on market style (growth vs. defensive) [1] - The commercial aerospace sector has seen substantial gains and remains a focus for investors, despite potential profit-taking pressures [2] - The robotics sector has attracted significant capital inflow, indicating strong investor interest, while the commercial aerospace sector is transitioning to a "theme expansion" phase [4] - Recommendations include focusing on resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing pricing power [6]