【导读】基金首席解读党的二十届四中全会精神："十五五"蓝图绘就，"科技+绿色+制造+民生"有望成为我国经济新动能 中国基金报记者 李树超 曹雯璟 据新华社报道，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行。全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和 社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 全会释放出哪些积极信号？对中国宏观经济未来发展有何指导作用？哪些行业有望成为实体经济发展新动能？科技创新将如何改变中国？资本市场哪些行 业有望受益？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛，中航基金副总经理兼首席投资官邓海清，创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春，金鹰基金 首席经济学家、基金经理杨刚，博时基金首席权益策略分析师陈显顺，财通基金首席策略分析师王磊。 他们认为，全会释放出坚持高质量发展、深化改革创新的积极信号。"十五五"时期，中国经济有望在保持合理增速的同时，实现质量和效益全面提升，科 技发展将成为经济增长的核心驱动力。 创金合信基金魏凤春：全会释放出坚持高质量发展、深化改革创新的积极信号。 招商基金李湛：战略机遇期仍在，只是更具"结构性"——政策与资本都将从"总 ...

擘画新蓝图，开启新征程。刚刚闭幕的党的二十届四中全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经 济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。《建议》突出科技创新的引领作用，将"加快高水平科技自 立自强，引领发展新质生产力"作为战略任务进行专章部署，并强调科技创新在建设现代化产业体系、 加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型等方面的支撑作用，为"十五五"时期科技创新工作指明了正确方向。 新质生产力是经济高质量发展的关键词，高水平科技自立自强是高质量发展的战略支撑。习近平总 书记强调，"要以科技创新引领产业创新，积极培育和发展新质生产力""科技创新能够催生新产业、新 模式、新动能，是发展新质生产力的核心要素"。习近平总书记的重要论述，为加快科技创新、发展新 质生产力，推动高质量发展提供了根本遵循。 回溯"十四五"，人工智能大模型、创新药等创新成果不断涌现，新能源汽车产销量、光伏风电装机 量等多项指标领跑世界，以商业航天、国产大飞机等为代表的新兴产业发展欣欣向荣，未来产业呈现关 键技术多点突破态势……科技创新不断重塑生产力形态，催生、引领和壮大新质生产力，绘制中国经济 的崭新图景。 《建议》从加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关、推动科技创新和 ...

前三季度北京经济成绩单正式发布：地区生产总值同比增长5.6%，增速比上半年提高0.1个百分点。跃 动的数字，显示出北京经济运行平稳、稳中提质的向好态势。 "所当乘者势也，不可失者时也。"当前，外部不稳定、不确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足、发展不平 衡不充分问题依然存在。特别是消费市场正处于结构性调整关键阶段，商业经营模式、居民消费需求变 化及生产生活方式转型升级，均对消费市场产生较大影响。我们尤须保持定力，总结经验做法，通过改 革发力、政策给力，着力缩小"温差"，努力让更多人享受发展红利。 前景有支撑，潜力在释放。进一步坚定信心，踏踏实实干好自己的事，我们一定能完成全年经济社会发 展目标任务。 来源：北京日报客户端 具体来看，重点行业支撑有力——信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，金融业，工业，这三大优势行业 持续发挥带动作用，对全市经济增长的贡献率超过8成。高端制造引领增长——规模以上工业战略性新 兴产业、高技术制造业增加值分别增长17.9%和9.9%（二者有交叉）。新型消费表现亮眼——随着文旅 市场持续火热，电影、演出市场票房收入均实现两位数增长，旅行社及相关服务行业收入增长超1成， 航空、铁路客运量持续提升 ...

2025 年 10 月 22 日 策略类●证券研究报告 科技创新与扩大内需可能是重点方向 主题报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 外部风险事件导致震荡加剧，但短期警惕之 余或应适度关注中长期配置机会-华金证券 新股周报 2025.10.19 短期震荡，慢牛不变，均衡配置 2025.10.18 短 期 贸 易 摩 擦 难 改 A 股 慢 牛 趋 势 2025.10.12 十月慢牛趋势不变，风格难改 2025.10.11 节后资金表现或有望略趋活跃，但震荡分化 与局部活跃并行或暂时未改-华金证券新股 周报 2025.10.7 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1/18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 "十五五"期间，驱动中国经济增长的变量可能主要在于全要素生产率的提升、资 本和劳动力供给的质量提升。（1）通过技术创新与应用提升全要素生产率：首先， "十五五"期间，人工智能等技术创新和带来的相关应用可能带来生产效率的提升； 其次，" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a genuine bull market in China is yet to begin, with signs of a recovery in the profit fundamentals [2] - The current market environment suggests that opportunities may arise from the easing of liquidity constraints, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, which may see a rebound after a period of stagnation [2] - The focus for growth investments is shifting from technology-driven sectors to those benefiting from overseas expansion, with cyclical manufacturing sectors (such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals) expected to become the mid-term mainline [2] Group 2 - The overall industry selection framework remains centered around resources, new productive forces, and overseas expansion, with resource stocks transitioning from cyclical to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions [3] - The Chinese manufacturing sector's globalization is seen as a key driver for market capitalization growth, as it translates competitive advantages into pricing power and improved profit margins [3] Group 3 - Tactical analysis indicates that recent communications between the US and China suggest a stabilization of short-term risks, with a weak dollar and overseas interest rate cuts favoring China's monetary easing [5] - The market adjustment is viewed as an opportunity, with expectations that A/H share indices may reach new highs, supported by positive developments in the Chinese economy [5] Group 4 - The bull market is characterized by high turnover rates followed by periods of consolidation, with potential shifts in market style and sector leadership [7] - Financial sector allocations are expected to shift from banks to non-bank financials, as the latter may exhibit greater earnings elasticity in a rising bull market [7] Group 5 - The market is experiencing increased short-term speculation, with a continuation of a hot-spot rotation pattern, although the overall positive trend remains intact [10] - The focus on policy expectations is anticipated to lead to new investment opportunities, particularly as the upcoming political meetings may enhance market risk appetite [11] Group 6 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, domestic consumption, and technological self-sufficiency, with a particular emphasis on AI, robotics, and semiconductor industries [12]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]

Group 1 - The overall market performance shows mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.3%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index increased by 1.14% and 2.34% respectively [1] - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of the globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing companies, suggesting that this will enhance pricing power and profit margins, leading to market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1] - The financing trends around the National Day holiday indicate a pattern of "pre-holiday contraction and post-holiday explosion," with historical data suggesting a high probability of A/H shares rising after preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 2 - Huajin Securities notes that historically, after high-level fluctuations in a bull market, A-shares tend to continue rising, with current policies and external events remaining positive [2] - Dongwu Securities identifies potential market directions for the fourth quarter, suggesting a structural shift may occur, with cyclical sectors and low-position technology branches being key areas to watch [3] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy and industry support, such as AI, lithium batteries, and consumer services, especially with the upcoming holidays boosting travel-related stocks [4] Group 3 - Western Securities reports a contraction in A-share valuations, with the coal industry leading gains due to rising coal prices driven by winter supply concerns [5] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with support levels identified at previous lows, and recommendations to maintain current positions until adjustments are complete [7] - Kaisheng Securities highlights the ongoing dominance of technology sectors, driven by relative profitability and global semiconductor cycles, with AI emerging as a significant demand driver [8] Group 4 - Debon Securities indicates that the current market is at the beginning of a new dollar interest rate cut cycle, with a slow bull market expected to continue, particularly in sectors like AI and solid-state batteries [9] - Xiangcai Securities suggests that the A-share market is likely to operate in a "slow bull" manner, influenced by ongoing policies and the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on technology, green initiatives, and consumer services [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of industrial structure adjustment in China's 14th and upcoming 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing a shift from focusing on the proportion of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and high-quality development [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Industrial Structure Adjustment - Industrial structure adjustment is a crucial component of China's Five-Year Plans, serving as a key means to achieve core objectives [3][16]. - The 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans have set clear quantitative targets for industrial structure adjustments, focusing on advanced manufacturing and innovation [3][5]. 2. Evolution of Industrial Structure Adjustment - The focus has shifted from the proportion of the three industries to technological innovation and R&D investment from the 11th to the 14th Five-Year Plans [5][28]. - The importance of service industry value-added ratios has diminished, while R&D expenditure has become a central indicator [5][28]. 3. Directions for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The primary direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan is transformation and upgrading, with a focus on "anti-involution" and service industry development [7][8]. - The emphasis on technological innovation is expected to continue, with new emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and marine economy being highlighted [7][22]. 4. Service Industry Focus - The service industry's focus has shifted from finance and real estate to information technology, reflecting a decrease in reliance on traditional sectors [6][47]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to enhance the service industry's openness and stimulate service consumption and trade [8][49]. 5. Manufacturing Sector Changes - The requirements for the manufacturing sector have evolved from quantity to quality, with a growing emphasis on high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing [35][40]. - The contribution of high-tech industries to economic growth has become increasingly significant, outpacing traditional labor-intensive sectors [32][44].

Group 1: Industry Structure Adjustment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industry structure adjustment as a key component of national economic planning, with specific targets set in previous plans like the "13th" and "14th" Five-Year Plans[1] - The focus of industry structure adjustment has shifted from the ratio of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and R&D investment[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduced new targets for digital economy core industries, reflecting a transition from broad to detailed planning[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Targets - From 2010 to 2024, the share of the secondary industry in GDP has stabilized, with figures of 45.7%, 40.0%, 36.9%, and 36.5% respectively, while the tertiary industry's share increased from 45.1% to 56.7%[21] - The average growth rate of R&D investment in enterprises reached 9.8% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a strong emphasis on innovation[17] - The service sector's contribution to GDP has shifted from finance and real estate to information technology, with significant increases in the GDP share of information transmission and technology services during the "13th" Five-Year Plan[4] Group 3: Future Directions and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to continue supporting technological innovation, with emerging industries like artificial intelligence and marine economy highlighted in recent government meetings[5] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy aims to address supply-demand mismatches in manufacturing, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 34 consecutive months as of July 2025[6] - The service sector is anticipated to receive increased policy support to enhance employment stability and stimulate consumption, particularly in areas like education and healthcare[6]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing sustained high interest, driven by geopolitical events and military parades, leading to significant stock price increases and historical highs for several companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The military sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Changcheng Military and Beifang Changlong hitting historical highs, and other firms like Kesi Technology and Aileda also seeing substantial gains [1] - Historical data indicates that military indices generally outperform the CSI 300 during military parade events, except for the poor performance in 2018 [1] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The military sector is currently in a "triple benefit" phase, characterized by policy support from accelerated state-owned enterprise restructuring, steady growth in military spending providing order support, and an upcoming new development cycle as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes [1] - The improvement in military stock performance is not merely driven by short-term sentiment but is increasingly supported by fundamental factors and policy initiatives [1] Group 3: Earnings Expectations - Core military companies are expected to see significant earnings improvements, with Aerospace Science and Technology's profits soaring by 1628% to 2.315 billion and Gaode Infrared's net profit increasing by 734% to 957 million in the first half of the year [2] - Anticipated catalysts, particularly order announcements, are expected to continue delivering positive results into 2025 [2] Group 4: Global Military Trade - The global military trade market is projected to grow, with a 19.37% year-on-year increase in the global military trade index in 2022, indicating a rapid development phase for military trade [2] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The defense budget is steadily increasing, with significant room for growth compared to some developed countries, and the military industry is expected to see substantial improvements as demand recovers and capacity structures optimize [3] - The long-term goals set for 2035 and 2050 provide clear guidance for industry development, with a focus on new domains such as large aircraft, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, drones, and robotic dogs [3]