Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of sanctions on Russian oil exports, particularly focusing on the widening price discount of Urals crude oil compared to Brent crude, and the resulting financial strain on the Russian economy due to reduced demand and export volumes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Urals crude oil prices fell to $36.61 per barrel, with a discount of $23.51 per barrel compared to Brent, marking the largest price gap since March 2023 [1] - The price difference has nearly doubled from the pre-sanction level of $12-13 per barrel, approaching the record of $40 set earlier in 2023 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - A significant drop in demand has led to approximately 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian oil being stranded at sea, representing one-third of Russia's maritime exports [2] - This situation indicates a new phase of sanctions impacting Russian oil exports, which may further pressure the country's budget revenues [2] Group 3: Impact on Russian Fiscal Health - Major Indian refiners like Reliance Industries and Bharat Petroleum have halted purchases of Russian oil, which previously averaged around 1 million barrels per day [3] - Chinese companies, including Sinopec and PetroChina, have also ceased direct purchases, affecting about 45% of Russia's oil exports to China [3] - Russian fiscal revenues for 2025 have already decreased by over 20%, with Rosneft and Lukoil accounting for 2.2 million barrels per day, or 50% of total exports [4] - The Russian Ministry of Finance anticipates a 30% reduction in export revenues due to sanctions, potentially leading to an annual budget deficit of 5 trillion rubles, equivalent to 2.3% of GDP [4]

智通财经APP获悉，目前，全球海域正积压着高达十亿桶的原油，其中来自受制裁国家的原油比例异常 之高。这一迹象表明，制裁措施正在对石油贸易造成相当程度的干扰。 Clarksons Securities包括Frode Morkedal在内的分析师写道："部分库存增长源于西方制裁的收紧，导致 俄罗斯原油滞留船上无法卸载。此前的买家已转而从中东和大西洋地区采购替代原油。" 根据对船舶追踪机构数据的分析显示，受限制原油的积压主要来自俄罗斯供应。 最近几周，俄罗斯海上石油运输量有所上升。随着该国与欧佩克+产油国盟友逐步取消此前的减产措 施，石油产量持续增加。此外，乌克兰对俄罗斯石油基础设施(尤其是炼油厂)的袭击，可能导致部分原 油被转移至出口终端。 据Vortexa、Kpler和OilX三家机构的船舶追踪数据显示，8月底以来，海上油轮的原油库存大幅增加，其 中俄罗斯、伊朗、委内瑞拉产出或来源不明的原油占增量的比例最高约达40%。即便按最低估算的20% 计算，这一占比也超过了上述三国在全球原油产量中的份额。 这种积压并不意味着这些原油永远无法售出，但会对受制裁产油国的收入构成威胁，并进一步影响本就 预计将走向供应过剩的全球 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report's Core View - Sanctions have led to uncertainties in the oil market, with Luke Oil's international assets at risk of sanctions. The company needs to sell its international assets quickly, but it is difficult to do so in a short time [2]. - Oil prices are expected to be short - term oscillating and bearish, with a medium - term short position recommendation, and a strategy of shorting the monthly spread (buying far - dated contracts and selling near - dated contracts, targeting WTI or Brent) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's December - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures rose 38 cents to $60.13 per barrel, a 0.64% increase; January - delivery London Brent crude oil futures rose 43 cents to $64.06 per barrel, a 0.68% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 0.04% at 460 yuan per barrel [1]. - Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) bought 2 million barrels of WTI crude oil and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil, expected to arrive in January. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude oil for delivery from January 1st to 7th. Both companies have suspended purchasing Russian oil [1]. - The share price of Hungarian refiner Mol rose after Prime Minister Orbán obtained a waiver from US sanctions on Russian oil. Mol's refineries in Hungary and Slovakia continue to rely on Russian crude oil, and the price difference of cheap Russian oil helps expand its refining profit margins and boost Q3 earnings [1]. - During the heating season from this winter to next spring, CNPC has arranged a 3.7% year - on - year increase in natural gas supply resources, accounting for over 60% of the domestic supply. In the first three quarters of this year, CNPC produced 123 billion cubic meters of natural gas (a 4.7% year - on - year increase), imported 80.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas (a 5.7% year - on - year increase), and injected 18.6 billion cubic meters of gas into storage facilities (an 8.8% year - on - year increase) [1]. - Luke Oil has terminated the employment of non - Russian foreign employees at the West Qurna - 2 oil field. Iraq has frozen cash and crude oil payments to Luke Oil and is seeking legal ways to ensure the continued operation of the field [1]. Investment Logic - Although the US has exempted Hungary from Russian energy imports for one year, uncertainties due to sanctions remain. The West Qurna - 2 oil field in Iraq, in which Luke Oil participates, has seen Iraq stop paying cash to the company and cancel three cargoes of equity crude oil originally allocated to it in November. Luke Oil needs to sell its international assets quickly, but it is difficult to do so in a short time, and these assets may still be affected by sanctions [2]. Strategy - Short - term, oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias; medium - term, a short position is recommended, and short the monthly spread (buy far - dated contracts and sell near - dated contracts, targeting WTI or Brent) [3].

油价小幅走高，美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京今日将举行会晤。近月西得州中质油 期货最新上涨 0.1%，至每桶64.02美元；近月布伦特原油期货小幅上涨0.2%，至每桶66.95美元。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳- 莱维特周四表示，两位领导人将在阿拉斯加会晤后举行一场联合新闻发布会。Ramy Zeytouni llc的市场 分析师Ramy Zeytouni报告表示，市场参与者在这次关于乌克兰问题的会议召开前态度谨慎，担心会议 或将放松对俄罗斯原油的制裁，或将导致对俄罗斯 石油的买家采取更严厉的措施。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. The EU imposed the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, reducing the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear talks with major European powers next week, and whether to resume nuclear talks with the US depends on the US attitude. The supply of Kurdish oil fields was affected by attacks, with about 200,000 barrels per day of production at risk of interruption. Globally, refinery profits strengthened week - on - week, and the product side remained firm. In China, refinery operations were volatile, and after the increase in June, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, with refinery profits weakening week - on - week, leaving limited room to boost operations further. In the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply supported the crude oil monthly structure, but the peak - season factors were relatively fully realized, and the recent monthly spreads were in a volatile pattern. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.14, Brent by $0.07, and Dubai by $0.15. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread decreased by $0.05, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.07. Other price differentials also showed various changes [2]. - For domestic and other related products, SC decreased by 19.70, the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 3.00, and the Japanese naphtha - BRT spread decreased by 2.98, etc. [2] 2. Daily News - Traders are evaluating the real impact of the EU's latest sanctions on Russian oil supply, and international oil prices have limited fluctuations. The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including India's Nayara Energy. The Kremlin said it is immune to Western sanctions. Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russian oil buyers if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days. The market doubts the effectiveness of the sanctions [2]. - Trump is seeking to impose a 15 - 20% minimum tariff on all EU goods [3]. - The EU sanctioned an Iranian oil tycoon for assisting Russian oil trade. Iran's foreign minister said Iran is willing to talk with the US but not directly for now [3]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day. The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91%. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3][15]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. The output of gasoline decreased while that of diesel increased, the gasoline inventory increased while the diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries declined week - on - week [4].