| 2025/12/19 | 335.69 | 342.69 | 404.73 | 78.63 | -6.57 | -177.13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/22 | 340.79 | 347.66 | 411.59 | 79.11 | -6.90 | -173.82 | | 2025/12/23 | 347.07 | 352.82 | 417.13 | 79.71 | -6.88 | -172.72 | | 2025/12/24 | 344.78 | 352.53 | 418.09 | 80.63 | -7.53 | -178.57 | | 变化 | -2.29 | -0.29 | 0.96 | 0.92 | -0.65 | -5.85 | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The mid - term weakness of crude oil may not support large - scale winter storage of asphalt. Refinery profits offer limited room for price cuts, suppressing the enthusiasm for winter storage, which may face a "lack of volume" problem. The winter storage policy in Shandong is expected to be announced next week, with prices likely around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton [2]. - This week, the overall asphalt supply slightly decreased due to adjustments in North China refineries. The demand improved as prices dropped, mainly consuming social inventories. The peak season in the south did not exceed expectations. Factory inventories slightly increased, while social inventories decreased. Crude oil prices were weakly volatile, and the spot basis continued to weaken. In the long - term, northern demand will end with falling temperatures, while southern demand may increase after rainfall decreases [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter storage and whether refineries will adjust prices to stimulate purchases. The long - term market will be affected by macro factors, policies, winter storage, and geopolitical situations [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The mid - term weakness of crude oil and limited refinery profit margins may lead to insufficient winter storage volume. The winter storage price in Shandong is expected to be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. After the policy is announced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Options sellers can be used for two - way strategies, or opportunities for long - position in BU03 basis can be considered [2]. - Other factors remain unchanged. Supply decreased slightly this week, demand improved as prices dropped, and the market is in a weakly volatile state. Attention should be paid to winter storage and price adjustments by refineries [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The market is expected to be weakly volatile. Technical analysis suggests paying attention to the pressure level of 3050 and support level of 2950 for BU2601. The basis is expected to be bearish, the monthly spread may weaken seasonally, and there is no obvious driver for the crack spread between asphalt and crude oil, so it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when product inventories are high, short - selling asphalt futures or selling call options can be used to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buying asphalt futures or selling put options can be used to lock in purchase costs and reduce expenses [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Domestic Asphalt Market Review**: Prices in South China, Shandong, Northwest, Northeast, and North China decreased by 25 - 350 yuan/ton this week. Northern demand decreased, and some refineries in the Northwest offered low - price winter storage. In South China, supply increased, and prices decreased. The East China market had sufficient supply [18]. - **Spot Market Outlook**: Asphalt consumption is entering the off - season, demand is under pressure, Shandong refineries have复产 plans, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil may decline [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Geopolitical situation changes, including the shipping and arrival of Venezuelan crude oil, Russian crude oil exports, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and changes in floating storage inventories at sea. Also, pay attention to the asphalt winter storage policy [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement**: This week, the asphalt price fluctuated, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key profitable seats decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The asphalt basis structure weakened significantly this week, with the spot price close to the futures price. This is because spot trading was dull, and low - price contract resources supported market activity [26]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The monthly spread structure of asphalt continued to weaken, which is in line with the characteristics of the off - season [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - In the coking material market, the price of Shandong coking material increased by 75 to 3500 yuan/ton as of December 4. The profit of coking units improved, but high - price resource transactions were limited. The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 25 to 2960 - 3450 yuan/ton. The demand decreased, supply increased, and the price may continue to fall. The price difference between asphalt and coking material widened, but most asphalt plants have no plans to switch to producing coking materials in the short term [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 400 - 410 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3300 - 3380 yuan/ton. Some high - speed projects in East China are driving the consumption of imported asphalt, while demand in the North has decreased significantly [51]. - **New - Malaysia - Thailand Market**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 500 - 520 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4030 - 4190 yuan/ton. The CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 515 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4150 - 4230 yuan/ton. The overall demand is stable, but the consumption of imported asphalt is limited due to competition from domestic resources [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - From January to October 2025, China's asphalt production was 2361 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 267 million tons or 13%. From January to November, the expected production is about 2585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260 million tons or 11% [54]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - Most modified asphalt plants in the North have stopped production, while demand in the South has increased due to construction rush, leading to an increase in the local modified asphalt operating rate [74]. 5.3 Inventory Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast and Northwest will gradually receive refinery resources, and inventory levels will slowly rise. In the South, stable project construction has led to a continuous decline in social inventory levels [88]. 5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes from January to October 2025 [111]. 5.5 Weather Outlook - In the next 10 days (December 6 - 15), many regions in China will have precipitation, with some areas having higher precipitation than the same period of the year, while some areas will have less precipitation [112].

Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is experiencing stable demand with global supply dominance, focusing on sub-industries such as sucralose, pesticides, MDI, and amino acids [1] - Domestic demand-driven segments like refrigerants, fertilizers, and dyes are expected to mitigate tariff impacts, with active performance in phosphate, potassium, compound fertilizers, and dye industries [1] - The cyclical bottom is becoming clearer, with marginal improvements in supply and demand for sub-industries like silicone and spandex due to prioritized capacity recovery [1] - From January to August, the total profit of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, although prices for products like hydrogen peroxide and hydrofluoric acid have risen sharply due to concentrated maintenance and support from new energy demand [1] - The industry is in a rebalancing phase following capital expenditure release, necessitating attention to oil price fluctuations and new capacity risks [1] Industry Overview - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks the sub-sector chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies involved in organic and inorganic chemicals, fertilizers, and pesticides to reflect the overall performance of the chemical industry [1] - The sub-sector chemical index focuses on the chemical industry, selecting representative enterprises as constituent stocks, emphasizing growth potential and market position to comprehensively showcase the overall development trend of the chemical industry [1]

Market Overview - The futures market is experiencing widespread declines, with major contracts such as 20 rubber, glass, coking coal, and rubber all dropping over 2% [3] - The palm oil market has also seen a decline of 2%, while other commodities like silver, live pigs, and synthetic rubber have dropped nearly 2% [3] - The overall sentiment in the market remains unstable, with the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve not providing the expected support [6] Financial Futures Sector - The stock index futures have shown volatility, with the CSI 300 index futures (IF) down 1.35% and the SSE 50 index futures (IH) down 1.40% [6] - The market is currently assessing the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve, with a divergence in expectations among officials regarding future rate cuts [6] Precious Metals Market - The gold market is undergoing high-level adjustments, with limited upside potential due to fewer expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [7] - Geopolitical tensions and central banks' continued accumulation of gold support long-term demand, but rising nominal interest rates are exerting pressure on gold prices [7] Industrial Products Sector - The industrial products sector is under pressure, with copper prices declining due to less-than-expected support from the Federal Reserve's rate cut [8] - Aluminum prices have also retreated after a previous breakout, while nickel prices are finding support at lower ranges [8] Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector is generally weak, with methanol inventories remaining high and market sentiment declining [15] - PVC supply and demand remain weak, leading to a short-term stabilization followed by a downturn [16] Shipping and Container Market - The shipping market, particularly the European route, is experiencing significant declines, with the Shanghai export container settlement price index dropping 8.1% [19] - The current supply pressure is evident, with global container capacity exceeding 32.9 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 8% [19] Key Focus Points for Next Week - Upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data will be critical in influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [21] - Attention should also be given to geopolitical risks and the outcomes of other central banks' meetings [21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the LPG market, indicating that crude oil fluctuations are intensifying, and LPG is expected to experience short - term wide - range oscillations. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For PG2506, the yesterday's closing price was 4,381 with a daily decline of 1.51%, and the night - session closing price was 4,399 with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The trading volume was 66,542, an increase of 5,616 from the previous day, and the open interest was 58,883, a decrease of 5,322. For PG2507, the yesterday's closing price was 4,288 with a daily decline of 1.58%, and the night - session closing price was 4,304 with a night - session increase of 0.37%. The trading volume was 16,850, a decrease of 1,236 from the previous day, and the open interest was 40,833, an increase of 1,640 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 789 yesterday, up from 752 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 839 yesterday, up from 792 the day before [1]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 60.1%, down from 63.2% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 65.0%, down from 67.2% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 45.2%, down from 47.8% last week [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being an integer within the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [7]. 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On May 7, 2025, the expected price of propane for the June Saudi CP was 577 dollars per ton, an increase of 5 dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 557 dollars per ton, also an increase of 5 dollars per ton. The expected price of propane for the July Saudi CP was 546 dollars per ton, and the expected price of butane was 526 dollars per ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with start times ranging from May 12, 2023, to May 2, 2025, and most of the end times are undetermined [8]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many refineries, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Panjin Haoya, etc., have device maintenance plans, with normal production volumes ranging from 75,000 tons to 1,500,000 tons, and the loss volumes are the same as the normal production volumes in most cases. The start times range from April 5, 2024, to April 18, 2025, and many end times are undetermined [10].