Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue a strong oscillation in prices, supported by macroeconomic conditions and cost factors [3] - The report indicates that the steel sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.62% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300 index [10] - The report highlights a potential for profit recovery in the steel sector, driven by improved supply dynamics and favorable pricing conditions [3] Supply Summary - As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies was 85.5%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week [23] - Electric furnace capacity utilization increased to 58.0%, up by 1.08 percentage points week-on-week [23] - The total output of five major steel products reached 7.153 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons week-on-week [23] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.261 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 29.3 thousand tons [33] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 92 thousand tons, down by 0.36 thousand tons week-on-week [33] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.663 million tons, an increase of 1.16 thousand tons week-on-week [41] - Factory inventory decreased to 3.807 million tons, down by 8.07 thousand tons week-on-week [41] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,457.5 CNY/ton, up by 5.28 CNY/ton week-on-week [46] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 72 CNY/ton, an increase of 9.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [54] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces was -39 CNY/ton, a decrease of 14.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [54] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 819 CNY/ton, down by 4.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [72] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750 CNY/ton, up by 100.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [72] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,715 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [72] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality steel companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - Companies involved in restructuring and with strong growth potential, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, are also recommended [3] - Special steel enterprises benefiting from a new energy cycle, such as CITIC Special Steel and Jiuli Special Materials, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, winter storage policies were gradually introduced. A refinery in Shandong released a winter storage contract at 2,900 yuan/ton for the end of March. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stronger than expected, and the futures market offered premiums and opportunities for positive arbitrage. However, major refineries in South China increased production and lowered prices, impacting the local market and even having a price advantage when transported to Northeast China considering logistics costs. Additionally, the continuous pressure from the US on Venezuela and the potential for military conflict led to supply disruptions in the asphalt raw material end, increasing asphalt price volatility [2]. - Refinery开工率 increased this week due to the resumption of production in Shandong refineries and increased production by major South China refineries, driving up overall asphalt supply. On the demand side, spot market trading improved as prices declined, but the end - of - peak - season performance in the South was not as expected. Factory inventories slightly increased, while social inventories remained stable. Crude oil prices, the cost factor, were weakly volatile. Spot basis remained stable, consistent with the weakening demand trend. In the long - term, demand in the North will end with the drop in temperature, while the end - of - peak - season demand in the South may boost overall consumption. Overall, the peak season for asphalt did not exceed expectations. In the short - term, the focus should be on the subsequent winter storage situation of refineries and whether they will further adjust prices to stimulate purchasing. Due to geopolitical and negotiation uncertainties in the crude oil cost factor, asphalt is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The release of winter storage policies in Shandong provided a valuation anchor for the spot market. The potential for the US to promote an early end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict suppressed crude oil prices, while the increased military threat to Venezuela pushed up futures prices due to raw material shortage expectations. The US's strengthened sanctions on Russian oil companies may cause short - term disruptions to domestic refinery raw material imports [2][7]. - The increase in low - price point - of - sale resources and the release of short - term low - price contracts by some local refineries. Currently, asphalt is in the end - of - peak - season stage. A significant downward movement in asphalt prices still depends on the cost factor, crude oil. Given the current crude oil trend and refinery profits, this year's winter storage may not provide a favorable basis spread for the mid - and downstream, and there may still be a problem of insufficient volume [7]. - The expected demand impulse in the "15th Five - Year Plan" was a lackluster performance, mainly due to the persistent shortage of funds [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to be bullish and volatile. Technical analysis should focus on the support level performance of BU2603. Strategy recommendations in this part are temporarily suspended [11]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The basis is expected to be bearish as spot prices are weak and the demand peak is passing. The calendar spread may show a weakening seasonal trend as the basis is weak. The crack spread between asphalt and crude oil has a short - term bullish driver. Detailed strategies in this part are temporarily suspended [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is predicted to be between 2,800 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 21.15%, and its historical percentile over three years is 38.97% [12]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, if product inventories are high and there are concerns about price drops, companies can short asphalt futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a short - selling ratio of 25% in the range of 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a selling ratio of 20% in the range of 30 - 40 yuan/ton. For procurement management, if the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase according to orders, they can buy asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a selling ratio of 20% in the range of 25 - 35 yuan/ton [12][13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: A Shandong refinery released a winter storage contract at 2,900 yuan/ton, boosting market expectations. Tensions between the US and Venezuela increased, with the possibility of military conflict [18]. - **Likely Negative Information**: Asphalt consumption entered the off - season, and demand was under pressure. The US urged Ukraine to resolve the battlefield issue, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil may decline. Major South China refineries increased production and lowered prices, impacting the spot market [18]. - **Domestic Asphalt Market Overview**: This week, asphalt prices in Northeast and North China increased by 15 - 20 yuan/ton, while prices in Northwest, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Southwest China decreased by 25 - 350 yuan/ton. In North China, limited spot resource circulation was beneficial for traders to raise prices. In the Northwest, the price of Zhenhai's rail - transported asphalt decreased, lowering the regional price center. In Shandong, the resumption of production by the main refinery increased supply and decreased demand, leading to price drops for some local brands. In East China, supply was abundant, and some prices were lowered. In South China, a major refinery significantly increased production and reduced prices for road, sea, and rail transportation to ensure smooth sales [17]. - **Spot Market Outlook**: Demand in the North will stop, but limited supply growth and low factory inventories will limit price drops. In the South, the end - of - peak - season demand is decreasing, and sufficient supply in South and East China is negative for asphalt prices [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Geopolitical situation changes, including Venezuela's latest crude oil shipping and arrival logistics. - Russia's crude oil export and shipping situation, the possibility of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and changes in floating storage inventories at sea. - Asphalt winter storage policies [20]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: This week, asphalt futures prices showed a volatile trend, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short positions of key profitable seats in the asphalt market decreased, indicating that some institutions were more optimistic about the future. Overall, the decrease in net short positions increased the downward resistance of asphalt, and the market may continue to be volatile in the short - term [22]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the asphalt basis structure showed signs of stabilization, with the futures market close to parity. The release of winter storage policies supported market activity, despite weak demand [26]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The asphalt calendar spread structure continued to weaken, in line with the approaching off - season [37]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - As of December 18, compared with December 11, the price of coking materials in Shandong remained stable at 3,525 yuan/ton. Weak international oil prices earlier led to price drops in diesel and petroleum coke, reducing market enthusiasm for coking materials. However, later price increases in crude oil improved market trading. The mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,960 - 3,350 yuan/ton. The demand for asphalt was shrinking, and the high prices of Sinopec refineries hindered sales. On Monday, the settlement price was lowered by 100 yuan/ton, and preferential policies were introduced, increasing the enthusiasm of mid - and downstream users. Some local refineries' short - term contract prices dropped below 2,800 yuan/ton. The main local refineries introduced winter storage policies at 2,920 yuan/ton, which were well - received by end - users. This week, the price gap between asphalt and coking materials in Shandong widened to over 600 yuan/ton, slightly reducing the profitability of asphalt production. Uncertain future supply of diluted asphalt led some refineries to produce asphalt at low levels or intermittently, providing some bottom support for asphalt prices [41]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: South Korean asphalt cargoes arriving in East China cost 400 - 410 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 3,280 - 3,360 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands had a premium over domestic products due to quality and specific project demand. Mid - and downstream users in East China mainly consumed inventory. Some individual brands with lower prices, such as the January cargoes with a duty - paid price of 2,950 yuan/ton in East China, were attractive to some mid - and downstream users [49]. - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Markets**: Singaporean asphalt cargoes arriving in South China cost 490 - 500 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 3,930 - 4,010 yuan/ton. Thai asphalt cargoes arriving in South China cost 515 - 525 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 4,130 - 4,210 yuan/ton. The end - of - peak - season demand in South China supported the consumption of imported resources, most of which were from previous long - term contracts. In Southeast Asia, reduced typhoon activity increased demand, gradually consuming inventory, which will support the local spot market in the future [49]. - **Imported Asphalt Market Overview and Outlook**: Affected by the decline in crude oil and fuel oil prices, the price of some South Korean January cargoes continued to fall [49]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis 3.5.1 Supply and Forecast - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, from January to November 2025, China's asphalt production was 26.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 million tons or 12%. Among them, PetroChina's refineries produced 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 million tons or 32%; Sinopec's refineries produced 5.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.75 million tons or 11%; CNOOC's asphalt production was 1.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%; and local refineries produced 13.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons or 19%. Based on the current production plan, China's asphalt production from January to December 2025 is expected to be about 28.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.79 million tons or 11%. It is expected that PetroChina's refineries will produce about 5.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 31%; Sinopec's refineries will produce about 6.29 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 million tons or 13%; CNOOC's asphalt production will be about 2.10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%; and local refineries will produce about 14.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.28 million tons or 19% [52]. 3.5.2 Demand and Forecast - Demand in Central and South China was steadily released, increasing the operating rate of modified asphalt production. However, the end - of - peak - season demand in East China decreased, reducing the operating rate of modified asphalt production [71]. 3.5.3 Inventory and Forecast - In North, Northwest, and Northeast China, some social warehouses received winter storage resources, increasing the local social inventory rate. In Central China, reduced project demand in some areas and the receipt of shipping resources in some social warehouses also increased the social inventory rate [86]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet for asphalt from January to November 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes [111]. 3.5.5 Weather Outlook In the next 10 days (December 20 - 29), cumulative precipitation in northern and southwestern Xinjiang, western Gansu, southern Shaanxi, northeastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, Shandong, Jianghan, northern and western Jiangnan, South China, and eastern Southwest China will be 5 - 20 mm. In some areas of southwestern Xinjiang, southern Sichuan, Chongqing, eastern Guizhou, and Taiwan, it will be 25 - 40 mm, with local areas exceeding 50 mm. Cumulative precipitation in Northeast China and eastern Southwest China will be 40 - 80% higher than the same period of the year, with some areas more than doubling. Precipitation in most other areas of China will be significantly lower [112].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [2]. - The supply of iron ore has slightly increased, while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to rise. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract [5]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are any unexpected situations, as well as the inflection points of sentiment and prices [9]. - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak in the short term, and it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti-involution" related commodities improves. Attention should be paid to new supply-side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to be affected by the "anti-involution" policy and the weak supply and demand situation. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. - The float glass market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance and is expected to continue to show a narrow-range fluctuation trend in the short term [19]. - The price of soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 43,097 tons, a net increase of 2,418 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.607057 million lots, a net increase of 4,982 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 108,128 tons, a net decrease of 886 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.190487 million lots, a net increase of 42,139 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral to stable overall performance. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory also increased this week [2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, which will provide some support for steel demand, but the steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 760.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% (+3.50). The position decreased by 2,568 lots to 465,500 lots. The weighted position was 882,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 70.00 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.43% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The shipments from Australia increased, while those from Brazil decreased. The shipments from non-mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near-term arrivals decreased [5]. - The daily average pig iron output decreased to below 2.3 million tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On December 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.32% at 5,730 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.96% at 5,470 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. The supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced [10]. - The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases, especially the potential impact of sudden changes in the manganese ore market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% (+160). The weighted contract position decreased by 35,281 lots to 459,941 lots. The spot price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 810 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 57,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% (+1,425). The weighted contract position increased by 4,484 lots to 269,692 lots. The average spot prices of N-type granular silicon, dense material, and reclaimed material remained unchanged, with a basis of -4,890 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck in decline, and the demand has weakened. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may rebound if the sentiment of related commodities improves [14]. - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.03% (-20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 68,030 and 67,811 lots respectively [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.76% (-31). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 54,680 and 61,494 lots respectively [20]. Strategy Views - The supply of glass decreased due to cold repairs, and the market sales were supported to some extent. However, due to high inventory and weak terminal demand, the upward space was limited. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [19]. - The supply of soda ash increased due to the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and new capacity releases. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market this week was weak, and the prices of finished steel products showed a volatile trend. Fundamentally, the production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and inventory continued to decline, with an overall performance of being neutral to stable. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, the pressure on inventory reduction increased further, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in the factory warehouse this week. - Politically, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand, optimizing project implementation and bond management, and promoting urban renewal. The real estate industry will continue the main tone of "controlling increments and reducing inventory", and new construction is expected to remain weak. - Overall, terminal demand remains weak, the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent, and steel prices may fluctuate in the bottom range. As the winter storage season approaches, attention should be paid to winter storage policies. [10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side - **Production Volume**: This week, the total rebar production was 1.79 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%. The cumulative production was 105.413 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. Long-process production was 1.51 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%. Short-process production was 280,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. [51] - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87%, the same as the previous value, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53%, a decrease from the previous value of 54%. [54] - **Hot Metal Production**: The average daily hot metal production this week was 2.32 million tons, the same as the previous value. [59] - **Regional Production**: The rebar production in the northern region was 300,000 tons, down from the previous value of 350,000 tons, and in the southern region was 690,000 tons, down from the previous value of 710,000 tons. In the East China region, it was 800,000 tons, with Jiangsu at 320,000 tons, Shandong at 60,000 tons, and Anhui at 150,000 tons. Guangdong's production was 220,000 tons, and Guangxi's was 80,000 tons. [62][65][68] 3.2 Demand Side - **Building Materials Trading Volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons, up from the previous week's 105,098 tons. The trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 19,200 tons, the same as last week. - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.03 million tons, and in East China, it was 1 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 360,000 tons, in South China, it was 300,000 tons, in North China, it was 100,000 tons, in Central China, it was 120,000 tons, in Northeast China, it was 40,000 tons, and in Northwest China, it was 140,000 tons. - **Cement Price**: The price of cement P.O42.5 in Hangzhou was 475 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was 435 yuan/ton. [71][79][86] 3.3 Import and Export - In October, the import of steel billets was 30,000 tons. [9] 3.4 Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of rebar was 3.39 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The factory warehouse inventory was 1.41 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. The total inventory was 4.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. The inventory of steel billets in Tangshan was 1.16 million tons, the same as the previous value. - **Regional Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 4.94 million tons, in East China was 2.57 million tons, in Hangzhou was 720,000 tons, and in Shanghai was 310,000 tons. In South China, it was 440,000 tons, in North China, it was 690,000 tons, in Central China, it was 300,000 tons, in Northwest China, it was 460,000 tons, in Southwest China, it was 420,000 tons, and in Northeast China, it was 350,000 tons. [89][91][94] 3.5 Profit - The cost of hot metal was 2,693 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was -24 yuan/ton. The electric furnace profit was -24 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week. The rebar blast furnace profit was 7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week. [9][39] 3.6 Basis - The lowest warehouse receipt basis was 111 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.5%. The 01 basis was 119 yuan/ton, the 05 basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the 10 basis was 101 yuan/ton. [10][20] 3.7 Spread - **Rolled-Rebar Spread**: The rolled-rebar spread in Beijing was 220 yuan/ton, up from last week's 180 yuan/ton. In Shanghai, it was 0 yuan/ton, up from last week's -20 yuan/ton. In Guangzhou, it was -230 yuan/ton, down from last week's -210 yuan/ton. - **North-South Spread**: The Shanghai-Beijing spread was 130 yuan/ton, up from last week's 90 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou-Shanghai spread was 122 yuan/ton, down from last week's 151 yuan/ton. - **Spiral Premium**: The spiral premium in Beijing was 210 yuan/ton, up from last week's 200 yuan/ton. In Shanghai, it was 180 yuan/ton, the same as last week. In Guangzhou, it was 190 yuan/ton, the same as last week. - **Rebar-Billet Spread and Domestic-International Spread**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3,070 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of rebar HRB400E Φ20 in Beijing was 3,140 yuan/ton, the FOB export price of rebar in China was 447 US dollars/ton, the CFR import price of rebar in Southeast Asia was 470 US dollars/ton, in the United States was 960 US dollars/ton, in the EU was 610 US dollars/ton, and in the Middle East (UAE origin) was 655 US dollars/ton. - **Rebar-Coke Ratio and Rebar-Iron Ore Ratio**: The lowest spot price of rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1,438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 892 yuan/ton. [25][28][30][33][36] 3.8 Trading Strategy Suggestion No trading strategy suggestions were provided. [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

Oil Market - On Wednesday, oil prices showed a V-shaped recovery, with WTI January contract closing at $58.46 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.36%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $62.21 per barrel, up $0.27 (0.44%) [2][16] - EIA report indicated a decrease in US crude oil inventory by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, against an expected decline of 2.3 million barrels [2][16] - US crude oil net imports increased by 212,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day [2][16] - Geopolitical factors, including the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil flows and US military actions against a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker, are influencing current oil price movements [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.65% to 2427 yuan per ton [3][17] - Low-sulfur fuel oil contract decreased by 0.17% to 3009 yuan per ton [3][17] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 0.24% to 2940 yuan per ton [4][18] - Social inventory rate decreased by 0.56% to 23.86%, while total inventory at domestic refineries increased by 0.21% to 27.21% [4][18] - Winter storage prices for asphalt are expected to decline to near five-year lows, predicted to be between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 230 yuan per ton to 15215 yuan per ton [5][19] - The border situation between Thailand and Cambodia is expected to reduce rubber production by 487,000 kilograms per day [5][19] - Limited demand support is noted despite a slight rebound in raw material prices [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4616 yuan per ton, down 0.6% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6746 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [6][20] - The overall supply structure for ethylene glycol is tightening, but long-term inventory pressure remains [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2078 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices between $241-245 per ton [7][21] - Iranian facility shutdowns are expected to reduce imports in mid-December to January [7][21] - Methanol prices are anticipated to remain stable at the bottom due to limited upside potential [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6150-6400 yuan per ton [8][22] - Production margins for various methods of polypropylene production are negative, indicating cost pressures [8][22] - The market is transitioning to a supply-driven environment with high inventory pressure [8][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China decreased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4300-4420 yuan per ton [9][23] - Supply is expected to remain high while domestic demand is slowing down due to reduced construction activity [9][23] - Overall market sentiment remains bearish, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [9][23] Urea - Urea futures showed wide fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1645 yuan per ton [10][24] - Market prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 10 yuan to 1700 yuan and 1690 yuan respectively [10][24] - The supply situation remains uncertain, with production rates holding steady [10][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures continued to weaken, closing at 1094 yuan per ton, down 2.93% [11][25] - The industry operating rate remains at 84.22%, with supply expected to increase [11][25] - Demand is lackluster, with limited large-scale inventory accumulation [11][25] Glass - Glass futures prices continued to decline, closing at 964 yuan per ton, down 2.13% [12][26] - The average price for float glass remained stable at 1097 yuan per ton [12][26] - Market dynamics show weak demand and limited production changes, leading to a bearish outlook [12][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The mid - term weakness of crude oil may not support large - scale winter storage of asphalt. Refinery profits offer limited room for price cuts, suppressing the enthusiasm for winter storage, which may face a "lack of volume" problem. The winter storage policy in Shandong is expected to be announced next week, with prices likely around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton [2]. - This week, the overall asphalt supply slightly decreased due to adjustments in North China refineries. The demand improved as prices dropped, mainly consuming social inventories. The peak season in the south did not exceed expectations. Factory inventories slightly increased, while social inventories decreased. Crude oil prices were weakly volatile, and the spot basis continued to weaken. In the long - term, northern demand will end with falling temperatures, while southern demand may increase after rainfall decreases [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter storage and whether refineries will adjust prices to stimulate purchases. The long - term market will be affected by macro factors, policies, winter storage, and geopolitical situations [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The mid - term weakness of crude oil and limited refinery profit margins may lead to insufficient winter storage volume. The winter storage price in Shandong is expected to be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. After the policy is announced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Options sellers can be used for two - way strategies, or opportunities for long - position in BU03 basis can be considered [2]. - Other factors remain unchanged. Supply decreased slightly this week, demand improved as prices dropped, and the market is in a weakly volatile state. Attention should be paid to winter storage and price adjustments by refineries [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The market is expected to be weakly volatile. Technical analysis suggests paying attention to the pressure level of 3050 and support level of 2950 for BU2601. The basis is expected to be bearish, the monthly spread may weaken seasonally, and there is no obvious driver for the crack spread between asphalt and crude oil, so it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when product inventories are high, short - selling asphalt futures or selling call options can be used to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when inventory is low, buying asphalt futures or selling put options can be used to lock in purchase costs and reduce expenses [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Domestic Asphalt Market Review**: Prices in South China, Shandong, Northwest, Northeast, and North China decreased by 25 - 350 yuan/ton this week. Northern demand decreased, and some refineries in the Northwest offered low - price winter storage. In South China, supply increased, and prices decreased. The East China market had sufficient supply [18]. - **Spot Market Outlook**: Asphalt consumption is entering the off - season, demand is under pressure, Shandong refineries have复产 plans, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil may decline [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Geopolitical situation changes, including the shipping and arrival of Venezuelan crude oil, Russian crude oil exports, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and changes in floating storage inventories at sea. Also, pay attention to the asphalt winter storage policy [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement**: This week, the asphalt price fluctuated, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key profitable seats decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The asphalt basis structure weakened significantly this week, with the spot price close to the futures price. This is because spot trading was dull, and low - price contract resources supported market activity [26]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The monthly spread structure of asphalt continued to weaken, which is in line with the characteristics of the off - season [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - In the coking material market, the price of Shandong coking material increased by 75 to 3500 yuan/ton as of December 4. The profit of coking units improved, but high - price resource transactions were limited. The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 25 to 2960 - 3450 yuan/ton. The demand decreased, supply increased, and the price may continue to fall. The price difference between asphalt and coking material widened, but most asphalt plants have no plans to switch to producing coking materials in the short term [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 400 - 410 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3300 - 3380 yuan/ton. Some high - speed projects in East China are driving the consumption of imported asphalt, while demand in the North has decreased significantly [51]. - **New - Malaysia - Thailand Market**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 500 - 520 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4030 - 4190 yuan/ton. The CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 515 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 4150 - 4230 yuan/ton. The overall demand is stable, but the consumption of imported asphalt is limited due to competition from domestic resources [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - From January to October 2025, China's asphalt production was 2361 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 267 million tons or 13%. From January to November, the expected production is about 2585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260 million tons or 11% [54]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - Most modified asphalt plants in the North have stopped production, while demand in the South has increased due to construction rush, leading to an increase in the local modified asphalt operating rate [74]. 5.3 Inventory Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast and Northwest will gradually receive refinery resources, and inventory levels will slowly rise. In the South, stable project construction has led to a continuous decline in social inventory levels [88]. 5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes from January to October 2025 [111]. 5.5 Weather Outlook - In the next 10 days (December 6 - 15), many regions in China will have precipitation, with some areas having higher precipitation than the same period of the year, while some areas will have less precipitation [112].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a weakening bullish trend in hot-rolled coil (热卷) commodities, with over 50 stock indices ceasing tracking [2][3] - The quantitative indicators for hot-rolled coil show a trend score of 1.15, with a market valuation of 1.02, historical low volatility at 32.39, and a turnover rate of 0.27 [4] - The supply of hot-rolled coil is at a weekly production of 3.19 million tons, which is higher than the same period in previous years, with total inventory at 4.01 million tons, significantly above historical levels [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 156.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, achieving a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan [7] - As of December 2, two steel mills have announced winter storage policies [8] - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide increased by 1.5715 million tons to 15.91569 million tons compared to the previous week [9] Group 3 - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a fluctuating market with bullish emotions, showing a trend degree of 24% for bullish and 6% for bearish [20] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases include BR rubber at 3.99%, pulp at 2.62%, and silver at 2.46% [21] - The top three commodities with the largest increase in positions are asphalt with 14,100 contracts, lithium carbonate with 8,606 contracts, and silicon iron with 8,382 contracts [21]