2025 年钾肥市场维持紧平衡态势。最新签订的大合同价格为每吨 348 美元， 比去年上涨 3 美元。这一价格奠定了 2026 年的价格中枢，预计明年整体钾肥 价格将继续保持紧张态势。短期来看，氯化钾库存较低，截至 11 月底库存约 为 230 万吨，同比下降 25%，远低于 400 万吨的历史安全线。此外，港口新 到货有限，加上国内企业进入冬季检修期，产量环比持续下降，供给端偏紧。 北方冬储备货启动、复合肥企业开工率回升，使得短期供需强劲。中长期来看， 全球钾肥增量有限，仅老挝几家中企有新增产能，而需求在人口增长和粮食安 动力煤价格回调至 791 元/吨，产地价格指数下降。电厂补库充足，日 耗水平较低，非电企业按需采购。部分煤矿进入检修期，产量受限。煤 炭企业面临浮动长期定价机制和长协性价比不足的挑战。 30 个重点城市房地产成交环比持平，去化率持续下降。部分头部房企面 临流动性风险。核心城市二手房价格下降，新房销售压力增加。地产股 波动更多来自政策预期，年底前是较好的交易时间节点，关注超跌央企 和经营质量改善的企业。 全战略推动下稳定增长，因此明年全球市场仍将偏紧。 周期演绎到了什么阶段？20251207 ...

Group 1: Construction Materials Sector - The construction materials sector is currently at a low point in terms of profitability, valuation, and holdings, but some leading companies have begun to recover from this bottom, with expectations of a revival in consumer building materials driven by policy support [1] - Despite the basic fundamentals still being on the downside, the sector has experienced a four-year decline, and the supply clearing and transformation of revenue structures are benefiting some leading companies, which are showing signs of stabilization in operations [1] - The report highlights strong operational resilience among leading companies in the consumer building materials segment, with a stable long-term demand and an improving competitive landscape, indicating significant growth potential for quality leaders [1] Group 2: Cement Market - The national average price of cement has slightly decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with the current price at 351 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 77.67 RMB/ton [2] - The national cement shipment rate stands at 45.73%, showing a week-on-week decline of 0.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 percentage points [2] - The industry valuation remains at historical low levels, with a focus on companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others [2] Group 3: Glass Market - The price of float glass has weakened, with the average price at 1154 RMB/ton, down 2.8% week-on-week and 20.6% year-on-year [3] - Inventory levels have increased, with stock days rising to 30.36 days, indicating a growing supply [3] - Leading glass companies are currently undervalued, with attention on firms like Xinyi Glass and others [3] Group 4: Fiberglass and Composite Materials - The market price for fiberglass yarn has shown slight fluctuations, with mainstream transaction prices for 2400tex yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week [4] - Electronic yarn prices have remained stable, with G75 mainstream quotes between 8800 and 9300 RMB/ton [4] - Leading companies in the fiberglass and composite materials sector are well-positioned, with a focus on firms like China Jushi and others [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate and Related Industries Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the real estate industry and its related sectors, particularly focusing on the current economic pressures and the need for policy interventions to stabilize the market [1][5][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Downturn**: There is increasing downward pressure on the macro economy in Q4, with weak real estate data indicating a decline in both sales area and amount year-on-year and month-on-month. Housing prices are accelerating downward, necessitating intervention through stable real estate policies [1][3][4]. 2. **Policy Intervention**: The current timing is deemed appropriate for the introduction of new real estate policies to alleviate pressures on banks' net interest margins and mortgage delinquency rates. High-quality leading real estate companies are already showing upward momentum, suggesting a high credibility of policy rumors [1][5]. 3. **Investment Value**: The real estate and its industrial chain are considered to be at a long-term bottom with a favorable chip structure. In a declining risk appetite environment, these sectors possess investment value, particularly benefiting from demand-side policies like loan interest subsidies [1][6]. 4. **Building Materials Sector**: The building materials industry is not uniform; segments such as cement are showing profit improvements, while coatings have been recovering for nearly a year. Waterproof materials are also showing signs of improvement, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][8]. 5. **Government Policies**: Local governments are actively introducing policies for quality housing construction, raising standards for green building materials and waterproof materials. The waterproof materials price index has bottomed out, signaling an industry clearing phase where leading companies have begun to raise prices [1][9]. Additional Insights 1. **Market Sentiment**: Despite a generally low market sentiment, the real estate and building materials sectors are performing relatively well, driven by rumors of three key policy points: interest subsidies for new personal housing loans, increased personal income tax deductions for mortgage borrowers, and reduced housing transaction taxes [2]. 2. **Sales Data**: In October, sales area decreased by 19% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, while sales amount fell by 24% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month. The average selling price has dropped by 6.9% this year, with a month-on-month decline of 5.4% in October [3][4]. 3. **Future Opportunities**: There are potential opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in the building materials and real estate sectors due to increased fiscal pressure on local governments, which may lead to higher government asset securitization ratios. Companies with state-owned backgrounds, such as Donghu Gaoxin and Gaoxin Development, are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [3][13]. Noteworthy Companies and Performance 1. **Oriental Yuhong**: The company reported a positive revenue growth in Q3, with improving gross margins and net profits. It has also reduced management costs through layoffs and is expanding into new business areas and overseas production [10]. 2. **North New Materials**: This company is noted for its low valuation (approximately 10 times earnings), a dividend yield of about 3%, and significant cash reserves for capital expenditures. Expected performance for the year is around 3.6 billion yuan, with revenue between 33-35 billion yuan [10]. 3. **Three Trees**: The coatings sector, represented by Three Trees, has shown continuous performance improvement, with stock prices doubling over the past year due to cost reductions enhancing gross margins [11]. Sector-Specific Trends 1. **Tile Industry**: Although currently less favorable, companies like Dongpeng Holdings are expected to benefit from market recovery due to pre-allocated channel expenses that could convert into profits when the market rebounds [12]. 2. **Investment Recommendations**: The focus should be on leading companies in waterproofing, coatings, and board materials, as these sectors are showing signs of recovery and potential growth [12].

Market Overview - The three major indices showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52% and the Northern Securities 50 dropped by 1.26% [3] - Trading volume increased significantly, with a total turnover of 16,487 billion, up by 1,526 billion compared to the same time yesterday, indicating concentrated capital flow into specific sectors [3] Strong Performing Sectors - The metals and gold sectors were the most notable gainers, with companies like Northern Copper and Hunan Silver reaching their daily limit, driven by international risk aversion and supply-demand dynamics in commodities [3] - The real estate sector also showed strong activity, with stocks like Rongsheng Development and Huaxia Happiness hitting their daily limit, reflecting market expectations regarding real estate policies [3] - The storage chip sector remained resilient, with companies like Shannon Chip and Jiangbo Long experiencing gains, signaling a recovery in the industry cycle [3] Weak Performing Sectors - The liquor sector, including stocks like Guojiao and Shede Liquor, experienced a decline after an initial rise, attributed to short-term emotional fluctuations rather than fundamental changes [4] - The gaming and photovoltaic equipment sectors also faced adjustments, with companies like Youzu Network dropping over 5%, influenced by recent policy changes and demand fluctuations [4] - The overall market volatility should not be overly scrutinized, as the focus should be on capital flow and the sustainability of sectoral support [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shown a significant dulling in its reaction to negative news, with trading volume and sentiment remaining strong. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support have increased the willingness to allocate to equity assets, while "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. However, due to the lack of substantial positive factors at home and abroad and the reduced discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.42%, up 8.13bp; DR007 at 1.54%, up 6.42bp; GC001 at 1.49%, up 14.00bp; GC007 at 1.56%, up 5.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.37%, unchanged; 5 - year treasury at 1.52%, up 0.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, unchanged; 10 - year US treasury at 4.43%, up 8.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 1197 billion yuan. This week, 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 15 [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 80048, down 51.0; IF open interest was 263468, down 6.8; IH volume was 41336, down 54.4; IH open interest was down 13.2; IC volume was 66406, down 46.3; IC open interest was 227301, down 6.1; IM volume was 132782, down 50.4; IM open interest was 326601, down 8.0. The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are also provided [5][8]. - **Stock Index Spot**: The CSI 300 rose 0.07% to 4017.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.04% to 2757.8; the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 6020.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.02% to 6462.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 14588 billion yuan, a decrease of 2534 billion yuan from last Friday. Industry sectors were mostly up, with precious metals, energy metals, etc. leading the gains, and diversified finance, gaming, etc. leading the losses [6]. 3.3 Export Data - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, up from 4.8% in the previous period. During the Sino - US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in June, Sino - US foreign trade recovered significantly, with exports to the US improving by 32.44% month - on - month to 381.7 billion US dollars, and the proportion in total exports rising from 9.12% in May to 11.74%. Exports to Africa also had a good performance. However, with the implementation of reciprocal tariff measures in August, Sino - US trade may face challenges [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned in first-tier and core second-tier cities [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +3.4%, ranking second among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +2.7%, ranking sixth [26]. - New housing transactions have shown a slight decline, with a total of 278 million square meters sold across 47 cities, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 16% [4][47]. - The government is expected to introduce new stimulus policies for the real estate sector by the end of April, aiming to stabilize economic recovery [5][14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report highlights that the A-share real estate sector's performance was +3.4%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector's performance was +2.7% [26]. - The top five performing real estate stocks included Jianye Real Estate and Rongfeng Holdings, with increases of +40.5% and +31.9% respectively [26]. Land Transaction Data - In the week of April 12-18, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 286 million square meters, a decrease of 49% week-on-week and 65% year-on-year, with an average premium rate of 5% [40]. - Year-to-date, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities reached 10,216 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year change of -0.1% [40]. New Housing Transactions - The report indicates that new housing sales in 47 cities totaled 278 million square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 16% [4][47]. - First-tier cities experienced a week-on-week increase of 5%, while second-tier cities saw a decrease of 8% [4][47]. Policy Expectations - The report notes that the government is actively pursuing land and stock housing acquisition, with over 4 million square meters of idle land targeted for acquisition, amounting to 128.2 billion yuan [5][14]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April is anticipated to be a critical period for the introduction of new real estate policies [5][14]. Real Estate Data Trends - Real estate development investment from January to March 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, while new construction area decreased by 24.4% [6][15]. - The report indicates that housing prices are stabilizing, with first-tier cities showing a slight increase in second-hand housing prices [6][16].