这周打开大宗商品行情，不少老玩家都忍不住念叨"这波动静够大"——铜价一下子飙出一年来最大单周涨幅，眼看就要摸到去年的纪录高点；金价更邪 乎，直接奔着七周连涨去了，离之前的历史高点就差口气；就连原油，也被特朗普的一句话搅得上下晃。我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，盯大宗商 品这么多年，最清楚这种"热闹"背后，从来不是单一消息在推，得慢慢捋才知道门道。 先说原油，周五突然涨了点，表面看是特朗普给哈马斯下了最后通牒，说不接受停火计划就要有严重后果，这事儿一出来，大家立马担心中东那边的石 油供应会不会出问题，毕竟那儿可是全球原油的"命脉"之一，加上乌克兰又说炸了俄罗斯的炼油厂，短期确实给油价添了层"风险buff"。但你要是往深了 看，这周油价其实是跌了7.4%的，因为市场心里还揣着个大疑问——OPEC+马上要商量要不要加快复产，这可是直接关系到全球原油供需的大事；再加 上美国为了保伊拉克的原油出口一直在忙活，还有政府停摆的事儿，这些都让不少人对油价不敢太乐观。所以原油这波涨，更像是短期消息搅出来的波 动，中长线看，还得等OPEC+的决定和供需真章。 再看铜——这周最亮眼的当属它，单周涨了5.2%，创下一年来最大涨幅， ...

说实在的，干了20年财经，见过不少这样的"分化行情"——一边是原油被供需消息搅得往下走，一边是黄金靠避险情绪往上冲，锡价又凭着供应和需求的 利好悄悄发力。对咱们中长线投资者来说，不用盯着短期涨跌慌神，得看透背后的核心逻辑：OPEC+的增产博弈、美国政策的连锁反应、还有大宗商品 的供需缺口，这些才是决定趋势的关键。好了，今儿的大宗商品就跟大家聊到这，我是帮主郑重，咱们下期接着盘市场里的门道。 再看这边涨疯了的黄金，那才叫"避险王者"的样子。连着五天往上走，最高摸到了3895.38美元一盎司，妥妥的历史新高。这波涨势，全靠美国政府"添把 火"——周三开始停摆了，这可是七年来头一遭。一停摆麻烦就来了，像周五要出的非农就业数据这些关键经济数据，大概率要推迟发布，大家摸不清美 国经济到底咋样，美元也可能受影响，手里的钱没处放，自然就往黄金里钻。不光黄金，白银也跟着跳，一度涨了2.5%，到47.829美元一盎司，离历史高 位就差不到4%，今年到现在都涨了超60%，势头比黄金还猛。 最后聊聊悄悄发力的锡价，这玩意儿最近可是"闷声发大财"。周三LME期锡涨了1.7%，收在36013美元/吨，背后是印尼动真格了——全球第二大锡 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52% and the Northern Securities 50 dropped by 1.26% [3] - Trading volume increased significantly, with a total turnover of 16,487 billion, up by 1,526 billion compared to the same time yesterday, indicating concentrated capital flow into specific sectors [3] Strong Performing Sectors - The metals and gold sectors were the most notable gainers, with companies like Northern Copper and Hunan Silver reaching their daily limit, driven by international risk aversion and supply-demand dynamics in commodities [3] - The real estate sector also showed strong activity, with stocks like Rongsheng Development and Huaxia Happiness hitting their daily limit, reflecting market expectations regarding real estate policies [3] - The storage chip sector remained resilient, with companies like Shannon Chip and Jiangbo Long experiencing gains, signaling a recovery in the industry cycle [3] Weak Performing Sectors - The liquor sector, including stocks like Guojiao and Shede Liquor, experienced a decline after an initial rise, attributed to short-term emotional fluctuations rather than fundamental changes [4] - The gaming and photovoltaic equipment sectors also faced adjustments, with companies like Youzu Network dropping over 5%, influenced by recent policy changes and demand fluctuations [4] - The overall market volatility should not be overly scrutinized, as the focus should be on capital flow and the sustainability of sectoral support [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views - The international soybean market is generally characterized by a relatively loose supply - demand balance. The US soybean market may still face pressure, while the situation of Brazil and Argentina also has an impact on the market. The domestic soybean market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - The raw sugar market is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying at the bottom, maintaining short - term oscillations. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - The palm oil market is in a stage of production and inventory accumulation, and the domestic soybean oil market is in a phased inventory accumulation. The rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support on the futures market. Overall, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak. [20] - The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] Summary by Categories Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1012.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.21% to $279 per short ton. [2] - **相关资讯**: As of July 10, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 147,045 tons. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. The US soybean meal export sales reached 2 million tons as of July 3. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. [2][3] - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has a loose supply - demand balance. The domestic market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - **策略建议**: For unilateral trading, buy in small quantities at low points; for arbitrage, conduct M91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [7] Sugar - **外盘情况**: The ICE US sugar futures dropped 1.57% to 16.31 cents per pound. [8] - **重要资讯**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar rose, and the demand in the peak season led to inventory reduction. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons. In the 2024/2025 season, Yunnan's sugar production increased significantly. [9][10][11] - **逻辑分析**: The raw sugar market is weak but may oscillate. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - **持仓建议**: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options. [13][14] Oil - **外盘情况**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil futures changed by 0.02% to 53.95 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil futures changed by - 0.09% to 4,228 ringgit per ton. [16] - **相关资讯**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60%, and the total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6%. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. As of July 11, the domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories increased. [17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**: The palm oil market is in production and inventory accumulation. The domestic soybean oil market is in phased inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support. [20] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak, and it may oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: The CBOT corn futures rose, with the December contract up 2.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel. [25] - **重要资讯**: The CBOT corn futures rose due to bargain - hunting and short - covering. The US corn production is expected to be strong. Brazil's corn shipments decreased. The good - excellent rate of US corn was 74%. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable. [26] - **逻辑分析**: The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the December US corn futures will oscillate at the bottom, and the September contract should be observed; for arbitrage, close the long - corn and short - September - corn positions gradually; for options, those with spot can consider the high - selling strategy carefully. [28][29][30] Pig - **相关资讯**: The pig price oscillated. The prices of piglets and sows were stable. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.6%. [32] - **逻辑分析**: The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - **策略建议**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [33] Peanut - **重要资讯**: The prices of peanuts in different regions were stable. The arrival volume of an oil factory was 200 tons. The peanut oil price was stable, and the peanut meal sales were slow. As of July 10, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased. [35] - **逻辑分析**: The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, short the October contract at high prices and wait and see currently; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option. [37][39][40] Egg - **重要资讯**: The egg price in the main production and sales areas rose. The inventory of laying hens increased in June. The egg sales volume decreased. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit decreased. [42][43][44] - **交易逻辑**: The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [45] Apple - **重要资讯**: As of July 2, the apple cold - storage inventory was 993,100 tons. In May 2025, the apple import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased. The apple price in the origin was stable, and the sales were slow. [47] - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider buying low and selling high; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [50][54] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: The ICE US cotton futures rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound. [52] - **重要资讯**: As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US cotton was 54%. As of July 3, the un - priced contracts of ICE cotton increased. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased slightly. [53][54][55] - **交易逻辑**: The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [57][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Domestic soybeans face inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the domestic market is influenced by the weak international market. In the oil sector, palm oil is in a production - inventory increase phase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand characteristics. Corn has a complex domestic supply - demand situation, and its futures are expected to bottom - oscillate. The hog market is expected to be volatile under a loose supply - demand situation. Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure. The egg market has different trends for different contracts. Apples are expected to be volatile in the short term. Cotton is expected to have limited upward space [5][9][16][25][30][35][42][47][52] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1013.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT meal index fell 0.21% to 280.4 dollars/short ton [2] - **Information**: USDA export sales and monthly supply - demand report have certain forecasts. Brazilian farmers sold less soybeans in 2025, and domestic oil mill data shows supply - demand status [2][3] - **Logic**: International and domestic soybean markets have a loose supply - demand balance [5] - **Strategy**: Low - point long positions, MRM09 spread expansion, and option watching [6] Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract up 0.41 (2.54%) to 16.54 cents/pound [7] - **Information**: Forecasts for Brazilian sugar production are down year - on - year. Import costs and profits are provided, and domestic sugar prices are adjusted [8] - **Logic**: International sugar is weak, and domestic sugar follows the international trend [9] - **Strategy**: Zheng sugar oscillates, spread watching, and using out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11] Oils - **External Market**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [13] - **Information**: Forecasts for global soybean and EU rapeseed production. Domestic oil trading volume increased [14][15] - **Logic**: Palm oil is in production - inventory increase, and domestic oils have different supply - demand situations [16] - **Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, spread and option watching [17][18][19] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures stabilized [21] - **Information**: Corn inventory and trading volume data in domestic ports, and processing data [23] - **Logic**: US corn has limited downside, and domestic corn has a complex supply - demand situation [25] - **Strategy**: Long on 09 corn, spread operation, and using call - writing strategy for those with spot [26][27] Hogs - **Information**: Hog, piglet, and sow prices are provided, and relevant agricultural product price indices are given [30] - **Logic**: Hog prices are supported but expected to be volatile [30] - **Strategy**: Short - side thinking, LH91 positive spread, and option watching [31] Peanuts - **Information**: Peanut and peanut product prices, and inventory data are provided [33][34] - **Logic**: Peanuts may be short - term strong but face long - term downward pressure [35] - **Strategy**: Short on 10 peanuts at high points, spread watching, and selling pk510 - C - 8800 options [36][38] Eggs - **Information**: Egg prices, production, and sales data are provided [40] - **Logic**: Different egg contracts have different trends [42] - **Strategy**: Long on the 9 - month contract, spread watching, and selling put options [43] Apples - **Information**: Apple inventory, import - export, and price data are provided [45] - **Logic**: Apples are expected to be short - term oscillatory [47] - **Strategy**: Low - buying and high - selling on AP10, spread watching, and selling put options [48] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market**: ICE US cotton rose [49] - **Information**: China's cotton inventory data and spot trading information are provided [50] - **Logic**: US cotton may be short - term weak but has potential positives, and Zheng cotton has limited upward space [51][52] - **Strategy**: Oscillation for US cotton, short - term slightly strong but limited upward space for Zheng cotton, spread watching, and selling put options [53]