证券研究报告：固定收益报告 生产热度整体回落，原油有色价格回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20250823 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度整体回落，高炉、沥青、 PTA 开工率均下降，螺纹钢产量下降，轮胎开工率回升。第二，房地 产市场边际走弱，商品房成交面积下降，土地供应面积有所回升。第 三，物价走势分化，原油、有色价格上涨，焦煤、螺纹钢下跌，农产 品价格延续季节性上行趋势。第四，航运指数持续下行，SCFI、CCFI 及 BDI 均下降。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市 场恢复情况及国际地缘政治变动影响。 生产：高炉、螺纹钢、沥青、PTA 热度均下降，轮胎开工 率回升 发布时间：2025-08-25 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产热度回升，原油金属价格下降 ——高频数据跟踪 20250818》 - 2025.08.19 固收周报 8 月 22 日当周，焦炉产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent draft of the Price Law Amendment emphasizes the importance of a scientific pricing mechanism for public utilities to ensure stable revenue and efficient resource allocation [1][3]. Group 1: Current Issues in Public Utility Pricing - Public utility prices, such as water and public transport, are often kept at low levels, failing to reflect resource scarcity and sometimes not covering costs, which affects service quality and sustainability [2][3]. - Reliance on government subsidies for public utility operations obscures issues like cost control and efficiency, leading to a lack of motivation for companies to improve service quality [2][3]. - The widespread implementation of tiered pricing systems has not effectively promoted resource conservation, as high coverage in the first tier diminishes the intended impact of these mechanisms [2][3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - There is a need to streamline public utility pricing and centralize some pricing management authority to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [3][4]. - Establishing a clear boundary between government and market subsidies, along with a dynamic adjustment mechanism for prices and subsidies, is essential for maintaining affordability of basic public services [4]. - Enhancing transparency in pricing policies and involving stakeholders in the pricing process can improve public trust and the effectiveness of pricing strategies [4].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - The travel market is heating up during the summer, with domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500 per day, a 13.08% increase month-on-month and a 2.28% increase year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 571,000 units in the first two weeks of July, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, but a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 83.35% as of July 20, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.94 percentage points to 72.93%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 6.58 percentage points to 32.4%, indicating significant growth in real estate infrastructure[2] Price Performance - As of July 18, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables fell by 0.09%[2] - The PPI showed a decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.44% and 1.05%, respectively[3] Fiscal and Investment - This week saw the issuance of special government bonds increase significantly, with 123 billion yuan in new special bonds and 1,315 billion yuan in new special bonds (excluding debt relief) issued, marking a notable acceleration in issuance[3] - The cement shipment rate has rebounded, indicating an increase in construction activity, particularly in water conservancy and public facilities projects[3] Overseas Macro - The U.S. inflation rate for June was 2.7% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.9%, indicating manageable inflation levels despite tariff impacts[4] - The U.S. "GENIUS Act" and other cryptocurrency-related bills have passed the House, supporting the development of private sector digital currencies and reinforcing the dollar's position[3]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing is preparing for a surge in tourist traffic during the summer, focusing on enhancing transportation services to improve visitor experience through a "transportation + tourism" integration strategy [1] Group 1: Transportation Services - Beijing's transportation department has launched 39 dedicated tourist bus lines connecting over 50 popular attractions, including the Forbidden City and the Great Wall, to provide direct travel services [2] - The "Great Axis" sightseeing bus line features a new vintage-style tram operating both day and night tours, allowing visitors to immerse themselves in the city's cultural heritage [2] - Special bus lines in urban districts connect major attractions, with services running during peak holiday periods at a low fare of 3 yuan [2] Group 2: Suburban and Eco-Tourism - Suburban bus lines have been introduced for eco-tourism, including a direct route to the Beijing Wildlife Park, operating on a reservation basis during holidays [3] - The Badaling Great Wall offers two direct bus routes with a ticket price of 50 yuan for a one-way trip, requiring advance booking [3] Group 3: Upgraded Rail Services - The Beijing subway anticipates an average daily ridership of 8 million, with peak days potentially reaching 9.52 million, and is enhancing capacity and service quality [4] - The subway system continues to implement a "strong cold/weak cold" carriage model to improve passenger comfort, with temperature differences of about 2 degrees Celsius [4] - Facilities such as shared storage lockers and multi-language translation services are being improved to enhance the experience for international visitors [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Transportation Expansion - The transportation department is strengthening suburban travel services and collaborating with attractions to create a "transportation + cultural tourism" consumption loop [5] - The Badaling Great Wall has increased return capacity on peak days, while the Gubei Water Town has introduced multiple transport options and expanded parking facilities [5] - Special events like free transportation for exam candidates and themed festivals at Gubei Water Town are being organized to attract families and enhance visitor engagement [5]

Core Insights - The "Shenzhen State-owned Enterprises New Media Information Release Observation List" was launched to evaluate the information dissemination of state-owned enterprises and listed companies in Shenzhen, focusing on reading volume as a key indicator of influence [1] - The May 2025 report shows a slight decline in reading volume for state-owned enterprise accounts, while overall activity remains stable [2][4] - The top three accounts by article volume are Shenzhen Bus Group (90), Special Development Group (72), and Shenzhen Eastern Bus (67) [2][3] Group 1: Article Volume and Performance - The total number of articles published by state-owned enterprise accounts increased in May compared to April, with Shenzhen Bus Group leading with 90 articles [2][3] - The reading volume for the top three accounts includes Shenzhen Metro (42.2W+), Shenzhen Eastern Bus (17.2W+), and Shenzhen Gas (11.4W+) [5][6] - Special Development Group saw a significant increase in article volume, nearly doubling its output [2] Group 2: Engagement Metrics - The top three accounts by likes are Shenzhen Metro (2492), Shenzhen Bus Group (2112), and Shenzhen Eastern Bus (650) [7] - In terms of recommendations, Shenzhen Bus Group leads with 1407, followed by Shenzhen Metro (1020) and Shenzhen Eastern Bus (411) [9] - Despite lower article output, Guoxin Securities maintains a strong reading volume, indicating high content appeal [4][5] Group 3: Content Strategy and User Engagement - Shenzhen Metro's content strategy focuses on timely information, event-driven campaigns, and user-centric topics, achieving high engagement during key holidays [10][11] - Shenzhen Eastern Bus employs a modular content approach, emphasizing heartwarming stories and internal communications, but lacks strong user interaction [15] - Shenzhen Gas focuses on providing evergreen content related to gas safety and services, resulting in high repeat engagement [18] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Shenzhen State-owned Enterprises listed companies show a notable increase in article output, with Deep Special Power and Special Development Information leading the way [21] - The overall performance of state-owned enterprise accounts indicates a competitive landscape, with top accounts maintaining strong positions in terms of content dissemination and user engagement [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly economic index rebounded. The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index of WEI decreased, while the demand sub - index and the supply - demand gap increased [1]. - Production declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate dropped slightly, while the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased [1]. - High - frequency infrastructure indicators declined. The cement shipping rate and cement mill operating rate decreased, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased [1]. - The decline in commercial housing sales narrowed. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved, but the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased [2]. - Consumption rebounded. The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars increased significantly, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also increased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers decreased [2]. - Exports rebounded. South Korea's export year - on - year in early June increased, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also improved [2]. - Pork prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork decreased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased [3]. - Industrial product prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index and Brent crude oil spot price increased slightly, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price, and cement price index decreased [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the WEI demand sub - index was 5.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the supply - demand gap was 1.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 6.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.0%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was - 2.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 41.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 39.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The asphalt plant operating rate was 31.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 4.7%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 10.2%, down 11.5 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars was 19.0%, up 13.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 21.2%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 2.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early June was 5.4%, up 5.3 percentage points from late May. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 35.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 18.3%, up 7.0 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was - 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 9.6%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 3.6%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 11.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Brent crude oil spot price was - 16.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price was - 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price was - 30.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 1.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous value [3].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial struggles of subway systems in China, highlighting the need for fare increases and cost-cutting measures due to rising operational costs and insufficient passenger volume [4][12][25]. Group 1: Fare Increases and Cost Management - Cities like Kunming and Chongqing are considering fare increases to alleviate financial pressures, following the trend set by other cities since 2014 [5][9]. - In contrast, Foshan is adopting a more cautious approach by reducing operational hours and increasing intervals during off-peak times to save costs [7][15]. - The average operational cost per passenger in Chongqing is reported at 15.13 yuan, while the average fare collected is only about 2.2 yuan, indicating a significant shortfall [17]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Subway Systems - Over the past 20 years, many subway systems in China have maintained low fare levels, leading to continuous financial losses, with only 2 out of 28 cities reporting profits without government subsidies [8][9]. - The financial reports for 2024 indicate that Chongqing's operational subsidy requirement is 4.29 billion yuan, while Kunming's is 2.29 billion yuan, reflecting the heavy reliance on government support [19][21]. - The debt levels of subway companies are alarming, with Chongqing's debt at 83.4 billion yuan and Kunming's exceeding 100 billion yuan, accumulated from years of expansion [21][22]. Group 3: Passenger Volume and Efficiency - Despite the extensive subway networks, many cities struggle with low passenger utilization rates, with only 18 out of 41 cities meeting the minimum passenger intensity standard of 0.7 passengers per kilometer [38][43]. - The article emphasizes that the actual passenger volume is often lower than expected, leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation and financial performance [27][45]. - Comparatively, cities like Shenzhen have higher passenger intensity, achieving 1.49 passengers per kilometer, while others like Kunming and Foshan fall below the threshold [38][39]. Group 4: Urban Planning and Development - The article argues that the issues faced by subway systems are rooted in urban planning and the misalignment of infrastructure development with actual passenger needs [12][49]. - Many subway stations are located in areas with low population density, leading to underutilization and financial losses [53][56]. - The planning process often overestimates future passenger demand, resulting in unnecessary construction and increased debt burdens for local governments [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising costs of living in various cities, particularly focusing on public transportation fare increases and utility price hikes, indicating a shift in economic dynamics where traditional funding mechanisms are no longer sustainable [4][7][14]. Group 1: Public Transportation Pricing - Cities like Chongqing, Kunming, and Guangzhou are initiating fare increases for public transportation, signaling a broader trend across urban areas [2][3]. - The financial strain on public transportation systems is evident, with Chongqing's metro receiving a subsidy of 4.35 billion yuan and Beijing 24.85 billion yuan, yet still facing deficits [7]. - The previous model of "land financing" for metro systems is failing as real estate sales decline, forcing cities to rely on fare increases for operational sustainability [8][9]. Group 2: Cost of Living and Inflation - The article highlights that while housing prices have decreased, the cost of living is rising, leading to a perception of financial strain among households [4][5]. - The adjustment of utility prices is linked to government fiscal pressures, as subsidies diminish when land sales decline [14][15]. - The government is signaling a need to address low prices in essential services to prevent deflationary pressures, which could undermine market confidence [16]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Rising prices in essential services like transportation and utilities are expected to impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential increases of 0.2-0.4 percentage points for CPI and 0.5-1 percentage points for PPI if utility prices rise by 4%-8% [17]. - The article suggests that the current inflation is not widespread but concentrated in unavoidable expenses, leading to a mismatch between stagnant income growth and rising living costs [19][20]. - The focus of asset allocation is shifting from high returns to stable cash flow assets, as households seek to manage cash flow amidst rising living costs [24][29].

Core Viewpoint - Recent discussions in multiple cities regarding subway fare increases highlight the financial pressures faced by public transportation systems, with many cities considering fare adjustments to cover rising operational costs [1][15][16]. Fare Adjustments - Chongqing is set to hold a public hearing on May 29 to discuss fare adjustments, potentially raising the starting fare from 2 yuan to 3 yuan, making it the third city in China to implement a 3 yuan starting fare [1][2]. - Kunming has already reduced the distance that can be traveled for the same fare, while Foshan has adjusted its operational strategy without changing fares, aiming to reduce costs [1][2]. Public Sentiment - Public opinion largely opposes fare increases, as many view subways as essential public services that should remain affordable [1][15][17]. Financial Pressures - Subway companies heavily rely on government subsidies due to low fare structures, which have become increasingly unsustainable amid local fiscal pressures and a declining real estate market [1][9][11]. - In 2024, 18 out of 29 subway companies reported revenue increases, but only 13 saw net profit growth, indicating a mixed financial landscape [9][10]. Revenue and Profitability - Guangzhou Metro has become the highest-grossing subway company in China with revenues of 231 billion yuan in 2024, while Shenzhen Metro reported a significant loss of 334.6 billion yuan due to real estate investments [10][11]. - The profitability of subway companies is closely tied to government subsidies, with Beijing Infrastructure Investment receiving 248.5 billion yuan in subsidies in 2024, the highest among peers [13][14]. Cost Structure - In Chongqing, ticket revenue covers only 14.54% of operational costs, highlighting the financial strain on subway systems [16]. - The average cost of a subway trip in Chongqing is estimated at 27.5 yuan, significantly higher than the current fare [16]. Alternative Revenue Streams - Experts suggest that subway companies should explore alternative revenue sources such as advertising and commercial operations within stations to enhance financial sustainability [18][19]. - The decline in real estate-related income necessitates a shift towards optimizing operational efficiency and exploring new revenue avenues [18][20]. Operational Efficiency - Improving management efficiency and controlling operational costs are critical for subway companies to maintain financial health, especially in light of potential fare increases [19][20].