深夜，我坐在书桌前，朋友白天在市级政府部门吐的苦水还在耳边萦绕。他愁眉不展地告诉我，最近上面对地方债务问题抓得特别严，领导们天天开会，气 氛紧张得像拉满的弓弦。他疑惑地问我："你说这是怎么了？怎么突然这么较真了？" 他的问题像一颗石子，投进我平静的思绪湖面，激起一圈圈涟漪，引我开始深入思考：什么是地方隐性债务？它如何产生？国家又将如何整治？ 许多人或许对"地方隐性债务"这个概念感到陌生。简单来说，它指的是地方政府未通过正规、透明渠道产生的债务。那么，何谓"不透明"的融资方式呢？ 想象一下，一座城市亟需修建一条重要的交通干道，但政府预算资金不足。按照规范流程，应该发行债券或向上级申请拨款。然而，有些地方政府却另辟蹊 径：他们可能先让施工企业垫付建设费用，承诺日后慢慢偿还；或者，他们会设立各种各样的融资平台，以平台的名义借钱。这些游离于阳光之外的债务， 便构成了所谓的"隐性债务"。 这些债务又是如何产生的呢？原因不外乎一个字——"钱"。在地方经济快速发展的过程中，大量基础设施建设必不可少，修路、建学校、盖医院，处处都需 要真金白银。然而，并非所有地方都有充足的预算资金，正规渠道的审批流程又相对漫长且限制颇多。于是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax incentives, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][48]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [6][47]. - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in November showed improved expenditure but pressured income, with broad fiscal expenditure down 1.7% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.5 percentage points compared to October [2][7]. - Broad fiscal revenue fell by 5.2% year-on-year in November, further declining by 4.6 percentage points from October [2][50]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Fiscal Performance - The divergence in fiscal revenue is partly due to base disturbances and the ongoing drag of land finance, with November 2024 broad fiscal revenue showing a recovery of 11% year-on-year, creating high base pressure [8][48]. - The income growth rate weakened, further constraining overall financial expansion space, while the low performance of land finance persisted [2][8]. Group 3: Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan limit on local special bonds and the implementation of financial tools became significant supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November, with government fund expenditure turning positive [10][49]. - Despite the ongoing drag from land finance and short-term pressure on income, the fiscal expenditure growth rate is expected to continue recovering due to the support from the local debt limit [10][49]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, the focus of fiscal revenue may emphasize maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies [13][48]. - The expenditure side will prioritize addressing local fiscal difficulties and urging local governments to actively manage debts, targeting both the stock of hidden debts and the flow issues of local financial resources [13][48].

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax collection, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][3][18] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while the expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [5] - In November, the broad fiscal expenditure showed a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.5 percentage points compared to October, while the broad fiscal revenue fell by 5.2%, further declining by 4.6 percentage points from October [2][6] Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure is partly due to base disturbances and the ongoing drag from land finance [11][19] - The government fund revenue in November saw a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, although the decline was narrowed by 2.6 percentage points compared to October [24][29] - The general fiscal expenditure budget completion rate in November was 8%, lower than the five-year average of 8.4% [38] Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan local special bond limit and the implementation of financial tools have become important supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November [15][49] - The government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, significantly improving from a negative growth in October [38][49] Future Fiscal Strategy - The fiscal revenue strategy for 2026 may focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and addressing local fiscal difficulties while encouraging local governments to actively manage debts [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax collection, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][48] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [1][6] - In November, the broad fiscal expenditure showed a significant improvement with a year-on-year decline of -1.7%, narrowing the drop by 17.5 percentage points compared to October, while fiscal revenue fell by -5.2%, a further decline of 4.6 percentage points [2][7][50] Group 2: Factors Influencing Fiscal Performance - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure is partly due to base disturbances in the revenue side and the ongoing drag from land finance [2][8] - The broad fiscal revenue in November 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of -5.2%, with government fund revenue down by -15.8% and general fiscal revenue at -0.02% [4][14] Group 3: Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan limit on local special bonds and the implementation of financial tools have become important supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November [3][10] - The government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, significantly improving from a negative position in October, attributed to the 5,000 billion yuan local special bond limit [39][50] Group 4: Future Fiscal Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, the fiscal revenue focus may include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, standardizing tax incentives, addressing local fiscal difficulties, and urging local governments to actively manage debts [13][49] - The central economic work conference indicates that the revenue side will emphasize maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies [2][48]

部分城投公司不规范融资，谁在承担最后风险？ 半月谈记者 短线投资即可获益，收益率超8%，暗示有地方政府"背书"……半月谈记者在基层调查发现，一些地方 城投公司向外省市开放融资，吸引了不少个人投资者。随着监管持续加码、融资渠道收紧，部分城投国 企"剑走偏锋"，其不规范操作已出现逾期兑付，甚至诱发隐性债务风险新变种。受访专家提醒，新情况 看似是城投公司融资多元化，实则容易将风险向更多个体转嫁。 个人投资者加码，销售暗藏风险 "全家一辈子攒的钱都投进去了，老人看病、孩子上学都急需用钱""投资时借的钱不知道怎么还"……今 年4月，东部省份多位投资者反映，受城投公司国资背景以及高利率吸引，他们购买了一些城投公司发 售的定向融资产品，投资金额从几十万元到数百万元不等，有些人押上毕生积蓄、养老钱，甚至借款投 资。 多位知情人士透露，部分城投公司为扩大融资，借助外省承销公司在长三角多地跨区域销售定融产品。 来自外省的城投定融产品因收益率畸高很快大量销售，此前均正常兑付，直到2024年部分产品开始出现 利息逾期兑付情况，焦虑情绪逐渐在投资者群体中蔓延。 此前，城投公司发售的定融产品的购买主体通常为机构或企业。然而，近年来部分城 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investigation reveals that some local investment companies are engaging in non-standard financing practices, which may lead to the transfer of risks to individual investors despite appearing to diversify risks [1] Group 1: Investment Practices - Local investment companies are attracting individual investors by offering high returns exceeding 8%, often implying government backing [1][2] - Many investors have invested their life savings or borrowed money to purchase these investment products, drawn by the promise of high returns [2] - The investment products are marketed with high returns and short investment periods, which contradicts the typical long-term nature of public infrastructure investments [3] Group 2: Risk Factors - The high yield and short duration of these investment products raise concerns about their sustainability and the underlying projects' profitability [3] - Some investment companies are using mutual guarantees among local state-owned platforms to alleviate investor concerns, which may not reflect the actual risk [3] - The involvement of small intermediaries in promoting these products can lead to misrepresentation of risks and exaggerated returns [3] Group 3: Regulatory Issues - The non-standard financing practices are partly due to regulatory blind spots in cross-regional supervision and inadequate risk disclosure by issuers [4] - There is a lack of awareness among investors regarding the risks associated with these products, leading to poor investment decisions [5] - The regulatory framework allows for the continuation of these practices until risks reach a certain threshold, which can lead to local protectionism complaints from issuers [4] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - Experts suggest enhancing risk management capabilities and establishing a long-term government debt management mechanism to prevent systemic risks [6] - There is a call for comprehensive reforms in the fiscal and performance evaluation systems to improve debt repayment capabilities [6][7] - Financial literacy programs are recommended to improve public understanding of investment risks and to ensure that investment companies adhere to strict compliance standards [7]

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes that under pressure on the revenue side, the government may rely more on debt issuance this year, as tax revenue has decreased by 2.1% year-on-year and land sales revenue has dropped by 11.4% [2][11] - It suggests that the fiscal policy will likely require incremental debt to maintain its strength throughout the year, especially if there is no significant improvement in revenue [2][6] Group 1: Debt Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The government has accelerated debt issuance since the beginning of the year, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan compared to last year [5][12] - As of May 20, the known net financing of government debt reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year [5][12] - The article indicates that if the revenue side does not improve significantly, the government may need to increase its debt issuance to maintain fiscal strength [6][13] Group 2: Non-Deficit Debt and Investment Focus - In the second quarter, non-deficit debt is expected to accelerate, reflecting a marginal shift in fiscal support towards investment [8][22] - As of May 20, the net financing of non-deficit debt reached 2 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 36.5%, indicating a focus on investment projects [22][23] - The article highlights that the acceleration of non-deficit debt issuance may signal increased fiscal support for infrastructure and other investment projects [23][28] Group 3: Special Refinancing Bonds and Local Government Debt - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has progressed rapidly, with a known progress rate of 77.8% as of May 20, indicating a focus on managing local government debt [28][29] - The article notes that local government hidden debts remain under strict control, with the central government expected to play a key role in increasing budgetary bonds and quasi-fiscal capital injections [29][31] - The emphasis is placed on the central government's commitment to not increasing hidden debts, reinforcing fiscal discipline [29][31] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - In April, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with tax revenue turning positive, particularly in the equipment manufacturing and technology sectors [31][33] - The article mentions that the expenditure progress for January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a notable increase in infrastructure spending in April [44][50] - The government’s focus on accelerating special bond issuance and enhancing fiscal support for projects is expected to continue, with a projected increase in government fund income [50][56]

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In April, general fiscal revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 1.7% in March[2] - General fiscal expenditure rose by 12.9% year-on-year in April, up from 10.1% in March[2] - From January to April, tax revenue decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, while land sales revenue fell by 11.4%[3] Group 2: Debt Issuance Insights - The government bond issuance has accelerated, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan from last year[3] - As of May 20, net financing reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year[3] - The cumulative net financing of government bonds has increased by 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, exceeding the expected annual increase of 2.2 trillion yuan[4] Group 3: Investment and Spending Trends - Non-deficit bonds are catching up in issuance, indicating a shift towards investment support in fiscal policy[7] - Infrastructure spending showed a significant increase in April, with urban community spending rising by 6.8% and transportation spending by 10.6%[8] - The progress of fiscal spending from January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a completion rate of 31.5% of the budget[54] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - Tax revenue growth turned positive in April at 1.9%, while non-tax revenue hit a new low for 2024[34] - The growth in government fund income was driven by a recovery in land sales revenue, which increased by 4.3% in April[64] - The expenditure growth rate for government funds surged to 44.7% in April, significantly up from 27.9% in March[64]