1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals experienced a significant pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 4.71%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 6.03%, the main contract of platinum closed down 11.79%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 11.87%. The short - term risk - aversion factors related to trade wars and geopolitical risks have eased in the short term but still exist in the medium and long term. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation support the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2] - **Price data**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $5410.80 per ounce, down $37.00 (-0.68%) from the previous day and up $472.40 (9.57%) from the previous week. The London gold price was $5405.00 per ounce, up $98.05 (1.85%) from the previous day and up $572.95 (11.86%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1161.42 yuan per gram, down 87.70 yuan (-7.02%) from the previous day and up 45.78 yuan (4.10%) from the previous week [2] - **Position and inventory data**: The position of Comex gold was 528,004 lots, an increase of 549 lots (0.10%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 187,290 lots, a decrease of 24,530 lots (-11.58%) from the previous day and a decrease of 19,290 lots (-9.34%) from the previous week. The LBMA gold inventory was 9,106 tons, an increase of 200 tons (2.24%) from the previous week [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit [4] - **Price data**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $115.79 per ounce, down $0.84 (-0.72%) from the previous day and up $19.57 (20.34%) from the previous week. The London silver price was $118.45 per ounce, up $5.66 (5.01%) from the previous day and up $25.07 (26.85%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 27,941 yuan per kilogram, down 2,950 yuan (-9.55%) from the previous day and up 2,976 yuan (11.92%) from the previous week [4] - **Position and inventory data**: The position of Comex silver was 152,020 lots, unchanged from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,912,390 lots, a decrease of 305,880 lots (-7.25%) from the previous day and a decrease of 832,845 lots (-17.55%) from the previous week. The LBMA silver inventory was 27,818 tons, an increase of 631 tons (2.32%) from the previous week [4] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with good position management and stop - loss/take - profit [6] - **Price data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2627.10 per ounce, up $148.30 (5.98%) from the previous day and up $211.30 (8.75%) from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2507.00 per ounce, up $5.00 (0.20%) from the previous day and up $121.00 (5.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the GQEX was 685.90 yuan per gram, up 52.05 yuan (8.21%) from the previous day and up 75.85 yuan (12.43%) from the previous week [7] - **Position and inventory data**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 66,423 lots, a decrease of 341 lots (-0.51%) from the previous day and an increase of 399 lots (0.26%) from the previous week. The NYMEX platinum inventory was 21 tons, a decrease of 0 tons (-1.46%) from the previous day and an increase of 1 ton (4.94%) from the previous week [7] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can sell high and buy low with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit [8] - **Price data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1945.50 per ounce, up $71.00 (3.79%) from the previous day and up $80.00 (4.29%) from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1850.00 per ounce, up $44.00 (2.35%) from the previous day and up $44.00 (2.44%) from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the GQEX was 497.95 yuan per gram, up 14.20 yuan (2.94%) from the previous day and up 28.60 yuan (6.09%) from the previous week [9] - **Position and inventory data**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 17,998 lots, a decrease of 40 lots (-0.22%) from the previous day and a decrease of 395 lots (-2.15%) from the previous week. The NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (2.54%) from the previous week [9] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate was 3.75%, also a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve were $6,638.091 billion, an increase of $5.371 billion (0.00%) [10] - **Inflation in the US**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, unchanged; the month - on - month CPI was 0.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points. The year - on - year core CPI was 2.60%, unchanged; the month - on - month core CPI was 0.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points [10] - **US economic growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP was 2.40%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points; the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP was 4.40%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points. The unemployment rate was 4.40%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points [10] - **US labor market**: The monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 50,000, a decrease of 6,000. The labor participation rate was 62.10%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points. The average hourly wage growth rate was 3.80%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points [10] - **US real estate market**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, a decrease of 2.00 points (-5.13%). Existing home sales were 4.35 million units, an increase of 240,000 units (5.84%); new home sales were 570,000 units, unchanged; new home starts were 1.061 million units, unchanged [10] - **US consumption**: The year - on - year retail sales were 3.09%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points; the month - on - month retail sales were - 0.10%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.40% year - on - year, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; and increased by 0.51% month - on - month, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [10][12] - **US industry**: The year - on - year industrial production index was 1.99%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points; the month - on - month industrial production index was 0.37%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate was 76.26%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [12] - **US trade**: The year - on - year export was - 30.01%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points; the month - on - month export was 1.14%, an increase of 4.38 percentage points. The year - on - year import was - 28.69%, a decrease of 9.61 percentage points; the month - on - month import was 8.71%, an increase of 9.72 percentage points. The trade balance was - $56.8 billion, a decrease of $27.6 billion (-94.57%) [12] - **US economic surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 47.90, a decrease of 0.30 points; the ISM services PMI index was 54.40, an increase of 1.80 points. The Michigan consumer confidence index was 56.40, an increase of 5.40 points [12] - **Central bank gold reserves**: China's gold reserves were 2,306.32 tons, an increase of 1.87 tons (0.08%); the US gold reserves were 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's gold reserves were 36,362.76 tons, unchanged [12] - **IMF foreign exchange reserve ratio**: The US dollar accounted for 56.32%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points (-2.53%); the euro accounted for 21.13%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points (5.61%); the RMB accounted for 2.12%, a decrease of 0.00 percentage points (-0.03%) [12] - **Gold/foreign exchange reserves**: China's ratio was 8.34%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points (4.06%); the US ratio was 81.98%, an increase of 0.88 percentage points (1.08%) [12] - **Risk - aversion attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 67.15, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 83.42 points (-55.41%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 16.88, an increase of 0.53 points (3.24%) from the previous day and an increase of 1.24 points (7.93%) from the previous week [12] - **Commodity attributes**: The CRB commodity index was 323.71, an increase of 4.81 points (1.51%) from the previous day and an increase of 11.47 points (3.67%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9445, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 0.0156 points (-0.22%) from the previous week [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at each meeting date from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided. For example, at the meeting on March 18, 2026, the probability of the interest rate in the range of 325 - 350 was 15.4%, and the probability of 350 - 375 was 84.6% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation is affected by rising risks of trade wars and geopolitical changes, along with a weakening US job market and moderate inflation, which support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the US aircraft carrier strike group is gathering in the Middle East, and Iran has threatened a full - scale war in case of any attack. Trump plans to raise tariffs on some South Korean goods, increasing trade war and geopolitical risks. - Regarding the monetary attribute, US core capital goods orders in November increased for the fifth consecutive month, boosting the economic outlook. The December CPI increase met expectations, but household food and rent expenses rose. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences, hinting at a possible single rate cut next year. The market expects a 95% probability of no rate cut in January 2026, with the next possible cut in June. The US dollar index and US bond yields are oscillating strongly. - For the commodity attribute, the Polish central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply. Platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate upward in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in a step - like manner in the long term [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: Comex gold active contract closed at $5004.80 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day and 8.77% from last week. London gold closed at $5090.80 per ounce, up 2.92% from the previous day and 9.08% from last week. Shanghai gold futures closed at 1148.38 yuan per gram, up 0.44% from the previous day and 8.32% from last week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions were 528,004 lots, up 8.17% from last week. Shanghai gold futures positions were 217,484 lots, up 0.77% from the previous day and 16.95% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 9106 tons, up 2.24% from last week [2]. 2. Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Price Data**: Comex silver active contract closed at $103.89 per ounce, up 0.61% from the previous day and 15.50% from last week. London silver closed at $109.61 per ounce, up 10.71% from the previous day and 17.85% from last week. Shanghai silver futures closed at 28,300 yuan per kilogram, up 4.02% from the previous day and 22.71% from last week [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver positions were 152,020 lots, up 0.33% from last week. Shanghai silver futures positions were 4,653,150 lots, down 3.83% from the previous day and 1.43% from last week. The total visible inventory was 41,819 tons, down 0.09% from the previous day and 1.13% from last week [4]. 3. Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Price Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2627.10 per ounce, up 5.98% from the previous day and 8.75% from last week. London platinum closed at $2507.00 per ounce, up 0.20% from the previous day and 5.07% from last week. Platinum futures on the GQEX closed at 685.90 yuan per gram, up 8.21% from the previous day and 12.43% from last week [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX platinum positions were 66,423 lots, down 0.51% from the previous day and up 0.26% from last week. NYMEX platinum inventory was 21 tons, down 1.46% from the previous day and up 4.94% from last week [7]. 4. Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy low and sell high. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - **Price Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1945.50 per ounce, up 3.79% from the previous day and 4.29% from last week. London palladium closed at $1850.00 per ounce, up 2.35% from the previous day and 2.44% from last week. Palladium futures on the GQEX closed at 497.95 yuan per gram, up 2.94% from the previous day and 6.09% from last week [10]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX palladium positions were 17,998 lots, down 0.22% from the previous day and 2.15% from last week. NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, up 2.54% from last week [10]. 5. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attribute**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate is 3.65%. The Fed's total assets are $66354.43 billion. M2 growth rate is 4.27%. The 10 - year US real bond yield is 2.46%, the US dollar index is 97.04, and the US bond spreads and interest rate differentials show certain changes [11][13]. - **US Economic Indicators**: Unemployment rate is 4.40%, non - farm payrolls changed by 50,000, labor participation rate is 62.10%, average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80%. In the real estate market, existing home sales are 4.35 million units, new home sales are 0.57 million units, and new home starts are 1.061 million units. Retail sales, personal consumption, industrial production, and trade data also show specific changes [13]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves are 2306.32 tons, the US's are 8133.46 tons, and the world's total is 36362.76 tons. The proportion of US dollars in IMF foreign exchange reserves is 56.32%, the euro is 21.13%, and the RMB is 2.12% [13]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 67.15, down 34.97% from the previous day and 62.69% from last week. The VIX index is 16.15, up 0.37% from the previous day and down 14.28% from last week. The CRB commodity index is 315.11, up 0.92% from the previous day and 2.86% from last week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9516 [13]. 6. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different meetings from January 2026 to December 2027 are presented in the CME FedWatch tool, showing the probabilities of different interest rate ranges at each meeting [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high-level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.21%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 3.07%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 0.68% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, leading to a slowdown in interest - rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed cut the interest rate with internal differences, hinting at a pause in action and possibly only one rate cut next year. The current market expects the probability of no rate cut in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible rate cut may be in April [1] - Precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and to rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4258.30 per ounce, up 0.51% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week. London gold was at $4200.15 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 957.90 yuan per gram, up 0.16% from the previous day and 0.47% from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 459,997 lots (100 ounces per lot), Shanghai Gold's main contract position decreased by 0.25% from the previous day and 2.76% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons with no change, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week [2] - **Investment Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $62.20 per ounce, up 1.70% from the previous day and 5.55% from last week. London silver was at $61.04 per ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 4.57% from last week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 14,488 yuan per kilogram, up 0.80% from the previous day and 7.93% from last week [6] - **Position and Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory increased by 10.60% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.07% from last week, and Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 19.34% from last week [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, all decreased by 0.25% compared to before. The Fed's total assets are $6586.185 billion, down $164.12 billion from before [8] - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 3.00%, the month - on - month CPI is 0.30%, the year - on - year core CPI is 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI is 0.30% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.00%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 3.80% [10] - **Employment Data**: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, and the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 123.60, down 22.89% from before; the VIX index is 15.77, down 6.85% from the previous day and 1.93% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 301.38, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.84% from last week [11] 4. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the 350 - 375 range in January 2026 is 77.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges changes over different meeting dates from 2026 to 2027 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - For investors, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.90%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.16%. International and domestic gold prices showed varying degrees of increase, such as the Comex gold main contract closing price rising 0.99% from the previous day and 3.41% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, stagflation risks in the US economy, and strong employment and inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, the prospect of the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, and the EU is considering using the "nuclear option" to counter the US. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden next week [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US economic data has weakened, the start of single - family homes has dropped to the lowest level in 11 months, and building permits have also decreased significantly. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions have increased, while some inventories have decreased, such as the Comex gold inventory decreasing by 1.08% compared to last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing changes in positions of different members [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International and domestic silver prices also showed certain trends. For example, the Comex silver main contract closing price rose 1.07% from the previous day and 4.41% from last week [5]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: The price of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver and some domestic silver positions have changed, and the visible inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Silver Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions of different members [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [7]. - **US Economic Data**: Various economic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, and trade have shown different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield has decreased, and the GDP annualized growth rate has decreased [9]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world remain stable. The proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed, and the gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio has increased. Geopolitical risk and VIX indices have decreased, and the CRB commodity index has shown a slight change [10]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates in the future is presented, showing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate adjustment [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic is that the short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Price Performance - International prices: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3355.50 per ounce, up $10.10 (0.30%) from the previous day and down $14.80 (-0.44%) from the previous week. London gold is $3355.10 per ounce, up $36.60 (1.10%) from the previous day and up $3.00 (0.09%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 781.70 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan (0.60%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.04%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 777.00 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan (0.47%) from the previous day and down 0.46 yuan (-0.06%) from the previous week. [2] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex gold position is 448,531 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 10,869 lots (2.48%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 211,239 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 8,952 lots (4.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 20,156 lots (10.55%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD is 205,042 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 590 lots (0.29%) from the previous day and a decrease of 9,956 lots (-4.63%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged. Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, a decrease of 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 18 tons, an increase of 0 tons (1.57%) from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (1.32%) from the previous week. [2] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 110,442 lots, an increase of 2,896 lots (25.71%); the top 10 total 139,355 lots, an increase of 2,304 lots (32.44%); the top 20 total 167,690 lots, an increase of 4,891 lots (39.04%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 14,565 lots, an increase of 494 lots (3.39%); the top 10 total 20,464 lots, an increase of 560 lots (4.76%); the top 20 total 24,576 lots, an increase of 599 lots (5.72%). [3] Silver Price Performance - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closing price is $38.43 per ounce, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.65 (-1.66%) from the previous week. London silver is $38.27 per ounce, up $0.52 (1.36%) from the previous day and up $0.77 (2.05%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 9,271.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.00 yuan (-0.02%) from the previous day and up 64.00 yuan (0.70%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 9,226.00 yuan per kilogram, up 15.00 yuan (0.16%) from the previous day and up 54.00 yuan (0.59%) from the previous week. [6] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex silver position is 171,474 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), an increase of 8,671 lots (5.33%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 7,013,010 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 182,130 lots (-2.53%) from the previous day and an increase of 291,585 lots (4.34%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD is 3,370,304 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 37,116 lots (-1.09%) from the previous day and an increase of 127,300 lots (3.93%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 23,791 tons, an increase of 424 tons (1.81%) from the previous week. Comex silver inventory is 15,464 tons, an increase of 17 tons (0.00%) from the previous day and an increase of 72 tons (0.47%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Silver Exchange is 1,204 tons, a decrease of 20 tons (-1.59%) from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 41,793 tons, a decrease of 75 tons (-0.18%) from the previous day and a decrease of 20 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week. [6] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 127,796 lots, an increase of 1,152 lots (12.80%); the top 10 total 176,685 lots, an increase of 3,499 lots (17.70%); the top 20 total 235,618 lots, an increase of 2,698 lots (23.60%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 72,195 lots, a decrease of 890 lots (7.23%); the top 10 total 94,674 lots, an increase of 7 lots (9.48%); the top 20 total 118,304 lots, an increase of 462 lots (11.85%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attributes - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve are 6710.669 billion US dollars, a decrease of 25.67 billion US dollars (-0.00%). M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.50%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. [8] Other Key Indicators - 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points (-0.77%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.01 percentage points (-0.38%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 98.47, a decrease of 0.17 points (-0.17%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.61 points (0.62%) from the previous week. The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.52, an increase of 0.02 points (4.00%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. [8] Inflation, Economic Growth, and Labor Market - US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index have shown certain changes. US economic growth indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm employment have also changed. The labor market indicators such as labor participation rate, average hourly wage growth rate, and weekly working hours have different trends. [10] Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data - Central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have different situations. The proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves globally, in China, and in the US has also changed. [11] Risk and Market Indicators - The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, an increase of 24.41 points (22.50%) from the previous day and a decrease of 59.95 points (-31.09%) from the previous week. The VIX index is 16.83, an increase of 0.42 points (2.56%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.37 points (-2.15%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 304.79, a decrease of 1.33 points (-0.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 2.09 points (0.69%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1812, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0.0074 points (0.10%) from the previous week. [11] Fed Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025/7/30 to 2026/12/9 is provided. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No data provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remaining. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.07%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, there are risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Hedging Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, and the EU has threatened to take counter - measures against US tariffs. Trump said he does not plan to fire Powell, which has alleviated market concerns. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US inflation in June remained resilient, but the year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. Currently, the market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [4] - **Capital and Inventory**: In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 67132.36 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.61, the US dollar index is 98.32, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.53, etc. [7] - **Hedging Attribute Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, and the VIX index is 17.14. [10] - **Commodity Attribute Data**: The CRB commodity index is 303.15, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1842. [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided in the table, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different times. [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.20%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.35% [1]. - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still exist. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. The EU threatened counter - measures, and Trump said he was open to negotiations [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [5]. - **Funding and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced positions again. Recently, the visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67,132.36 billion US dollars. M2 increased by 4.50% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Currency - related Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63, the US dollar index is 98.63, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.47, the US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.92, and the US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 3.34 [8][10]. - **Inflation Data**: The US CPI increased by 2.70% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 2.90% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: The US GDP increased by 1.90% year - on - year (annualized) and decreased by 0.50% quarter - on - quarter (annualized), the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 14.70 million [10]. - **Labor Market Data**: The labor participation rate is 62.60%, the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.70%, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 22.70 million [10]. - **Real Estate Market Data**: The NAHB housing market index is 32.00, existing home sales are 403.00 million units, new home sales are 56.00 million units, and new home starts are 115.20 million units [10]. - **Consumption Data**: Retail sales increased by 4.71% year - on - year and decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.55% year - on - year and decreased by 0.14% month - on - month [10]. - **Industrial Data**: The industrial production index increased by 0.60% year - on - year and decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.43% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,298.55 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,250.15 tons. The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounts for 19.83%, and the RMB accounts for 2.18% [10][11]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, the VIX index is 17.52, the CRB commodity index is 302.70, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1738 [11]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.49% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.22% [1] - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.49%, and the main contract of London Gold decreased by 0.50%. The main contract of Comex gold increased by 0.31% [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, US stagflation risk, and strong employment suppressing interest rate cuts [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's new tariff measures on 14 countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, 50% on copper, and up to 200% on drugs [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's meeting minutes show low support for a July interest rate cut, and strong employment rules out the possibility of a near - term rate cut. The market expects the next rate cut in September, with the total rate cut space in 2025 falling back to around 50 basis points [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63%, and the main contract of London Silver decreased by 1.74%. The main contract of Comex silver decreased by 0.27% [6] - **Core Logic**: Gold price is the anchor for silver price, with reduced capital positions and slightly increased visible inventory [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is - 0.50%, and the unemployment rate is 4.10% [10] - **Other Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57%, the US dollar index is 97.55, and the geopolitical risk index is 132.88 [8][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for future interest rate changes [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, silver strong, high - level volatility in the medium term, and a stepped upward trend in the long term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and for aggressive investors to buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] - The price of silver is expected to show a short - term weakening trend, and the strategy is the same as that for gold [3][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Gold - Today, gold is weak and silver is strong. The Shanghai gold main contract closed down 1%, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed down 0.2% [3] - The core logic is that in the short term, the risk of hedging has eased in the new stage of the trade war, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest - rate cuts [3] - In terms of hedging attributes, Trump wrote to 14 countries notifying new tariffs, and close allies Japan and South Korea are subject to a 25% tariff [3] - In terms of monetary attributes, the Fed paper shows that there is still a possibility that interest rates will fall to near - zero levels. Strong overall US employment growth has ruled out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. In June, non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than the estimated 110,000, but nearly half of the non - farm employment growth came from the government sector, and the increase in private - sector jobs was the smallest in eight months. The market currently expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points [3] - In terms of commodity attributes, the investment demand for gold offsets the decline in jewelry demand, while the expected industrial demand for silver is under pressure [3] 3.2 Silver - Gold price trends anchor silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETFs have reduced positions again. In terms of inventory, the short - term visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [7][8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.50%, discount rate: 4.50%, reserve balance rate: 4.40%, total Fed assets: $6,710.364 billion, M2 year - on - year: 4.50% [10] - Ten - year US Treasury real yield: 2.59%, US dollar index: 97.51, US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year): 0.52, US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year): 0, US - EU Treasury yield spread (10 - year): 1.85, US - China Treasury yield spread (10 - year): 3.29 [10][13] - CPI year - on - year: 2.40%, CPI month - on - month: 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year: 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month: 0.20% [13] - US GDP annualized year - on - year: 1.90%, unemployment rate: 4.10%, non - farm payrolls monthly change: 147,000, labor participation rate: 62.60%, average hourly wage growth rate: 3.70% [13] - US labor market weekly working hours: 34.20 hours, ADP employment: - 33,000, initial jobless claims: 233,000, job vacancies: 7.604 million, Challenger corporate layoffs: 48,000 [13] - NAHB housing market index: 32.00, existing home sales: 4.03 million units, new home sales: 560,000 units, new home starts: 1.152 million units [13] - Retail sales year - on - year: 4.71%, retail sales month - on - month: - 0.22%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year: 4.55%, personal consumption expenditure month - on - month: - 0.14% [13] - US exports year - on - year: - 34.52%, exports month - on - month: - 12.73%, imports year - on - year: - 18.13%, imports month - on - month: - 13.99%, trade balance: - $71.5 billion [13] - ISM manufacturing PMI: 49.00, ISM services PMI: 50.80, Markit manufacturing PMI: 0.00, Markit services PMI: 0.00 [13] - Central bank gold reserves: China 2,298.55 tons, US 8,133.46 tons, world total 36,250.15 tons [14] - Global gold/reserves: 22.18%, China gold/reserves: 6.78%, US gold/reserves: 78.64% [14] - Geopolitical risk index: 132.88, up 126.93% from the previous day and 23.60% from last week [14] 4. Trading Strategies - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors are advised to buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium - term and a step - up movement in the long - term. The price trend of gold serves as an anchor for the price of silver. [1][5] - For both gold and silver, the recommended strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is advised to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, the precious metals market showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 0.03%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed up 0.62%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump - era trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: A phone call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to focus on rare earths and export controls in Sino - US trade talks. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows that in May, US public anxiety about the future inflation path eased. The one - year inflation expectation of respondents was 3.2% (down from 3.6% in April). The US added 139,000 non - farm payrolls in May, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and gold ETFs are presented, showing different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.70 per ounce, up $15.70 (0.47%) from the previous day and down $59.70 (-1.75%) from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Influencing Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly. [5] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and silver ETFs are provided. For instance, the Comex silver main contract closed at $36.91 per ounce, up $0.77 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.65%) from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) are all 4.50%, 4.50%, and 4.40% respectively, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6723.632 billion, down $514 million (-0.00%) from the previous day. [8] - **Other Economic Indicators**: Include M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation indicators (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (GDP), unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and central bank gold reserves. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, down 0.10 percentage points; the GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.90 percentage points. [9][10][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from June 2025 to December 2026 is presented. For example, at the June 18, 2025 meeting, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 425 - 450 range is 99.9%. [13]