1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold rose 1.46%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver rose 3.41%, the main contract of platinum rose 0.16%, and the main contract of palladium rose 0.89% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the risk of safe - haven, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain deadlocked; the US employment is strong, inflationary pressure persists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump issued a new warning; Iran said the US peace proposal was "unrealistic". The Houthi armed forces "joined the war", more US troops arrived in the Middle East, the risk of the Iran war expanding increased, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell said that the Fed could "wait and see" how the war affects inflation and there was no need to take action for the time being. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged this month, stating that the Iran war made the policy outlook highly uncertain, expecting inflation to rise, the unemployment rate to remain stable, and to cut interest rates once this year. The probability of interest rate hikes reversed, and the bet on interest rate cuts was postponed to 2027. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields were under pressure at high levels [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4540.40 per ounce, up 0.42% from the previous day and 2.95% from the previous week. The London gold price was $4529.15 per ounce, up 0.56% from the previous day and 1.41% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day and 4.11% from the previous week. The closing price of the Gold T + D was 1015.68 yuan per gram, up 0.67% from the previous day and 3.85% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex gold was 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 180,433 lots, down 0.29% from the previous day but up 12.83% from the previous week. The position of Gold TD was 45,964 lots, down 2.40% from the previous day and 2.91% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% from the previous week. The Comex gold inventory was 1,000 tons, down 1.58% from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons, up 1.82% from the previous day and 1.35% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Gold futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotai Junan, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Yunchang Futures [3]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $70.18 per ounce, up 0.59% from the previous day and 1.24% from the previous week. The London silver price was $70.75 per ounce, up 4.36% from the previous day and 5.24% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18,126 yuan per kilogram, up 2.37% from the previous day and 6.09% from the previous week. The closing price of the Silver T + D was 18,031 yuan per kilogram, up 2.68% from the previous day and 5.04% from the previous week [4]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex silver was 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,615,825 lots, up 3.07% from the previous day and 13.90% from the previous week. The position of Silver TD was 2,818,488 lots, down 0.76% from the previous day and 3.21% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 27,065 tons, down 2.39% from the previous week. The Comex silver inventory was 10,188 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. The Shanghai Silver inventory was 369 tons, up 0.75% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 37,916 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Silver futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotou Futures, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Chezheng Futures [5]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2,113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day but down 3.47% from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2,118.00 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day but down 0.66% from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day but down 1.75% from the previous week. The closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day but down 1.82% from the previous week [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and 5.91% from the previous week. The total NYMEX platinum inventory was 19 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1,620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day but down 5.37% from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1,601.00 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and 2.97% from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day but down 3.73% from the previous week [8]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and 0.53% from the previous week. The total NYMEX palladium inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and 19.79% from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, the discount rate was 3.75%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) was 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets were $6,708.36 billion. M2 increased by 4.88% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield was 2.64%, the US dollar index was 100.51, and the US Treasury yield spreads and interest rate differentials between the US and other countries showed certain changes [9]. - **US Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.40%, the month - on - month CPI was 0.50%, the year - on - year core CPI was 2.50%, the month - on - month core CPI was 0.40%, the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.83%, the year - on - year core PCE price index was 3.06%, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.80%, and the five - year inflation expectation was 3.20% [9]. - **US Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.10%, the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 0.70%, the unemployment rate was 4.40%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was - 92,000, the labor participation rate was 61.90%, the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.80%, and other labor market and economic indicators showed corresponding changes [9]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 4.09 million units, new home sales were 480,000 units, and new home starts were 1.043 million units [9]. - **US Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales increased by 2.08% year - on - year and 0.03% month - on - month, personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.25% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month, the personal savings rate was 4.50%, the industrial production index increased by 1.44% year - on - year and 0.15% month - on - month, and other consumption and industrial indicators showed corresponding changes [11]. - **US Trade**: Exports increased by 9.68% year - on - year but decreased by 17.23% month - on - month, imports decreased by 26.33% year - on - year but increased by 2.30% month - on - month, and the trade deficit was - $54.5 billion [11]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the ISM services PMI index was 56.10, the Markit manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the Markit services PMI index was 51.10, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 53.30, the small business optimism index was 98.80, and the US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves were 2,308.50 tons, the US's were 8,133.46 tons, and the world's total was 36,458.24 tons [11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar accounted for 56.32% of foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounted for 21.13%, and the RMB accounted for 2.12% [11]. - **Gold to Foreign Exchange Reserves Ratio**: China's ratio was 8.34%, and the US's was 81.98% [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 181.40, the VIX index was 30.61, the CRB commodity index was 371.29, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9215 [11]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from April 29, 2026, to December 8, 2027, is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate decisions [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals generally declined. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 8.62%, Shanghai Silver closed down 11.67%, Platinum closed down 11.38%, and Palladium closed down 12.42%. [1] - In the short - term, regarding the hedging aspect, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East may become normalized. The U.S. employment is strong, inflation pressure still exists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level. [1] - Regarding the hedging attribute, the air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may become long - term. [1] - Regarding the monetary attribute, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged this month, stating that the Iran war has made the policy outlook highly uncertain. It is expected that inflation will rise, the unemployment rate will remain stable, and there will be one interest rate cut this year. Fed Chairman Powell said that this policy path faces extremely high uncertainty as policymakers are evaluating the impact of the U.S. - Israel war on Iran. Traders have postponed their bets on interest rate cuts to 2027. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - Regarding the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium still has resilience, but it faces structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market in the long term. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate weakly in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - Price data: International prices such as Comex Gold active contract and London Gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D all showed declines compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex Gold active contract closed at $4492.00 per ounce, down $159.90 (-3.44%) from the previous day and $531.10 (-10.57%) from the previous week. [2] - Position and inventory data: Comex Gold positions increased slightly, while Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased significantly. Inventory data showed different trends, with LBMA inventory increasing slightly and Comex Gold inventory decreasing. [2] - Net position ranking: The top 10 futures companies' net long and short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions compared to the previous period. [3] Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [4] - Price data: International prices of Comex Silver and London Silver, and domestic prices of Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D had different trends. For example, the Comex Silver active contract closed at $67.81 per ounce, down $5.00 (-6.87%) from the previous day and $12.84 (-15.92%) from the previous week. [4] - Position and inventory data: Comex Silver positions decreased slightly, while Shanghai Silver main contract positions increased. Inventory data showed a decline in some inventories and an increase in others. [4] - Net position ranking: The top 10 futures companies' net long and short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are shown, with changes in positions compared to the previous period. [5] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - Price data: International prices of NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum, and domestic prices of Platinum main contract and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange all increased compared to the previous day but decreased compared to the previous week. [7] - Position and inventory data: NYMEX Platinum positions decreased, and the inventory remained unchanged. [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [8] - Price data: International prices of NYMEX Palladium and London Palladium had different trends. The NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up $59.50 (3.81%) from the previous day but down $92.00 (-5.37%) from the previous week. [8] - Position and inventory data: NYMEX Palladium positions increased, and the inventory increased significantly. [8] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve indicators: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. [9] - Key economic indicators: The 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield, U.S. dollar index, and various interest rate spreads changed. Inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE, and core PCE showed different trends. U.S. economic growth indicators like GDP, unemployment rate, and employment data also had corresponding changes. [9] - Other data: Data on the U.S. real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, as well as central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and geopolitical and market risk - related indices. [9][11] Federal Reserve Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Federal Reserve's interest rate levels at different meeting dates from April 2026 to December 2027 is presented, showing the market's expectations of interest rate changes. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion situation shows that trade - war risks have eased while geopolitical risks have increased. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have caused a global chain reaction, affecting shipping, aviation, and the oil industry, threatening global energy costs and business activities in the Gulf region [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, US producer prices accelerated in January, and the Fed's January meeting minutes showed a large divergence among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, with the possibility of interest - rate hikes being mentioned for the first time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest - rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly [1]. - Regarding the commodity attribute, the Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; platinum has strong expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry; palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that in the short term, gold will be strong while silver, platinum, and palladium will be weak. In the medium term, they will oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, the bullish trend remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are suggested. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]. - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex gold active contract: $5296.40/ounce, up 1.82% from the previous day and 3.24% from last week; London gold: $5222.30/ounce, up 1.06% from the previous day and 3.35% from last week). Domestic prices (Shanghai gold main contract: 1197.22 yuan/gram, up 4.30% from the previous day and 7.85% from last week; gold T + D: 1142.48 yuan/gram, up 3.07% from last week) [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold position is 420182 lots, up 3.90% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract position is 154545 lots, up 2.93% from the previous day and 0.92% from last week; gold T + D position is 45964 lots, down 4.56% from last week. LBMA inventory is 9158 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1048 tons, down 1.48% from last week; Shanghai gold inventory is 105 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can engage in high - selling and low - buying with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit [5]. - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex silver active contract: $94.39/ounce, up 6.21% from the previous day and 11.61% from last week; London silver: $89.98/ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 11.76% from last week). Domestic prices (Shanghai silver main contract: 24431 yuan/kg, up 6.13% from the previous day and 23.50% from last week; silver T + D: 22369 yuan/kg, up 16.08% from last week) [5]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver position is 125454 lots, down 4.59% from last week; Shanghai silver main contract position is 2562195 lots, down 0.21% from the previous day and 5.74% from last week; silver T + D position is 2988126 lots, down 2.99% from last week. LBMA inventory is 27729 tons, down 0.32% from last week; Comex silver inventory is 11206 tons, down 1.62% from last week; Shanghai silver inventory is 307 tons, down 13.28% from last week [5]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can high - sell and low - buy with position management and stop - loss/take - profit [7]. - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX platinum active contract: $2178.60/ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and 7.74% from last week; London platinum: $2138.00/ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week). Domestic prices (Platinum main contract in GZEX: 551.85 yuan/gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and 1.25% from last week; platinum in SGE: 545.09 yuan/gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and 0.20% from last week) [8]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract position is 51840 lots, down 1.43% from the previous day and 0.93% from last week. NYMEX platinum total inventory is 19 tons, down 0.89% [8]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: Similar to other precious metals, conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can high - sell and low - buy with position management and stop - loss/take - profit [10]. - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX palladium active contract: $1809.50/ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and 5.85% from last week; London palladium: $1727.00/ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and 3.91% from last week). Domestic price (Palladium main contract in GZEX: 438.45 yuan/gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week) [10]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract position is 4266 lots, down 24.12% from the previous day and 57.68% from last week. NYMEX palladium total inventory is 6 tons, down 0.32% [10]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **US Economic Indicators**: Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25%; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25%; reserve balance interest rate is 3.65%, down 0.25%. GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.50%, up 0.10%. Unemployment rate is 4.30%, down 0.10% [11][13]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, down 0.30%; core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, down 0.10%; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, up 0.08%; core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, up 0.17% [11]. - **Other Indicators**: Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.35%, down 0.04%; US dollar index is 97.64, down 0.09%; geopolitical risk index is 76.86, unchanged; VIX index is 19.86, up 6.60%; CRB commodity index is 312.67, up 0.85% [13]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate range in different meeting dates from March 2026 to December 2027 are presented in a table, showing the probability distribution of different interest - rate ranges [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market showed a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations on the day. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed flat, Shanghai Silver rose 0.47%, Platinum rose 2%, and Palladium fell 2.27%. The short - term core logic is that while the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment is strong and inflation pressure remains, with low expectations of interest - rate cuts. [1] - Trump's 10% global tariff has come into effect, and the White House plans to raise it to 15%. China will adjust counter - measures as appropriate. The US - Iran conflict risk still exists. [1] - The Fed's January meeting minutes showed great differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, with discussions on the possibility of interest - rate hikes mentioned for the first time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest - rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations in the short term, high - level fluctuations in the medium term, and a long - term bullish trend. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex Gold and London Gold) increased, while domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads also had different changes. [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex Gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased, while Gold T + D positions increased slightly. Inventory changes were relatively small. [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [3] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [5] - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex Silver and London Silver) increased significantly, while domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) decreased. The basis and spreads changed greatly. [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Positions in Comex Silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D all decreased. Inventory also decreased. [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [6] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management. [7] - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum) had different trends, and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange) increased. The basis and spreads changed. [8] - **Position and Inventory**: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. [8] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had different changes. [9] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [10] - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX Palladium and London Palladium) increased, and the domestic price (Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange) also increased. The basis and spreads changed. [10] - **Position and Inventory**: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The Federal Reserve's relevant interest rates decreased, and the total assets decreased slightly. Key economic indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index had different changes. [11][13] - **US Economic Data**: GDP, unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data all showed different trends. [13] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased slightly, and the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves changed. [13] - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index decreased, and the CRB commodity index increased slightly. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly. [13] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [15]

1. Report on Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.04%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 4.57%, the main contract of platinum closed up 7.03%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 4.50% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the safe - haven aspect, the risk of the trade war has eased, but the risk of geopolitical fluctuations still exists. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's 10% global tariff has officially taken effect, and the White House plans to further raise it to 15%. China has clearly stated that it will adjust counter - measures as appropriate. At the same time, China and the US are maintaining communication about Trump's visit to China. The White House said that Trump prefers diplomatic means for Iran but is willing to use deadly force if necessary, and the risk of conflicts between the US and Iran still exists [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates. In addition to the pro - interest - rate - cut group and the wait - and - see group, the minutes for the first time clearly mentioned the discussion of the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects the Fed to complete an interest rate cut this year, and the next cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are volatile and slightly upward [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is volatile and slightly downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly upward in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract is $5160.50 per ounce, down $87.40 (-1.67%) from the previous day and up $264.40 (5.40%) from the previous week. The London gold price is $5120.25 per ounce, down $71.15 (-1.37%) from the previous day and up $258.80 (5.32%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1151.06 yuan per gram, up 0.56 yuan (0.05%) from the previous day and up 29.84 yuan (2.66%) from the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of Comex gold is 407,078 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 2,616 lots (-0.64%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 155,075 lots (1 kilogram per lot), down 2,336 lots (-1.48%) from the previous day and down 1,835 lots (-1.17%) from the previous week. The LBMA gold inventory is 9,158 tons, unchanged from the previous day and week [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract is $87.07 per ounce, down $0.93 (-1.06%) from the previous day and up $13.52 (18.38%) from the previous week. The London silver price is $88.11 per ounce, up $1.17 (1.34%) from the previous day and up $13.46 (18.03%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 23,029 yuan per kilogram, up 702 yuan (3.14%) from the previous day and up 2,745 yuan (13.53%) from the previous week [5]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of Comex silver is 131,496 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), down 2,145 lots (-1.61%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 2,740,005 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 113,550 lots (4.32%) from the previous day and down 504,420 lots (-15.55%) from the previous week. The LBMA silver inventory is 27,729 tons, down 89 tons (-0.32%) from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract is $2178.60 per ounce, up $12.90 (0.60%) from the previous day and up $156.50 (7.74%) from the previous week. The London platinum price is $2138.00 per ounce, down $7.00 (-0.33%) from the previous day and up $143.00 (7.17%) from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 551.85 yuan per gram, up 28.05 yuan (5.36%) from the previous day and up 6.80 yuan (1.25%) from the previous week [8]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract is 51,840 lots (50 ounces per lot), down 754 lots (-1.43%) from the previous day and down 1,408 lots (-0.92%) from the previous week. The NYMEX platinum total inventory is 19 tons, down 0 tons (-0.89%) from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract is $1809.50 per ounce, up $38.00 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $100.00 (5.85%) from the previous week. The London palladium price is $1727.00 per ounce, up $65.00 (3.71%) from the previous day and up $65.00 (3.91%) from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 438.45 yuan per gram, up 21.65 yuan (5.19%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.07%) from the previous week [10]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract is 4,266 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 1,356 lots (-24.12%) from the previous day and down 5,814 lots (-57.68%) from the previous week. The NYMEX palladium total inventory is 6 tons, down 0 tons (-0.32%) from the previous week [10]. 3.5 Key Data of Precious Metals Fundamentals - **Monetary Attribute**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value. The discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6,664.37 billion, down $9.037 billion (-0.00%) from the previous value [11]. - **US Economic Data**: The GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.50%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous value. The unemployment rate is 4.30%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous value. The monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 130,000, up 8,200 from the previous value [13]. - **Inflation Data**: The CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, down 0.30 percentage points from the previous value. The CPI (month - on - month) is 0.40%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous value. The core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.50%, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous value [11]. - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 76.86, down 59.11 (-43.47%) from the previous value. The VIX index is 19.55, down 1.46 (-6.95%) from the previous value. The CRB commodity index is 309.80, down 0.34 (-0.11%) from the previous value [13]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided in the table, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate decisions at different times [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term safe - haven risk has increased due to geopolitical events such as the situation between the US and Iran. The new Fed chairman is expected to be hawkish, the US employment is weak, inflation pressure still exists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is coming to an end [1]. - The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, leading to an increase in regional tension, which enhances the safe - haven attribute of precious metals [1]. - The Fed's Daly pointed out the vulnerability of the labor market, indicating there is still room for interest rate cuts. The new Fed nominee has triggered hawkish expectations, but his appointment is still uncertain. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June [1]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Attention should be paid to the risk of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - Precious metals are expected to be in a wide - range and weak oscillation in the short term, build a bottom in the medium term, and maintain a long - term bullish trend [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management should be done well, and stop - loss and take - profit should be strictly set [2]. - **Price Data**: International prices of Comex gold and London gold have increased. Domestic prices of Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D have different trends. The basis and price ratios also show various changes. For example, the Comex gold active contract closed at $5084.20 per ounce, up 1.92% from the previous day and 8.62% from the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold futures, and gold T + D have decreased to varying degrees. The inventories of LBMA, Comex gold, and Shanghai gold futures have different changes. For instance, the position of Comex gold decreased by 22.41% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of futures companies in Shanghai gold futures are listed, showing the changes in their positions [3]. 2. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [4]. - **Price Data**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver have increased, while domestic prices of Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D have decreased. The basis and price differences also show significant changes. For example, the Comex silver active contract closed at $83.05 per ounce, up 7.13% from the previous day and 4.78% from the previous week [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver futures, and silver T + D have changed. The inventories of LBMA, Comex silver, Shanghai silver futures, and silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have also changed. The total visible inventory decreased by 1.51% compared to the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of futures companies in Shanghai silver futures are presented, along with the changes in their positions [5]. 3. Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [6]. - **Price Data**: International prices of NYMEX platinum and London platinum have different trends. Domestic prices of platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have increased. The basis and price differences have also changed significantly. For example, the NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2097.40 per ounce, up 6.41% from the previous day but down 3.71% from the previous week [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract has decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX platinum has also decreased. The net position of asset management institutions has decreased [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of futures companies in platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are listed, showing the changes in their positions [8]. 4. Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [9]. - **Price Data**: The international price of the NYMEX palladium active contract has increased, while the London palladium price has decreased. The domestic price of palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has increased. The basis has changed significantly. For example, the NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1712.00 per ounce, up 4.33% from the previous day and 0.65% from the previous week [9]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract has decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium has also decreased. The net position of asset management institutions is negative [9]. 5. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have increased slightly [10]. - **US Economic Data**: Data on inflation, economic growth, the labor market, the real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, showing the current economic situation in the United States [10][12]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the United States, and the world are presented, as well as the proportion of different currencies in the IMF's foreign exchange reserves and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves in different countries [12]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index has decreased, the VIX index has increased slightly, the CRB commodity index has increased slightly, and the offshore RMB exchange rate has changed slightly [12]. 6. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals oscillated and rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 3.88%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 8.90%, the main contract of platinum closed up 10.58%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 7.59% [1] - In the short - term, geopolitical risks have increased, the new Fed chairman is expected to be hawkish, the US employment is weak and inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is still far off [1] - Japan's high - market early - rate ruling coalition won an absolute majority of seats, and tax reform and military expansion may be on the way, leading to an increase in regional tensions [1] - Fed's Daly pointed out that the labor market is vulnerable and there is still room for interest rate cuts. The US added 22,000 ADP jobs in January, lower than the market expectation of 48,000. Trump nominated former Fed governor Warsh to replace Powell, triggering hawkish expectations. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, and the next cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined under pressure [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Attention should be paid to the risk of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index oscillated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate widely and be generally strong in the short term, oscillate and build a bottom in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4,988.60 per ounce, up 3.97% from the previous day; London gold was at $4,948.00 per ounce, up 2.08%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1,125.94 yuan per gram, up 3.29%; gold T + D closed at 1,118.84 yuan per gram, up 2.51% [2] - Other data: Comex gold positions decreased by 22.41% compared with the previous week; Shanghai gold main contract positions decreased by 11.01%; gold TD positions increased by 4.23%. LBMA gold inventory increased by 0.57%, Comex gold inventory decreased by 0.72%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 0.99% [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $77.53 per ounce, up 10.20% from the previous day; London silver was at $74.94 per ounce, down 4.79%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 20,873 yuan per kilogram, up 11.03%; silver T + D closed at 19,503 yuan per kilogram, up 7.18% [4] - Other data: Comex silver positions decreased by 8.59% compared with the previous week; Shanghai silver main contract positions decreased by 11.94%; silver TD positions increased by 0.97%. LBMA silver inventory increased by 2.00%, Comex silver inventory decreased by 2.80%, and Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 31.14% [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2,097.40 per ounce, up 6.41% from the previous day; London platinum was at $2,054.00 per ounce, up 1.48%. Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 545.05 yuan per gram, up 7.72%; platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 543.99 yuan per gram, up 3.03% [7] - Other data: NYMEX platinum active contract positions decreased by 5.53% compared with the previous week; NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 1.33% [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8] - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1,712.00 per ounce, up 4.33% from the previous day; London palladium was at $1,693.00 per ounce, down 7.56%. Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 438.15 yuan per gram, up 6.74% [9] - Other data: NYMEX palladium active contract positions decreased by 14.87% compared with the previous week; NYMEX palladium inventory decreased by 14.80% [9] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are $6,656.947 billion [10] - US economic data: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.40%, annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 4.40%, the unemployment rate is 4.40%, and other data are also provided [10][12] - Central bank gold reserves: China's gold reserves are 2,307.57 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,458.24 tons [12] - IMF foreign exchange reserve ratio: The US dollar accounts for 56.32%, the euro accounts for 21.13%, and the RMB accounts for 2.12% [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at each meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided [15]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has returned to the $5000 per ounce mark, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] - UBS strategists suggest that the recent pullback in gold prices may inject healthy momentum into the market from a long-term perspective [1] - Citic Securities believes that precious metals will benefit from the continued resonance of monetary attributes and risk aversion sentiment [1] Group 2 - The International Gold Group has projected a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.4 to 1.5 billion HKD for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 143% to 161% [1] - The expected profit increase is primarily attributed to the rise in sales volume and prices of gold products [1] - As of the latest update, the International Gold Group's stock has risen over 8%, with a current price of 15.58 HKD and a trading volume of 353 million HKD [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals oscillated and rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 7.29%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 11.22%, the main contract of platinum closed up 6.73%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 6.29%. The short - term safe - haven risk has increased due to geopolitical fluctuations. The new Fed Chairman is expected to be hawkish, the US employment is weak, inflation pressure still exists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is nearing the end. Tensions in the Middle East have further escalated, and the nomination of a new Fed official has triggered hawkish expectations. The US PPI in December had the largest month - on - month increase in five months, indicating potential inflation acceleration. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rebounded from lows. Regarding the commodity attribute, there is a risk of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and maintaining a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4970.50 per ounce, up 6.19% from the previous day and down 4.04% from the previous week. The London gold price was $4920.95 per ounce, up 4.37% from the previous day and down 2.83% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1141.70 yuan per gram, up 4.38% from the previous day and down 3.75% from the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of Comex gold was 488,463 lots, down 7.39% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 178,544 lots, down 0.42% from the previous day and 19.75% from the previous week. The LBMA gold inventory was 9106 tons, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $84.92 per ounce, up 7.13% from the previous day and down 24.42% from the previous week. The London silver price was $87.49 per ounce, up 6.73% from the previous day and down 21.58% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 23,511 yuan per kilogram, up 9.63% from the previous day and down 19.54% from the previous week [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of Comex silver was 156,637 lots, up 3.04% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,558,120 lots, up 4.80% from the previous day and down 18.24% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 41,326 tons, down 0.14% from the previous day and 1.17% from the previous week [4]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2212.50 per ounce, up 4.43% from the previous day and down 16.35% from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2247.00 per ounce, up 4.76% from the previous day and down 15.21% from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 599.85 yuan per gram, up 4.69% from the previous day and down 13.67% from the previous week [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 58,472 lots, down 4.83% from the previous day and 5.22% from the previous week. The NYMEX platinum inventory was 19 tons, down 9.01% from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1745.00 per ounce, up 1.22% from the previous day and down 10.54% from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1817.00 per ounce, down 9.31% from the previous day and 8.23% from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 461.00 yuan per gram, up 2.32% from the previous day and down 8.53% from the previous week [9]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 14,843 lots, down 4.00% from the previous day and 14.29% from the previous week. The NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, down 6.95% from the previous week [9]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Policy**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6638.091 billion, up 0.00% from the previous value [10]. - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, unchanged from the previous value. The month - on - month CPI is 0.00%, down 0.30% from the previous value. The year - on - year core CPI is 2.60%, unchanged from the previous value. The month - on - month core CPI is 0.00%, down 0.30% from the previous value [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.40%, up 0.40% from the previous value. The annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 4.40%, up 0.60% from the previous value. The unemployment rate is 4.40%, down 0.10% from the previous value [10]. - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 95.55, down 55.24% from the previous value. The VIX index is 18.00, up 10.16% from the previous day and 10.09% from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 305.14, down 4.67% from the previous day and 3.92% from the previous week [12]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed's interest rate remaining in the range of 350 - 375 basis points in March 2026 is 91.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges changes over different meeting dates in 2026 - 2027 [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The short - term risk - aversion factors such as trade wars and geopolitical risks have eased in the short term but still exist in the medium and long term. The new Fed chairman's expectation is hawkish. The US employment is weakening while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has slowed down. - The geopolitical tensions around resource disputes in Greenland and North American trade tariff frictions have shown signs of easing. Trump announced a one - week cease - fire in some areas of Ukraine, and the risks of trade wars and geopolitical changes have eased in the short term. - Trump nominated former Fed governor Warsh to replace Powell, which triggered hawkish expectations. The US PPI in December had the largest monthly increase in five months, indicating potential inflation acceleration in the coming months, allowing the Fed to maintain stable interest rates for some time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels. - There are risks of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a low level in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Section Gold - **Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - **Price Data**: International prices of Comex gold active contract and London gold decreased, while domestic prices of Shanghai gold main contract and gold T + D increased. The basis and spreads showed various changes, and the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and gold - oil ratio also had different trends. - **Position and Inventory**: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold main contract, and gold T + D changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex gold, and Shanghai gold also had corresponding adjustments. The CFTC management fund net position decreased, and the gold ETF (SPDR) had a slight increase [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. - **Price Data**: International and domestic silver prices decreased. The basis and spreads of silver also changed, and the position and inventory data showed different trends. The CFTC management fund net position decreased, and the silver ETF (iShare) increased [3]. Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and stop - loss/take - profit. - **Price Data**: International and domestic platinum prices decreased significantly. The basis and spreads changed, and the position and inventory data also had corresponding adjustments. The CFTC management fund net position decreased [6]. Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. - **Price Data**: International and domestic palladium prices decreased. The basis and spreads changed, and the position and inventory data also had corresponding adjustments. The CFTC management fund net position remained unchanged [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The Federal Reserve's key interest rates decreased, and the total assets increased slightly. The M2 growth rate decreased slightly. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and various interest rate spreads changed. The US inflation data showed different trends, and the US economic growth data such as GDP had positive changes. - **Employment and Real Estate**: The US labor market data such as unemployment rate, non - farm employment, and labor participation rate changed. The real estate market data such as existing home sales increased, while the NAHB housing market index decreased. - **Consumption and Industry**: US consumption data such as retail sales and personal consumption expenditure had different trends. The industrial production index and capacity utilization rate changed, and the trade data such as exports, imports, and trade balance also had corresponding adjustments. - **Central Bank Reserves and Other Data**: The central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world remained relatively stable. The IMF foreign exchange reserve proportion of different currencies changed. The geopolitical risk index decreased, and the VIX index decreased slightly. The CRB commodity index decreased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was relatively stable [9][11]. Fed Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions [14].