Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market showed a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations on the day. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed flat, Shanghai Silver rose 0.47%, Platinum rose 2%, and Palladium fell 2.27%. The short - term core logic is that while the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment is strong and inflation pressure remains, with low expectations of interest - rate cuts. [1] - Trump's 10% global tariff has come into effect, and the White House plans to raise it to 15%. China will adjust counter - measures as appropriate. The US - Iran conflict risk still exists. [1] - The Fed's January meeting minutes showed great differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, with discussions on the possibility of interest - rate hikes mentioned for the first time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest - rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations in the short term, high - level fluctuations in the medium term, and a long - term bullish trend. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex Gold and London Gold) increased, while domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads also had different changes. [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex Gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased, while Gold T + D positions increased slightly. Inventory changes were relatively small. [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [3] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [5] - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex Silver and London Silver) increased significantly, while domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) decreased. The basis and spreads changed greatly. [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Positions in Comex Silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D all decreased. Inventory also decreased. [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [6] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management. [7] - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum) had different trends, and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange) increased. The basis and spreads changed. [8] - **Position and Inventory**: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. [8] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had different changes. [9] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [10] - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX Palladium and London Palladium) increased, and the domestic price (Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange) also increased. The basis and spreads changed. [10] - **Position and Inventory**: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The Federal Reserve's relevant interest rates decreased, and the total assets decreased slightly. Key economic indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index had different changes. [11][13] - **US Economic Data**: GDP, unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data all showed different trends. [13] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased slightly, and the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves changed. [13] - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index decreased, and the CRB commodity index increased slightly. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly. [13] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [15]

投资咨询系列报告 | | | 学名录 | | | | 学卒会 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | きを東 | 増減 | 日报(%) 名次 | 会员简称 | 净空車 | 增減 | 日比(%) | | | 前5名合计 | 76.391.00 | 3,033.00 | 25.55 | -- 前5名合计 | 10,325.00 | -7.00 | 3.45 | | -- | 前10名台计 | 105.446.00 | 4,197.00 | 35.27 | -- 前10名合计 | 11,887.00 | -193.00 | 3.98 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 133.068.00 | 4.946.00 | 44.51 | -- 前20名合计 | 12,137.00 | -169.00 | 4.06 | | | 1 国泰君安 | 22.558.00 | 959.00 | 7.55 | 1 云昌期货 | 4.082.00 | 136.00 | 1.37 | | | 2 中信期货 | 20.993.0 ...

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.48%，沪银主力收涨1.97%，铂金主力收跌0.50%，钯金主力收涨跌1.06%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，美伊等地缘异动风险上升；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近尾声。②避险属性方 面，美伊冲突升级，地区紧张局势升温。③货币属性方面，美联储戴利指出劳动力市场存在脆弱性，仍有降息空间。美国1月ADP 新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期4.8万人，前值由4.1万下修至3.7万。特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引 爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度，但上任仍存一定变数。美国12月PPI创五个月来最大环比涨幅，意味着 未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下次降息或到6月。美元 指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，中国央行连续15个月增持黄金。关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支 撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱， 人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵 ...

更新时间：2026年02月09日16时26分 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金活跃合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4988.60 | 190.50 | 3.97% | 81.10 | 1.65% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4948.00 | 100.75 | 2.08% | -33.85 | -0.68% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 1125.94 | 35.82 | 3.29% | 117.34 | 11.63% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 1118.84 | 27.35 | 2.51% | 91.72 | 8.93% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | 5.88 | -15.15 | -72% | 75.25 | -108% | | | 沪金主力基差 | 元/克 | -7.10 | -8.47 | | -25.62 | ...

万国黄金集团 中信证券认为，贵金属将受益于货币属性和避险情绪共振延续强势。值得一提的是，此前，万国黄金集 团发布公告，预期2025年度公司拥有人应占溢利约14亿至15亿元，同比增长约143%至161%。根据董事 会目前所得资料，预期溢利增加主要是由于黄金产品销售量及价格上升所致。 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 15.73 1.06 7.23% 9.54% 6.34% 3.20% 0.00% 3.20% 6.34% 9.54% 13.27 13.74 14.20 14.67 15.14 15.60 16.07 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 81万 162万 244万 万国黄金集团(03939)再涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.2%，报15.58港元，成交额3.53亿港元。 消息面上，截至2月4日，现货黄金盘中重回5000美元/盎司关口。瑞银策略分析师在研究报告中指出， 从长期视角看，此次金价回调反而为市场注入健康动能。近日，美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要 降息不止100个基点，很期待凯文.沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在 通胀尚未完全回落 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月04日15时52分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨7.29%，沪银主力收涨11.22%，铂金主力收涨6.73%，钯金主力收涨涨6.29%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，地缘异动风险短期升温；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近尾声。②避险属性方 面，美军在阿拉伯海击落伊朗无人机，美籍油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭伊朗炮艇逼近，地区紧张局势进一步升温。③货币属性方面，特 朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度。美国12月PPI创五个 月来最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完 成，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。 铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民 币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期低位震荡，长期多头趋势不变。 一、黄金 策略 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月03日16时33分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨0.63%，沪银主力收跌16.71%，铂金主力收涨3.54%，钯金主力收涨涨8.62%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期放缓 。②避险属性方面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹象。特朗普称俄对乌部分地 区停火一周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预 期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度。美国12月PPI创五个月来最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联 储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率高位承压；④ 商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧 性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月30日15时49分 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅回撤，沪金主力收跌4.71%，沪银主力收跌6.03%，铂金主力收跌11.79%，钯金主力收涨跌11.87%。①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方 面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹象。最新特朗普称俄对乌部分地区停火一 周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，沃什再度成为美联储主席热门人选。由于沃什长期以偏鹰派立场著称。美 联储1月维持利率不变，鲍威尔称通胀和就业风险均有所缓解。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业疲软与高物价加剧忧虑。 美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长，提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租支出增加。目前市场 预期美联储下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑；铂金氢能产业铂基催 化剂需求预期强劲；钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月29日15时48分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨7.88%，沪银主力收涨8.51%，铂金主力收涨1.94%，钯金主力收涨涨2.95%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，特朗普敦促伊朗重返 核谈判，否则下一次打击将更猛烈。特朗普表示，将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升。 ③货币属性方面，美联储1月维持利率不变，鲍威尔称通胀和就业风险均有所缓解。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业疲软 与高物价加剧忧虑。美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长，提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租 支出增加。目前市场预期美联储下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央行表示，已批准一 项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面 临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to record highs since 2025, driven by a combination of industrial and financial demand [1][14] - The price of silver is more volatile than gold, influenced by its stronger commodity attributes and lower market capitalization [5][8] - Historical price surges of silver have occurred in four distinct phases over the past 50 years, with the latest phase beginning in 2024 due to geopolitical risks and monetary system instability [11][12] Group 2 - Industrial demand is the core driver of silver prices, accounting for 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant growth in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [18][20] - The supply of silver is relatively inelastic, with approximately 30% coming from independent silver mines and over 70% as a byproduct of mining other metals [14][20] - The financial attributes of silver amplify price volatility, particularly during periods of high liquidity and speculative trading [22][24] Group 3 - The silver market is expected to remain supported in the medium to long term due to structural demand from emerging industries [28] - The relationship between gold and silver prices is closely correlated, with silver often experiencing a "catch-up" rally following gold price increases [30][33] - Recent regulatory changes may elevate silver's status as a strategic asset, potentially increasing its demand in various economies [28][30]