投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月07日16时30分 | | | सिर्हे के | | | | सिद्धि में | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | ま客車 | 増減 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员简称 | 浄空車 | 増減 | 단F(%) | | | 前5名合计 | 74.693.00 | -606.00 | 23.61 | -- 前5名合计 | 12,126.00 | 114.00 | 3.83 | | | 前10名合计 | 104,497.00 | -2,126.00 | 33.04 | -- 前10名合计 | 14,832.00 | 236.00 | 4.69 | | | i 前20名台计 | 133.696.00 | -1.527.00 | 42.27 | -- 前20名台计 | 16.415.00 | 384.00 | 5.19 | | | 1 中信期货 | 23.435.00 | -957.00 | 7.41 | 1 云昌期货 | 4.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high-level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.21%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 3.07%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 0.68% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, leading to a slowdown in interest - rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed cut the interest rate with internal differences, hinting at a pause in action and possibly only one rate cut next year. The current market expects the probability of no rate cut in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible rate cut may be in April [1] - Precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and to rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4258.30 per ounce, up 0.51% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week. London gold was at $4200.15 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 957.90 yuan per gram, up 0.16% from the previous day and 0.47% from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 459,997 lots (100 ounces per lot), Shanghai Gold's main contract position decreased by 0.25% from the previous day and 2.76% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons with no change, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week [2] - **Investment Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $62.20 per ounce, up 1.70% from the previous day and 5.55% from last week. London silver was at $61.04 per ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 4.57% from last week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 14,488 yuan per kilogram, up 0.80% from the previous day and 7.93% from last week [6] - **Position and Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory increased by 10.60% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.07% from last week, and Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 19.34% from last week [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, all decreased by 0.25% compared to before. The Fed's total assets are $6586.185 billion, down $164.12 billion from before [8] - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 3.00%, the month - on - month CPI is 0.30%, the year - on - year core CPI is 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI is 0.30% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.00%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 3.80% [10] - **Employment Data**: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, and the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 123.60, down 22.89% from before; the VIX index is 15.77, down 6.85% from the previous day and 1.93% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 301.38, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.84% from last week [11] 4. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the 350 - 375 range in January 2026 is 77.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges changes over different meeting dates from 2026 to 2027 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 5.44%, platinum's main contract closed up 1.08%, and palladium's main contract closed up 1.08% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war - related避险 has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US job market is weakening, inflation is moderate, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects an 80%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak and silver strong, platinum will be strong and palladium weak. In the medium - term, they will fluctuate at high levels, and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market Performance - Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Comex gold's main contract closed at $4236.60 per ounce, up 0.40% from the previous day, and London gold closed at $4198.00 per ounce, up 0.23% from the previous day [1][2] - The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) was 956.40 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day [2] Core Logic - Short - term: Trade - war - related避险 has subsided, geopolitical risks remain, US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and interest - rate - cut expectations remain [1] - 避险 attribute: There are discussions about ending the Ukraine war, and there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - Monetary attribute: The possibility of Fed rate cuts has increased, the US economic activity has changed little, and the market is waiting for more economic data [1] - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry, and palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] Silver Market Performance - Comex silver's main contract closed at $61.16 per ounce, up 4.55% from the previous day, and London silver closed at $58.63 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day [8] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) was 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, up 5.63% from the previous day [8] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attribute - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.90%, down 0.25% from the previous value [10] - The Fed's total assets were $65861.85 billion, down 0.00% from the previous value [10] - M2 (year - on - year): 4.65%, up 0.22% from the previous value; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.51, up 0.80% from the previous day, up 2.03% from the previous week [10] - US Treasury spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [12] 避险 Attribute - Geopolitical risk index: 123.60, up 14.93% from the previous day, down 27.38% from the previous week; VIX index: 16.93, up 1.62% from the previous day, up 2.05% from the previous week [13] Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index: 299.63, down 0.61% from the previous day, down 0.87% from the previous week; offshore RMB: 7.0685, up 0.10% from the previous week [13] Fed's Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate changes from December 10, 2025, to October 27, 2027, are presented [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from their lows, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.27% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 1.41%. The short - term core logic includes: the risk of trade war has eased, but geopolitical risks still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1st. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4038.30 per ounce, up 2.45% from the previous day; London gold was at $3994.15 per ounce, down 0.31%. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 921.92 yuan per gram, up 1.07%; gold T + D closed at 921.02 yuan per gram, up 1.51%. [2] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 hands; Shanghai gold's main contract positions decreased by 4.11% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.73 per ounce, up 3.08% from the previous day; London silver was at $48.18 per ounce, up 0.01%. [6] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 11,441 yuan per kilogram, up 1.67%; silver T + D closed at 11,410 yuan per kilogram, up 1.90%. [6] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 hands; Shanghai silver's main contract positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day. The total visible inventory decreased by 1.03% from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are $66,371.78 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week. [8] - **Economic indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.35, the dollar index is 99.52, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.31. [8] - **Inflation indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, and PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74%. [10] - **Employment indicators**: The unemployment rate is 4.30%, and non - farm payrolls changed by 2.20 million. [10] - **Other indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 188.52, the VIX index is 16.23, the CRB commodity index is 300.77, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0944. [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion situation shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump being optimistic and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - From the perspective of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show short - term weak oscillations, medium - term high - level oscillations, and long - term step - up trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closing down 4.20% and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closing down 3.32% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex and London) and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D) all declined. The positions of Comex gold and Shanghai gold futures decreased, while the positions of gold T + D increased. Some inventories decreased slightly [2]. Silver - **Market - related Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is necessary during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic silver prices declined. The positions of Comex silver and Shanghai silver futures decreased, while the positions of silver T + D increased. Inventories generally decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly. There were changes in inflation, economic growth, labor market, real - estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and economic - survey indicators [8][10]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 30.89% compared to the previous day and 69.51% compared to the previous week, while the VIX index decreased by 10.97% compared to the previous week [12]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous day but increased by 2.08% compared to the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Expectations**: The market has different expectations for the Fed's interest - rate levels in different periods from October 2025 to September 2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factor shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weakening employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump expressing optimism and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled a meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating weakly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising in a step - by - step manner in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 1.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed down 0.47% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic gold prices generally declined, with varying degrees of decrease in different price indicators. Some basis, spread, and ratio indicators changed significantly, and there were also changes in positions and inventories [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The report lists the top 10 net - long and net - short positions of gold futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing the changes in positions of different companies [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [5]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased, and the visible inventory of silver decreased slightly recently [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is recommended during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic silver prices showed different trends. Some basis and spread indicators changed greatly, and there were also changes in positions and inventories [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The report lists the top 10 net - long and net - short positions of silver futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing the changes in positions of different companies [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly, and M2's year - on - year growth rate decreased slightly [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There were changes in indicators such as the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and various interest - rate spreads. Inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and other aspects also had corresponding data changes [8][10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world remained stable, and there were changes in the proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in the IMF's foreign exchange reserves, as well as the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [10][12]. - **Risk and Commodity - Related Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased, the CRB commodity index decreased slightly, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectation**: The report shows the probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate range in different meetings in the future based on the CME FedWatch tool [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals tumbled and then fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 3.92%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 3.86%. The short - term safe - haven situation has changed: Sino - US may hold a meeting, easing the risk of a trade war; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. The safe - haven attribute shows that European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations, Trump said a 100% tariff on China was unsustainable, and the US Treasury Secretary expected a Sino - US meeting in Malaysia soon to prevent tariff escalation. In terms of the monetary attribute, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible halt to balance - sheet shrinkage in the coming months, Fed Governor Waller warned of possible negative employment growth, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September and signaled further cuts, the ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far below expectations, and the market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 rate cuts this year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. Regarding the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index trended down, and the RMB appreciation was negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and climb in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 3.92%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 3.86%. International and domestic gold prices generally declined, with the Comex gold main - contract closing price at $4138.50 per ounce, down $235.80 (-5.39%); the London gold at $4169.60 per ounce, down $124.75 (-2.90%); the Shanghai Gold main - contract closing price at 952.56 yuan per gram, down 41.50 yuan (-4.17%); and the gold T + D closing price at 948.84 yuan per gram, down 38.05 yuan (-3.86%) [1][2]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: Short - term safe - haven factors include Sino - US potential meetings and trade - war risk mitigation; safe - haven attributes involve geopolitical events; the monetary attribute is affected by Fed policies and employment data; the commodity attribute is related to the CRB index and RMB exchange rate [1]. - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are advised. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are necessary [2]. Silver - **Market Performance**: International and domestic silver prices declined. The Comex silver main - contract closing price was $48.16 per ounce, down $3.24 (-6.30%); the London silver was $49.95 per ounce, down $1.86 (-3.58%); the Shanghai Silver main - contract closing price was 11,404 yuan per kilogram, down 401 yuan (-3.40%); and the silver T + D closing price was 11,381 yuan per kilogram, down 378 yuan (-3.21%) [6]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. The capital side shows a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and the inventory side shows a slight decrease in visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to the gold strategy, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can engage in high - selling and low - buying. Position management and stop - loss and take - profit are essential [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 4.15%, the Fed's total assets are $66472.49 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.27, the US dollar index is 98.94, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51 [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various data such as the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year), inflation data (CPI, PCE), economic growth data (GDP), labor - market data, real - estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are provided. Central bank gold reserves for China, the US, and the world, as well as IMF foreign - exchange reserve ratios, are also included [10][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals continued their upward trend, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.84% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.93%. The short - term core logic includes increased short - term hedging demand due to trade wars and the US government shutdown, rising stagflation risks in the US economy, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, leading to the beginning of the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETFs have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Market Performance**: International gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic gold prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed increases. For example, the Comex gold主力合约收盘价 increased by 1.57% compared to the previous day and 4.05% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, factors such as trade wars, the US government shutdown, stagflation risks in the US economy, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have affected the gold market. The Fed's monetary policy signals, employment data, and market expectations of interest - rate cuts also play important roles [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. Silver - **Price and Market Performance**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) all rose. For instance, the Comex silver主力合约收盘价 increased by 4.33% compared to the previous day and 8.43% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Core Logic**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. There are slight increases in capital positions and a slight decrease in visible inventory [4]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy with proper position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets were 66416.68 billion US dollars, with a slight increase of 0.00% [8]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and various interest rate spreads showed different degrees of change. Economic indicators such as CPI, PCE, GDP, and employment also had corresponding fluctuations [8][9]. - **Other Indicators**: Geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate also had their respective changes [9]. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from October 2025 to September 2027 are provided, showing market expectations for the Fed's future interest - rate decisions [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.70%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.64% [2]. - In the short - term, due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, the risk aversion sentiment has escalated. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has begun to materialize [2]. - Trump's trade war escalation and the US government shutdown have increased market uncertainty [2]. - The labor market weakness has become the Fed's major concern in formulating policies. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. Currently, the market expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year is still about 2 [2]. - The implied lease rate of London silver has soared, indicating a tight supply of silver spot. The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and rise step - by - step in the medium - and long - term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Relevant Data**: - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $4130.00 per ounce, up $94.50 (2.34%) from the previous day and up $145.60 (3.65%) from last week; London gold closed at $4095.95 per ounce, up $121.45 (3.06%) from the previous day and up $146.50 (3.71%) from last week [3]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 11.42 yuan (1.23%) from the previous day and up 72.46 yuan (8.36%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 939.95 yuan per gram, up 13.47 yuan (1.45%) from the previous day and up 77.45 yuan (8.98%) from last week [3]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased by 1867 hands; the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 3.15 tons (- 0.33%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Relevant Data**: - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $50.78 per ounce, up $3.26 (6.86%) from the previous day and up $2.38 (4.91%) from last week; London silver closed at $51.24 per ounce, up $0.48 (0.95%) from the previous day and up $2.68 (5.51%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, up 2 yuan (0.02%) from the previous day and up 594 yuan (5.43%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,530 yuan per kilogram, up 77 yuan (0.67%) from the previous day and up 652 yuan (5.99%) from last week [6]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC management funds increased by 1937 hands; the iShare silver ETF increased by 358.49 tons (2.33%) [6]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25% [8]. - The Fed's total assets were $6641.668 billion, up $4.268 billion (0.00%) [8]. - M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year [8]. - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.07 ( - 2.93%) [8]. - The US dollar index was 99.24, up 0.41 (0.41%) from the previous day and up 0.65 (0.66%) from last week [8]. - The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.50, up 0.07 (16.28%) from the previous day and up 0.06 (12.77%) from last week [8]. Other Key Indicators - In terms of currency attributes, various inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industrial, and trade indicators have different degrees of change [10]. - In terms of risk - aversion attributes, the geopolitical risk index was 271.85, and the VIX index was 22.07, up 3.04 (15.97%) from the previous day and up 4.83 (28.02%) from last week [12]. - In terms of commodity attributes, the CRB commodity index was 295.54, up 2.78 (0.95%) from the previous day and down 5.53 ( - 1.84%) from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1348, down 0.0074 ( - 0.10%) [12]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations show different probabilities of interest rate ranges in different meeting dates from 2025 to 2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 4.82%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.22%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate strongly in the short - term and rise in steps in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risks such as trade wars and the shutdown of the US government have increased, the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to materialize. Events such as the US government shutdown and the resignation of the French Prime Minister have increased market uncertainty, and geopolitical changes in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The Fed believes that the risk in the employment market has increased and remains vigilant about inflation. The US PCE inflation data met expectations, strengthening the bet that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates later this year. The market currently expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October to remain around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ratio, position, and inventory [2]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, position, and inventory [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets decreased by 21.792 billion US dollars, with a decrease of 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) changed, and there were also changes in other key indicators such as the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year - 10 - year), US - Europe yield spread, and US - China yield spread [7][9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related data changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Economic Growth and Employment**: GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, and other data showed different trends [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: Data such as existing home sales, new home sales, and new home starts in the US real estate market changed [9]. - **Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditure, industrial production index, and other data changed [9]. - **Trade**: US export, import, and trade balance data changed [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM services PMI, and other economic survey data changed [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, as well as IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, changed [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 21.50%, the VIX index decreased by 2.04%, the CRB commodity index increased by 1.27%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed [11].