投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月26日16时14分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收平，沪银主力收涨0.47%，铂金主力收涨2%，钯金主力收涨跌2.27%。①核心逻辑，短期避险 方面，贸易战风险缓和，地缘异动风险仍存；美国就业坚挺通胀压力仍存，降息预期位于低位。②避险属性方面，特朗普推出的 10%全球关税正式生效，白宫拟进一步上调至15%，中方明确将视情调整反制措施；同时中美就特朗普访华保持沟通。白宫表示特 朗普对伊朗首选外交手段，但必要时愿动用致命武力，美伊等冲突风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储1月会议纪要显示决策层对 利率未来走向存在巨大分歧，除了支持降息派和观望派，纪要首次明确提到加息可能性讨论。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成， 下次降息或到7月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，中国央行连续15个月增持黄金。白银受到供应偏紧支撑； 铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲；钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民 币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期多头趋势不变。 | | | 策略：稳 ...

投资咨询系列报告 | | | 学名录 | | | | 学卒会 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | きを東 | 増減 | 日报(%) 名次 | 会员简称 | 净空車 | 增減 | 日比(%) | | | 前5名合计 | 76.391.00 | 3,033.00 | 25.55 | -- 前5名合计 | 10,325.00 | -7.00 | 3.45 | | -- | 前10名台计 | 105.446.00 | 4,197.00 | 35.27 | -- 前10名合计 | 11,887.00 | -193.00 | 3.98 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 133.068.00 | 4.946.00 | 44.51 | -- 前20名合计 | 12,137.00 | -169.00 | 4.06 | | | 1 国泰君安 | 22.558.00 | 959.00 | 7.55 | 1 云昌期货 | 4.082.00 | 136.00 | 1.37 | | | 2 中信期货 | 20.993.0 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.48%，沪银主力收涨1.97%，铂金主力收跌0.50%，钯金主力收涨跌1.06%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，美伊等地缘异动风险上升；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近尾声。②避险属性方 面，美伊冲突升级，地区紧张局势升温。③货币属性方面，美联储戴利指出劳动力市场存在脆弱性，仍有降息空间。美国1月ADP 新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期4.8万人，前值由4.1万下修至3.7万。特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引 爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度，但上任仍存一定变数。美国12月PPI创五个月来最大环比涨幅，意味着 未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下次降息或到6月。美元 指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，中国央行连续15个月增持黄金。关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支 撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱， 人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵 ...

更新时间：2026年02月09日16时26分 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金活跃合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4988.60 | 190.50 | 3.97% | 81.10 | 1.65% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4948.00 | 100.75 | 2.08% | -33.85 | -0.68% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 1125.94 | 35.82 | 3.29% | 117.34 | 11.63% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 1118.84 | 27.35 | 2.51% | 91.72 | 8.93% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | 5.88 | -15.15 | -72% | 75.25 | -108% | | | 沪金主力基差 | 元/克 | -7.10 | -8.47 | | -25.62 | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月04日15时52分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨7.29%，沪银主力收涨11.22%，铂金主力收涨6.73%，钯金主力收涨涨6.29%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，地缘异动风险短期升温；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近尾声。②避险属性方 面，美军在阿拉伯海击落伊朗无人机，美籍油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭伊朗炮艇逼近，地区紧张局势进一步升温。③货币属性方面，特 朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度。美国12月PPI创五个 月来最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完 成，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。 铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民 币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期低位震荡，长期多头趋势不变。 一、黄金 策略 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月03日16时33分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨0.63%，沪银主力收跌16.71%，铂金主力收涨3.54%，钯金主力收涨涨8.62%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期放缓 。②避险属性方面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹象。特朗普称俄对乌部分地 区停火一周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预 期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度。美国12月PPI创五个月来最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联 储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率高位承压；④ 商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧 性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月30日15时49分 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅回撤，沪金主力收跌4.71%，沪银主力收跌6.03%，铂金主力收跌11.79%，钯金主力收涨跌11.87%。①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方 面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹象。最新特朗普称俄对乌部分地区停火一 周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，沃什再度成为美联储主席热门人选。由于沃什长期以偏鹰派立场著称。美 联储1月维持利率不变，鲍威尔称通胀和就业风险均有所缓解。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业疲软与高物价加剧忧虑。 美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长，提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租支出增加。目前市场 预期美联储下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑；铂金氢能产业铂基催 化剂需求预期强劲；钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月29日15时48分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨7.88%，沪银主力收涨8.51%，铂金主力收涨1.94%，钯金主力收涨涨2.95%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，特朗普敦促伊朗重返 核谈判，否则下一次打击将更猛烈。特朗普表示，将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升。 ③货币属性方面，美联储1月维持利率不变，鲍威尔称通胀和就业风险均有所缓解。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业疲软 与高物价加剧忧虑。美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长，提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租 支出增加。目前市场预期美联储下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央行表示，已批准一 项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面 临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to record highs since 2025, driven by a combination of industrial and financial demand [1][14] - The price of silver is more volatile than gold, influenced by its stronger commodity attributes and lower market capitalization [5][8] - Historical price surges of silver have occurred in four distinct phases over the past 50 years, with the latest phase beginning in 2024 due to geopolitical risks and monetary system instability [11][12] Group 2 - Industrial demand is the core driver of silver prices, accounting for 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant growth in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [18][20] - The supply of silver is relatively inelastic, with approximately 30% coming from independent silver mines and over 70% as a byproduct of mining other metals [14][20] - The financial attributes of silver amplify price volatility, particularly during periods of high liquidity and speculative trading [22][24] Group 3 - The silver market is expected to remain supported in the medium to long term due to structural demand from emerging industries [28] - The relationship between gold and silver prices is closely correlated, with silver often experiencing a "catch-up" rally following gold price increases [30][33] - Recent regulatory changes may elevate silver's status as a strategic asset, potentially increasing its demand in various economies [28][30]