投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月07日16时30分 | | | सिर्हे के | | | | सिद्धि में | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | ま客車 | 増減 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员简称 | 浄空車 | 増減 | 단F(%) | | | 前5名合计 | 74.693.00 | -606.00 | 23.61 | -- 前5名合计 | 12,126.00 | 114.00 | 3.83 | | | 前10名合计 | 104,497.00 | -2,126.00 | 33.04 | -- 前10名合计 | 14,832.00 | 236.00 | 4.69 | | | i 前20名台计 | 133.696.00 | -1.527.00 | 42.27 | -- 前20名台计 | 16.415.00 | 384.00 | 5.19 | | | 1 中信期货 | 23.435.00 | -957.00 | 7.41 | 1 云昌期货 | 4.2 ...

有色金属板块全面飘红，安宁股份、锡业股份涨停，华友钴业、湖南白银、中国铝业、华锡有色、洛阳钼业、紫金矿业等跟涨。有色矿业ETF招商 （159690）涨4.33%，盘中成交超2900万元，近7个交易日获资金连续净流入3300万元。 中信建投观点认为，工业金属价格由"金融属性"及"商品属性"共同决定，从金融属性来看，美联储已开启降息周期；从商品属性来看，全球铜铝库存均处于 相对低位，中国经济复苏可期，叠加新能源行业的拉动，铜铝需求增长将有所好转。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）紧密跟踪有色矿业指数，集中投资于拥有上游矿产资源的企业，包括北方稀土、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、中国铝业、 山东黄金等拥有大量资源储量的公司。从历史表现看，有色矿业指数2025年全年涨幅达104.84%，同期有色金属行业指数涨幅94.73%，相比同类指数锐度更 高。 | | 近1年涨跌幅 | 近1年最大回撤 | | --- | --- | --- | | 有色矿业 | 99.45% | -13.76% | | 工业有色 | 91.17% | -13.43% | | 右色令屋 | 7607 CD | -13 31% | | 证券代码 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇12月24日｜据期货日报，齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵金属市场走势进行了深度 解读。他认为，贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性，成为驱动价格的主导力量，白银供需缺口 的扩大或对价格形成支撑，结合海外宏观环境变化，投资者需重点关注流动性风险。关键转折点可能出 现在2026年年中。刘旭峰分析，美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，市场预计"鸽派"色彩浓 厚的凯文·哈塞特将接任，若其当选，那么美联储货币政策宽松节奏就可能加快。同时，为应对经济下 行压力与史上最长的政府"停摆"事件，美联储已重启扩表，但需警惕流动性边际收紧的潜在风险。 (本 内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

白银供应短缺或延续 在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第七期中，齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵金属市场走势进行了深 度解读。他认为，贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性，成为驱动价格的主导力量，白银供需缺口的扩大或对价格形成 支撑，结合海外宏观环境变化，投资者需重点关注流动性风险。 多重风险交织 刘旭峰表示，美元信用体系的长期影响力呈现弱化趋势，全球央行持续的购金行为是非美国家货币实力增强的体现，也反映了 对美元资产的分散化需求。值得注意的是，2025年中国央行购金力度已有所放缓，2026年是否暂停增持有待关注。 "尽管中长期宏观环境对贵金属价格构成一定支撑，但多重风险点不容忽视。"刘旭峰认为，重点应防范流动性风险，2020年3月 的市场波动表明，在极端流动性紧缩的情况下，黄金、白银等资产亦难以独善其身。此外，通胀反弹、经济实现软着陆及美联 储货币政策边际收紧的可能性，均可能扭转当前的市场预期。 刘旭峰建议，投资者策略上应关注向上的机会，在把握结构性行情的同时，对短线极端波动保持警惕。若海外经济在降息周期 中企稳反弹，则需重新评估中长期看多白银的逻辑基础。 刘旭峰表示，2021年— ...

12月22日，A股有色金属板块午后持续走强，白银有色涨停，中钨高新涨超9%，云南锗业、湖南白银、西部黄 金、紫金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金跟涨。矿业ETF（159690）涨2.73%。 中信建投认为，工业金属价格由"金融属性"及"商品属性"共同决定，从金融属性来看，美联储已开启降息周期； 从商品属性来看，全球铜、铝库存均处于相对低位，中国经济复苏可期，叠加新能源行业的拉动，铜铝需求增长 将有所好转。 矿业ETF（159690）跟踪的中证有色金属矿业指数覆盖工业金属、贵金属、能源金属、小金属等细分行业，一篮 子配置特性能够有效分散单一品种的价格波动风险。此外，招商基金表示，在能源转型（电动车、光伏）、AI算 力建设、全球宽松政策的共同推动下，资源需求具备长期支撑，或有助于布局"资源新周期"。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 申万宏源解读指出，近期金价强势主要系12月降息落地、失业率高于预期+CPI低于预期致1月降息预期升温、日 本央行加息靴子落地，长期看货币信用格局重塑持续，大而美法案通过后美国财政赤字率将提升，当前我国黄金 储备偏低，央行购金为长期趋势，金价中枢将持续上行。 除了贵金属持续强势，工业金属价格同样 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high-level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.21%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 3.07%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 0.68% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, leading to a slowdown in interest - rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed cut the interest rate with internal differences, hinting at a pause in action and possibly only one rate cut next year. The current market expects the probability of no rate cut in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible rate cut may be in April [1] - Precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and to rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4258.30 per ounce, up 0.51% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week. London gold was at $4200.15 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 957.90 yuan per gram, up 0.16% from the previous day and 0.47% from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 459,997 lots (100 ounces per lot), Shanghai Gold's main contract position decreased by 0.25% from the previous day and 2.76% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons with no change, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week [2] - **Investment Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $62.20 per ounce, up 1.70% from the previous day and 5.55% from last week. London silver was at $61.04 per ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 4.57% from last week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 14,488 yuan per kilogram, up 0.80% from the previous day and 7.93% from last week [6] - **Position and Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory increased by 10.60% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.07% from last week, and Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 19.34% from last week [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, all decreased by 0.25% compared to before. The Fed's total assets are $6586.185 billion, down $164.12 billion from before [8] - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 3.00%, the month - on - month CPI is 0.30%, the year - on - year core CPI is 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI is 0.30% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.00%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 3.80% [10] - **Employment Data**: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, and the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 123.60, down 22.89% from before; the VIX index is 15.77, down 6.85% from the previous day and 1.93% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 301.38, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.84% from last week [11] 4. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the 350 - 375 range in January 2026 is 77.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges changes over different meeting dates from 2026 to 2027 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 5.44%, platinum's main contract closed up 1.08%, and palladium's main contract closed up 1.08% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war - related避险 has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US job market is weakening, inflation is moderate, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects an 80%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak and silver strong, platinum will be strong and palladium weak. In the medium - term, they will fluctuate at high levels, and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market Performance - Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Comex gold's main contract closed at $4236.60 per ounce, up 0.40% from the previous day, and London gold closed at $4198.00 per ounce, up 0.23% from the previous day [1][2] - The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) was 956.40 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day [2] Core Logic - Short - term: Trade - war - related避险 has subsided, geopolitical risks remain, US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and interest - rate - cut expectations remain [1] - 避险 attribute: There are discussions about ending the Ukraine war, and there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - Monetary attribute: The possibility of Fed rate cuts has increased, the US economic activity has changed little, and the market is waiting for more economic data [1] - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry, and palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] Silver Market Performance - Comex silver's main contract closed at $61.16 per ounce, up 4.55% from the previous day, and London silver closed at $58.63 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day [8] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) was 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, up 5.63% from the previous day [8] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attribute - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.90%, down 0.25% from the previous value [10] - The Fed's total assets were $65861.85 billion, down 0.00% from the previous value [10] - M2 (year - on - year): 4.65%, up 0.22% from the previous value; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.51, up 0.80% from the previous day, up 2.03% from the previous week [10] - US Treasury spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [12] 避险 Attribute - Geopolitical risk index: 123.60, up 14.93% from the previous day, down 27.38% from the previous week; VIX index: 16.93, up 1.62% from the previous day, up 2.05% from the previous week [13] Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index: 299.63, down 0.61% from the previous day, down 0.87% from the previous week; offshore RMB: 7.0685, up 0.10% from the previous week [13] Fed's Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate changes from December 10, 2025, to October 27, 2027, are presented [14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed trend with the non-ferrous sector experiencing upward fluctuations, particularly highlighted by the performance of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which has seen significant inflows and a year-to-date increase of 70.77% [4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 28, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose by 1.64%, with a peak increase of over 2%, attracting net subscriptions of 900,000 units, amounting to over 13 million yuan [1]. - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF have shown strong performance, with notable increases such as Yahua Group rising over 5% and Huayou Cobalt and Chifeng Jilong Gold increasing over 3% [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Yahua Group announced a lithium salt production capacity of 99,000 tons, with an additional 30,000 tons production line expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [6]. - The exploration project in Songpan County has identified an additional gold resource of 28.24 tons, bringing the total to 81.06 tons, valued at over 76 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts express a positive outlook for the non-ferrous sector, with Citic Securities indicating that the sector is poised for further advancement [6]. - The financial attributes of metals like gold and copper are expected to strengthen due to declining real interest rates and increasing inflation expectations, making them attractive as inflation hedges [8][11]. - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are expected to improve, driven by new demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy, suggesting a bullish trend for these metals [7][13]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has a high concentration of key metals, with copper accounting for 33% and gold for 13%, making it a leading choice in the sector [17]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return that outpaces its peers while maintaining a reasonable valuation, as indicated by a PE ratio of 23.74, down 61% from five years ago [19].

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from their lows, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.27% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 1.41%. The short - term core logic includes: the risk of trade war has eased, but geopolitical risks still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1st. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4038.30 per ounce, up 2.45% from the previous day; London gold was at $3994.15 per ounce, down 0.31%. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 921.92 yuan per gram, up 1.07%; gold T + D closed at 921.02 yuan per gram, up 1.51%. [2] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 hands; Shanghai gold's main contract positions decreased by 4.11% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.73 per ounce, up 3.08% from the previous day; London silver was at $48.18 per ounce, up 0.01%. [6] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 11,441 yuan per kilogram, up 1.67%; silver T + D closed at 11,410 yuan per kilogram, up 1.90%. [6] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 hands; Shanghai silver's main contract positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day. The total visible inventory decreased by 1.03% from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are $66,371.78 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week. [8] - **Economic indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.35, the dollar index is 99.52, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.31. [8] - **Inflation indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, and PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74%. [10] - **Employment indicators**: The unemployment rate is 4.30%, and non - farm payrolls changed by 2.20 million. [10] - **Other indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 188.52, the VIX index is 16.23, the CRB commodity index is 300.77, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0944. [11]