作者：舒思勤、洪希柠、方丽、夏昌盛 正文 ■ 投资逻辑 发展概况 数字人民币是央行发行的数字形式的法定货币，具有法偿性、安全性、高便捷性、可编程性等特点。2026 年 1 月 1 日，数字人民币定位由 M0 升级为 M1，能够增强个人及企业持有数字人民币的意愿、激发商业银行的推广动力。数字人民币采用双层运营体系，央行负责数字人民币的发行、注销等，指 定运营机构提供数字人民币兑换、流通支付等服务，并承担相应的合规和反洗钱责任。经历多年发展，目前已形成 10 家运营机构参与、更多银行及非银 行机构响应、17个省市区的 26 个地区试点的状态，截至 2025 年 11 月末，数字人民币累计处理交易 34.8 亿笔，累计交易金额 16.7万亿元。通过数字人民 币 APP 开立个人钱包 2.3 亿个，数字人民币单位钱包已开立 1884 万个。 未来展望 动力充足：1）加密货币、全球性稳定币等虚拟货币可能给国际货币体系、支付清算体系、货币政策、跨境资本流动管理等带来诸多风险和挑战，因此发 展主权货币的数字货币有必要性。2）根据智通财经报道，全球共有 130 个国家(占全球经济总量的 98%)正在探索本国货币的数字版本，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the digital renminbi (e-CNY) is transforming the digital financial landscape and facilitating the internationalization of the renminbi through technological upgrades and institutional innovations [10]. Group 1: Digital Renminbi Development - The digital renminbi has transitioned from a cash equivalent (M0) to a fully functional legal digital currency, marking a new paradigm in digital finance and the internationalization of the renminbi [10]. - The People's Bank of China has established three principles for the digital currency: "no loss, compliance, and interoperability," which serve as fundamental guidelines for building cross-border infrastructure [5][6]. - As of November 2025, the digital renminbi has processed 3.48 billion transactions, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan, with 230 million personal wallets opened through the digital renminbi app [6]. Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The digital renminbi is positioned to enhance domestic payment efficiency and promote financial inclusion while reshaping the cross-border payment landscape [7]. - Traditional cross-border payment systems face challenges such as high costs and inefficiencies, which the digital renminbi aims to address through point-to-point payments and real-time settlement mechanisms [7]. - The implementation of a partial reserve system for the digital renminbi will create new issuance channels and enhance user retention by allowing interest payments on digital currency held in wallets [8]. Group 3: Strategic Importance and Challenges - The digital renminbi's unique characteristics present new challenges for issuers, operators, and users, necessitating enhanced technical capabilities and security measures [9]. - The widespread application of the digital renminbi will impact the central bank's monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic regulation, requiring a comprehensive approach to development and security [9]. - The establishment of an international operational center and the expansion of the "mBridge" network will position the digital renminbi as a "digital bridge" connecting more countries [8].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced a new action plan to enhance the management and service system for digital currency, with a new digital RMB framework set to launch on January 1, 2026 [1][2] - As of November 2025, the digital RMB has processed 3.48 billion transactions, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan, with 230 million personal wallets opened through the digital RMB app [1] - The digital RMB is evolving into a strategic tool that integrates finance, technology, and data, enhancing trade efficiency and national competitiveness [3] Group 1: Digital Currency Developments - The digital RMB's management system and infrastructure will officially start in 2026, indicating a significant step in China's digital currency evolution [1] - The digital RMB has seen substantial adoption, with 3.48 billion transactions and a total transaction value of 16.7 trillion yuan by late 2025 [1] - The digital RMB app has facilitated the opening of 230 million personal wallets, showcasing its growing user base [1] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - The article outlines four key challenges faced by central banks regarding digital currency: modern payment tools' impact on monetary control, risks of financial disintermediation, the relationship between digital cash and commercial banks, and the balance between centralized management and decentralized blockchain features [2] - The Chinese government is exploring international cooperation in digital finance, particularly through the mBridge project for cross-border payments with countries like Thailand and the UAE [2] - Predictions suggest that by 2030, the global cross-border payment market could reach $290 trillion, with the RMB's share potentially between 10% and 20%, and digital currency penetration between 20% and 40% [2] Group 3: Blockchain and Industry Growth - As of December 25, 2025, China has registered 74,600 blockchain-related companies, marking a record high in the past five years, with the majority located in South China [3] - The number of existing blockchain companies in China has steadily increased over the past decade, with a notable acceleration in growth since 2019, totaling 289,400 companies by late 2025 [3] - The development of digital RMB is seen as a strategic asset that leverages blockchain technology to enhance trade efficiency and align with national interests [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan to enhance the management and service system of the digital renminbi, with a new framework set to launch on January 1, 2026 [1] Group 1: Digital Renminbi Infrastructure - A digital renminbi international operation center will be established in Shanghai, promoting the use of blockchain technology for digital renminbi applications [1] - The action plan includes the development of a blockchain service platform and digital asset platform, enabling on-chain settlement tools and cross-chain transfer capabilities [1] - The multi-central bank digital currency bridge aims to address jurisdictional issues related to business and currency sovereignty, ensuring equal rights and responsibilities among participants [1] Group 2: Future Development and Capabilities - Future cross-border use of digital renminbi will focus on technological iterations to expand access and reduce service costs, facilitating cross-border trade and investment [2] - The digital renminbi will adopt a mixed currency model, incorporating both account-based and value-based approaches to meet diverse economic needs [2] - The digital renminbi has demonstrated capabilities as a programmable currency, allowing for digital contracts and automated execution [2] Group 3: Current Performance Metrics - As of November 2025, the digital renminbi has processed 3.48 billion transactions, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan [3] - The digital renminbi app has opened 230 million personal wallets, with 18.84 million unit wallets established [3] - The multi-central bank digital currency bridge has processed 4,047 cross-border payment transactions, totaling approximately 387.2 billion yuan, with digital renminbi accounting for about 95.3% of the transaction volume [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan to enhance the management and service system for digital currency, set to be implemented on January 1, 2026 [1] Group 1: Digital Currency Development - The new digital yuan framework will include measurement, management, operational mechanisms, and ecosystem [1] - As of November 2025, the total number of transactions using digital yuan reached 3.48 billion, with a total transaction value of 16.7 trillion yuan [1] - The number of personal wallets opened through the digital yuan app is 230 million, while there are 18.84 million corporate wallets [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment Initiatives - The mBridge project has completed 4,047 cross-border payment transactions, amounting to 387.2 billion yuan [1] - Digital yuan accounts for approximately 95.3% of the transaction value across various currencies in the mBridge project [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China announced that the new digital RMB framework will officially launch on January 1, 2026, marking a significant step in the evolution of digital currency in China [1] - The digital RMB is currently leading in trials among central banks globally, showcasing its advanced capabilities in various aspects of digital currency [1] Group 1: Digital RMB Capabilities - The digital RMB has a hybrid currency capability, supporting both account and blockchain models, as well as software and hardware wallets, enabling both online and offline payments [1] - It features programmable currency capabilities, allowing for smart contracts that facilitate digitalization and automatic execution of contracts [1] - The digital RMB offers efficient regulatory capabilities with strong transparency, standardization, and interoperability [1] - It has a comprehensive application across various sectors, including wholesale and retail, dining and tourism, education and healthcare, public services, social governance, rural revitalization, and cross-border settlements [1] Group 2: Transaction Data - As of November 2025, the digital RMB has processed a total of 3.48 billion transactions, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan [2] - The digital RMB app has opened 230 million personal wallets, with 18.84 million unit wallets established [2] - The mBridge project has handled 4,047 cross-border payment transactions, totaling approximately 387.2 billion yuan, with the digital RMB accounting for about 95.3% of the transaction volume across currencies [2]

Core Insights - The digital RMB pilot is expanding in application scenarios, with the Beijing branch of the Construction Bank focusing on serving state-owned enterprises and cross-border settlements, contributing to the capital's "two zones" construction and the global digital economy benchmark city development [1] Group 1: Digital Currency Applications - The Beijing branch of Construction Bank, in collaboration with a financial company, launched a group digital currency direct connection and treasury settlement project, leveraging advantages like "loadable smart contracts" and "no transaction fees" to enhance corporate treasury management efficiency [2] - At the 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services, Construction Bank showcased its achievements in building a financial powerhouse and promoting the real economy, including a section dedicated to digital currency, where visitors could open digital wallets and experience convenient consumption [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment Solutions - The Beijing branch utilized the mBridge platform to facilitate a 6.75 million RMB cross-border remittance for a state-owned enterprise subsidiary, highlighting the efficiency, low cost, and high security of the digital currency cross-border payment solutions [4] - The mBridge platform, based on distributed ledger technology, enables real-time settlement across jurisdictions, providing a tailored cross-border payment solution that enhances payment efficiency and reduces costs for enterprises [4]

Group 1 - The 2025 Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investor Conference opened on November 12, focusing on "Value Leading, Open Empowerment - New Opportunities for International Capital Investment and Mergers" with participation from over 100 renowned investment institutions and nearly 400 representatives [1] - The China Securities Index launched the Asia Select 100 Index and the Asia Select 100 Dividend Focus Index at the conference, providing benchmarks for investment in major Asian markets [2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board reported a significant 75% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, with "hard tech" companies increasing R&D investments in key industries such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine [3] Group 2 - The 19th Golden Investment Conference featured a special event focused on the Changxing Marine Equipment Industrial Park, discussing the promotion of inclusive finance and the optimization of the business environment [4] - Hang Seng Bank (China) and China Construction Bank launched a digital RMB merchant payment service in Hong Kong, expanding the application of digital RMB in retail consumption [5] - The Shanghai branch of Bank of Communications facilitated the first mBridge digital currency remittance for Sinochem International, marking a breakthrough in cross-border payment using central bank digital currencies [6] Group 3 - The Export-Import Bank of Shanghai achieved its first credit issuance in the commercial aerospace sector, marking a significant milestone [8] - Cathay Financial Holdings, together with Bank of China and China Pacific Insurance, launched a cross-border financial service plan to support Chinese enterprises' overseas operations [9] - The Shanghai Clearing House signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Commodity Warehouse Receipt Registration Company to enhance collaboration in commodity clearing [10] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission chairman visited financial regulatory bodies in France and Brazil to discuss capital market cooperation [11] - The People's Bank of China released the "Interbank Market Brokerage Business Management Measures" to enhance regulation and transparency in the interbank market [13] - The People's Bank of China reported on the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining ample liquidity and supporting economic recovery [14] Group 5 - As of the end of October, the total social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [15] - The broad money (M2) balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while the narrow money (M1) balance was 112 trillion yuan, up by 6.2% [15] - The cross-border RMB settlement amount for the current account reached 1.41 trillion yuan in October [17]

Core Insights - The global economic landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with the stability of the dollar-centric system being questioned while the internationalization of the renminbi is progressing steadily [1][5] - A rumor about the UN Secretary-General supporting the dollar has sparked widespread debate, highlighting the complexities of the current global monetary system [3][5] Group 1: Dollar's Dominance and Challenges - The dollar's dominance as a global reserve currency is facing significant challenges, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping from 71.14% in 2000 to an estimated 57.8% in 2024 [7] - The unprecedented financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia have raised concerns about the safety of dollar assets, prompting countries to seek alternatives [7][8] - The U.S. national debt has surged to over $33 trillion, raising alarms among global investors regarding the sustainability of the dollar [7][8] Group 2: Renminbi's Rise - The renminbi has become the fourth largest payment currency globally, with a market share of 4.33% as of February 2023, and it has also emerged as the third largest trade financing currency with a 5.28% market share [5][6] - Many countries are accelerating their "de-dollarization" efforts, with significant increases in the use of renminbi for trade settlements, particularly between China and Russia, where renminbi settlements account for 95% [6][7] - The internationalization of the renminbi is supported by China's robust economic foundation and ongoing financial market reforms, including the opening of its bond market to foreign investors [9][10] Group 3: Future Prospects and Innovations - The development of digital currency initiatives, such as the mBridge project, is expected to enhance the efficiency and security of cross-border payments, potentially involving over 50 countries by 2026 [10] - The internationalization of the renminbi is projected to bring tangible economic benefits, with cross-border renminbi settlements reaching 52 trillion yuan in 2024, saving businesses approximately 120 billion yuan in exchange rate costs [11] - The goal of renminbi internationalization is not to replace the dollar but to provide a reliable alternative within a more balanced and diversified global monetary system [10][12]

Core Insights - The payment system is a crucial financial infrastructure that supports consumer spending and economic stability in China. The system has seen significant advancements in recent years, providing secure, efficient, and convenient payment services that bolster the real economy [1] Group 1: Development Achievements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the People's Bank of China has made substantial progress in building a modern payment system that ranks among the world's best. The payment system's business volume has grown at an average annual rate of 12.52%, with a total business volume expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan in 2024. Mobile payment transactions are projected to reach 1.71 times the volume of 2020 [2] - The average payment service fee is below 0.6%, significantly lower than that in Europe and the United States [2] Group 2: Market Structure - The payment market has evolved into a diverse and collaborative ecosystem, with the People's Bank of China optimizing the roles of clearing institutions, commercial banks, payment institutions, and industry associations to provide a wide range of payment services [3] - The China Payment and Clearing Association plays a self-regulatory role, ensuring fair competition and promoting high-quality development in the payment clearing industry [3] Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The payment industry is entering a new phase characterized by compliance and sustainable development. A comprehensive regulatory framework has been established, including the introduction of the first specialized regulation for non-bank payment institutions, marking a new stage in the industry's development [4] - The People's Bank of China has adopted a "zero tolerance" approach to illegal activities in the payment sector, focusing on risk prevention across the entire payment process [4] Group 4: Service Accessibility - The payment services have become more secure, convenient, and inclusive, with a diverse range of payment methods available to meet the public's needs. Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, non-cash payment transactions have reached 23 trillion, representing a 2.34-fold increase in volume compared to the previous five years [5] - The rapid adoption of mobile payment services has transformed various transaction scenarios, bridging the digital divide for the elderly and enhancing payment services in rural areas [5] Group 5: Cross-Border Payment Progress - The People's Bank of China is actively promoting the construction of a self-controlled cross-border payment system, with the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) processing 175 trillion yuan in cross-border RMB transactions in 2024, a 43% increase year-on-year [6][7] - The establishment of a cross-border payment platform for digital currencies has been initiated in collaboration with central banks from Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UAE [7] Group 6: Enhancing Foreign Payment Services - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to improve payment services for foreign nationals in China, including allowing the use of foreign mobile numbers to register for domestic payment apps and enhancing payment guides at key locations [8] - As a result, the number of active mobile payment users among inbound travelers exceeded 10 million in the first half of 2025, with transaction volumes and amounts increasing by 162% and 149%, respectively [8]