Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [6] - **Pigs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Oscillating (short - term), Oscillating weakly (long - term) [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market is generally in a state of oscillation. Each variety is affected by different factors, including supply, demand, weather, and policy. For example, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate weakly due to factors such as good soybean growth and the palm oil production season, while protein meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term with cost support [5][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, but the current growth is good. - **Industry Information**: As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The 2025 U.S. soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the expected 83.655 million acres. As of June 1, 2025, the U.S. old - crop soybean inventory was 1.01 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year [5]. - **Logic**: The U.S. soybean planting area being slightly lower than expected and the quarterly inventory being higher than expected offset each other. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the industrial side shows that U.S. soybean growth is good, and the palm oil production pressure may decrease marginally in June. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly, but factors such as trade uncertainties and the expected increase in overseas biodiesel consumption of oils may support prices [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The strong Brazilian soybean premium provides cost support for the Dalian soybean meal futures. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 41.63 yuan/ton, up 3.71% week - on - week [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the U.S. soybean area is in line with expectations, but the quarterly inventory is increased. Brazil's soybean exports are strong, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, soybean arrivals increase, oil mills' inventory accumulates, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, but cost support exists in the long - run [6]. - **Outlook**: The U.S. soybean is expected to oscillate in a range. Domestic soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price points on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The imported corn auction was sold at a premium, and the spot price remains firm. - **Industry Information**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic corn average price was 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is mainly rising. The trade volume is reluctant to sell, and the demand is squeezed by wheat. The imported corn auction has limited volume and was sold at a premium. New - crop corn growth is affected by weather [8]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the supply - demand gap expectation, the price may rise, but there may be callbacks due to potential negative impacts of policy - grain auctions [8]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the impact of subsequent rainfall needs attention. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the Henan live pig (foreign ternary) price was 15.15 yuan/kg, up 1% month - on - month, and the live pig futures closing price was 13,865 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but farmers still have the intention to hold back. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets is increasing, and in the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The demand is weak, and the inventory is partially transferred [9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the average slaughter weight is decreasing, farmers' intention to hold back still exists, and it is currently the off - season for consumption [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The rubber price rose in the afternoon following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 18% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market rose, and the rubber price followed. The raw material price is firm, providing bottom - support. The supply is expected to increase, but the demand is expected to decrease [11]. - **Outlook**: Before new fundamental guidance emerges, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price followed the overall commodity trend, first falling and then rising. - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is relatively warm, and the futures price is stable and oscillating. The fundamental trading is not significant, and it mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and the overall commodity market. The overall operating level has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures has slowed down due to the upward revision of the U.S. cotton planting area. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,211, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2][13]. - **Logic**: In the new - crop season, the production of China and other major cotton - producing countries is expected to increase. The U.S. cotton planting area is revised upward. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing support [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Due to the lack of positive factors, the sugar price continues to lack upward momentum. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [15]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar - making season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated imported sugar arrivals. Internationally, the new - crop production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the pulp futures maintain a weak operation. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp import volume remains high, the price is in a downward trend, the demand is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory is high. The pulp price is under pressure to fall, but it is risky to short at the current low level [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules [16]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The market has returned to fundamental - driven, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory has decreased due to reduced arrivals, but it is the consumption off - season. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the far - month contracts are expected to be weak due to the weak fundamentals [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The far - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report also lists the sections for data monitoring of various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [20][39][52]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak", with corresponding explanations of expected price changes and the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks [169].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean One: No clear rating [1] - Bean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean Oil: No clear rating [1] - Palm Oil: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Meal: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆★ [1] - Corn: No clear rating [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The soybean market is affected by factors such as policy, weather, and supply. The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors but has a bullish strategy. The corn market will fluctuate. The live pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market is bearish in the long - term [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Contents Soybeans - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate repeatedly, with local reserve soybean auctions resulting in no sales. The policy - driven trading volume is small. Imported soybeans face the pressure of large - scale arrivals from May to July, and weather will be a key factor in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has shrunk, with about 16% of the planting area affected as of May 20, compared to 17% the previous week and 6% last year. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal main contract continued to close higher. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant since May. There are many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and the market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3] Bean Oil and Palm Oil - The US House of Representatives has passed the 45Z amendment bill, which may increase the demand for domestic raw materials in North America, increase US soybean crushing, and reduce US soybean exports. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle overseas and faces the pressure of increased arrivals in China from May to June. The prices of bean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures contracts mainly fluctuated with small daily price changes. The sowing of Canadian rapeseed is advancing, and as of May 19, 58% of the rapeseed in Saskatchewan has been sown. The supply of oilseeds in China is expected to be abundant in the second quarter, and the strategy is still bullish [5] Corn - Corn futures rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom this week. The spot price of corn in Northeast China continued to decline slightly, and the supply in Shandong decreased. After the transfer of grain ownership, the market - circulating grain is still in the trading link. Starch enterprises have had long - term losses, with a recent decline in operating rates and a slight recovery in profits. The market will fluctuate in the next stage [6] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continued to hit new lows, and the spot price was under pressure due to the accelerated slaughter rate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs will recover, and the spot price is expected to decline, which may put downward pressure on the futures price [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs across the country generally declined, and the near - month June contract continued to hit new lows. In the short - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stop falling and stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period. In the medium - term, the industry's production capacity is expected to increase until the end of September. In the long - term, the egg price is bearish [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International soybean market supply is still relatively loose, while domestic soybean supply pressure exists, and soybean and related products are expected to show certain trends. Brazilian sugar is about to enter the peak - crushing season, with short - term sugar prices expected to be weak. The palm oil market in Malaysia may continue to increase production and inventory, and the domestic soybean oil inventory will also start to accumulate. The corn market has stable domestic spot prices and strong futures support. The pig market is expected to be weak. The peanut market has limited short - term rebound space. The egg supply is sufficient, and the apple market is expected to be slightly stronger. The cotton market is expected to be strong due to macro - level influence [3][10][19][28][34][39][50][55][61] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1050.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.5% to $297.7 per short ton [2] - **相关资讯**: Anec raised Brazil's May soybean and soybean meal export forecasts. EU's 2024/25 rapeseed and soybean meal imports increased compared to last year. South American soybean crushing and exports are growing. As of May 16, domestic oil mills' soybean actual crushing volume was 1.9055 million tons, with an operating rate of 53.56%. Soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week and 33.95% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week but decreased by 80.47% year - on - year [2] - **逻辑分析**: International market supply is loose, and domestic soybean supply pressure exists, with soybean meal accumulating inventory [3] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, slightly layout long positions; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 positive spread and expand MRM09 spread; for options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [6] Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar fell 0.04 (0.23%) to 17.41 cents per pound [7] - **重要资讯**: In April 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of May decreased by 42.92% year - on - year. The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi slightly decreased [8][9] - **逻辑分析**: Brazilian sugar is about to enter the peak - crushing season, with short - term prices expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are stronger than raw sugar, but also expected to be weak [10] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect weak fluctuations and pay attention to extreme weather in Guangxi. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. For options, sell wide straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12][13] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil's main price changed by 1.33% to 49.57 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil's main price changed by - 0.15% to 3904 ringgit per ton [15] - **相关资讯**: MPOC expects the price of Malaysian palm oil to fluctuate between 3750 and 4050 ringgit in May and then gradually recover. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 20 increased by 5.3% month - on - month. US soybean crushing profit increased by 7% week - on - week. In March 2025, Brazil processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans. China's April palm oil imports decreased by 6.35% month - on - month but increased by 6.44% year - on - year, and rapeseed imports increased by 98.26% month - on - month and 3.92% year - on - year [16][17][18] - **逻辑分析**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory in May. Domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space is limited [19] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect short - term volatile operation and consider shorting palm oil at the upper limit of the range. For arbitrage, consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09, and go long OI91 at low prices. For options, stay on the sidelines [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose 1.5%, with the main contract closing at 454.5 cents per bushel [25] - **重要资讯**: The temperature and precipitation in the US corn - producing areas are abnormal. Argentina will extend the tax exemption for wheat exports. Heavy rainfall is affecting the US corn belt. As of May 15, US corn export inspection volume increased week - on - week. On May 21, the purchase price in the northern port was stable, and the price in the North China production area was also stable [26][27] - **逻辑分析**: US corn is weak, while domestic corn has stable spot prices and strong futures support [28] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, the outer - market July corn has support at around 440 cents per bushel, and you can try to go long on July corn. For arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread and expand it at low prices. For options, those with spot goods can consider the strategy of selling call options at high prices [29][31][32] Pig - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating. As of May 20, the prices of piglets and sows changed slightly. On May 20, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.7% [34] - **逻辑分析**: After the previous price decline, the market's motivation to stabilize prices has increased, but the pig market is still expected to be weak [34] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect oscillating operation. For arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spread. For options, sell wide straddle options [35] Peanut - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume and contract prices of peanut oil mills vary. Peanut oil prices are strong, while peanut meal sales are weak. As of May 15, domestic peanut inventory increased, and peanut oil inventory decreased [37][38] - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is still scarce. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The short - term rise of peanuts in October is limited [39] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for October peanuts. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [41][42][43] Egg - **重要资讯**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas decreased. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable. In April, the number of laying hens in production increased. The weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased. The production and circulation inventory decreased. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs increased [45][46][49] - **交易逻辑**: The overall egg supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to close out short positions and stay on the sidelines [50] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, close out short positions and stay on the sidelines. For arbitrage, go long on August eggs and short on September eggs. For options, stay on the sidelines [50][51][52] Apple - **重要资讯**: As of April 16, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas decreased, and the de - stocking was faster than the same period. In 2025, the cumulative export volume of fresh apples increased, and the import volume also increased. The mainstream apple prices in the origin were stable, and the profit of apple storage merchants increased [54][55] - **交易逻辑**: The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the market supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is launched. The new fruit season's weather has affected the fruit setting in some areas, and the apple price is expected to be slightly stronger [55] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, go long on AP10 at low prices. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [56] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose 0.44 (0.67%) to 66.12 cents per pound [58] - **重要资讯**: As of May 18, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. In April 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic spot trading of domestic cotton changed little, and the basis was relatively strong [59][60] - **交易逻辑**: Due to the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the cotton market is expected to be strong [61] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [64][67]