12月18日收盘，纯碱主力合约上涨2.14%，收于1193.00元/吨。多部委推进"反内卷"，带动市场情绪偏乐观。供应端，纯碱产量 小幅上升。新产能投产背景下，长期供给压力较大。当前价格处于低位，成本抬升情况下，预计碱厂检修意愿较强，产量可能 下滑，后续重点关注供应情况。 需求端，光伏玻璃产量环比持稳，浮法玻璃产量环比下滑，价格下滑浮法玻璃冷修预期增加，纯碱需求端承压。 总体来看，重碱需求有走弱预期;轻碱需求较为稳定。库存端，下游补库带动碱厂库存持续下行，考虑到后续仍有检修，可能导 致供应下滑，碱厂累库压力短期有所缓解。当前需关注成本端支撑情况，动力煤在保供情况下，价格走弱，纯碱成本预计将下 移，震荡思路对待。 基本面来看，纯碱供应水平低位稳定，行业开工率昨日维持在82.05%。部分地区大厂降负荷，且后续仍有企业计划检修，纯碱 供应仍有波动。需求端表现一般，中下游低价采购，刚需跟进为主。玻璃产线冷修预期加强，纯碱刚需也存在继续回落预期。 纯碱基本面波动幅度不大，期货市场相关化工品种、黑色系品种集体走强提供联动效应，且市场对宏观、反内卷或环保、地产 政策等外部因素仍存预期。预计短期纯碱期货价格继续低位反弹，但当 ...

2026 年农林牧渔年度策略：时机等待，攻守并进 20251217 摘要 年初至 11 月中旬农业行业涨幅略高于沪深 300 指数，在申万一级行业 中排名有所提升，但子行业表现分化，动物保健和农产品加工表现突出， 而养殖、饲料和种植业相对落后。 2026 年投资重点仍是生猪养殖和宠物食品板块。生猪养殖机会在于产 能变化带来的猪价预期，宠物食品则受益于市场需求增长和市占率提升， 自有品牌发展是关键。 生猪养殖板块 2025 年经历震荡上行后调整，上市猪企盈利改善，但四 季度可能出现亏损。市占率持续提升，需跟踪能繁母猪产能和下游需求 变化。预计 2026 年生猪出栏量增加，均价或将下行至 13.5 元/公斤。 宠物食品板块依托出口维持业绩，自有品牌是未来增长关键。市场需求 持续增长，市占率提升空间大，自由品牌增速超预期将带来估值溢价。 出口增长是业绩基础，自有品牌发展是关键。 预计未来 5-6 个月肥猪出栏量面临较大供应压力，冻品库存上升，二次 育肥现象普遍，可能对明年 1-2 月猪价产生波动性影响。冬季疫病可能 对生猪价格产生短期弹性影响。 Q&A 2025 年农林牧渔行业的整体走势如何？ 2025 年初至 9 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean One: No clear rating [1] - Bean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean Oil: No clear rating [1] - Palm Oil: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Meal: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆★ [1] - Corn: No clear rating [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The soybean market is affected by factors such as policy, weather, and supply. The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors but has a bullish strategy. The corn market will fluctuate. The live pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market is bearish in the long - term [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Contents Soybeans - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate repeatedly, with local reserve soybean auctions resulting in no sales. The policy - driven trading volume is small. Imported soybeans face the pressure of large - scale arrivals from May to July, and weather will be a key factor in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has shrunk, with about 16% of the planting area affected as of May 20, compared to 17% the previous week and 6% last year. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal main contract continued to close higher. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant since May. There are many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and the market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3] Bean Oil and Palm Oil - The US House of Representatives has passed the 45Z amendment bill, which may increase the demand for domestic raw materials in North America, increase US soybean crushing, and reduce US soybean exports. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle overseas and faces the pressure of increased arrivals in China from May to June. The prices of bean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures contracts mainly fluctuated with small daily price changes. The sowing of Canadian rapeseed is advancing, and as of May 19, 58% of the rapeseed in Saskatchewan has been sown. The supply of oilseeds in China is expected to be abundant in the second quarter, and the strategy is still bullish [5] Corn - Corn futures rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom this week. The spot price of corn in Northeast China continued to decline slightly, and the supply in Shandong decreased. After the transfer of grain ownership, the market - circulating grain is still in the trading link. Starch enterprises have had long - term losses, with a recent decline in operating rates and a slight recovery in profits. The market will fluctuate in the next stage [6] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continued to hit new lows, and the spot price was under pressure due to the accelerated slaughter rate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs will recover, and the spot price is expected to decline, which may put downward pressure on the futures price [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs across the country generally declined, and the near - month June contract continued to hit new lows. In the short - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stop falling and stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period. In the medium - term, the industry's production capacity is expected to increase until the end of September. In the long - term, the egg price is bearish [8]

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]