以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ，作者王彦青 CFC金属研究 . 一、铂钯投研框架 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件，进行专业的解读和评论，分享专业的价值观点，提出专业的投资策略，力争为普通投资 者、产业人士打造专业的投资交流平台，并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 文 | 王彦青 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 广期所即将上市铂钯期货，为了便于投资者理解铂钯行业，我们推出铂钯期货系列专题报告，本文是系列的第四篇，主 要围绕铂钯品种的投研框架与历史行情驱动因素进行探讨。 铂钯价格的决定因素始终是供需关系，无论是微观层面的供给冲击/矿企成本利润，还是宏观层面的政策变动，都通过扰 动供需两端对价格产生影响。 铂钯投研框架的核心主要基于以下价格影响因素：铂钯矿企成本支撑长短期价格，矿企利润通过影响资本开支扰动供 给，供需平衡状况决定铂钯价格走向，宏观波动会强化供需平衡决定的价格趋势与波动率。 从历史来看，铂钯的历史走势更多受需求变化影响，特别是围绕汽车行业需求为核心，包括排放法规的更新与要求的提 高等牵引铂钯价格的走向。不过，自2020年以来，疫情、地缘政治风险、贸易战等因素持续影响 ...

锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月25日 Z0021810 冠帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#娱 | 293500 | 291300 | 2200 | 0.76% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 600 | 600 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 294000 | 291800 | 2200 | 0.75% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 95.67 | 95.00 | 0.67 | 0.71% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 讲口密亏 | -15805.26 | -16328.60 | 523.34 | 3.21% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.92 | 7.91 | | | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 现 ...

Group 1 - Domestic PVC powder market prices increased, with futures showing volatility; spot pricing and fixed pricing coexist, with limited transactions mainly driven by downstream demand [1] - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week; the operating rate for calcium carbide PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method's operating rate is 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.6 days, a decrease of 11.11% from the previous week, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] Group 2 - The recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. was interpreted as underwhelming, negatively impacting the PVC market; previous price rebounds have halted [3] - Supply side shows low operating rates due to maintenance, but some maintenance is ending this week, leading to increased production and supply returning to high levels [3] - Demand remains low with limited orders from downstream, primarily driven by essential purchases; raw material costs for calcium carbide are rising but with limited space for further increases, while ethylene prices may decrease next week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is supported by fundamental factors, but may experience short-term fluctuations due to macroeconomic volatility [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Pre-holiday inventory stocking and active purchasing have met demand targets, leading to a continued reduction in spot inventory [1] - Overseas raw material prices remain high, providing some support to the natural rubber fundamentals [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Influences - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to an overall decline in the commodity sector [1] - Increased macroeconomic guidance has weakened sentiment in the spot market [1] - As a result, rubber prices may experience short-term fluctuations and consolidation due to macroeconomic volatility [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a weakening sentiment in the spot market for rubber due to macroeconomic influences, particularly following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have led to a general decline in the commodity sector [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Pre-holiday inventory replenishment and active purchasing have likely led to a continued reduction in spot inventory levels [1] - High overseas raw material prices provide some fundamental support for natural rubber [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Impact - The macroeconomic environment has become more pronounced, contributing to a weakening sentiment in the spot market [1] - Short-term fluctuations in rubber prices may be influenced by macroeconomic volatility [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global market dynamics influenced by tariff impacts, particularly focusing on the U.S. and Chinese markets, as well as the performance of various asset classes including equities and commodities like gold. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Impact Recovery**: The Japanese and U.S. stock markets rebounded after the elimination of tariff impacts, surpassing pre-tariff levels by May 2, indicating that the influence of tariffs on stock markets has been largely repaired [1][2] - **Resilience of Chinese Assets**: Despite a weaker performance post-tariff impact, the decline in trade dependency on the U.S. has provided resilience to Chinese assets, which the market has not fully priced in yet [1][3] - **U.S. Stock Market Ambiguity**: The U.S. stock market has shown mixed signals, with non-farm data exceeding expectations leading to new highs, but disappointing GDP data and political factors have resulted in a fragile rebound, potentially delaying interest rate cuts [1][4][5] - **China's Policy Response**: China is enhancing cooperation with non-U.S. economies and signaling engagement with the U.S., while also expected to introduce domestic demand policies to counter external trade uncertainties [1][6] - **Macroeconomic Volatility Forecast**: By Q2 2025, macroeconomic volatility in the U.S. is expected to increase, with China clarifying external negotiation outcomes and implementing domestic policies, contributing to heightened global market fluctuations [1][7] - **Downstream Profit Recovery**: Since 2022, there has been a gradual recovery in profitability in downstream sectors, with midstream sectors also beginning to stabilize, attracting market attention towards companies performing well in the domestic demand sector [1][8] - **Gold Market Transition**: The demand for gold in China has weakened due to the recovery of RMB assets, leading to a potential shift of funds back to RMB assets. After a recent correction, gold is expected to enter a transitional phase and gradually stabilize [1][9] - **Small and Mid-Cap Stock Trends**: Small-cap stocks with high valuations and growth potential have seen significant gains, but the sustainability of this trend is uncertain. AI is identified as a major industry trend, although current data from listed companies does not reflect this [1][10] - **Focus on Domestic Demand**: There is a preference for investing in China's domestic demand sectors, including consumer and core consumer assets, while also considering industrial capital goods and key stocks like banks and insurance [1][11] - **Market Sentiment on Growth Stocks**: The market sentiment is leaning towards a volatile structural shift, favoring heavyweight stocks while maintaining caution towards small and mid-cap growth stocks due to their lower expected sustainability and volatility resistance [1][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of various markets, with a strong emphasis on the need for policy adjustments in response to external pressures and internal economic conditions [1][7][11]