世界银行11日在北京发布最新一期中国经济简报，相较上期简报，对2025年中国经济增速预期上调0.4 个百分点。世行方面表示，中国政府更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策支撑了国内消费和投 资。同时，中国出口市场更加多元化，为保持出口韧性提供了支撑。 从经济增长看，今年前三季度中国GDP同比增长5.2%，放眼全球，这一经济增速在主要经济体中名列 前茅。从外贸形势看，在前期贸易冲突等外部压力下，中国积极施策，为外贸发展提供新支持，货物贸 易进出口已连续10个月保持增长。从经济新动能看，今年以来，中国高技术领域投资较快增长，新能 源、新材料、人工智能等领域投资不断扩大，投资质效不断提升，也有力支撑经济稳定运行。 国际货币基金组织(IMF)也为中国经济投出"信任票"。IMF10日在北京表示，尽管面临多重冲击，中国 经济仍展现出显著韧性。IMF预计2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》 上调0.2个百分点，上调经济增长预期的主要原因是中国采取了值得欢迎的宏观经济刺激措施，并且中 国出口面临的关税低于预期水平。 "看好中国"已成为知名外资机构的普遍共识。近期，高盛、德意志银行、摩根士丹利等外 ...

【行情资讯】 1、商业航天加速"出海"，此前宣布 IPO 辅导的中科宇航旗下力箭一号精准送三颗国际用户卫星入轨； 2、国家药监局局长李利：将审评资源充分向"全球新"的原创性产品和突破"卡脖子"技术的国产替 代产品倾斜； 3、万科首个展期债券"22 万科 MTN004"的债权人大会今日召开，将讨论债券展期事宜； 文字早评 2025/12/11 星期四 4、Meta 全力转向闭源模型 新模型 Avocado 或于明年春季推出。 宏观金融类 期指基差比例： 股指 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 112.790 ，环比变化 0.18%；T 主力合约收于 108.030 ，环比变化 0.05%；TF 主力合约收于 105.825 ，环比变化 0.04%；TS 主力合约收于 102.456 ，环比变化 0.03%。 消息方面：1、中国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，预期 0.7%，前值 0.2%。11 月 PPI 同比下降 2.2%，预期降 2%，前值降 2.1%。2、IMF 预计，中国经济在 2025 年和 2026 年将分别增长 5.0%和 4.5%。相较 10 月《世 界经济展望》，上述预测值分别上调了 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economy shows resilience, with the IMF predicting growth rates of 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, up 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [2][16] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%, and will start a monthly short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion from December 12 [3][14] - The Asian Development Bank raised the regional economic growth forecast for 2025 to 5.1% and slightly increased the 2026 forecast to 4.6% [17] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, social financing scale increment was 816.1 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but up from 1412 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month; PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year, down from a 2.1% decline in the previous month [1][2] Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's November CPI was in line with expectations, and the increase was mainly driven by the change of food prices from decline to rise. PPI was slightly lower than expected, with a 0.1% month - on - month increase [2] - The Fed cut interest rates and will start a short - term Treasury purchase plan. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the margin and price limit for silver futures contracts [2][3] - The container shipping index (European route) futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange mostly rose, with the February contract leading the gain [3] Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose due to the Fed's interest rate cut. Indonesia may impose export tariffs on gold. Copper production at some Chilean mines changed in October [5] - As of December 10, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF decreased. The inventory of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed significantly on December 9 [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Argentina approved a copper mining project, and the copper production of Escondida Mine in Chile increased in October [8] Energy and Chemicals - The seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker by the US increased short - term supply risks, and the Fed's interest rate cut pushed up oil prices, but global oversupply limited the increase [9] - EIA adjusted its forecast for US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. US natural gas inventory decreased last week [9] - Saudi companies will develop oil and gas fields in Syria, and an Iraqi oil field resumed production [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will launch a consumption promotion activity for agricultural products. US soybean crushing volume in October and Malaysia's palm oil situation were reported [11][12] Financial News Compilation Open Market - On December 10, the central bank conducted 189.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan [13] Key News - The Fed cut interest rates, started a short - term Treasury purchase plan, and the dot - plot predicted further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [14][15] - China's November CPI rose and PPI fell. The IMF and ADB raised their economic growth forecasts for China and Asia respectively [16][17] - The Ministry of Finance will renew 750 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds and issued 7 billion yuan of RMB Treasury bonds in Hong Kong [17][18] - Some banks' business operations and market - related events such as the launch of green foreign debt business in Shenzhen and the release of a new CDS index were reported [19][20] Bond Market Review - China's bond market continued to be warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and Treasury bond futures rising. Money market rates mostly declined [23][24][25] - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields fell [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [29] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB's recent appreciation is due to internal economic fundamentals and external factors, which will have an impact on exports and imports [30] - Huatai Securities believes that the global central bank's policy stance may diverge in the next two weeks, and the global manufacturing cycle is expected to recover [30] Today's Reminder - On December 11, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, have payments made, and have principal and interest repaid [31][32] Stock Market Key News - A - shares recovered after hitting the bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose. Real estate stocks rose in the afternoon [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose, with property stocks performing strongly. Southbound funds had a net outflow [33]

1、外媒称中方正考虑限制获取英伟达H200芯片，外交部回应 12月10日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有外媒记者提问，据《金融时报》报道，虽然 美国总统特朗普已经决定允许将英伟达的H200芯片出售给中国，但中方正在考虑限制获取该芯片。中 方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆回应，我们昨天已就有关问题做出了回应。具体的情况，建议向中方的主管 部门进行询问。（北京日报） 2、中国公民未对中日之间的危机产生共鸣？ 中方回应 12月10日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有记者提问，我们看到有越来越多的中国游客 自从中日之间的危机开始之后不再前往日本，但是仍有中国消费者非常青睐日本的品牌，这是否是表明 中国的公民并未对中日之间的危机产生共鸣？还是说中国政府的反制措施尚未涉及餐饮和零售业？中方 对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆回应，我不知道你的消息来源是什么。关于当前中日关系，中方已经多次阐明 了严正立场。（北京日报） 3、宇树和智元高价争抢春晚赞助席位？智元机器人回应：不是真的 12月10日，据3报道，一批具身智能公司正在竞逐2026年总台马年春晚的赞助商资格。目前，智元 和宇树的竞争最为激烈。为了争夺最大赞助商的权益，智元机 ...

IMF预计，中国经济在2025年和2026年将分别增长5.0%和4.5%。相较10月《世界经济展望》，上 述预测值分别上调了0.2个和0.3个百分点，主要原因是中国采取了值得欢迎的宏观经济刺激措施，且 美方对华关税低于预期水平。 来源｜葛唯尔 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）完成了2025年中国第四条款磋商访问。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）完成了2025年中国第四条款磋商访问。IMF预计，中国经济在 2025年和2026年将分别增长5.0%和4.5%。相较10月《世界经济展望》，上述预测值分别上调了0.2个和 0.3个百分点，主要原因是中国采取了值得欢迎的宏观经济刺激措施，且美方对华关税低于预期水平。 ...