在聚焦美国经济时，朱世伟称其呈现"弱而不悲"的特征——就业市场小幅弱化支撑美联储重启降息预 期，但通胀数据表现平稳以及美联储的近期表态，又使得降息预期有所降温。"美国当前最大的矛盾在 于美债、美股、美元的'不可能三角'——既要维持美元强势以支撑债务扩张，又要应对美债规模扩张对 信用的侵蚀，同时还需防范美股下跌引发的居民财富缩水，这让美元走势陷入两难。"他说。 谈及国内经济，朱世伟认为，信贷充裕、利率持续下行推动了金融条件优化，直接融资占比提升实现了 融资结构转型。"中央加杠杆、地方被动加杠杆、居民去杠杆"的当前格局，导致消费端表现弱于投资与 生产端，但积极信号正在显现——税收收入增速反超非税收入增速，这一历史经验中预示着经济复苏的 指标值得投资者保持关注；核心CPI持续上行，10月CPI重回零轴以上，通缩压力逐步收敛；工业企业 利润阶段性改善，也为股市业绩提供支撑。不过，房地产市场仍延续疲软态势，基建的托底作用仍持 续，消费则从上半年高位有所回落。 展望商品市场，朱世伟表示，尽管宏观宽松奠定了牛市基础，但产业供需与市场情绪仍偏悲观，导致不 同品种走势差异显著。 其中，贵金属长期牛市逻辑明确，美债规模扩张为黄金 ...

近日，"第十九届深圳国际金融博览会暨2025中国金融机构年会"在深圳举行。在"中国期货业年会"分论 坛上，永安期货（600927）北京研究院负责人朱世伟在主题演讲中表示，当前全球宏观经济呈现疲软基 本面与宽松政策面相互博弈的格局，商品市场分化特征显著，贵金属、部分有色金属等品种已步入牛市 初期，但整体市场的回暖需等待政策效果传导与产业供需改善的共振。 历史经验显示，美国降息后周期及国内M2同比领先效应(通常领先商品1~4个季度)显现时，商品或全面 回暖。朱世伟预计，未来两三个季度有望看到宏观层面改善，并建议投资者关注政策指引与产业"反内 卷"措施，重点把握贵金属、有色等优势品种出现的机会。 其中，贵金属长期牛市逻辑明确，美债规模扩张为黄金提供长期支撑，不过以2022年黄金与美元第二次 脱钩时为基准，则显示当下价格已处于高位。有色金属方面，铝因产能天花板限制，库存自2017年起持 续出现年度级下降，供需格局优于铜。铜获新能源、电气化需求支撑但短期震荡，锡受益于人工智能短 期强势，镍、锌需防范市场波动风险。在能源与黑色品种方面，原油的需求缓慢增长，但供应端增产的 压力压制其上行空间；黑色产业链的利润与价格处于低位 ...

刚刚过去的11月，是一次市场强弱的检验期，如果延续了强势，后面就可能会持续强势，如果弱势，后市就会需要面临调整。从11月整个市场的走势来 看，市场暂时没有出现新的合适的理由来延续新高。 在过去的几个月里，中国的指数可以走出行情，主要是靠科技板块的延续。现阶段市场出现了两极分化的现象，科技有预期，但是估值也很高了，其他板 块虽然价格低估值低，但是缺少再涨的预期。 所以市场在这里调整。 我们在11月的时候一直在等PPI的改善，因为这是支撑后市立马变盘的关键因素，这一点如果兑现了，其他低估值的板块就会涨上来，从而再次带动市场 指数的延续。但是在11月，我们没有等来这个，宏观经济没有出现改善，故事在现阶段就比较难继续往下讲了。 首先，我们认为行情是不会在这里贸然结束的，因为下方的支撑还很强，但是向上走，市场暂时也没有合适的理由。 后续如果再走，基本上两条路径，一个是其他低估值板块跟上行情，也就是宏观经济需要改善，或者改善预期出现，带动整个指数上行。第二条路径，就 是科技在这里调整，价格再下一些，同时后续的业绩再增长兑现，使得整个科技板块估值再稍微合理一些，然后炒下一波。 目前来看两种都有可能，但是不管是哪一种，这大概 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen accelerated upward momentum since late June, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, reaching a ten-year high, driven by improved market sentiment and increased foreign institutional interest in Chinese stocks [1]. Group 1: Market Uptrend Sustainability - The sustainability of the current market rally is a key topic among institutions, with overseas entities attributing the rise to several factors, including improved macroeconomic expectations and targeted consumption policies [4]. - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields have been on the rise since June, indicating a more optimistic outlook among investors, which has facilitated a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market [4]. - The focus on micro-level structural highlights, such as AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and smart driving, is seen as crucial for supporting overall market profitability [7]. - Significant inflows of incremental capital have contributed to liquidity, with long-term funds like insurance capital entering the market, resulting in over 1 trillion yuan in new capital [10]. - Upcoming policy catalysts, such as the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and the next five-year growth plan, are expected to provide clearer insights into the "anti-involution" policy and its implications for economic rebalancing [10]. Group 2: "Anti-Involution" Policy Focus - The "anti-involution" policy has gained significant attention from foreign institutions, with discussions centered on its timing, similarities and differences with the 2016-2018 supply-side reform, and key areas of focus [14]. - The policy aims to alleviate supply chain financing risks, curb excessive investment expansion, enhance product quality, and optimize resource allocation, thereby strengthening the long-term resilience of the Chinese economy [14]. - The current economic recovery foundation is still fragile, leading to expectations that the impact of this policy on economic growth may be less significant than that of the previous supply-side reform [15]. Group 3: Foreign Investor Sentiment - Foreign investor interest in the Chinese stock market has reached a near-high level, driven by factors such as the need to diversify risks from the U.S. market and the potential for renminbi appreciation [16]. - In July, net inflows from foreign capital into the Chinese stock market accelerated to $2.7 billion, up from $1.2 billion in June, primarily led by passive funds [17]. - As of late July, passive funds had accumulated a total inflow of $11 billion into the Chinese stock market for the year, surpassing the $7 billion for the entire year of 2023 [17]. - The trend of capital inflows has continued into August, with hedge funds net buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks [19]. - Despite the recovery in foreign capital sentiment, active funds remain underweight in their allocation to Chinese stocks, indicating potential for further inflows [21].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with cautious purchasing behavior from major cities, while macroeconomic factors show slight improvement, but uncertainties remain [2]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices are expected to stabilize with 1.4% nickel ore FOB around 40, while domestic nickel iron prices remain weak and stable, with mainstream transactions at 940-950 yuan per nickel [1][2]. - The supply of nickel ore is tight due to seasonal impacts, and the price of chromium ore is supported by a shortage of spot sources [2]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to be 3.4899 million tons in May, a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month but an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [1]. - The production of 300 series stainless steel is expected to be 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1]. Inventory - Social inventory data remains stable, with a slight decrease in warehouse receipts recently. As of May 16, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 561,800 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons week-on-week [1]. - Stainless steel futures inventory is at 158,715 tons, a decrease of 970 tons week-on-week [1]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is slightly improved due to macroeconomic developments, but supply-demand imbalances persist, leading to ongoing pressure on the market [2]. - The overall market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with a reference range of 12,600 to 13,200 [3].