Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is steadily losing momentum, as indicated by various financial institutions and private sector data, despite the suspension of official data releases due to government shutdown [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Market Analysis - Multiple financial giants, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Carlyle Group, have independently confirmed a cooling labor market, providing critical insights beyond official data [2]. - Goldman Sachs' labor market tightness index has returned to levels seen in 2015, suggesting a more challenging environment for job seekers [2]. - Bank of America has identified new evidence of rising unemployment and slowing job growth through analysis of client salary and deposit data [2]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Job Growth Slowdown - Goldman Sachs attributes a slowdown of approximately 100,000 jobs to three main factors: reduced immigration, decreased government hiring, and rising macroeconomic uncertainty [3][4]. - Immigration contributions to monthly labor growth have declined from 90,000 at the beginning of the year to 40,000 by August, indicating a slowdown in labor supply growth [4]. - Government hiring has decreased, leading to a reduction in overall salary growth by about 30,000 jobs, compounded by a significant drop in federal contract spending [4]. Group 3: Economic Uncertainty and Its Impact - Companies are increasingly cautious in hiring decisions due to macroeconomic risks and trade uncertainties, with some firms cutting back on recruitment as a cost-saving measure in response to tariffs [5]. - Although tariffs have a limited direct impact on hiring, the associated uncertainty correlates with a decline in overall employment growth in affected industries [5]. Group 4: AI's Limited Impact - Despite discussions around AI replacing human jobs, current evidence suggests that AI's influence on the broader labor market is minimal, with specific sectors like marketing and design experiencing localized slowdowns [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish trend in gold prices, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical factors, with significant expectations for future price increases [1][2] - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose to $3,391.90 per ounce, marking a 0.99% increase, influenced by a sell-off in the U.S. stock market and new technical buying [1] - UBS has raised its gold price target for Q1 2026 by $100 to $3,600 per ounce, anticipating the highest global demand for gold bars since 2011 in 2025 [2] Group 2 - The silver futures for September delivery increased by 1.49%, reaching $37.890 per ounce, reflecting a similar upward trend in precious metals [3] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated a cautious stance on monetary policy, with an 82% probability of a rate cut in September, which may influence gold and silver prices [1]

Macro Economic Risk Assessment - The macroeconomic situation significantly impacts the US stock market, with GDP growth being a key indicator of economic performance. Strong economic growth typically leads to increased corporate profits and rising stock prices, while a slowdown can pressure stock prices [2] - Inflation is a critical factor; moderate inflation reflects economic activity, but high inflation can increase corporate costs, compress profit margins, and potentially lead to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, negatively affecting the stock market [2] - Interest rate policies are crucial, as rate hikes can make fixed-income products more attractive, leading to capital outflows from the stock market, while rate cuts can stimulate stock market investment enthusiasm [2] Industry Risk Analysis - Different industries face varying risks in the US stock market. Cyclical industries like automotive and real estate are sensitive to economic cycles, thriving in prosperous times but facing downturns during recessions [3] - Defensive industries such as healthcare and utilities are less affected by economic fluctuations and often show stronger resilience during economic instability [3] - The technology sector, while having high growth potential, faces rapid technological changes and intense competition, which can lead to crises for companies that fall behind [3] - Emerging industries, such as renewable energy, encounter policy risks and technological maturity risks, where changes in government support or delays in technological breakthroughs can impact company performance and stock prices [3] Company Fundamental Risk Consideration - Company-level risk assessment requires a focus on financial health, including analysis of balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements. High debt ratios indicate increased financial pressure and risk of distress [4] - Unstable profitability, characterized by frequent losses or significant fluctuations, raises concerns about a company's future [4] - Management quality is vital; effective leadership can navigate market changes, while poor decision-making and internal management issues can hinder company growth and negatively affect stock prices [4] - Market competitiveness is also crucial, encompassing market share, brand influence, and comparative advantages or disadvantages against competitors, all of which impact future profitability and market value [4] Market Liquidity and Trading Risk Assessment - The US stock market is vast, but liquidity varies among stocks. Low-priced and small-cap stocks may have insufficient trading volume, leading to larger spreads and higher transaction costs, making it difficult to find buyers or sellers quickly [5] - Special trading mechanisms in the US market, such as margin trading and short selling, can amplify risks. Margin trading can lead to margin calls if stock prices drop significantly, potentially resulting in forced liquidation if additional funds are not provided [5] - Short selling carries risks as well; if stock prices rise instead of falling, short sellers can incur substantial losses [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the stock market remains stable despite the impending end of the tariff suspension period on July 9, with analysts expecting President Trump to extend the deadline based on his historical pattern of retreating from threats [1][4][6] - The S&P 500 index recently achieved its best quarterly performance since December 2023, surpassing the 6200-point mark, while the Nasdaq 100 index recorded its best quarterly performance since March 2023, driven primarily by technology stocks [1][3] - Institutional investors, who had been cautious since April, are beginning to increase their exposure to higher-risk areas of the market, reflecting a growing confidence among traders [2][3] Group 2 - The "smart money" is entering the market as earnings expectations stabilize following a significant drop in April, with systematic strategy funds increasing their stock risk exposure despite remaining underweight compared to historical averages [3][4] - Barclays' global equity strategist highlights positive factors supporting the economy, including regulatory easing in banking, continued investment in AI by large tech companies, and a $3.3 trillion tax and spending bill passed by the Senate [4][6] - Despite the optimism, there are concerns about the potential for high tariffs to impact costs for companies and consumers in the future, indicating that market risks have not entirely dissipated [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term oil price is mainly affected by geopolitical situations, with high uncertainty and expected to be highly volatile. The macro - risk is difficult to resolve due to the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential inflation pressure in the US. [3] - For asphalt, the cost side remains high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The short - term price is expected to be supported by the oil price, but the asphalt - crude oil crack spread continues to decline. [7] - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, but the sharp rise in oil prices provides strong support for the PG price. [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil has support from geopolitics and peak - season power generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a recovering supply and weak downstream demand. [12] - The natural gas price in the US is expected to gradually rise due to increased demand, and the European natural gas price has soared due to geopolitical tensions. [14] - For PX, the supply increases significantly in June, and the profit is compressed. The supply is expected to decrease in early July due to maintenance plans. [16] - PTA's supply - demand margin is expected to weaken in July, with the downstream in the seasonal consumption off - season. [17] - Ethylene glycol maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in June. [19] - Short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported in June, with stable downstream start - up. [21] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the production enterprises' losses are expanding, and some enterprises may stop production later. [23] - The supply of styrene is expected to increase slightly, and the medium - term supply - demand margin is expected to weaken, but the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to low inventory. [24] - The supply - demand of polyolefins is expected to be weak, and short - term observation is recommended, with a mid - term idea of shorting on rebounds. [28] - PVC has a long - term supply - surplus pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, while maintaining a short - on - rebound idea. Caustic soda's 09 contract is expected to be weak, with a mid - term bearish view. [32] - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern is intensifying, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended. [34] - Glass is expected to have a weak price in the short - term, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended, paying attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair. [36] - The log spot market still faces challenges in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended, paying attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads. [39] - The prices of corrugated paper and box - board paper are expected to continue to decline, with weak market transactions. [40] - The double - offset paper market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price maintains a low - level fluctuation. [42] - For pulp, the short - term observation of the SP 09 contract is recommended, paying attention to the support at the Monday low. [44] - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, and hold relevant spreads. [47] - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 08 contract, paying attention to the pressure at the Monday high, and hold relevant spreads. [49] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $71.77, down $1.21/barrel (- 1.66%); Brent2508 contract settled at $73.23, down $1.00/barrel (- 1.35%); SC main contract 2508 rose to 529.2 yuan/barrel and then fell to 523 yuan/barrel at night. The Brent main - second - line spread was $1.39/barrel [1] - **Related News**: Iran expressed willingness to return to negotiations and hope for a cease - fire, but the US signaled a possible entry into the Middle - East battlefield, increasing geopolitical risks. OPEC lowered the forecast of non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Brent's intraday oscillation range is expected to be $72 - 77/barrel. Consider gasoline and diesel crack spreads weakening, and observe options [4] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3605 points at night (- 1.10%), BU2512 closed at 3440 points at night (- 1.29%). Spot prices varied by region [5] - **Related News**: In different regions, asphalt prices showed different trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and weather [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, weakening asphalt - crude oil spreads, and observing options [7] Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4342 at night (- 0.41%), PG2508 closed at 4258 at night (- 0.35%). Spot prices varied by region [7] - **Related News**: Different regions had different price trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a bullish bias for single - side trading [10] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 3200 at night (- 1.42%), LU08 closed at 3758 at night (- 2.49%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads were given [10] - **Related News**: Russian fuel exports had different trends in different regions, and Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 16 - month high in May [10][11] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances, and go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread on dips [13] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: No specific market review data provided - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory increased more than expected, and European natural gas prices soared due to geopolitical tensions and high - temperature demand [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the HH contract on dips and be bullish on the TTF contract [14] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6758 and then at 6694 at night. Spot prices and PXN were given [15] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [16] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4766 and then at 4724 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [16] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [16] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [17] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4374 and then at 4336 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [18] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, port inventory decreased, and some Iranian devices stopped [18][19] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [20] Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6510 and then at 6448 at night. Spot prices were given [21] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [21] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5980 and then at 5926 at night. Spot prices were given [22] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable with partial small increases [23] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7589 and then at 7422 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [24] - **Related News**: Benzene - ethylene port inventory decreased, and upstream pure - benzene port inventory increased [24] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices continued to rise, and PP spot prices varied by region [26] - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed, and producer inventory decreased [26][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, short on rebounds in the mid - term, observe spreads and options [29] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices in some regions decreased [29] - **Related News**: Some prices of raw materials and products changed, and some enterprises adjusted prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe PVC in the short - term, short on rebounds in the long - term; be bearish on caustic soda's 09 contract, hold 8 - 10 reverse spreads, and observe options [33] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1174 yuan/ton and then at 1169 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [33][34] - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [35] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 980 yuan/ton and then at 978 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [35][36] - **Related News**: The glass market was weak, and some macro - data were unfavorable [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [37] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices in some regions were stable, and the main contract price rose [38] - **Related News**: Imported log shipping costs were stable, and arrival volumes in some ports changed [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads, and observe options [39] Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices mostly remained stable with some declines in the South [39][40] - **Related News**: Market transactions were weak, raw material prices decreased, and production loads decreased [40] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper market was stable, and production and inventory data were given [41][42] - **Related News**: The market showed a weak supply - demand pattern [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 09 contract showed a small oscillation [42] - **Related News**: The papermaking industry was in the off - season, and some paper enterprises tried to raise prices [43][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP 09 contract, pay attention to the support at the Monday low, and observe spreads [44] Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: RU, NR, and BR contract prices changed, and spot prices were given [44][45] - **Related News**: China's auto production and sales increased in May [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [47] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR contract price decreased, and related spot prices were given [47] - **Related News**: A tire company had development plans [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 08 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [49]

Core Viewpoint - The report from BNP Paribas indicates that the urgency of the Trump administration to finalize trade agreements has reduced macroeconomic risks, consequently decreasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has significantly supported gold prices, which have risen nearly 23% this year [1] - Despite ongoing uncertainties, the market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook on gold [1] Group 2: Price Forecast Adjustments - BNP Paribas has revised its forecast for the average price of gold on the Comex, lowering the third-quarter expectation from $3940 per ounce to $3685 per ounce [1] - The fourth-quarter forecast has also been adjusted down from $3975 per ounce to $3850 per ounce [1]