期货研究报告 | 商品研究 全球流动性趋松，实物资产价值重估 ——招商期货大类资产配置周报 （ 2025年12月22日-2025年12月26日） • 招商期货 赵嘉瑜（Z0016776）马 芸（Z0018708） (+86)13686866941 徐世伟（Z0001836） 游 洋（Z0019846） 吕 杰（Z0012822） 安 婧（Z0014623） 马幼元（Z0018356） • 联系电话： • 邮箱：zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn 2025年12月28日 目录 contents 01 核心观点 02 量化分析 03 宏观概览 04 中观数据 05 板块观点 01 核心观点 市场逻辑 一、我们看好年初的股票行情，有以下五个方面的原因：一是日元加息的靴子落地，12月弥漫的日元套息交易担忧基本告一段落，2025年1月的加息中港股、A股走出"加息 前承压，加息后上涨"的走势；二是美联储从为期近三年的缩表转向"技术性扩表"，下任主席大概率是特朗普需要的"超级鸽派"；三是国内年终结算结束，年初险资等机构有望进 场；四是国内财政在"十五五"规划开局之年以及当下经济增速放缓的背景下有望靠前发力； ...

证券研究报告 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 共识开始凝聚，共同见证历史 —有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 52 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 铜精矿长单加工费敲定，冶炼端悲观预期 | 2025-12-26 | | --- | --- | | 靴子 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a transition towards a bull market, driven by recovering demand for physical assets amidst supply constraints, particularly in the copper market [3][9][12] - Recent disruptions in copper supply, notably from the Grasberg mine, are expected to create price elasticity for future manufacturing demand recovery [9][12] - The report highlights a shift from a focus on financial assets to physical assets, indicating a potential new cycle for resource commodities [4][12] Group 2: Key Companies and Industries - **Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH)** is positioned for growth due to increased overseas demand and domestic infrastructure projects, with a favorable outlook for its core business [14] - **Non-Banking Financial: Sichuan Shuangma (000935.SZ)** is transitioning to an innovative drug CDMO model, with significant growth potential from its investment projects and pharmaceutical capacity expansion [15][16] - **Food and Beverage: Angel Yeast (600298.SH)** is expected to benefit from overseas expansion and improved domestic demand, with a favorable cost environment [17] - **Transportation: Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH)** is set to gain from industry supply-demand improvements and reduced interest expenses, with positive short-term catalysts from seasonal demand [18] - **Retail: Gu Ming (1364.HK)** is leveraging a unique store expansion strategy in the competitive milk tea market, with significant growth potential in coffee products [19] - **Media and Internet: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK)** is integrating AI across its ecosystem, enhancing its competitive edge and driving growth through high-margin businesses [20][21] - **Electronics: Lante Optics (688127.SH)** is experiencing strong demand in various sectors, with supply constraints on production equipment [22] - **Computing: Hikvision (002415.SZ)** is seeing a recovery in operating quality and profitability, with a focus on AI-driven products [23] - **Pharmaceuticals: Innovent Biologics (9969.HK)** is a leader in hematology and autoimmune therapies, with significant growth potential from its core products [24] - **Defense and Military: Guobo Electronics (688375.SH)** is positioned to benefit from growth in military and satellite internet sectors, with a strong market outlook [25]