10 月市场观点：假期要闻概览与业绩线索指引 1、国庆假期要闻概览 假期居民旅游出行数据旺盛，且跨境旅游消费成为重要亮点，院线票房表现相对 偏弱；海外多国政局再添变数，美国政府时隔七年再度"停摆"、法国总理请辞、 日本首位女首相或将诞生，美、日、欧货币与财政政策走向不确定性增多。总体 看，海外政局变数与美联储降息预期波动更多主导资产定价，权益资产普遍震荡 收涨，黄金与比特币新高（详见正文）。 2、三季报业绩线索梳理 综合工业企业利润、中观数据等跟踪，预计三季报值得关注的方向主要涉及四类 （详见正文）：一是受益于外部降息和新兴需求拉动的有色金属（贵金属、工业金 属、小金属），二是反内卷催化下实现价格企稳的钢铁、煤炭、化工、光伏等；三 是延续稳健量增的汽车、锂电、电力、物流等；四是海内外需求共振驱动的 AI 条 线（算力相关）。 3、月度市场回顾： 证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 10 09 年 月 日 投资策略 9 月以来，海外降息如期落地且连续降息预期升温，黄金重启上行并创历史新高， 港股明显补涨，A 股表现相对偏弱。月度级别看，交投情绪重返合理区间，两融入 场放缓，ETF 则 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has rapidly risen, reaching a 10-year high, with the index stabilizing above 3800 points and approaching 3900 and 4000 points, indicating strong market participation and a healthy "volume-price rise" pattern [1] - The current bull market is considered to be in the nurturing phase, driven by valuation recovery, with the potential for further upward movement being limited as the market approaches historical highs [1] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.57, which is at the 100% historical percentile for the past 3 years, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 1.51, also at high historical percentiles [1] - The asymmetry in upward and downward momentum suggests a higher risk of correction as valuations continue to recover [1] Economic Drivers - The core of the long-term upward trend in the A-share market relies on substantial improvements in corporate profitability, which is currently under pressure due to weak macroeconomic demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [9] - Domestic economic stimulus policies and the recovery of overseas demand are crucial for driving demand-side improvements, while supply-side efforts must focus on optimizing industrial structures and eliminating excess capacity [9] Policy Impact - Recent macroeconomic policies have shown effectiveness, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing the annual target of 5% [11] - Policy measures include adjustments in real estate regulations and direct subsidies to households, aimed at transitioning the economy towards consumption and service-driven growth [11] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and anticipated interest rate cuts in major economies are expected to support a recovery in manufacturing, which is sensitive to financing costs [12] - The potential for increased export demand from overseas markets could provide significant support for the profitability of A-share listed companies [12] Supply-Side Developments - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to improve profit margins for companies by reducing excessive competition and promoting healthier market dynamics [15] - Historical precedents suggest that supply-side reforms can lead to significant improvements in profitability for key industries [15] Profitability Trends - Recent data indicates signs of improving corporate profitability, with industrial profits showing a narrowing decline and expectations for positive growth in A-share earnings after four years of decline [16] - Non-financial listed companies are projected to see revenue and net profit growth of approximately 1.6% and 8.3%, respectively [16] Investment Strategy - The overall bullish outlook remains, but the market may experience a "three steps forward, one step back" pattern during the nurturing phase of the bull market [19] - Focus on high-growth sectors such as robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and artificial intelligence, while also considering cyclical sectors like food and beverage, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals for potential investment opportunities [19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant patience from investors, driven by monetary policy support and a shift of funds from savings to equities [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 25, the A-share market has surged, approaching a new high of 3900 points, with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan [2]. - Since June 23, the Chinese stock market has shown strength for over two months, with valuations reaching new highs and sectors rotating upward [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China has implemented over a trillion yuan in reverse repos and restarted interest rate cuts, lowering key rates by 10 basis points [2][3]. - These monetary policies have effectively reduced market interest rates, impacting institutional investors and leading to a concentration of investments in the equity market [2]. Group 3: Fund Flow Dynamics - As of July, domestic residents' deposits reached 162 trillion yuan, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating an early stage of funds moving to the stock market [3]. - The ongoing asset shortage in the market limits investment choices, suggesting that the current market strength lacks robust support from corporate fundamentals [3]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - The current market trend reflects a risk-averse behavior among investors, with both insurance funds and household savings seeking stable returns [4]. - The influx of risk-averse capital into the equity market necessitates institutional safeguards to prevent mismatches between risk appetite and risk assets [4][5]. Group 5: Future Market Strategies - To support the transition of savings into the equity market, it is crucial to strengthen the economic fundamentals of the stock market through reforms that enhance market freedom and transparency [4]. - Long-term institutional reforms are needed to improve market attractiveness and ensure fair competition, including better information disclosure and protection of investor rights [4][5].

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume and margin financing balance, both surpassing 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, marking a notable shift in market dynamics [1][3][12] - Historical analysis shows that the occurrence of dual "2 trillion" trading days is rare, with only seven instances recorded, primarily during the 2015 leverage bull market and now in 2025, indicating a transformation in market structure [2][3][6] Trading Volume and Margin Financing - On August 14, the A-share trading volume reached 2.3 trillion yuan, while the margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, recorded at 2.055 trillion yuan [1][3] - The dual "2 trillion" phenomenon has occurred only seven times in A-share history, with the latest instances on August 13 and 14, 2025, representing the first occurrences in nearly a decade [2][3][4] Market Dynamics and Funding Sources - The current market environment is characterized by a shift from high-leverage-driven dynamics to a more mature market driven by policy coordination and fundamental improvements [6][7] - Key supporting factors for the dual "2 trillion" phenomenon include a significant migration of household savings into the equity market, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits [8][10] Future Liquidity and Investment Trends - Analysts predict a turning point for incremental capital entering the market, with a peak in household deposits and financial products maturing from late 2025 to 2026, potentially releasing substantial funds into the equity market [3][11] - The influx of foreign capital is also a critical factor, with global funds showing increased confidence in the Chinese market, as evidenced by significant net inflows into Chinese stocks and bonds [10][11] Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The increase in new A-share accounts, reaching 1.96 million in July 2025, reflects a growing investor enthusiasm driven by the market's positive performance [9][10] - The current market phase is transitioning from policy-driven expectations to a focus on earnings validation, with improving corporate performance expected to sustain market momentum [12]