2026年 度 策略： 在下一个台阶等政策，结构和分化是主旋律 分析师 金晶 分析师 周卓君 执业证书编号：S0680522030001 执业证书编号：S0680523070006 邮箱：jinjing3@gszq.com 邮箱：zhouzhuojun@gszq.com 分析师 肖依依 分析师 夏陶 执业证书编号：S0680523080005 执业证书编号：S0680524070006 邮箱：xiaoyiyi3664@gszq.com 邮箱：xiatao@gszq.com 证券研究报告|年度策略 2025 12 25 年 月 日 打造极致专业与效率 目录 2025年基本面回顾 2025年政策回顾 2 2026年统计局指标预测 3 商业回顾与展望 4 5 2026年展望与投资建议 2 1 目录 1. 2025基本面回顾 销售总量尚未企稳，拿地热度前高后低 3 1、销售：新房+二手房成交总量尚未企稳 2、拿地：土地成交在低基数上继续萎缩，土地财政承压 3、库存：狭义库存仍在高位，相对库存去化周期创新高 4、房企：强者优势延续，困难房企压力未缓 1.1销售：2025年新房成交继续收缩，销售额已回落至2015年水平 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][30]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate data continues to bottom out, while infrastructure investment is expected to gain momentum in the second half of 2025 [11][17]. - Cement and glass production showed a slight narrowing in decline, with cement production down 4.3% year-on-year and glass production down 5.2% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Cement and Glass Production - In the first half of 2025, national cement production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 5.3% in June, slightly better than the 8.1% decline in May [6][9]. - National glass production saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% in the first half of 2025, with a monthly decline of 4.5% in June, also showing improvement from May's 5.7% decline [9][12]. Downstream Investment Situation - In June 2025, the year-on-year changes in commodity housing sales, construction, new starts, and completion areas were -6.5%, 4.8%, -9.5%, and -2.2%, respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in new starts and completions compared to May [11][12]. - The broad inventory de-stocking cycle in June 2025 was 5.31 years, unchanged from the previous month [14]. - Real estate investment and infrastructure investment in June 2025 showed year-on-year changes of -12.4% and 5.3%, respectively, with real estate investment's decline widening [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is expected to reach a turning point in housing prices between 2026 and 2027, contrary to the prevailing pessimistic sentiment among the public [1][2]. Group 1: Market Recovery Phases - The recovery of the real estate market is anticipated to occur in three phases: 1. Transaction volume stabilization by 2025 due to continuous government support [3][4]. 2. Price stabilization in 2026 as supply and demand reach a balance [4]. 3. Investment recovery post-2026 with increased land purchases and new construction [4]. Group 2: City-Specific Turning Points - Different cities will experience varying timelines for market stabilization: - First-tier cities are expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 due to favorable policies and strong demand [5]. - Strong second-tier cities, such as Hangzhou and Chengdu, are projected to stabilize between 2026 and 2027 [5]. - Third and fourth-tier cities may not see stabilization until 2027 or later due to long inventory cycles and population outflows [6][7]. Group 3: Indicators for Price Trends - Traditional indicators like price-to-income ratios and rental yields are deemed ineffective for predicting turning points; instead, the focus should be on supply-demand dynamics and inventory de-stocking cycles [8][14]. - The current inventory de-stocking cycles in key cities indicate a potential for price stabilization, while cities with longer cycles may face continued pressure on prices [16]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The overall recovery of the Chinese real estate market is expected to be challenging, with only a few core cities likely to present structural opportunities [19]. - The market's sensitivity to policy changes has diminished, and the focus should shift to city-specific supply-demand relationships to gauge future price movements [16].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has stabilized since 2025, with new supply being restrained, leading to a weak recovery in transactions and a significant reduction in inventory levels, particularly in certain cities facing severe supply constraints [1][3][31]. Group 1: Inventory and Depletion Cycle - As of April 2025, the narrow inventory across 50 cities has decreased to 30.557 million square meters, reflecting a 1% month-on-month decline and a 10% year-on-year decline [3][4]. - The depletion cycle has shown a downward trend, reaching 20.98 months by the end of April 2025, with a 0.5% month-on-month decrease and a 6% year-on-year decrease [4][7]. - Inventory levels in first-tier cities remain stable, while second and third-tier cities have seen a reduction, with depletion cycles in first and second-tier cities dropping below 20 months, while third and fourth-tier cities still face cycles of around 30 months [7][31]. Group 2: Freshness of Inventory - Approximately 54% of the inventory consists of supply from 2020 to 2023, with first-tier cities exhibiting significantly higher freshness compared to second and third-tier cities [10][14]. - Cities like Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have a high proportion of fresh inventory, while cities like Wuxi are burdened with older stock, with nearly 30% of inventory being from over ten years ago [17][32]. Group 3: Area Segmentation - The primary inventory is concentrated in the 100-140 square meter range, with 100-120 square meters and 120-140 square meters accounting for 24% and 20% of the total inventory, respectively [20][23]. - Smaller units (below 70 square meters) and larger units (above 180 square meters) have seen a decrease in inventory share, with the 70 square meters and below segment dropping to around 8% by April 2025 [22][24]. Group 4: Housing Type - Three-bedroom units dominate the inventory, making up 52% of the total, while four-bedroom units account for 28% [27][28]. - The inventory pressure for two-bedroom units is notably higher in second and third-tier cities compared to first-tier cities, where three and four-bedroom units are more prevalent [28][31]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Three categories of cities are identified as facing significant short-term supply constraints: 1. Hot cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu with low inventory and short depletion cycles [31][32]. 2. Second and third-tier cities with high old inventory and long depletion cycles, such as Hohhot and Wuxi [32]. 3. Cities with mismatched supply and demand, like Guangzhou and Dalian, where inventory structures do not align with transaction structures [35].

Core Insights - The real estate market in various cities is experiencing a phenomenon of "increased volume and decreased prices" [1][3] - In Guangzhou, the second-hand housing transaction volume surged by 17.73% year-on-year in May 2025, with a total of 46,722 units sold in the first five months, also reflecting a growth of over 17% [1] - Despite the increase in transaction volume, the average price of second-hand homes in Guangzhou has been declining, with a notable drop in core areas [3] Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is no longer a "seller's market," with increased inventory leading to price reductions [3][7] - In cities like Xi'an, the transaction volume reached historical highs, but the listing volume surged to 151,000 units, causing prices to revert to 2019 levels [3] - The inventory turnover period in many cities exceeds 18 months, indicating significant market pressure [8] Regional Variations - In Chengdu, the listing volume exceeds 160,000 units, but core district properties still maintain liquidity, while older properties in suburban areas struggle to attract buyers [4] - In Mianyang, older properties have seen prices drop to 3,066 yuan per square meter, reflecting a significant decline [5] Emerging Trends - The market is shifting towards a "stock housing era," with second-hand transactions in 30 key cities reaching 59% of total sales by 2024 [11] - Price differentiation is intensifying, with new properties in core areas maintaining value while older suburban properties depreciate [13][14] - Policy adjustments, such as potential interest rate cuts and increased public housing supply, may further impact the market dynamics [15] Recommendations for Buyers - Focus on core area new properties, as they demonstrate stronger resilience against price declines [9] - Monitor inventory turnover rates, as a high ratio indicates market stress [8] - Be cautious of high leverage risks, ensuring that mortgage payments do not exceed 40% of household income [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, with expectations shifting due to anticipated monetary easing starting in 2025 [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that real estate sales and prices will stabilize in the second half of 2025, attributing this to a fundamental policy shift that liberates local governments from reliance on land finance [2] - Goldman Sachs is less optimistic, forecasting a potential decline in housing prices by 20%-25% by the end of 2025, with new home prices stabilizing by the end of 2025 and second-hand home prices stabilizing in 2026 [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the real estate market requires a trend-based analysis rather than short-term fluctuations, highlighting the need for five key indicators to confirm a market bottom [4] - The first indicator is the inventory de-stocking cycle returning to a healthy range of 12-24 months, with the current cycle shortening from 31 months in 2021 to 25 months in early 2025 [5] - The second indicator is the sales area returning to a balanced value, with a historical model suggesting a reasonable annual sales volume of 1.08 billion square meters at a 65% urbanization rate [7] Group 3 - The third indicator is the stabilization of second-hand home prices, which are seen as a more accurate reflection of market prices, with a year-on-year decline of 7.3% in the first quarter across 70 cities [9] - The fourth indicator is the recovery of developer confidence, indicated by a land premium rate exceeding 8% for three consecutive months, with an average premium rate of 13.6% in the first quarter across 300 cities [11] - The fifth indicator highlights the importance of policy, noting that the impact of trade wars may shift policy focus towards exports, which could affect the overall market outlook [12]