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宏观点评:一揽子金融政策如何稳市场稳预期?-20250509
Minmetals Securities· 2025-05-09 02:43
Policy Overview - The comprehensive financial policy includes ten measures across quantity, price, and structural monetary policies, aimed at stabilizing the macro economy and market expectations[1] - The policy is the largest in recent years, reflecting a strong commitment to support economic fundamentals amid uncertainties[1] Economic Context - The policy aims to counteract the impact of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" and the macroeconomic slowdown observed since Q2 2025[1] - The first quarter GDP growth was 5.4%, but April PMI dropped to 49, indicating potential economic challenges ahead[10] Monetary Policy Details - A 50 basis point (BP) reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[9] - The policy includes a 10 BP cut in the policy interest rate, reducing the seven-day reverse repo rate from 1.5% to 1.4%[9] Structural Support - The policy allocates 1.1 trillion yuan in relending tools, with specific amounts for technology innovation (300 billion yuan), service consumption and elderly care (500 billion yuan), and agriculture and small enterprises (300 billion yuan)[16] - Structural monetary policies are designed to provide targeted liquidity to the real economy while stabilizing financial asset prices[2] Future Outlook - The central bank has indicated that there is still room for further RRR cuts, with potential future reductions of 50 BP each[16] - The overall monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with no immediate further cuts anticipated, depending on external tariff impacts and domestic economic recovery[17] Regulatory Enhancements - Financial regulatory bodies are implementing additional policies to optimize market expectations and enhance structural adjustments, moving away from a purely quantity-based approach[18] - The capital market reforms aim to create a complete ecosystem from financing to exit, supporting high-quality economic development[19]