Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed a volatile trend last week. The long - term yield fluctuated under the influence of multiple factors and finally returned to around 1.80%. The Fed restarted rate cuts in September, and there is a probability of further cuts in Q4. The domestic 9 - month LPR did not cut rates in September, and the total policy tools may not be introduced in the short term. However, the probability of bond trading and reserve requirement cuts is relatively high [1][3] - The 8 - month economic data released at the beginning of the week was weak, but the bond market's reaction was limited. News of Sino - US economic and trade talks and important articles affected market expectations. The restart of bond trading operations and the Fed's rate cut expectation drove the 10 - year Treasury yield down, while the Fed's statement and the adjustment of the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation mode also influenced the bond market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funding Rates**: DR001 fluctuated between September 15 - 19, closing at 1.46% on September 19. R001 rose and then fell, closing at 1.50%. DR007 and FR007 also showed upward - then - downward trends [8] - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放量 was 1.83 trillion yuan, with a total maturity of 1.26 trillion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 5623 billion yuan [8] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The interest - rate spread between Sino - US bonds inverted, and the inversion amplitude of long - and short - term spreads widened. The term spread of Chinese bonds slightly decreased, while that of US bonds slightly increased. The yield curve of Chinese bonds changed little, and that of US bonds shifted to the right [15][16] 2. High - frequency Real - estate Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: The average daily transaction area was 7.31 million square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was 680 units, showing a low - level volatile trend [24] - **Top Ten Cities**: The transaction data rebounded compared to last week, with an average daily transaction area of about 11.07 million square meters, an increase of 1.43 million square meters per day [25] - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The transaction volume remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 21.38 million square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was about 1914 units [26]

Policy Overview - The comprehensive financial policy includes ten measures across quantity, price, and structural monetary policies, aimed at stabilizing the macro economy and market expectations[1] - The policy is the largest in recent years, reflecting a strong commitment to support economic fundamentals amid uncertainties[1] Economic Context - The policy aims to counteract the impact of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" and the macroeconomic slowdown observed since Q2 2025[1] - The first quarter GDP growth was 5.4%, but April PMI dropped to 49, indicating potential economic challenges ahead[10] Monetary Policy Details - A 50 basis point (BP) reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[9] - The policy includes a 10 BP cut in the policy interest rate, reducing the seven-day reverse repo rate from 1.5% to 1.4%[9] Structural Support - The policy allocates 1.1 trillion yuan in relending tools, with specific amounts for technology innovation (300 billion yuan), service consumption and elderly care (500 billion yuan), and agriculture and small enterprises (300 billion yuan)[16] - Structural monetary policies are designed to provide targeted liquidity to the real economy while stabilizing financial asset prices[2] Future Outlook - The central bank has indicated that there is still room for further RRR cuts, with potential future reductions of 50 BP each[16] - The overall monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with no immediate further cuts anticipated, depending on external tariff impacts and domestic economic recovery[17] Regulatory Enhancements - Financial regulatory bodies are implementing additional policies to optimize market expectations and enhance structural adjustments, moving away from a purely quantity-based approach[18] - The capital market reforms aim to create a complete ecosystem from financing to exit, supporting high-quality economic development[19]