Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The real estate sector remains a foundational industry for the national economy, contributing 13% to GDP and directly supporting 70 million jobs in China. The potential for new residential construction is significant, estimated at 10 million to 14.9 million units annually, translating to approximately 600 to 900 million square meters of new housing [1][11] - There is a substantial demand for housing updates, with an estimated 700 million square meters needed annually due to a 2% depreciation rate on the existing housing stock of approximately 35 billion square meters [1][11] - The business model in real estate is shifting from a high-cost model to an integrated approach of product-service-operation, emphasizing quality and diverse living services over mere availability [1][11] - The capital market is expected to see an 18.4% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index in 2025, while the building materials index, excluding the fiberglass sector, is underperforming. Companies with strong alpha attributes in the real estate chain are gaining market recognition despite the overall industry not stabilizing yet [2][12] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the fundamental changes in the real estate sector in 2026, as well as the performance of companies like China Jushi, which is planning to grant stock options to employees, indicating a focus on long-term profitability [2][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The real estate sector is crucial for the economy, with a significant contribution to GDP and employment. The potential for new housing construction is substantial, and there is a large demand for housing updates [1][11] - The shift in real estate business models towards integrated services is noted, with a call for decisive policy support to avoid market and policy conflicts [1][11] Market Performance - The building materials index has decreased by 1.25%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass showing notable declines. The overall market sentiment remains cautious [2][16] - Despite the downturn, certain companies in the real estate supply chain are experiencing growth and valuation premiums, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][12] Price Changes in Building Materials - The average price of cement has decreased to 353 CNY per ton, with a national average shipment rate of 40.3%. The market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to weak demand [3][20][21] - The price of float glass has seen a slight decline, with the average price at 1121.29 CNY per ton. Inventory levels are decreasing, but overall market sentiment remains weak [3][28][42] - The fiberglass market is stable, with prices for 2400tex direct yarn remaining steady at around 3535.25 CNY per ton, indicating a balance between supply and demand [3][49][53]

2026年新年伊始，党和国家重要理论刊物《求是》刊发《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》重磅文章，在楼 市深度调整、市场预期低迷的关键节点释放明确信号。作为权威理论阵地的发声，此次表态不仅直接回 应了"房地产重要性是否下降""政策发力方向何在"等市场核心关切，更清晰划定了短期稳预期、长期促 转型的政策框架。文中诸多罕见提法与具体部署，共同构成三大核心信号，标志着改善楼市预期的关键 窗口期正式开启，为"十五五"开局之年的房地产市场平稳发展锚定了方向。 当前楼市正处于发展阶段变化的重要节点，市场预期不稳成为核心痛点。数据显示，2025年全国百城新 房去库存周期达27.4个月，三四线城市更是高达40.3个月，70城二手房价连续19个月环比下跌，商品房 销售面积同比再降7.2%。在此背景下，购房者观望情绪浓厚、房企投资信心不足、市场流动性受阻等 问题交织。《求是》此时重磅发声，正是要以权威定调打破市场博弈僵局，为行业注入"强心剂"，其释 放的三大核心信号极具针对性与指导性。 信号一：重申产业核心价值，明确金融属性定位，筑牢信心根基 此次刊文最引人关注的突破，是罕见明确房地产的"显著金融资产属性"，并强力纠正"房地产重要性下 ...