周五(数据公布当日)，英国10年期国债收益率上升3个基点，至4.71%;30年期国债收益率上升4个基点， 至5.55%。英镑对美元汇率下跌0.5%，跌至1.3492美元，创9月8日以来最低水平，且有望创下8月初以来 表现最差的一周。 彭博社跨资产策略师文·拉姆(Ven Ram)表示："里夫斯眼下的选择实属两难。政府要么被迫削减支出， 要么只能通过加税抑制经济增长。交易员们对财政政策调整早已心存警惕——仅过去一年，30年期英国 国债收益率就飙升了约100个基点，目前维持在5.55%左右，距离本世纪高点5.69%越来越近。未来几 周，随着预算案临近，交易员可能要求更高的风险溢价，这一关键点位或面临考验。" 智通财经APP获悉，英国8月预算赤字超所有预期，受此影响，英国国债(Gilts)价格走低，英镑对美元汇 率连续第三日下跌。 英国国家统计局数据显示，8月预算赤字达180亿英镑(约合244亿美元)，不仅创下五年来同期最高借贷 纪录，还较彭博社调查中经济学家给出的最高预期高出40亿英镑。本财年开局五个月，累计赤字已达 838亿英镑，较英国预算责任办公室(OBR)的预测多出114亿英镑。 这些数据凸显出，在11月财政 ...

Market Overview - Major European stock indices experienced declines, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.59% to 9142.01 points, the French CAC 40 down 0.42% to 7675.69 points, and the German DAX down 1.69% to 23630.09 points [1] - The global bond market saw widespread declines, particularly in long-term bonds, with the UK 30-year government bond yield surpassing 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, and the US 30-year bond yield reaching 4.97%, the highest since July [3] Currency Market - The British pound depreciated significantly against the US dollar, dropping over 1.5% to 1.334, with the dollar index rising by 0.49% to 98.15 [3] - The pound's exchange rate against the dollar was reported at 1.34065, reflecting a decline of 1.03% [4] Economic Concerns - The volatility in financial markets is attributed to concerns over the UK's inflation rate, high borrowing levels, and slow economic growth [3] - The UK financial market has been disrupted by fiscal challenges throughout the year, with a notable "triple whammy" in July when the bond market experienced significant fluctuations [5] Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The UK government's abrupt reversal on welfare cuts in July was a key factor in the market turmoil, leading to potential political resistance against future spending cuts or tax increases [6] - Analysts express concerns about a "vicious cycle" where rising debt worries lead to increased yields, further exacerbating the debt situation [6] - The UK Debt Management Office has reduced the sale of long-term securities to record lows, indicating weakened demand from traditional buyers [6] Government Response - UK Prime Minister Starmer announced cabinet reshuffles to improve government image and gain better control over economic policy [6] - Analysts warn that if the government fails to restore confidence in public finances, it may face a crisis similar to the "mini-budget" fallout experienced three years ago [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing turmoil in the global bond market, particularly focusing on Japan's long-term debt issues and the implications for both Japanese and U.S. bonds, highlighting structural fiscal challenges that remain unresolved [2][9]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market - On May 27, Japanese bonds rebounded due to speculation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might reduce the issuance of ultra-long bonds, leading to a drop in yields to three-week lows [2][5]. - However, on May 28, the auction for 40-year Japanese bonds was seen as a "canary in the coal mine," with the bid-to-cover ratio falling to its lowest level since July 2024, indicating weak demand despite previous short-term positive signals [4][6]. - The yield on 40-year Japanese bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.365% before the auction, reflecting market concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][11]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - The article notes that U.S. Treasury yields also fell on May 27, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6.25 basis points to 4.44%, but the overall outlook remains bearish due to ongoing fiscal concerns [2][9]. - Analysts express that the U.S. bond market is likely to remain in a bear market, driven by fiscal risks exacerbated by recent tax legislation that could add $4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [9][10]. - The 10-year Treasury term premium is currently near its highest level since 2014, reflecting heightened anxiety over fiscal challenges and political uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The article emphasizes that the structural fiscal issues in both Japan and the U.S. are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leading to continued volatility in bond markets [2][9]. - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds has weakened significantly, with major traditional buyers like life insurance companies showing reduced interest, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [10][11]. - Japan's government is projected to face annual debt servicing costs nearing $230 billion over the next four years, raising concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal position [11].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's national debt is projected to reach a record high of 1,323.7155 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2024, reflecting a significant increase due to rising government expenditures amid inflation and insufficient tax revenue [1][2]. Group 1: National Debt and Budget - The total national debt, consisting of government bonds, loans, and short-term securities, has increased by 26.554 trillion yen compared to the end of the fiscal year 2023, marking the ninth consecutive year of record highs [1]. - The Japanese Diet approved a budget of 115.1978 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025, which is the highest in history [2]. Group 2: Defense Spending - The defense budget has risen to approximately 8.7 trillion yen, surpassing the previous year's record of 7.9496 trillion yen [3]. - Criticism has emerged regarding the prioritization of military spending over addressing the impact of rising living costs on citizens [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Data - The Cabinet Office has revised down the actual GDP growth for the fourth quarter of the previous year from 0.7% to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, and from 2.8% to 2.2% year-on-year [4]. - There are indications that Japan's economy may experience negative growth in the first quarter of this year, according to economic analysts [4].