来源：金十数据 2025年，即便日本央行是唯一加息的主要央行，日元仍是兑疲软美元表现最差的主要货币。即使日本央 行后续进一步收紧货币政策，也未必能让日元脱离干预"危险区"。 市场预计日本央行将于周五继续其渐进式紧缩周期，加息25个基点，将政策利率推升至30年来的高点 0.75%。利率期货显示，明年可能还会再加息约40个基点。 目前来看，这将使日本央行与新西兰联储、澳洲联储一道，成为明年最鹰派的十国集团（G10）央行之 一。市场将密切关注植田和男行长周五的政策指引，以寻找日本央行是否愿意进一步紧缩的线索。 但更多加息举措并不能保证日元在2026年反弹。除美联储外，大多数主要央行已接近宽松周期尾声。若 明年全球货币政策开始紧缩，其他央行可能会迅速缩小与日本央行的利率差距。 日元汇率自高市早苗当 选日本首相以来的走势 诱人收益背后的脆弱市场 植田和男必须在三重压力下施展微妙的平衡术：来自首相高市早苗、国债投资者以及汇市的压力。由于 回旋余地有限，他可能会维持今年以来的谨慎立场。 日本经济似乎正从第三季度受美国关税冲击引发的萎缩中反弹。大型企业信心达到四年高点，多项指标 显示劳动力市场处于数十年来最紧张的状态，这理应 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae's remarks at an international investment conference on December 1, urging investment in Japan, were met with mixed reactions, highlighting the current economic challenges facing the country [1] Economic Context - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo hinted at a potential interest rate hike in December, leading to a significant drop in the Nikkei index by nearly 1000 points on the same day [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets also experienced volatility, and Bitcoin plummeted to approximately $84,000 [1] Currency and Debt Situation - The Japanese yen appreciated against the U.S. dollar, moving from the 156 yen range to the 154 yen range [1] - Japan's government debt has surpassed 200% of its GDP, the highest among developed countries, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1]

高市早苗借《 进击的巨人》台词呼吁投资日本："都给我闭嘴！把钱都投到我这儿来！" End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 面对人口老龄化、物价持续攀升以及政府债务高企等众多经济问题，高市早苗此前表示，将着手制定一个延续数年的新财政目标，以允 许更灵活的支出。路透社分析认为，这实质上淡化了该国政府对财政整顿的承诺。 日本共同社报道称，日本的财政健康状况已是发达国家中最为严峻的。 来源：北京日报综合长安街知事、参考消息、环球时报 责编丨李慧颖 据《日本经济新闻》网站12月2日报道，日本央行行长植田和男12月1日强烈暗示将于12月加息，当天日经指数应声下跌近1000点，随 后开市的美股同样延续震荡行情。 11月下旬，彭博社和路透社接连发表了题为"抛售日本"的文章，提及日本的财政困境。日本政府的债务规模目前已超国内生产总值 （GDP）的2 00%，在发达国家中最为严重。 "都给我闭嘴！把钱都投到我这儿来！"在12月1日东京举行的国际投资会议上，日本首相高市早苗援引了动漫《进击的巨人》中主角的 一句台词。报道称，虽然她的本意是鼓励对日投资，但鉴于当前形势，这番话也存在被错误解读的风 ...

据环球时报报道，面对人口老龄化、物价持续攀升以及政府债务高企等众多经济问题，高市早苗此前表 示，将着手制定一个延续数年的新财政目标，以允许更灵活的支出。路透社分析认为，这实质上淡化了 该国政府对财政整顿的承诺。 日本共同社报道称，日本的财政健康状况已是发达国家中最为严峻的。 （文章来源：新京报） 据参考消息援引《日本经济新闻》网站12月2日报道，日本央行行长植田和男1日强烈暗示将于12月加 息，当天日经指数应声下跌近1000点，随后开市的美股同样延续震荡行情。 11月下旬，彭博社和路透社接连发表了题为"抛售日本"的文章，提及日本的财政困境。日本政府的债务 规模目前已超国内生产总值（GDP）的200%，在发达国家中最为严重。 "都给我闭嘴！把钱都投到我这儿来！"在12月1日东京举行的国际投资会议上，日本首相高市早苗援引 了动漫《进击的巨人》中主角的一句台词。报道称，虽然她的本意是鼓励对日投资，但鉴于当前形势， 这番话也存在被错误解读的风险。 ...

Group 1 - The UK's budget deficit for August reached £18 billion (approximately $24.4 billion), marking the highest borrowing level for the same period in five years and exceeding economists' highest expectations by £4 billion [1] - Cumulative deficit for the first five months of the fiscal year has reached £83.8 billion, which is £11.4 billion higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast [1] - Concerns over the UK's fiscal situation have led to rising government bond yields, increasing borrowing costs for the government [1] Group 2 - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds rose by 3 basis points to 4.71%, while the 30-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 5.55% [2] - The GBP/USD exchange rate fell by 0.5% to $1.3492, reaching its lowest level since September 8 and potentially marking the worst week since early August [2] - The Bank of England has acknowledged the vulnerability of long-term bonds and announced a slowdown in the reduction of its bond holdings, adjusting the structure of its sales to decrease the amount of long-term bonds sold [2]

Market Overview - Major European stock indices experienced declines, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.59% to 9142.01 points, the French CAC 40 down 0.42% to 7675.69 points, and the German DAX down 1.69% to 23630.09 points [1] - The global bond market saw widespread declines, particularly in long-term bonds, with the UK 30-year government bond yield surpassing 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, and the US 30-year bond yield reaching 4.97%, the highest since July [3] Currency Market - The British pound depreciated significantly against the US dollar, dropping over 1.5% to 1.334, with the dollar index rising by 0.49% to 98.15 [3] - The pound's exchange rate against the dollar was reported at 1.34065, reflecting a decline of 1.03% [4] Economic Concerns - The volatility in financial markets is attributed to concerns over the UK's inflation rate, high borrowing levels, and slow economic growth [3] - The UK financial market has been disrupted by fiscal challenges throughout the year, with a notable "triple whammy" in July when the bond market experienced significant fluctuations [5] Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The UK government's abrupt reversal on welfare cuts in July was a key factor in the market turmoil, leading to potential political resistance against future spending cuts or tax increases [6] - Analysts express concerns about a "vicious cycle" where rising debt worries lead to increased yields, further exacerbating the debt situation [6] - The UK Debt Management Office has reduced the sale of long-term securities to record lows, indicating weakened demand from traditional buyers [6] Government Response - UK Prime Minister Starmer announced cabinet reshuffles to improve government image and gain better control over economic policy [6] - Analysts warn that if the government fails to restore confidence in public finances, it may face a crisis similar to the "mini-budget" fallout experienced three years ago [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing turmoil in the global bond market, particularly focusing on Japan's long-term debt issues and the implications for both Japanese and U.S. bonds, highlighting structural fiscal challenges that remain unresolved [2][9]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market - On May 27, Japanese bonds rebounded due to speculation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might reduce the issuance of ultra-long bonds, leading to a drop in yields to three-week lows [2][5]. - However, on May 28, the auction for 40-year Japanese bonds was seen as a "canary in the coal mine," with the bid-to-cover ratio falling to its lowest level since July 2024, indicating weak demand despite previous short-term positive signals [4][6]. - The yield on 40-year Japanese bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.365% before the auction, reflecting market concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][11]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - The article notes that U.S. Treasury yields also fell on May 27, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6.25 basis points to 4.44%, but the overall outlook remains bearish due to ongoing fiscal concerns [2][9]. - Analysts express that the U.S. bond market is likely to remain in a bear market, driven by fiscal risks exacerbated by recent tax legislation that could add $4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [9][10]. - The 10-year Treasury term premium is currently near its highest level since 2014, reflecting heightened anxiety over fiscal challenges and political uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The article emphasizes that the structural fiscal issues in both Japan and the U.S. are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leading to continued volatility in bond markets [2][9]. - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds has weakened significantly, with major traditional buyers like life insurance companies showing reduced interest, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [10][11]. - Japan's government is projected to face annual debt servicing costs nearing $230 billion over the next four years, raising concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal position [11].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's national debt is projected to reach a record high of 1,323.7155 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2024, reflecting a significant increase due to rising government expenditures amid inflation and insufficient tax revenue [1][2]. Group 1: National Debt and Budget - The total national debt, consisting of government bonds, loans, and short-term securities, has increased by 26.554 trillion yen compared to the end of the fiscal year 2023, marking the ninth consecutive year of record highs [1]. - The Japanese Diet approved a budget of 115.1978 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025, which is the highest in history [2]. Group 2: Defense Spending - The defense budget has risen to approximately 8.7 trillion yen, surpassing the previous year's record of 7.9496 trillion yen [3]. - Criticism has emerged regarding the prioritization of military spending over addressing the impact of rising living costs on citizens [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Data - The Cabinet Office has revised down the actual GDP growth for the fourth quarter of the previous year from 0.7% to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, and from 2.8% to 2.2% year-on-year [4]. - There are indications that Japan's economy may experience negative growth in the first quarter of this year, according to economic analysts [4].