12月19日至21日，"我的钢铁"年会在上海召开。 徐高指出，今年12月中央经济工作会议明确提出"推动投资止跌回稳，优化地方政府专项债务管理"，这 与去年"提高投资效率"的提法形成对比。如果要求"提高投资效益"，那么可能制约投资规模的扩张。对 于今年"推动投资止跌回稳"这一表述，他认为是一个非常积极的信号。 对于中国经济前景，徐高预计2025年GDP增速将达到5%。2026年是"十五五"开局之年，为了迎接开门 红，他预计政府会放宽资金支出、增加投资，政府投资会是2026年经济稳增长的关键抓手。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 与此同时，未来如何进一步刺激消费增长亦为论坛上专家的热议话题。 国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦表示，在经历了三十多年的高速增长后，中国经济从2010年一季度 开始由高速逐步转向中速。这一变化的背景在于，经济增长的主要矛盾已从供给约束转向需求约束。 刘世锦认为，需求不足主要不是投资和出口不足，而是消费不足。从国际比较看，我国消费率处于全球 偏低水平。从发展阶段看，我国当前消费率也低于发达经济体在相同发展阶段时的水平。扩大消费要把 注意力和重点放到解决终端需求中消费比重结构性偏低这个源头性问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing investment to drive economic growth, highlighting the need for targeted investment strategies to address both immediate and long-term economic challenges [1]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Since 2025, there has been increasing downward pressure on investment, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November [1]. - Traditional investment engines like real estate and infrastructure are weakening, while investments in high-tech sectors such as clean energy and aerospace are rapidly increasing, indicating a positive shift in investment structure [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Investment should be directed towards key areas that support national long-term development, including national security, industrial chain resilience, technological innovation, urban renewal, infrastructure, and energy [2]. - The construction of the Shanghai-Chongqing Railway serves as an example of how infrastructure projects can enhance regional economic coordination and improve public convenience, yielding significant indirect investment returns [2]. Group 3: Addressing Social Needs - Investments in public services such as education, healthcare, elderly care, and disaster prevention are crucial for improving people's livelihoods and expanding domestic demand [3]. Group 4: Green Transition - There is significant investment potential in energy-saving, carbon reduction, ecological protection, and clean energy sectors, which are essential for achieving carbon neutrality goals and enhancing China's competitive advantage [4]. Group 5: Investment Sources - Government investment plays a crucial role in guiding overall investment strategies, particularly in areas where the market cannot effectively allocate resources [4]. - Private investment, which accounts for over half of total fixed asset investment, is vital for sustaining investment growth, and its activation requires practical measures to enhance market access and address barriers [5]. Group 6: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate private investment, it is essential to implement concrete measures that improve market conditions, provide stable policy expectations, and ensure fair market environments [5]. - The article suggests that a coordinated policy approach focusing on both immediate stabilization and long-term high-quality development can effectively revitalize investment [5].

请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月18日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | ...

着力扩大有效投资 党的二十届四中全会通过的《建议》将扩大有效投资列为"建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展格局"的重点任务之一，并 作出明确部署。要认真学习贯彻全会精神，扎实做好"十五五"时期扩大有效投资各项工作，为构建新发展格局、推动高质 量发展作出应有贡献。 一、深入学习领会习近平总书记关于扩大有效投资的重要论述和全会部署 习近平总书记高度重视扩大有效投资工作，作出一系列重要论述，在就《建议》所作的说明中强调，"十五五"时期要坚 持"投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，大力提振消费，扩大有效投资"，这为做好投资工作指明了方向，提供了根本遵循。我 们要深入学习领会习近平总书记重要论述和全会部署，自觉对标对表，确保投资工作方向不偏、重心不移。 充分发挥投资关键作用，坚定不移扩大有效投资。 习近平总书记指出，"要优化政策举措，充分发挥消费的基础作用和投资 的关键作用""增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关键作用"。《建议》提出，保持投资合理增长， 实施一批重大标志性工程项目，增强市场主导的有效投资增长动力。投资既是当前的需求，也是未来的供给。从需求看， 增强内需拉动经济增长的主动力作用、建设强大国内市场， ...

我国固定资产投资（不含农户）从2012年的23万亿元增长到2024年的51.4万亿元；2013—2024年，资本 形成总额对经济增长的年均贡献率达38.1%。从结构看，制造业投资占比总体稳定，高技术产业投资 2018—2024年年均增长12.1%，绿色能源等领域投资高速增长，投资结构持续优化。 其中，"十四五"时期政府投资规模也在不断壮大。近3.4万亿元中央预算内投资，重点支持补短板、调 结构、惠民生的公共领域项目建设。发行约16万亿元地方政府专项债券用于投资建设，支持地方重点项 目建设。2024—2025年发行1.5万亿元超长期特别国债，支持国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建 设（"两重"建设）。2023年增发国债1万亿元，支持华北等地区加快灾后恢复重建，提升我国防灾减灾 救灾能力。2022年、2025年分别投放7399亿元政策性开发性金融工具、5000亿元新型政策性金融工具， 有力补充重大项目资本金。 （资料图） 国家发展改革委投资司表示，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，特别是从6月开始，投资增速快速回落，1 —10月同比下降1.7%。这既是受一些地方政府化债压力较大、地方投资循环不畅等当期因素影响，也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding effective investment as a key task for building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, as outlined in the proposals from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1] Group 1: Understanding Xi Jinping's Important Statements - Xi Jinping highlights the need to combine investment in physical assets and human resources, aiming to boost consumption and expand effective investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - The proposals stress maintaining reasonable growth in investment and implementing significant landmark projects to enhance the driving force of effective investment [2] - Investment is viewed as both current demand and future supply, essential for building a modern industrial system and enhancing national competitiveness [2] Group 2: Improving Investment Efficiency - The focus is on achieving returns from investments, profits for enterprises, income for employees, and tax revenue for the government [3] - The proposals call for optimizing investment structures and enhancing the quality of investment projects to avoid wasteful spending [3] - There is a need for innovative investment management to improve the comprehensive benefits of investments across economic, social, ecological, and safety dimensions [3] Group 3: Enhancing Policy Effectiveness - Government investment is seen as a crucial tool for guiding and stimulating overall social investment [4] - The proposals advocate for optimizing government investment structures and encouraging private capital participation in major projects [4] - The article mentions the issuance of long-term special bonds to support significant strategic implementations and key areas [4] Group 4: Achievements in Expanding Effective Investment - Since the 18th National Congress, fixed asset investment in China has grown from 23 trillion yuan in 2012 to 51.4 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual contribution rate of 38.1% from capital formation to economic growth from 2013 to 2024 [6] - The article notes that high-tech industry investments have seen an average annual growth of 12.1% from 2018 to 2024, indicating a continuous optimization of investment structure [6] Group 5: Strategies for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The article outlines the need to maintain reasonable investment growth while enhancing the effectiveness of investments [11] - It emphasizes the importance of expanding investment in both physical and human resources, and fostering a conducive environment for private investment [11] - The proposals highlight the necessity of optimizing investment structures and focusing on new growth drivers while stabilizing traditional sectors [12] Group 6: Government Investment Management - The article stresses the importance of maintaining a reasonable level of government investment and optimizing its structure [13] - It calls for a high-quality approach to major project construction and emphasizes the need for effective management throughout the investment lifecycle [13] - The proposals suggest enhancing the role of government investment in supporting public welfare and long-term projects [13] Group 7: Promoting Private Investment - The article discusses measures to enhance private investment, including expanding access and addressing existing barriers [14] - It highlights the importance of involving private enterprises in significant projects and promoting public-private partnerships (PPP) [14] - The establishment of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in infrastructure is mentioned as a way to support private investment [14] Group 8: Reforming Investment Approval Processes - The article emphasizes the need for reforming investment approval systems to stimulate investment activity and prevent ineffective investments [15] - It calls for optimizing the approval process and ensuring that government investment projects are managed effectively [15] - The proposals include enhancing the evaluation and performance assessment of investment decisions [15]

24.85万亿元 从全国一般公共预算收支情况来看，1至11月，全国一般公共预算收入20.05万亿元，同比增长0.8%，增 幅与1至10月持平。税收收入继续增长，1至11月，全国税收收入16.48万亿元，同比增长1.8%。其中， 装备制造业、现代服务业等行业税收表现良好。计算机通信设备制造业税收收入同比增长14.1%，电气 机械器材制造业税收收入同比增长7.9%，科学研究技术服务业税收收入同比增长14.6%，文化体育娱乐 业税收收入同比增长6.3%。 全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到保障。财政部表示，各级财政部门认真落实更加积 极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保障。1至11月，全国一般 公共预算支出24.85万亿元，同比增长1.4%；其中，社会保障和就业支出同比增长8.1%，教育支出同比 增长4.4%，卫生健康支出同比增长4.7%，科学技术支出同比增长7.9%，节能环保支出同比增长6.6%， 文化旅游体育与传媒支出同比增长1.3%。 此外，1至11月，全国政府性基金预算支出9.21万亿元，同比增长13.7%。财政部表示，主要是各级财政 持续加快债券资金使用，地方政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in supporting major national strategies, expanding domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and improving people's livelihoods in 2025 and the continuation of these policies into 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 2 - In 2025, significant fiscal measures included the allocation of 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support major projects, which involved 1,459 projects in key areas such as ecological restoration and transportation infrastructure [2]. - The consumer goods replacement policy led to a 26.5% increase in sales revenue for home appliances and a 20.3% increase for communication retail in the first eleven months of 2025 [2]. - The fiscal spending since the 14th Five-Year Plan has directed over 70% towards improving people's livelihoods, indicating a strong focus on social welfare [2]. Group 3 - The fiscal policy has played a crucial role in boosting consumption and expanding investment, contributing to the achievement of economic and social development goals [3]. - Investment in human capital through subsidies for childcare and education is seen as essential for high-quality development and improving residents' living standards [3]. Group 4 - The government plans to optimize expenditure structures and enhance financial support for major national strategies, focusing on investments in human capital and expanding domestic demand [4]. - The Ministry of Finance has outlined strategies to promote income growth and optimize income distribution to stimulate consumption [4]. Group 5 - Experts suggest that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as the consumer goods replacement policy, may need optimization to avoid diminishing returns [5]. - There is potential for expanding the subsidy range to include new consumption-related products, such as AI products and electric vehicle charging stations [6]. Group 6 - The government aims to leverage various types of government bond funds to support major projects and enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies [7]. - Optimizing project reserves and expanding the fiscal "toolbox" are seen as ways to improve the effectiveness of investment policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in 2025, which have supported major national strategies, expanded domestic demand, stabilized growth, and improved people's livelihoods. It anticipates continued expansionary fiscal policies in 2026, focusing on both material and human investments [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - In 2025, proactive fiscal policies significantly supported major national strategies, with 800 billion yuan allocated for "two重" construction and 1,880 billion yuan for equipment upgrades, leading to a 10.7% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment purchases from January to November [1]. - Increased spending in the livelihood sector was noted, with sales in supported retail sectors growing by 26.5% and 20.3% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [1]. - Over 70% of national fiscal spending since the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been directed towards improving people's livelihoods, according to the Minister of Finance [1]. Group 2: Investment in People and Material - Fiscal policies in 2025 met expectations in material investments, while policies aimed at human investments, such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education, contributed to high-quality population development [2]. - The combination of material and human investments is seen as essential for high-quality development and improving residents' living standards, creating a virtuous cycle of new demand and supply [2]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The Ministry of Finance plans to optimize spending structures and enhance financial support for major national strategies, focusing on increasing funding for human investments and expanding domestic demand [3][4]. - Policies supporting "two重" and "two新" will continue, with an emphasis on utilizing government bond funds and increasing central budget investments to stabilize and boost investment [5]. - Experts suggest that optimizing project reserves and expanding the fiscal "toolbox" will enhance the effectiveness of material investment policies [5][6].

第二，更加注重质量提升和结构优化。保持投资合理增长、提高投资效益，就是既要投得准、投得够， 也要投得好、投得值。长期以来，我国在基础设施、制造业、房地产等领域投资，为经济高速增长提供 了重要支撑，但也存在一些基础设施投资"过度超前""重建轻用"、部分地区房地产投资脱离市场需求、 一些领域制造业投资低水平重复和同质化竞争等问题，投资回报率出现下降趋势，传统投资方式难以持 续，亟待转变。要着力做好"四个优化"。一是投资方向和结构要优化，主要是聚焦促进产业转型、消费 升级、人力资本提升、社会民生改善、安全能力提升等领域，积极扩大有效投资。二是主体结构要优 化，进一步明确中央和地方政府投资方向和重点，聚焦战略性强、外部性强、民间资本不愿投的领域开 展公共投资。更加清晰划定政府投资与民间投资边界，释放民间投资空间、激发民间投资活力、提高民 间投资比重，增强市场主导的有效投资增长动力。三是期限结构要优化，着眼于发展战略导向和增强长 远发展能力，培养壮大长期资本、耐心资本，激励和引导各类投资者做"时间的朋友"，扩大长期投资， 以匹配经济长期发展需要。四是投融资结构要优化，加强投资和融资政策配合，提高直接融资比重，降 低企业 ...