多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The lithium battery supply chain is entering a peak season, driven by strong demand for electric vehicles and the upcoming sales season, with expectations for continued production increases in the battery sector [1][3]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing price increases in the supply chain, although the sustainability of these price hikes remains uncertain due to weak installation figures in August [1][3]. - The hydrogen energy sector is seeing developments with integrated projects announced by major companies, indicating a growing focus on green hydrogen and its applications [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector rose by 3.86% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [11]. - Within the sector, power generation equipment saw the largest increase at 10.50%, followed by wind power at 7.40% and photovoltaic at 5.62% [14]. Key Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to optimize tax incentives for new energy vehicles, which is expected to boost sales [3]. - In August, the EU saw a 5.3% increase in new car registrations, totaling 677,786 vehicles [3]. - China's lithium-ion battery exports reached 3 billion units in the first eight months, a year-on-year increase of 18.66%, with export value rising by 25.79% to $48.296 billion [3][27]. Company Developments - Huaguang Huaneng signed a $1.6 billion overseas gas turbine combined cycle power plant project [28]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 21% stake in Qicheng Mining for $1.456 billion [28]. - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary signed a supply agreement for at least 800,000 tons of electrolyte with Ruipulan Jun [28]. Price Observations - Lithium battery prices remain stable, with significant demand for battery materials [15]. - Photovoltaic material prices are under pressure, with silicon prices stabilizing around 55 RMB per kg for leading manufacturers [16][17]. - The price of photovoltaic modules has seen slight increases, with delivery prices for concentrated projects around 0.63-0.69 RMB per watt [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The closing price of PS2511 was 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%, with a trading volume of 242,016 lots and an open interest of 111,187 lots, a net decrease of 4,904 lots. The closing price of PS2601 was 53,425 yuan/ton, up 2.27%, with a trading volume of 41,433 lots and an open interest of 33,020 lots, a net increase of 246 lots [4]. - Before the holiday, the market entered a policy vacuum period. As the long - holiday approached, the risk preference of funds decreased. However, after the futures price tested the rigid support of the spot price at the lower end of the range and then rebounded, the oscillation pattern between 48,000 - 55,000 remained unchanged. The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 51,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals after the long - holiday requires greater policy support. The planned monthly output of 100,000 tons is not enough to drive the industry chain to fully destock, and policy drive is more important [4]. - With the strict implementation of the new energy - consumption standard, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon will be substantially improved. After the adjustment of the existing production - capacity structure, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a decrease of 31.4% compared with the installed production capacity [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. PS2511 closed at 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%, with a trading volume of 242,016 lots and an open interest of 111,187 lots, a net decrease of 4,904 lots. PS2601 closed at 53,425 yuan/ton, up 2.27%, with a trading volume of 41,433 lots and an open interest of 33,020 lots, a net increase of 246 lots [4]. - Future outlook: Before the holiday, it entered a policy vacuum period. As the long - holiday approached, the risk preference of funds decreased. The futures price tested the rigid support of the spot price at the lower end of the range and then rebounded. The oscillation pattern between 48,000 - 55,000 remained unchanged. The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 51,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals after the long - holiday requires greater policy support. The planned monthly output of 100,000 tons is not enough to drive the industry chain to fully destock, and policy drive is more important [4]. 3.2 Market News - On September 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,850 lots, a decrease of 20 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - According to the Notice on Improving the Price Mechanism to Promote the Proximity Consumption of New - energy Power Generation, the power source of proximity - consumption projects should be connected to the user side at the demarcation point between the user and the public - power grid property. The proportion of the annual self - generated electricity of new energy to the total available generated electricity should be no less than 60%, and the proportion to the total electricity consumption should be no less than 30%, and no less than 35% for new projects starting from 2030. The project should have the condition of sub - meter measurement, and the power - grid enterprise should install measurement devices at the power - generation, plant - power - consumption, grid - connection, self - use, and energy - storage junctions to accurately measure the electricity data of each link [5]. - The number of domestic polysilicon producers in operation remained at 10, with one enterprise's maintenance expected to end at the end of September and resume normal production in early October [5]. - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued the draft for comments on three mandatory national standards, including the Energy - Consumption Quotas per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium. After the formal implementation of this standard, enterprises whose energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon fails to meet the benchmark value requirement (6.4 kgce/kg) will be required to make rectifications within a time limit. Enterprises that fail to make rectifications within the time limit or fail to meet the access value (5.5 kgce/kg) after rectification will be shut down. After the adjustment of the existing production - capacity structure, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a decrease of 31.4% compared with the installed production capacity [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the industry, including Ningde Times, Shenghong Co., and DeYe Co. [5][6][7] Core Insights - The report highlights the initiation of the Cangyue DC project, which is expected to enhance the capacity of offshore wind installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][26] - The lithium battery sector is anticipated to enter a supply-demand inflection point in 2025, leading to a 2-3 year upward cycle for the industry [7][11] - The energy storage sector is experiencing significant growth, with a surge in overseas contracts and supportive policies from various regions [22][23][25] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - Key companies like Ningde Times and Fulin Precision have secured substantial prepayments for high-pressure cathode material supply [13] - The first generation of semi-solid batteries from Honeycomb Energy is nearing mass production, with a planned annual capacity of 2.3GWh [14] - Full solid-state batteries from Funeng Technology are set for delivery by the end of the year, supporting humanoid robots with 8-12 hours of endurance [15] - The lithium battery industry is expected to see performance and valuation improvements over the next two years, making it a favorable mid-term investment sector [7] Energy Storage Sector - The release of the "136 Document" in Heilongjiang encourages independent energy storage, with a pricing mechanism set at 0.374 yuan/kWh for existing capacity [22] - In the first nine months of 2025, Chinese companies signed contracts for 208.09GWh of energy storage projects, with significant activity in the Middle East [23] - The Guangdong "136 Document" promotes energy storage leasing and sets a pricing range of 0.2 to 0.453 yuan/kWh for new projects [25] Power Equipment Sector - The Cangyue DC project, a major clean energy transmission initiative, has commenced construction, expected to transmit over 43 billion kWh of clean energy annually [26] - The Henan Yunan 1000kV substation expansion project has been approved, adding 3 million kVA of capacity [27] Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes a slight increase in silicon material prices, with multi-crystalline silicon averaging 51 yuan/kg [28] - The price of silicon wafers has also risen, with the average price for 210N wafers at 1.70 yuan/piece [29] - The report anticipates stable prices for photovoltaic components, driven by upstream cost pressures and a recovery in demand [31][32] Wind Power Sector - The report emphasizes the orderly progress of offshore wind projects in China, with several key projects already under construction [7] - It suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from domestic and international offshore wind demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent notice from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration aims to enhance the price mechanism to promote the nearby consumption of renewable energy, requiring that the annual self-consumption of renewable energy should account for no less than 60% of the total available generation capacity and 30% of total electricity consumption, with new projects starting from 2030 required to meet at least 35% [1] Investment Highlights - The notice recommends commercial rooftop photovoltaics and highlights the potential of companies like Ankerui. It emphasizes the need for projects to have metering conditions and for grid companies to install metering devices to accurately measure electricity data at various stages [1] - The bidding for large-scale energy storage in August exceeded expectations, with a recommendation for storage operators like Southern Grid Storage. The combination of AI and the finalized document No. 136 is expected to drive the economic viability of large-scale storage, with domestic demand exceeding expectations [1] - Southern Grid Storage is positioned to benefit significantly as a large-scale storage operator within the Southern Grid, with a projected cumulative installed capacity of 654,200 kW and 1,298,300 kWh by the first half of 2025, alongside 10.28 million kW of pumped storage capacity [1] Industry Core Data Tracking - Electricity prices saw a 2% year-on-year decrease and a 1.3% month-on-month increase in August 2025. The price of thermal coal was reported at 680 RMB/ton as of September 12, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1 RMB/ton [2] - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was recorded at 162.88 meters, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year increases of 33.59% and 198.15%, respectively [2] - Total electricity consumption from January to July 2025 reached 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with various sectors showing different growth rates [2] - Cumulative power generation for the same period was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while installed capacity additions in the first half of 2025 showed significant growth in renewable sources like wind and solar [2] Investment Recommendations - Companies within the Southern Grid system, such as Southern Grid Energy, Southern Grid Storage, and Southern Grid Technology, are recommended for investment opportunities [3] - The green electricity sector is expected to see improvements in asset quality and growth potential, with specific companies highlighted for attention [3] - The value of photovoltaic assets and charging station assets is anticipated to be reassessed positively due to regulatory support and market dynamics [3] - Investment opportunities in thermal power, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, are also recommended [3] - The hydropower sector is expected to benefit from rising prices and low costs, with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [3] - The nuclear power sector is projected to grow, with multiple approvals for new units expected to enhance profitability and dividends [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Policy-driven logic takes precedence over fundamentals. The high premium of futures prices reflects an optimistic outlook, but policy-driven factors are volatile. Spot prices are dragged down by fundamentals, and the reaction of futures prices is limited. The policy sets a long - term bullish trend, and spot prices provide rigid support for the futures market. However, weak reality and negative basis restrict short - term upward space. Currently, the market is in a cautiously bullish and volatile state, with support observed around 49,000 yuan [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract fluctuated. The closing price of PS2511 was 53,545 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%, with a trading volume of 237,981 lots and an open interest of 132,212 lots, a net decrease of 2,686 lots. The closing price of PS2601 was 55,965 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.28%, with a trading volume of 29,847 lots and an open interest of 41,271 lots, a net increase of 887 lots [4] 3.2 Market News - On September 15, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 7,850 lots (23,550 tons), an increase of 30 lots from the previous trading day. The "Notice on Improving the Price Mechanism to Promote the Proximity Consumption of New Energy Power Generation" stipulates that the power source of proximity consumption projects should be connected to the user side at the demarcation point between the user and the public power grid. The proportion of annual self - generated power consumption of new energy to the total available power generation should be no less than 60%, and the proportion to the total power consumption should be no less than 30% (no less than 35% for new projects starting from 2030). The project should have the condition of sub - meter metering. From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. The newly added installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]

Policy - The "Nuclear Energy Law" has been officially promulgated, effective from January 15, 2026, marking China's first fundamental law in the nuclear energy sector, encouraging controlled nuclear fusion research and technology development [2] - The draft of the Ecological Environment Code's third part has been submitted for review, focusing on general principles, ecological protection, and green low-carbon development [3] - The "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims for a new energy storage capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with direct project investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [4] - A notification was issued to improve pricing mechanisms for nearby consumption of renewable energy, requiring that renewable energy self-consumption should account for at least 60% of total available generation [5] - The "Chengyu Hydrogen Corridor Construction Plan" is being developed to connect logistics hubs and promote large-scale freight demonstration projects in the Chengdu-Chongqing area [6] - Fujian Province has launched an action plan for comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, aiming for significant progress by 2030 and a mature green low-carbon circular economy by 2035 [8] Events - The third round of the fourth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections has been completed, revealing issues such as blind approval of high-pollution projects and inadequate ecological protection in sensitive areas [9] - CATL plans to resume production at its Yichun lithium mine, which was previously shut down due to mining rights issues, with progress on mining rights expected to be faster than market predictions [10] - Goldwind Technology announced plans to invest in a wind power hydrogen and methanol integration project in Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of approximately 18.92 billion yuan [11] - A report indicates that China is expected to reach its power carbon peak by 2025, contingent on achieving specific renewable energy installation targets by 2030 [12] - The China Hydrogen Price Index has been officially released, marking a significant step in the market-oriented development of the hydrogen energy industry [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, specifically recommending South Network Energy and South Network Storage for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve the pricing mechanism for promoting the nearby consumption of renewable energy, recommending commercial rooftop photovoltaics from South Network Energy and paying attention to Anke Rui [4]. - The large-scale energy storage tender in August exceeded expectations, with South Network Storage being recommended as a storage operator. The economic viability of large-scale storage is expected to improve steadily, driven by AI and the implementation of Document No. 136 [4]. - The report highlights significant growth in electricity consumption and generation, with total electricity consumption from January to July 2025 reaching 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [13]. - The report tracks key industry data, including electricity prices, coal prices, and water conditions, indicating a stable environment for utility investments [4][40][45]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The utility sector index increased by 0.80% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, underperforming compared to the ChiNext index [9]. - The report notes that the total electricity consumption for the first seven months of 2025 was 5.86 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [13]. Electricity Consumption - The first industry saw a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, the second industry 2.8%, the third industry 7.8%, and urban and rural residential electricity consumption 4.1% [13]. Electricity Generation - Total electricity generation from January to July 2025 was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Notably, coal and hydropower generation saw declines of 1.3% and 4.5%, respectively [21]. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price from the grid in August 2025 was 388 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase of 1.3% [40]. Coal Prices - As of September 12, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 680 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.65% [45]. Water Conditions - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 162.88 meters as of September 12, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year increases of 33.59% and 198.15%, respectively [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on listed companies within the South Network system, including South Network Energy, South Network Storage, and South Network Technology, highlighting opportunities in green electricity, photovoltaic assets, and charging station asset value reassessment [4].

Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext Index surged over 2.8%, reaching its highest level since mid-January 2022, driven by significant gains in leading new energy stocks like CATL and Sungrow [1][2] - CATL's stock rose by 9.85%, hitting a historical high with a trading volume of 20.668 billion yuan, the highest in A-shares [1][3] - Other leading stocks in the new energy sector, including BYD, Ganfeng Lithium, and others, also experienced notable increases [1] Group 2: Policy Catalysts - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a plan for large-scale construction of new energy storage from 2025 to 2027, aiming for a total installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts and direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [4] - A recent notice encourages the nearby consumption of renewable energy, clarifying cost indicators for green electricity direct connection projects [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Market expectations for CATL's production capacity in 2026 have been revised upward, leading to an increase in profit forecasts for the next year [5] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that CATL's industry leadership has strengthened, and its A-share valuation is now considered the most attractive in the sector [5] - Recent trends in the new energy sector include unexpected demand for energy storage cells, advancements in solid-state battery applications, and improvements in structural components like separators and steel shell batteries [5] Group 4: Gaming Sector Performance - The gaming sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Xinghui Entertainment and Perfect World leading the increases [6][7] - The recent EA SPORTS FC PRO championship in Shanghai has contributed to heightened interest in gaming, with the FC football world boasting over 30 million daily active users [8] - Analysts note a shift in the gaming sector's driving logic from a focus on regulatory approvals to a dual-driven model of supply expansion and AI integration [9]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the pricing mechanism for promoting the local consumption of renewable energy, aiming to support the green and low-carbon transformation of energy and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The notification will take effect from October 1 [1]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The notification outlines measures in four areas: public grid services, cost sharing, market participation, and implementation organization [1]. - It emphasizes the need for clear project boundaries and economic responsibilities for renewable energy projects to ensure stable supply from the public grid [1][2]. Group 2: Cost Sharing and Market Fairness - The notification establishes a cost-sharing mechanism based on the principle of "who benefits, who bears the cost," requiring local consumption projects to fairly share costs related to transmission and distribution, as well as system operation [2]. - Projects not connected to the public grid are exempt from these costs, ensuring fairness in market participation [2]. Group 3: Economic Advantages and System Pressure Relief - Local consumption projects can save costs by utilizing self-generated renewable energy and reducing grid connection capacity, which is supported by the improved pricing mechanism [3]. - The new pricing mechanism encourages projects to enhance their balancing capabilities and reduce grid connection capacity, thereby alleviating pressure on the power system [3].