Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is expected to face significant challenges in 2026, with predictions of stagnation or even negative growth due to the cessation of subsidies and changing consumer behavior [4][5][6]. Market Predictions - Experts predict a growth rate of around 4% for 2025, with a potential slowdown to 3.2% in 2026. However, many automotive executives foresee negative growth, with some estimating declines in the double digits [5]. - November sales data indicates a retail volume of 2.225 million vehicles, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year decline and a 1.1% month-on-month decrease, continuing a downward trend from October [6]. Impact of Subsidy Changes - The abrupt halt of subsidies, including local and national incentives, has significantly impacted consumer purchasing decisions, leading to a hold-off on vehicle purchases [8][9]. - In 2025, the cumulative benefits from various subsidies amounted to nearly 400 billion yuan, with over 10 million vehicles benefiting from trade-in subsidies [9]. Consumer Behavior - The cessation of subsidies has led to a "wait-and-see" attitude among potential buyers, with many choosing to delay purchases until more favorable conditions arise [10][13]. - Some consumers speculate that the removal of subsidies may lead to lower vehicle prices, as manufacturers may need to reduce prices to stimulate demand [14]. Competitive Landscape - The automotive industry is entering a more competitive phase, with a shift from subsidy-driven growth to a focus on profitability and product quality [16][17]. - Companies are expected to adopt strategies that prioritize production based on sales rather than maximizing output, which may lead to a more rational pricing environment [17]. Policy Outlook - Future policies are anticipated to focus on industry upgrades and targeted support for specific consumer groups, rather than broad subsidies [17]. - The market may see a consolidation of brands, with only those possessing strong technological capabilities and operational efficiency surviving the competitive landscape [17]. Conclusion - The automotive market in China is poised for a challenging year ahead, with uncertainties surrounding consumer behavior and policy changes potentially reshaping the industry dynamics [19].

Core Insights - The competition between electric and hybrid vehicles is intensifying as pure electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to exceed 50% of the new energy vehicle market by 2025 [1] - The upcoming reduction in subsidies for new energy vehicles adds uncertainty to the future trajectory of fuel and electric vehicle sales [2] - According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0," it is predicted that by 2035, 52% of vehicles will still have internal combustion engines [2] Group 1 - By 2035, over 80% of new passenger vehicles sold will be new energy vehicles, with a BEV to PHEV ratio of 6:4, indicating that fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles will account for 52% of sales [2] - In 2030, the proportion of new vehicles with fuel tanks is expected to be 65%, decreasing to 32% by 2040 [3] - The sales growth of pure electric vehicles has been rapid, with a 20% year-on-year increase in October, while range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles saw declines of 7.7% and 10.3%, respectively [3] Group 2 - The wholesale structure shows that pure electric vehicle sales have surpassed 60%, with 62% of new energy vehicle sales being pure electric, a 4% increase year-on-year [3] - The market share of pure electric vehicles has dramatically shifted from 49% to 51% last year to 74% to 26% this year, indicating a significant change in consumer preference [3]

2025.11. 19 本文字数：810，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 葛慧 2025年来，伴随着纯电动汽车在新能源汽车中的占比超过50%，动力路线的"油电之争"进入白热 化。 而即将到来的新能源汽车补贴退坡，更让未来油电路线走势扑朔迷离。 不过根据《节能与新能源汽车技术路线图3.0》（以下简称"技术路线图3.0"）中的预测，到2035 年，可能仍将有52%的汽车将"携带油箱"。 上述"技术路线图3.0"由工业和信息化部指导、中国汽车工程学会组织全行业2000余名专家历时一年 半修订编制。"技术路线图3.0"认为，内燃机仍将是汽车的重要动力来源。 细化来看，"技术路线图3.0"信息显示，到2035年，新能源乘用车销量占乘用车辆新车年销量的80% 以上，BEV（纯电动汽车）和PHEV（插电式混合动力汽车）之比为6:4。这意味着，到2035年，燃 油车和带油箱的混动车（包括增程和狭义的插混）的销量占比在52%，纯电动车在整个新车的销量 占比约为48%。 往近处看，在2030年，带油箱的新车销量占比为65%；而到了2040年，这个比例将下降到32%。 事实上，纯电车的销量增速在今年已经十分迅猛。 乘联分会 ...

Core Insights - By 2035, the market share of fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles with fuel tanks (including range-extended and narrow-sense plug-in hybrids) is projected to be 52%, while pure electric vehicles (EVs) will account for approximately 48% of new car sales [1] - The competition between fuel and electric vehicles is expected to intensify as pure electric vehicles surpass 50% of the new energy vehicle market by 2025, compounded by the upcoming reduction in new energy vehicle subsidies [1] - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" predicts that internal combustion engines will remain a significant power source for vehicles, with new energy passenger vehicles expected to account for over 80% of new passenger vehicle sales by 2035 [1] Market Trends - In October, the retail sales of pure electric vehicles grew by 20% year-on-year, while range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles saw declines of 7.7% and 10.3%, respectively [2] - The market share of pure electric vehicles in wholesale sales has exceeded 60%, with pure electric vehicles accounting for 62% of the new energy wholesale structure in the first ten months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [2] - The structural ratio of pure electric and range-extended vehicles has dramatically shifted from 49%:51% last year to 74%:26% this year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with inventory being depleted. The upstream mines still have a strong sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, and the rising lithium price drives up the ore price. The new production lines of domestic spodumene and salt lakes are expected to operate normally, increasing the supply of lithium carbonate. The downstream battery materials are in the peak consumption season, and the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles may stimulate pre - year car - buying enthusiasm, leading to a steady increase in domestic lithium carbonate demand [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 52.56%, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.8946%. The call open interest in the options market dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish, with implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are slightly converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,280 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 193,907 lots, up 5,502 lots; the open interest of the main contract is 525,184 lots, up 14,744 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,360 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEX are 27,290 lots/ton, down 331 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,280 yuan/ton, down 1,050 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 985 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,770 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 10.90 million yuan/ton, up 0.15 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 164,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 156,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.58 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.09%, up 0.55 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 1.758 million vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 25.64%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 27.25%, up 0.13 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call open interest is 194,164 contracts, up 20,201 contracts; the total put open interest is 102,053 contracts, down 3,116 contracts; the total open - interest put - call ratio is 52.56%, down 7.8946 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.31%, down 0.0228 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that China's share in the world's automobile market has been increasing. In September, China's share rebounded to a good level of 38%, 2 percentage points higher than last year. In 2024, China accounted for 34.2% of the world's automobiles; from January to September 2025, China accounted for 34.5% of the world's automobiles [2]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers disclosed their October sales data. XPeng's October delivery volume hit a record high, exceeding 40,000 units for two consecutive months. Xiaomi's October delivery volume continued to exceed 40,000 units. Leapmotor's total delivery in October reached 70,289 units, a year - on - year increase of over 84%. NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, setting a record high for three consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 92.6% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. ZEEKR delivered 61,636 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and the monthly sales volume exceeded 60,000 units for the first time. BYD's group brand and public relations general manager, Li Yunfei, said that BYD sold 441,706 vehicles in October, hitting a new high this year. The cumulative sales from January to October were 3,701,852 vehicles, and the cumulative new energy sales exceeded 14.2 million vehicles [2]. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in October was 52.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9 percentage points. The prosperity of the automobile circulation industry has improved. The estimated monthly terminal sales volume of passenger cars in October was about 2.4 million vehicles [2]. - The National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The 2026 purchase tax subsidy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is set to be halved, yet it is expected that electric vehicle (EV) sales can still maintain a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate [3][9] - The impact of the subsidy reduction will be significant, affecting approximately 90% of NEV consumers, particularly in the low-price segment [6][17] - The overall market for NEVs is influenced by multiple factors beyond subsidies, including the introduction of quality supply and the gradual penetration of NEVs into various channels [7][9] Summary by Sections 1. Analysis of the Impact of the 2026 New Energy Vehicle Purchase Tax Policy - The purchase tax subsidy for NEVs will be halved from 2026 to 2027, with the maximum subsidy per vehicle reduced to 15,000 yuan [5][13] - The technical requirements for subsidies will also increase, with the pure electric range requirement for plug-in hybrid and extended-range vehicles rising from 43 km to 100 km [5][13][24] - The subsidy reduction will have broad implications, with 90% of low-price segment consumers feeling the impact significantly [6][17] 2. Overall Forecast - The expected growth rates for NEV insurance registrations are 19% for 2025 and 9% for 2026, with potential upward adjustments depending on advancements in autonomous driving technology [8][33] - Despite the subsidy reduction, the NEV penetration rate is anticipated to maintain a slight increase due to factors such as quality supply and market dynamics [7][9][41] - The total volume of NEVs is projected to grow moderately, with the potential for unexpected demand driven by technological innovations [8][40] 3. Investment Opportunities - Focus on high-end automakers less affected by the subsidy reduction, such as Jianghuai Automobile [9] - Attention to automakers with strong new product cycles that can offset the impact of subsidy reductions, including Geely Automobile and SAIC Group [9] - Consider companies that may create additional demand through technological innovations, such as Li Auto and Xpeng Motors [9]

Core Insights - The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing unprecedented demand as consumers rush to place orders before the expiration of tax exemptions and subsidies by the end of 2025 [1][3][9] - Major automakers like Li Auto, AITO, and NIO are witnessing significant order volumes, with Li Auto's i6 receiving over 20,000 orders within hours of its launch, and NIO's new ES8 exceeding its production capacity of 40,000 orders [1][10] - The impending reduction of purchase tax exemptions and subsidies starting January 1, 2026, is driving consumers to make quick purchasing decisions, leading to a surge in orders [3][6][9] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The purchase tax exemption for electric vehicles has been in place for ten years, increasing the market penetration from 0.3% to over 50% [3][6] - Starting in 2026, the purchase tax will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with a maximum exemption of 15,000 yuan per vehicle, significantly increasing the cost of purchasing EVs [5][6] - Local subsidies are also being reduced, with many cities offering limited-time incentives that can be combined with the national tax exemption, further motivating consumers to buy before the deadline [6][9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Response - The urgency created by the policy changes has led to a "last-minute rush" in the EV market, with consumers eager to secure their orders before the benefits diminish [9][10] - Automakers are employing marketing strategies such as limited-time price guarantees and delivery commitments to enhance consumer urgency [11][14] - Despite the impressive order numbers, there are concerns about the authenticity of these figures, as many orders are small deposits that can be easily canceled, leading to inflated statistics [15][17] Group 3: Supply Chain and Delivery Challenges - The surge in orders is putting immense pressure on the supply chain and delivery systems of automakers, with key components like batteries and chips facing increased demand [17][18] - Companies like NIO and Tesla are struggling to meet order demands, leading to potential delays in vehicle deliveries [17][18] - NIO has introduced a policy to compensate customers for tax differences if their orders are delayed into 2026, highlighting the challenges faced by manufacturers in fulfilling orders on time [18][20] Group 4: Consumer Risks and Market Outlook - Consumers face risks related to the timing of subsidies and potential delays in vehicle delivery, which could lead to financial losses if not managed properly [22][25] - The increase in complaints related to delivery delays and false advertising indicates that the rapid sales growth is straining after-sales service capabilities [25][26] - The current market dynamics reflect a combination of policy incentives, product advancements, and consumer psychology, creating both opportunities and challenges for the EV industry [25][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified efforts to combat "involution," leading to a more orderly terminal price competition. Since May 2025, various government departments have indicated a commitment to regulate "involution-style" competition in the automotive sector, with measures including cost investigations and price monitoring [3][6] - The impact of "involution" is expected to be more adverse for mid-to-low-end manufacturers, while manufacturers that can create user demand through technology and branding are likely to benefit [3][15] - The anticipated reduction in subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026 may put pressure on actual sales growth, despite short-term support from consumer expectations of recovering discounts and potential tax incentives [3][16] Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Involution Measures - The core reason for the current round of involution in the automotive industry is weak demand, triggered by price cuts from major players like BYD. The market is entering a phase of stock competition, with many manufacturers resorting to price cuts to gain market share [6][7] - Key measures to combat involution include resisting low-price competition, enhancing product quality checks, advocating for the orderly exit of outdated capacities, and standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days [7][10] Impact on Price Competition - The measures taken are expected to lead to a more orderly terminal price competition, with significant promotional policies being retracted and efforts to stabilize dealer inventories and accelerate rebate payments [10][12] - Several manufacturers have committed to paying dealers within 60 days, which is expected to alleviate pressure on dealer inventories and stabilize terminal prices [11][13] Sales Outlook - The automotive industry is projected to face challenges in sales growth due to the anticipated reduction in NEV purchase tax subsidies in 2026. The expected decrease in subsidies may lead to a decline in sales growth rates, particularly for low-price segment manufacturers [16][17] - Historical data suggests that previous tax reduction policies have led to significant sales increases, indicating that the upcoming subsidy changes could similarly impact sales dynamics [20][21]