Core Insights - The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing unprecedented demand as consumers rush to place orders before the expiration of tax exemptions and subsidies by the end of 2025 [1][3][9] - Major automakers like Li Auto, AITO, and NIO are witnessing significant order volumes, with Li Auto's i6 receiving over 20,000 orders within hours of its launch, and NIO's new ES8 exceeding its production capacity of 40,000 orders [1][10] - The impending reduction of purchase tax exemptions and subsidies starting January 1, 2026, is driving consumers to make quick purchasing decisions, leading to a surge in orders [3][6][9] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The purchase tax exemption for electric vehicles has been in place for ten years, increasing the market penetration from 0.3% to over 50% [3][6] - Starting in 2026, the purchase tax will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with a maximum exemption of 15,000 yuan per vehicle, significantly increasing the cost of purchasing EVs [5][6] - Local subsidies are also being reduced, with many cities offering limited-time incentives that can be combined with the national tax exemption, further motivating consumers to buy before the deadline [6][9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Response - The urgency created by the policy changes has led to a "last-minute rush" in the EV market, with consumers eager to secure their orders before the benefits diminish [9][10] - Automakers are employing marketing strategies such as limited-time price guarantees and delivery commitments to enhance consumer urgency [11][14] - Despite the impressive order numbers, there are concerns about the authenticity of these figures, as many orders are small deposits that can be easily canceled, leading to inflated statistics [15][17] Group 3: Supply Chain and Delivery Challenges - The surge in orders is putting immense pressure on the supply chain and delivery systems of automakers, with key components like batteries and chips facing increased demand [17][18] - Companies like NIO and Tesla are struggling to meet order demands, leading to potential delays in vehicle deliveries [17][18] - NIO has introduced a policy to compensate customers for tax differences if their orders are delayed into 2026, highlighting the challenges faced by manufacturers in fulfilling orders on time [18][20] Group 4: Consumer Risks and Market Outlook - Consumers face risks related to the timing of subsidies and potential delays in vehicle delivery, which could lead to financial losses if not managed properly [22][25] - The increase in complaints related to delivery delays and false advertising indicates that the rapid sales growth is straining after-sales service capabilities [25][26] - The current market dynamics reflect a combination of policy incentives, product advancements, and consumer psychology, creating both opportunities and challenges for the EV industry [25][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified efforts to combat "involution," leading to a more orderly terminal price competition. Since May 2025, various government departments have indicated a commitment to regulate "involution-style" competition in the automotive sector, with measures including cost investigations and price monitoring [3][6] - The impact of "involution" is expected to be more adverse for mid-to-low-end manufacturers, while manufacturers that can create user demand through technology and branding are likely to benefit [3][15] - The anticipated reduction in subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026 may put pressure on actual sales growth, despite short-term support from consumer expectations of recovering discounts and potential tax incentives [3][16] Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Involution Measures - The core reason for the current round of involution in the automotive industry is weak demand, triggered by price cuts from major players like BYD. The market is entering a phase of stock competition, with many manufacturers resorting to price cuts to gain market share [6][7] - Key measures to combat involution include resisting low-price competition, enhancing product quality checks, advocating for the orderly exit of outdated capacities, and standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days [7][10] Impact on Price Competition - The measures taken are expected to lead to a more orderly terminal price competition, with significant promotional policies being retracted and efforts to stabilize dealer inventories and accelerate rebate payments [10][12] - Several manufacturers have committed to paying dealers within 60 days, which is expected to alleviate pressure on dealer inventories and stabilize terminal prices [11][13] Sales Outlook - The automotive industry is projected to face challenges in sales growth due to the anticipated reduction in NEV purchase tax subsidies in 2026. The expected decrease in subsidies may lead to a decline in sales growth rates, particularly for low-price segment manufacturers [16][17] - Historical data suggests that previous tax reduction policies have led to significant sales increases, indicating that the upcoming subsidy changes could similarly impact sales dynamics [20][21]