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专家预测:十年内 至少还有一半的新车带油箱
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 12:48
Core Insights - The competition between electric and hybrid vehicles is intensifying as pure electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to exceed 50% of the new energy vehicle market by 2025 [1] - The upcoming reduction in subsidies for new energy vehicles adds uncertainty to the future trajectory of fuel and electric vehicle sales [2] - According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0," it is predicted that by 2035, 52% of vehicles will still have internal combustion engines [2] Group 1 - By 2035, over 80% of new passenger vehicles sold will be new energy vehicles, with a BEV to PHEV ratio of 6:4, indicating that fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles will account for 52% of sales [2] - In 2030, the proportion of new vehicles with fuel tanks is expected to be 65%, decreasing to 32% by 2040 [3] - The sales growth of pure electric vehicles has been rapid, with a 20% year-on-year increase in October, while range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles saw declines of 7.7% and 10.3%, respectively [3] Group 2 - The wholesale structure shows that pure electric vehicle sales have surpassed 60%, with 62% of new energy vehicle sales being pure electric, a 4% increase year-on-year [3] - The market share of pure electric vehicles has dramatically shifted from 49% to 51% last year to 74% to 26% this year, indicating a significant change in consumer preference [3]
增程车销售占比连续5个月下跌
第一财经· 2025-11-10 10:20
Core Insights - The wholesale sales of range-extended electric vehicles in October reached 121,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, while retail sales decreased by 7.7% [1] - Since June of this year, the proportion of range-extended vehicles in the overall new energy vehicle wholesale structure has been declining for five consecutive months [2] - The market share of pure electric versus range-extended vehicles among new forces has shifted from 49%:51% last year to 74%:26% this year [3]
增程车销售占比连续5个月下跌
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 09:53
(文章来源:第一财经) 据乘联分会今日公布的最新数据,10月增程式批发12.1万辆,同比下降1.9%,零售同比下降7.7%。今年 6月以来,增程式在总体新能源汽车批发结构中占比已经连续5个月下跌。新势力中的纯电动与增程的结 构占比,从去年的49%∶51%变为74%∶26%。 ...
增程车越造越多,但销量“涨不动了” 极狐、小鹏等还有机会吗?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-29 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The market for range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) is experiencing a slowdown in sales growth, despite an increasing number of new models being introduced by various manufacturers. The competition is intensifying as companies adapt their strategies to enhance battery capacity and electric range to compete with pure electric vehicles (EVs) [1][2][4]. Market Trends - As of September, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in China reached 947,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, while REEVs sold 129,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of only 8.7% [2]. - The market share of pure electric vehicles has grown to 63%, while REEVs have seen a decline in market share, dropping to 9% [2][6]. Technological Developments - The cost of key components, particularly lithium carbonate for batteries, has significantly decreased, allowing for lower prices of electric vehicles. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell from approximately 600,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to around 70,000 yuan per ton, a drop of over 80% [3]. - New models with larger battery capacities are being introduced, such as the Leap Motor D19 with over 80 kWh, which exceeds many comparable pure electric models [5][6]. Competitive Strategies - Manufacturers are shifting their focus from "small battery + large range extender" to "large battery + small range extender" configurations to enhance the driving experience and compete more effectively with pure electric vehicles [4][6]. - Companies are emphasizing the need for a balance between battery size and cost, with some suggesting that not all REEVs should be equipped with large batteries, but rather focus on mid to high-end models [6][8]. Future Outlook - There is a growing consensus that REEVs will continue to have a place in the market, particularly for consumers in areas with limited charging infrastructure. However, the trend indicates that pure electric vehicles will dominate the market in the coming years, with projections suggesting that by 2040, pure electric vehicles will account for 80% of the new energy vehicle market [7][9].
第14届大城市机动车船污染防治技术论坛即将启幕
Core Insights - The "14th Urban Motor Vehicle and Ship Pollution Prevention Technology Forum" will be held on November 6, 2025, in Kunming, focusing on carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, as well as pollution prevention in the transportation sector [1][2] - The forum aims to bridge the gap between technology implementation, project application, and policy support, facilitating effective solutions to urban air pollution [2][3] Group 1: Forum Objectives and Themes - The forum will gather experts, including academicians and industry leaders, to discuss key topics such as the "dual carbon" goals and National Standard VII [1] - It will address the critical issue of reducing PM2.5 in urban areas and provide practical guidance for project applications related to the "Beautiful Blue Sky Project" [1][2] Group 2: Comprehensive Pollution Control Strategy - The agenda covers a full chain of pollution prevention research across three major areas: motor vehicles, ships, and non-road machinery, creating a complete pollution control system [2] - Tailored solutions will be developed for specific regional issues, such as highland vehicle emissions and Yangtze River ship pollution [2] Group 3: Collaboration and Innovation - Collaboration between "Double First-Class" universities and enterprises like Dongfeng Group will establish 11 sub-venues nationwide, promoting synergy between academia and industry [2] - The forum will explore cutting-edge areas such as AI-enabled internal combustion engines and digital carbon reduction pathways, showcasing new trends in intelligent governance [3] Group 4: Support from Educational Institutions - Numerous universities and research institutions, including Southwest Forestry University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University, will support the forum, contributing to breakthroughs in pollution prevention [3] - The event is expected to foster innovation and drive the industry towards sustainable development in motor vehicle and ship pollution control [3]
小长假出行调查:纯电 插混 增程 谁是好帮手
Core Viewpoint - The market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is experiencing a shift with significant growth in pure electric vehicles (EVs) while plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) are seeing a decline in sales growth. This trend reflects consumer preferences and the evolving landscape of charging infrastructure and technology [3][12]. Market Trends - During the National Day holiday, the number of non-commercial passenger car trips reached approximately 1.941 billion, a daily average of 243 million, marking a 7.1% year-on-year increase [4]. - Pure electric vehicle sales from January to August reached 6.158 million units, a 46.1% increase year-on-year, while PHEV sales were 3.46 million units, up 22.8% [8]. Consumer Experience - Many pure electric vehicle owners reported positive experiences during long-distance travel, with improved charging infrastructure leading to less "charging anxiety." Users are increasingly utilizing mobile apps for route planning and locating charging stations [6][7]. - The introduction of mobile charging vehicles and an increase in fast-charging stations have enhanced the convenience of using electric vehicles [5][6]. Charging Infrastructure - A total of 5.169 million charging sessions occurred on highways during the holiday, with a total charging volume of approximately 12.287 billion kWh, a 45.73% increase compared to the previous year [15]. - The competition for charging resources among different types of NEVs (pure electric, PHEV, and range-extended vehicles) has led to discussions about equitable access to charging stations [16][17]. PHEV Insights - PHEVs are perceived as a transitional technology, offering the flexibility of both electric and gasoline power. However, some users have expressed concerns about higher maintenance costs and complexity compared to traditional vehicles [10][11]. - The sales growth of PHEVs is projected to be significantly higher in 2024, indicating a potential resurgence in interest [8]. Range-Extended Vehicle Performance - Range-extended vehicles are gaining traction due to their long-range capabilities and improved efficiency, with many new models featuring larger batteries and smaller fuel tanks [12][13]. - Users report that these vehicles provide a seamless driving experience, combining the benefits of electric driving with the reassurance of a gasoline backup [13][14]. Future Considerations - The development of charging infrastructure is crucial for the continued growth of NEVs. Stakeholders are encouraged to optimize resource allocation and enhance user experience through better planning and technology [18].
三部门:新能源车购置税减免技术门槛提高
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-11 01:53
Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Finance, and State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of technical requirements for new energy vehicles (NEVs) aims to enhance the standards for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, promoting higher quality development in the industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from January 1, 2026, vehicles listed in the "Directory of New Energy Vehicles Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Exemption" must meet the new technical requirements outlined in the announcement [1] - The pure electric driving range requirement for plug-in hybrid vehicles has been significantly increased from a minimum of 43 kilometers to 100 kilometers, representing a 132.6% increase [1][2] Group 2: Technical Requirements - New technical requirements for plug-in hybrid vehicles are categorized based on vehicle curb weight, with specific fuel consumption and energy consumption limits set for vehicles under and over 2510 kg [2] - For vehicles under 2510 kg, the fuel consumption must be less than 70% of the limit, while for those over 2510 kg, it must be less than 75% [2] Group 3: Market Insights - In the first half of this year, pure electric vehicles held approximately 60.9% of the domestic NEV market share, while plug-in hybrids accounted for about 29.3%, and range-extended vehicles made up around 9.8% [2] - The chairman of SAIC Group predicts that by 2030, the penetration rate of NEVs in China will rise to 70%, establishing a market development structure of 4:3:3 among hybrid, pure electric, and fuel vehicles [2] Group 4: Industry Implications - The adjustments are intended to align with rapid advancements in NEV range and engine technology, ensuring that policy development keeps pace with technological progress [3] - By raising technical barriers, the policy aims to encourage companies to increase R&D investment, phase out outdated products, and shift the industry focus from scale expansion to high-quality development [3]
纯电向上,混动向下
Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China is experiencing significant growth, with retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 1.101 million units in August, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, achieving a penetration rate of 55.2% in the overall passenger vehicle market [2] - The growth rate of pure electric vehicles (EVs) is outpacing that of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), with pure EV wholesale sales increasing by 38.5% year-on-year, while PHEVs only saw a 5% increase [2][3] - The decline in sales of range-extended vehicles is notable, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% in August, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards pure electric vehicles [3][4] Market Trends - The gap between the growth rates of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles is widening, with pure electric vehicles expected to dominate the market [2][3] - The sales structure of new energy vehicles shows that pure electric vehicles accounted for 61.9% of wholesale sales from January to August, while PHEVs and range-extended vehicles saw declines [4] - The rapid advancement in pure electric vehicle technology and the improvement of charging infrastructure are contributing to the increasing consumer confidence in pure electric vehicles [7][9] Consumer Behavior - Consumer anxiety regarding the driving range of pure electric vehicles is decreasing, with average ranges approaching 500 kilometers, and many new models exceeding 600 kilometers [8][9] - The expansion of charging infrastructure, with a total of 16.696 million charging points by the end of July, supports the growing adoption of pure electric vehicles [9] - The preference for pure electric vehicles is also influenced by the perception of reliability and performance compared to hybrid models [12] Future Outlook - The plug-in hybrid market may still find opportunities in specific regions, such as rural areas with less developed charging infrastructure and colder climates where electric range may be limited [14][15] - The export market for plug-in hybrids is growing, with a 210% year-on-year increase in exports during the first half of the year, indicating potential for international expansion [15] - The long-term outlook for the automotive industry may be influenced by the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which could introduce new dynamics in the market [16]
增程的黄金时代结束了吗?
汽车商业评论· 2025-09-18 23:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting strategies of NIO and Li Auto in the electric vehicle market, highlighting the commercial value of range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) and the challenges faced by both companies in their respective approaches [5][10][29]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Li Auto's sales have been declining, with a reported drop of over 41% year-on-year in August 2025, indicating a potential stagnation in the REEV market [8][10]. - The REEV market saw a significant increase in sales in 2023, reaching 640,000 units, but the growth rate has started to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% reported in August 2025 [10][12]. - The market share of pure electric vehicles (EVs) has increased from 56% to 64%, while REEVs have dropped from 10.2% to 7.7% [10]. Group 2: Strategic Reflections - Li Bin, CEO of NIO, acknowledged the initial success of the REEV strategy but expressed a sense of regret for not pursuing it sooner, recognizing it as a more immediate path to profitability [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, Li Bin reaffirmed NIO's commitment to pure electric vehicles, emphasizing a long-term vision over short-term gains [5][6][29]. - The article suggests that the success of REEVs was largely due to their ability to address consumer pain points, particularly range anxiety, during a time when charging infrastructure was lacking [13][28]. Group 3: Technological Evolution - The trend in REEV technology is shifting from "small battery + large fuel tank" to "large battery + small fuel tank," indicating a move towards enhancing the electric driving experience [21][22]. - Modern REEVs, like the Li ONE, have significantly increased battery capacity, allowing for a more electric-centric driving experience while using the range extender as a backup [24][26]. - The evolution of REEVs is seen as a continuous process, integrating core technologies from the pure electric sector to improve user experience and reduce range anxiety [27][28].
东兴证券:8月车市销量持续增长 插混车型成出口增长主力
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 07:45
Core Insights - The domestic automotive market showed strong performance in August, with significant growth in pure electric vehicle (EV) sales, while the growth of plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and range-extended vehicles slowed down due to subsidy policies favoring smaller pure EVs [1][3] - The export of new energy vehicles (NEVs) performed robustly, with PHEV exports growing faster than domestic sales, driven by better economic and intelligent features compared to traditional fuel vehicles [1][4] Domestic Market Performance - In August, domestic vehicle sales reached 2.245 million units, a month-on-month increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [3] - Sales of Chinese brand passenger vehicles were 1.766 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 21% [3] - NEV sales in August totaled 1.171 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, accounting for 52.1% of total domestic vehicle sales [3] - For the first eight months, domestic vehicle sales reached 16.836 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [3] Export Market Performance - In August, total vehicle exports were 611,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [4] - NEV exports reached 224,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 100% [4] - Among NEVs, pure electric vehicle exports were 143,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 63.4% [4] - For the first eight months, total vehicle exports were 4.292 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [4] Investment Strategy - The domestic automotive market is characterized by accelerated electrification and the strong rise of independent brands, with intelligent features being a key driver of sales growth [5] - The focus of competition is shifting towards the intelligent sector, with leading companies in data, training facilities, and intelligent driving ecosystems expected to capture more market share [5] - Companies like Huawei are leveraging their ICT expertise to enhance their competitiveness in the automotive sector, particularly in intelligent vehicle development [6] Beneficiary Companies - Companies benefiting from deep cooperation with Huawei include Seres, JAC Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, SAIC Motor, and Changan Automobile [6] - Component suppliers with competitive advantages in cost, research, and market presence are also highlighted, including Chuanhuan Technology, Ningbo Gaofa, Kehua Holdings, New Coordinates, and Zhongyuan Neipei [6]