以下文章来源于冰川思享号 ，作者陈白bot 冰川思享号 . 汇聚思想，分享锐见 来源丨冰川思享号 作者丨陈白 而按照2023年6月披露的公告显示，"对购置日期在2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日期间的新能 源汽车减半征收车辆购置税，其中，每辆新能源乘用车减税额不超过1.5万元"，以及"购置日期按照 与此同时，新能源汽车的地方消费补贴也在退坡，多地推出了"额度有限、先到得"的补贴政策。 机动车销售统一发票或海关关税专用缴纳书等有效凭证的开具日期确定"。 买新能源车，很快就要不能再免征购置税了。 这项于2014年9月开始实施的新能源汽车购置税免征政策，在经历了多次延续之后，终于将在2025 年12月31日宣告截止。 很多人也开始担心，狂飙突进十余年的新能源汽车产业，会不会因为产业政策的转向，而发生变 化？ 01 从狂飙赛道到十字路口 从2014年政策初启时的星星之火，到如今占据全球过半的市场份额，这十年，是新能源汽车产业政 策红利密集释放的十年。 从中央层面的购置税减免、财政补贴，到地方政府的免费牌照、不限行，一套强有力的"组合拳"精 准地培育了市场。购车成本的大幅降低，极大地激发了消费者购买热情，使得新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has surpassed 60%, indicating a significant shift in the automotive market towards electrification and away from traditional fuel vehicles [1][4]. Industry Trends - The overall trend of NEV penetration is upward, despite some fluctuations, with traditional fuel vehicles showing resilience earlier in the year, maintaining a penetration rate around 50% [5][6]. - In the second half of the year, traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a decline, attributed to the improved competitiveness of NEVs and the exposure of traditional vehicles' weaknesses [6][10]. - In August, traditional fuel vehicle promotions reached 22.9%, while NEV promotions were only 10.7%, highlighting the aggressive discounting strategies of traditional vehicles [8]. Market Dynamics - Traditional fuel vehicles are caught in a "vicious cycle," needing to sacrifice profits to maintain market share, which could lead to operational challenges for manufacturers and dealers [8][10]. - Some traditional dealerships are shifting towards NEVs, and certain joint venture brands are accelerating their electrification efforts [8][10]. Future Projections - The upcoming months, particularly during the "golden September and silver October," are expected to see a surge in NEV demand as consumers rush to take advantage of current tax exemptions before they decrease [11][13]. - While a temporary sales drop for NEVs may occur after the tax incentives are reduced, the long-term acceptance of NEVs among consumers is expected to grow significantly [13][15]. - The supply of NEVs is increasing, with a wider variety of options available compared to traditional fuel vehicles, and decreasing raw material costs for batteries may lead to more competitive pricing [15][16]. Conclusion - The competition between fuel and electric vehicles is nearing its conclusion, with projections suggesting that traditional fuel vehicles may shrink to around 10% market share, while NEVs could dominate with 90% [16].

Group 1: Industry Trends - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift in competitive dynamics, with companies reassessing their strategies in response to market realities [2][3] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales are increasing, with leading brands achieving monthly sales of 30,000 to 40,000 units, indicating a transition from a "10,000 club" to a higher competitive tier [2][3] - Traditional automakers are also seeing growth in NEV sales, with companies like Chery and Geely reporting significant year-on-year increases [3][4] Group 2: Sales Performance - BYD remains a dominant player in the NEV market, with May sales reaching 382,500 units, a 15% increase from the previous year [4] - In the first five months of the year, China's total NEV sales reached 5.608 million units, reflecting a stable growth trend despite a slowdown in the growth rate [4][6] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a growing number of companies achieving substantial sales figures, indicating a shift towards a multi-strong market [5][6] Group 3: Fuel vs. Electric Vehicles - BMW has reduced its future production forecasts for electric vehicles by nearly 20%, signaling a strategic pivot towards fuel vehicles [6][7] - Many domestic brands are not abandoning fuel vehicles, with companies like Great Wall and Geely emphasizing continued investment in fuel technology [6][8] - The market penetration rate for NEVs has decreased from a peak of 53.7% to 48.7%, indicating a more balanced competition between fuel and electric vehicles [6][8] Group 4: R&D and Profitability - Companies are increasingly focusing on balancing scale, cost, and profitability, with R&D being a critical component in achieving this balance [10][11] - Leading companies are investing heavily in R&D, with significant year-on-year increases in spending, which correlates with improved sales performance [12] - The relationship between sales volume and profitability is emphasized, with larger sales volumes helping to spread costs and improve margins [11][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The automotive market is expected to become more diversified, moving beyond price competition to focus on technology and innovation [15][16] - Companies are encouraged to explore niche markets and enhance product differentiation to drive future growth [15][16] - The industry is transitioning from a price-driven model to a value-driven approach, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and collaboration [17]