Core Insights - The competition between electric and hybrid vehicles is intensifying as pure electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to exceed 50% of the new energy vehicle market by 2025 [1] - The upcoming reduction in subsidies for new energy vehicles adds uncertainty to the future trajectory of fuel and electric vehicle sales [2] - According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0," it is predicted that by 2035, 52% of vehicles will still have internal combustion engines [2] Group 1 - By 2035, over 80% of new passenger vehicles sold will be new energy vehicles, with a BEV to PHEV ratio of 6:4, indicating that fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles will account for 52% of sales [2] - In 2030, the proportion of new vehicles with fuel tanks is expected to be 65%, decreasing to 32% by 2040 [3] - The sales growth of pure electric vehicles has been rapid, with a 20% year-on-year increase in October, while range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles saw declines of 7.7% and 10.3%, respectively [3] Group 2 - The wholesale structure shows that pure electric vehicle sales have surpassed 60%, with 62% of new energy vehicle sales being pure electric, a 4% increase year-on-year [3] - The market share of pure electric vehicles has dramatically shifted from 49% to 51% last year to 74% to 26% this year, indicating a significant change in consumer preference [3]

2025.11. 19 本文字数：810，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 葛慧 2025年来，伴随着纯电动汽车在新能源汽车中的占比超过50%，动力路线的"油电之争"进入白热 化。 而即将到来的新能源汽车补贴退坡，更让未来油电路线走势扑朔迷离。 不过根据《节能与新能源汽车技术路线图3.0》（以下简称"技术路线图3.0"）中的预测，到2035 年，可能仍将有52%的汽车将"携带油箱"。 上述"技术路线图3.0"由工业和信息化部指导、中国汽车工程学会组织全行业2000余名专家历时一年 半修订编制。"技术路线图3.0"认为，内燃机仍将是汽车的重要动力来源。 细化来看，"技术路线图3.0"信息显示，到2035年，新能源乘用车销量占乘用车辆新车年销量的80% 以上，BEV（纯电动汽车）和PHEV（插电式混合动力汽车）之比为6:4。这意味着，到2035年，燃 油车和带油箱的混动车（包括增程和狭义的插混）的销量占比在52%，纯电动车在整个新车的销量 占比约为48%。 往近处看，在2030年，带油箱的新车销量占比为65%；而到了2040年，这个比例将下降到32%。 事实上，纯电车的销量增速在今年已经十分迅猛。 乘联分会 ...

Core Insights - By 2035, the market share of fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles with fuel tanks (including range-extended and narrow-sense plug-in hybrids) is projected to be 52%, while pure electric vehicles (EVs) will account for approximately 48% of new car sales [1] - The competition between fuel and electric vehicles is expected to intensify as pure electric vehicles surpass 50% of the new energy vehicle market by 2025, compounded by the upcoming reduction in new energy vehicle subsidies [1] - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" predicts that internal combustion engines will remain a significant power source for vehicles, with new energy passenger vehicles expected to account for over 80% of new passenger vehicle sales by 2035 [1] Market Trends - In October, the retail sales of pure electric vehicles grew by 20% year-on-year, while range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles saw declines of 7.7% and 10.3%, respectively [2] - The market share of pure electric vehicles in wholesale sales has exceeded 60%, with pure electric vehicles accounting for 62% of the new energy wholesale structure in the first ten months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [2] - The structural ratio of pure electric and range-extended vehicles has dramatically shifted from 49%:51% last year to 74%:26% this year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The competition between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles continues, with fuel vehicle sales showing signs of recovery despite the rising prominence of electric vehicles in the market [2][5]. Group 1: Sales Data - In September, domestic passenger car sales reached 2.299 million units, a month-on-month increase of 14.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. Traditional fuel vehicle sales accounted for 1 million units, an increase of 60,000 units year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10.9% and a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2]. - From January to September, domestic passenger car sales totaled 17.044 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Traditional fuel vehicle sales reached 8.141 million units, an increase of 136,000 units year-on-year, with a growth rate of 1.7% [2]. - In contrast, the year-on-year decline in traditional fuel vehicle sales for 2024 is projected to be 17.7% [2]. Group 2: Retail Sales and Market Trends - Retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles saw a year-on-year decline of 4% in September, but a month-on-month increase of 5%. The cumulative year-on-year decline for the first nine months was also 4%, showing a notable recovery compared to the 14% decline projected for 2024 [4]. - The recovery of fuel vehicle sales is closely linked to subsidy policies, with the 2025 vehicle replacement policy expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrappage subsidies [5]. Group 3: Promotional Strategies - Promotional efforts for fuel vehicles have exceeded those for electric vehicles, with promotional intensity for fuel vehicles remaining stable at around 23.9% for the past ten months, while electric vehicles maintained a promotional intensity of 10.2% [5]. - Luxury and joint venture fuel vehicles have shown particularly high promotional intensity, with luxury vehicles reaching 27.7% in September and joint venture fuel vehicles at 23.3%, compared to 13% in 2023 [5]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - To maintain market share, fuel vehicles are increasingly adopting smart technologies to address perceptions of being less intelligent compared to electric vehicles. New fuel vehicle models are showing significant improvements in smart driving, smart cockpit, connectivity, and interaction features [5]. - Many automakers are continuing to develop both electric and fuel vehicles, with companies like Geely stating they will not abandon the fuel vehicle market, which still accounts for 50% of their sales [6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Despite the higher growth rate of electric vehicle sales, traditional fuel vehicles still hold a significant market presence, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5% and a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for electric vehicles in September, both reaching historical highs [7]. - Starting next year, the decline in subsidies for electric vehicles and the introduction of a 5% vehicle purchase tax may impact the market dynamics, while consumer demand for fuel vehicles remains due to concerns over electric vehicle safety incidents [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending end of the tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China, which has been a significant driver for the industry since its inception in 2014. The transition from a policy-driven market to a market-driven one is expected to bring challenges and necessitate a shift in focus for automotive companies [2][4][8]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The exemption from vehicle purchase tax for NEVs will end on December 31, 2025, with a temporary reduction in tax for purchases made between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2027 [2][3]. - The NEV industry has grown significantly, with market penetration rising from less than 1% to over 30%, and exceeding 50% in some first-tier cities, driven by strong government policies [4][7]. - The article highlights the shift from a policy-driven growth phase to a market-driven phase, indicating that the industry is at a crossroads where competition will intensify and only the strongest players will survive [8][17]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the NEV Industry - The reliance on subsidies has led to a "subsidy dependency syndrome" among some companies, resulting in market distortions and overcapacity issues [7][17]. - As the market growth slows and competition intensifies, a price war has emerged, leading to a situation where companies are sacrificing profits for market share, which is unsustainable [7][14]. - The article emphasizes that the NEV sector must now compete on the same level as traditional fuel vehicles, focusing on technology investment and cost management to maintain profitability [14][16]. Group 3: The Future of Fuel and Electric Vehicles - Despite the rapid growth of NEVs, the article argues that the end of fuel vehicles is not imminent, as the debate has shifted from replacement to coexistence [10][13]. - The inherent challenges of NEVs, such as charging infrastructure and battery costs, continue to pose significant barriers to widespread adoption [11][12]. - The emergence of plug-in hybrid and range-extended vehicles indicates a market preference for solutions that combine both fuel and electric power, reflecting consumer demand for versatility [13][14]. Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The article predicts that the withdrawal of subsidies will accelerate industry consolidation, with resources concentrating among leading companies [17]. - Companies lacking scale, technological barriers, and cost control will likely be eliminated in the post-subsidy era, emphasizing the need for a focus on quality and brand building [14][17]. - The ongoing technological challenges, such as the development of solid-state batteries and advanced autonomous driving, remain critical for the future competitiveness of NEVs [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has surpassed 60%, indicating a significant shift in the automotive market towards electrification and away from traditional fuel vehicles [1][4]. Industry Trends - The overall trend of NEV penetration is upward, despite some fluctuations, with traditional fuel vehicles showing resilience earlier in the year, maintaining a penetration rate around 50% [5][6]. - In the second half of the year, traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a decline, attributed to the improved competitiveness of NEVs and the exposure of traditional vehicles' weaknesses [6][10]. - In August, traditional fuel vehicle promotions reached 22.9%, while NEV promotions were only 10.7%, highlighting the aggressive discounting strategies of traditional vehicles [8]. Market Dynamics - Traditional fuel vehicles are caught in a "vicious cycle," needing to sacrifice profits to maintain market share, which could lead to operational challenges for manufacturers and dealers [8][10]. - Some traditional dealerships are shifting towards NEVs, and certain joint venture brands are accelerating their electrification efforts [8][10]. Future Projections - The upcoming months, particularly during the "golden September and silver October," are expected to see a surge in NEV demand as consumers rush to take advantage of current tax exemptions before they decrease [11][13]. - While a temporary sales drop for NEVs may occur after the tax incentives are reduced, the long-term acceptance of NEVs among consumers is expected to grow significantly [13][15]. - The supply of NEVs is increasing, with a wider variety of options available compared to traditional fuel vehicles, and decreasing raw material costs for batteries may lead to more competitive pricing [15][16]. Conclusion - The competition between fuel and electric vehicles is nearing its conclusion, with projections suggesting that traditional fuel vehicles may shrink to around 10% market share, while NEVs could dominate with 90% [16].

Group 1: Industry Trends - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift in competitive dynamics, with companies reassessing their strategies in response to market realities [2][3] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales are increasing, with leading brands achieving monthly sales of 30,000 to 40,000 units, indicating a transition from a "10,000 club" to a higher competitive tier [2][3] - Traditional automakers are also seeing growth in NEV sales, with companies like Chery and Geely reporting significant year-on-year increases [3][4] Group 2: Sales Performance - BYD remains a dominant player in the NEV market, with May sales reaching 382,500 units, a 15% increase from the previous year [4] - In the first five months of the year, China's total NEV sales reached 5.608 million units, reflecting a stable growth trend despite a slowdown in the growth rate [4][6] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a growing number of companies achieving substantial sales figures, indicating a shift towards a multi-strong market [5][6] Group 3: Fuel vs. Electric Vehicles - BMW has reduced its future production forecasts for electric vehicles by nearly 20%, signaling a strategic pivot towards fuel vehicles [6][7] - Many domestic brands are not abandoning fuel vehicles, with companies like Great Wall and Geely emphasizing continued investment in fuel technology [6][8] - The market penetration rate for NEVs has decreased from a peak of 53.7% to 48.7%, indicating a more balanced competition between fuel and electric vehicles [6][8] Group 4: R&D and Profitability - Companies are increasingly focusing on balancing scale, cost, and profitability, with R&D being a critical component in achieving this balance [10][11] - Leading companies are investing heavily in R&D, with significant year-on-year increases in spending, which correlates with improved sales performance [12] - The relationship between sales volume and profitability is emphasized, with larger sales volumes helping to spread costs and improve margins [11][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The automotive market is expected to become more diversified, moving beyond price competition to focus on technology and innovation [15][16] - Companies are encouraged to explore niche markets and enhance product differentiation to drive future growth [15][16] - The industry is transitioning from a price-driven model to a value-driven approach, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and collaboration [17]