分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 冠通期货研究报告 --3月尿素月度报告 发布日期：2026年3月2日 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究咨询部 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点 观点： 综合来看，2月份尿素基本面受到假期放假的扰动，但由于临近农耕旺季，整体供需维持紧平衡的状态。2月月内印标及中东地缘政治冲突 虽短暂带来了情绪扰动，但是目前春耕放开出口的概率低，盘面价格主要围绕国内供需展开，高供应、低库存、高需求预期决定了震荡偏 强的主逻辑，而保供稳价的指导价格及后续国储放货压制上行空间，3月预计尿素在区间内震荡偏强为主，关注国储放货对于尿素的盘面影 响。 风险因素：出口政策、超预期检修、国储放货节奏 2 ➢ 供应端：截至2月25日，隆众数据计算的月度日产为21.8万吨，月内日产持续高于20万吨，短期暂无长期停车检修计划，气头装置部分 继续复产。按照目前日均 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：假期印标刺激，价格上行 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面高开高走，日内上涨，现货市场报价呈现上涨趋势，出货相 对顺畅，山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1780-1800 元/吨，多较节前上涨 20 元/吨左右。假期内印标发布，进口标购成交量大约 129 万吨，低于其 150 万吨的目标采购量，但依然支撑国内市场情绪。基本面 来看，上游工厂装置过年期间以稳定生产为主，肥易通口径今日日产数据已达 21.82 万吨。年初以同比偏低库存开启，假期间上游工厂开工正常而下游停 产、发运受阻，库存预计累库，但即将迎来春耕旺季阶段，目前依然处于去库 周期中，小麦返青追肥备肥预计即将开始进行，但同时受春耕时期保供稳价的 影响，预计上涨幅度受限，假期期间下游开工负荷低，复合肥工厂开工负荷为 24.5%，环比去化 11.69%，三聚氰胺虽开工负荷未受明显影响，但占比相对较 小。后续随着下游的逐渐开工及农业经销商积极拿货后，价格稳中偏强为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1856 元/吨开盘, 高开高走，日内上涨，最 终收于 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the process of bottoming out [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, and policies, and their trends vary [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends such as shock, upward, or downward [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound in the short term, and the long - term upward trend is not expected to end due to abundant funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper prices have rebounded after a decline due to improved downstream demand and increased market risk appetite [1] - Aluminum prices are fluctuating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and limited industrial - end drivers [1] - Alumina prices are oscillating with a decline in operating capacity and further inventory accumulation [1] - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize after a callback, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term but may be suppressed by high global inventories in the long term. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills, and short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1] - Tin prices are highly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - Platinum and lithium may fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1] Industrial products - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1] - For carbonates, it is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a need for a callback after a large increase [1] - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, high production and high inventory suppress price increases, and it is recommended to take corresponding positions [1] - For manganese silicon and ferro - alloy, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and supply may be disturbed [1] - For soda ash, it follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take corresponding positions according to market conditions [1] Agricultural products - For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, they are expected to turn to shock due to various factors such as备货 and tariff policies [1] - For cotton, it is in a situation of "supported but without drivers" in the short term, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions [1] - For sugar, there is a clear short - selling consensus, and attention should be paid to the change of funds [1] - For corn, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival factors [1] - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [1] - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand [1] - For logs, the disk has upward driving force due to rising prices and expected decline in arrival volume [1] - For live pigs, the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemical industry - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as OPEC+ suspending production increase, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment affect their trends [1] - For asphalt, there are factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and demand changes [1] - For BR rubber, the short - term disk is expected to have a wide - range shock, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1] - For PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products, they are affected by factors such as PX market strength, production capacity, and demand [1] - For ethylene, its price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals [1] - For methanol, there are factors such as import reduction expectations and downstream negative feedback [1] - For PVC, there are factors such as supply pressure, future expectations, and policy impacts [1] - For LPG, the disk is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - For container shipping on the European line, the freight rate has peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 61.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit increased by 17.93% to 5.33 billion RMB, primarily due to an improvement in gross margin [7]. - The company announced a dividend of 1.4 RMB per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 48.15%, which is an increase from 40.56% in 2023, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [7][13]. - The company is focusing on its core chemical business, reducing the proportion of low-margin trading activities, which has positively impacted its gross margin [8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 17.50%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-over-year, supported by stable prices for phosphate products and a decrease in raw material costs [8]. - The revenue from the phosphate fertilizer segment was 15.73 billion RMB, with a slight decrease in sales volume but an increase in average selling price [8]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 5.57 billion RMB for 2025 and 5.94 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.60% and 6.56% respectively [11][13]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is a leading player in the domestic phosphate and fertilizer industry, benefiting from its integrated operations and resource advantages [7]. - The report anticipates that fertilizer prices may rise during the spring planting season, which could further enhance the company's profitability [8]. - The company’s focus on optimizing its business structure and reducing debt levels is expected to improve its financial health and operational efficiency [8].