Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report: Strong Supply and Demand, High-level Fluctuations [1] - Release Date: March 30, 2026 - Report Issuer: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international urea market is generally in a tight situation, while the domestic supply is relatively abundant after the release of daily production and national reserve supplies. The downstream demand mainly relies on high-nitrogen compound fertilizers from compound fertilizer factories. The future agricultural demand is expected to be concentrated around May and June. Currently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has gradually increased to a high level, and the finished product inventory in the factories has been transferred to the end-users. However, as the spring fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate may stabilize. Recently, the prices of raw materials have increased to varying degrees. After the increase in compound fertilizer prices, the follow-up of new orders has slowed down, and most of them are based on the execution of previous orders. The inventory in urea factories has significantly decreased, and the de-stocking pattern is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, the international urea price has risen sharply, while the domestic market has only been affected by sentiment and has not seen a synchronous sharp increase. The sufficient backlog of orders supports the spot price, and the market will mainly fluctuate at a high level under the situation of strong supply and demand. If the situation in the Middle East eases, the market sentiment may decline, but currently, it will mainly fluctuate narrowly at a high level during the peak season [2] Summary by Directory Spot Market Dynamics - The urea spot market remained stable over the weekend, with acceptable trading activity. Factories still had pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices to attract orders. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained stable at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [5] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price was affected by Trump's threatening remarks on Monday and followed the energy and chemical sector up. It opened lower and closed lower on Tuesday, opened lower and closed higher but still ended down on Wednesday, opened higher and closed higher on Thursday and Friday. As of March 30, the main May contract of urea closed at 1,882 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the settlement price of 1,884 yuan/ton on March 23. The weekly trading volume last week was 20.00668 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.49162 million tons; the open interest was 8.4714 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 257,200 tons. Since the conflict in the Middle East, urea has continued to fluctuate at a high level and fluctuated within a range with the change of sentiment. Last week, the decline of urea futures was greater than that of the spot price, and the basis weakened. As of March 30, the basis of the 05 contract was -22 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton. As of March 30, the 5 - 9 spread was -46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 89 yuan/ton. On March 30, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,707, a week-on-week decrease of 5 [8][9][11] Urea Supply Side - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From March 19 to March 25, the weekly output of urea was 1.4756 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 2.88%, and the average daily output was 210,800 tons. Among them, the weekly output of coal-based urea was 1.2282 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.41%; the weekly output of gas-based urea was 247,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.14%; the weekly output of small-granule urea was 116,970 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.15%; the weekly output of large-granule urea was 305,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.83%. In the next cycle, 3 enterprises are expected to resume production, and 3 enterprises are expected to stop production. According to Feiyitong data, on March 30, 2026, the national daily output of urea was 219,900 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.67%. The international coal price increase and the general rise of the energy and chemical sector caused by the tight balance of overseas energy have driven up the coal price. However, as it is currently the off-peak season for electricity demand, the domestic inventory has increased, and there is no strong driving force for the price to rise in the off-peak season, but it is expected to perform well in the summer peak season. As of March 30, the quoted price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 was 761 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton; the market price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng was 950 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic liquefied natural gas price increased. As of March 30, the domestic benchmark price of liquefied natural gas was 4,494 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 304 yuan/ton compared with 4,190 yuan/ton on March 23. Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia increased. As of March 27, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,425 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of urea increased; the spread between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 525 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton. Last week, the spot price of methanol increased. As of March 27, the quoted price of methanol was 2,850 yuan/ton, and the spread between methanol and urea was 950 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 105 yuan/ton [15][17][19] Urea Demand Side - As of March 27, the quoted price of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 3,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has gradually increased to a high level, and the finished product inventory in the factories has been transferred to the end-users. However, as the spring fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate may stabilize. Recently, the prices of raw materials have increased to varying degrees. After the increase in compound fertilizer prices, the follow-up of new orders has slowed down, and most of them are based on the execution of previous orders. As of March 27, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 51.24%, a week-on-week increase of 1.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%. From March 21 to March 27, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 51.24%, an increase of 6.67 percentage points from the previous period and 10.05 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The increase in urea price and international energy price has been transmitted to melamine, and under the sentiment of buying on rising and not buying on falling of downstream customers, the peak season is obvious, and the operating rate of factories has significantly increased this week. In terms of inventory data, as of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises in China was 700,500 tons, a decrease of 108,400 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 13.4%, and 167,300 tons lower than the same period last year. During the peak season of spring plowing, the downstream sales were smooth, and the downstream factories actively purchased and stocked up. The resonance of the peak season of spring plowing and the increase in international urea prices stimulated more active trading activity, and the inventory in urea factories significantly decreased. It is expected that the de-stocking pattern will not change in the short term, and the de-stocking will continue next week. The sample inventory at ports was 169,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week [22][23] International Market - Australia has a large rigid demand gap, and global supplies are concentrated in Australia. In addition, the supply and shipment in the Middle East are affected by the geopolitical conflict, and the prices of energy such as natural gas and oil have skyrocketed, accelerating the price increase of global nitrogen fertilizers. Next, attention should be paid to India's new round of tendering. As of March 27, the FOB price of small-granule urea in China was reported at $752.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $40/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was $622.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $742.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was $772.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton. As of March 27, the FOB price of large-granule urea in China was reported at $795/ton, a week-on-week increase of $72.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in Egypt was $767.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $42.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in the Arabian Gulf was $727/ton, a week-on-week increase of $47.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in the Baltic Sea was $686.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $21.5/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was $775/ton, a week-on-week increase of $25/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was $685/ton, a week-on-week increase of $26/ton [25][27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, which affects the prices of oil and chemical products [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. The circulation volume in the northern mainstream propylene market increased temporarily, and downstream enterprises' resistance to receiving goods remained unchanged, with a cautious trading atmosphere [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures showed a relatively strong consolidation. For polyethylene, the cost was supported by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the supply side provided support. The demand side was in the spring plowing season, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited. For polypropylene, the upstream refineries' ex - factory prices remained high, the middlemen actively sold goods, but the high - price transaction pressure was prominent, and the downstream's enthusiasm and willingness to start work were weak [2] Polyester - Affected by the situation between the US and Iran, oil prices were strong, and PX and PTA prices fluctuated. The overall single - side trend was dominated by energy and closely related to the Middle East situation. PTA was dragged down by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene glycol's load decreased slightly, the port inventory increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. There was an expectation of tight supply due to the un - recovered external supply of Middle East energy chemical products [3] - Short fiber's load increased weekly, the downstream weaving's load increase slowed down, and new orders were not negotiated smoothly. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation and followed the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chip's efficiency was good, the load increased significantly last week, the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken. The load decreased slightly in the new period [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures contract rose significantly. The domestic pure benzene's starting load decreased, downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory continued to decrease. The import volume was expected to decrease, and the East China port was expected to continue destocking [5] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The sharp rise in the pure benzene price provided strong support from the cost side. The production of styrene might increase slightly, the inventory might continue to decline, and the demand side was expected to weaken slowly [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures rose strongly. The import volume decreased, the MTO start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased, and the East China port continued to destock. The domestic methanol plant's start - up increased, the profit of inland olefin enterprises continued to rise, and the downstream plant's start - up load increased. The supply - demand situation was expected to be strong [6] - The urea futures continued to consolidate at a high level. The domestic output decreased slightly, the agricultural fertilizer demand declined, the start - up of industrial compound fertilizer and melamine plants increased, and the urea production enterprises continued to destock. The urea market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The overall supply increased slightly, the downstream procurement was poor, the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased seasonally but was still at a relatively low level compared with history. The export was expected to improve from March to April [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The liquid caustic soda inventory increased, the chlor - alkali profit continued to rise, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the high - strength caustic soda had good support from export orders, and the downstream alumina production was stable, but the downstream traders' enthusiasm for purchasing decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated. The industry inventory increased, the maintenance increased this week, the start - up and weekly production decreased, the rigid demand for float glass was stable, the photovoltaic glass had a serious oversupply, and there was a trend of cold repair and production reduction, which was expected to drag down the demand for soda ash [8] - Glass fluctuated. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down, the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches was large, and the downstream was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The production capacity fluctuated slightly, and the glass futures price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea price continued to decline today mainly due to the dissipation of previous emotional interference, and the market has basically returned to the fundamentals. Currently, both supply and demand are strengthening marginally. Although the state reserve supply has impacted the market and the price has reached a high - range position, the strong support during the peak season is expected to lead to high - level fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea market opened low and moved lower today, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%. The upstream factory quotes were stable, but the trading activity decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton. By the end of the month, the state reserve supply will be fully released, and the market supply is abundant. Although the number of temporary shutdowns and overhauls of upstream factories has increased in the past two days, the impact is relatively weak. The downstream demand includes both agricultural and industrial sectors. The terminal sales of compound fertilizers are smooth, and although the production has gradually recovered, the finished product inventory is still being depleted. The wheat top - dressing for greening has basically ended, but subsequent crops such as spring corn still require a large amount of high - nitrogen compound fertilizers. Despite the squeeze on factory profits due to rising raw material prices, high demand corresponds to high supply. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the energy - chemical sector has strongly driven the downstream purchasing sentiment. Coupled with the support of the spring plowing peak season, the inventory has continued to decline significantly, and most regions except Shanxi and Chongqing have seen inventory depletion [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1,878 yuan/ton, opened low and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%, and finally closed at 1,855 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change rate of - 1.70%. The trading volume was 227,858 lots (- 16,877 lots). Among the top twenty main positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 4,858 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,059 lots. Among them, GF Futures had a net long position of - 858 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of + 715 lots, Yide Futures had a net short position of - 4,162 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 1,755 lots. On March 18, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,499, a net increase of 444 compared with the previous trading day, with 444 from Zhongnong Cloud Warehouse [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - The upstream factory quotes were stable, but the trading activity decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1. Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes and the futures closing price both declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 23 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [6]. 3.3.2. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 18, 2026, the daily national urea production was 215,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 86.17% [8]. 3.3.3. Enterprise Inventory Data - According to Longzhong Information, as of March 20, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.29 days, an increase of 0.23 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the urea fundamentals were affected by the holiday, but overall supply and demand remained in a tight - balance state due to the approaching farming season. The Indian tender and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts brought short - term emotional disturbances, but the probability of export liberalization during the spring plowing season is low. The high supply, low inventory, and high - demand expectations determine the main logic of a moderately strong uptrend. The guiding price for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and subsequent state reserve releases will limit the upside. In March, urea is expected to fluctuate moderately upwards within a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of state reserve releases on the urea futures market [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In February, the main urea contract fluctuated and rose, with a monthly increase of 3.18% and an amplitude of 5.92%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, there was a short - term supply - demand mismatch. Supported by the spring plowing season, stimulated by the Indian tender, and limited by the price ceiling for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the price increased, and the subsequent upward logic awaits the peak season [12] - Urea warehouse and factory warehouse receipts have a maximum validity period of 4 months. As of February 27, there were 0 registered urea warehouse receipts, and although the previous warehouse receipts were higher than in previous years, it was the time for warehouse receipt cancellation [15] - Since February, as the farming season approached, prices began to rise. With low inventory at the beginning of the year, prices were higher than in 2025. The ex - factory prices in major regions fluctuated between 1760 - 1830 yuan/ton. On February 28, the guiding price for April - June was announced, which was the same as the March price. The ex - factory quotes in Shandong were concentrated at 1840 yuan/ton. In March, spot prices are expected to rise moderately, but the upside is limited as they are approaching the guiding price [18] - In February, the basis strengthened, and after entering the peak season, the basis is expected to gradually turn into a premium [27] - As of February 27, the 5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton, 17 yuan higher than at the end of last month. The spread strengthened, and the market is gradually transforming into a near - strong, far - weak Back structure, which is expected to deepen as prices rise [31] 2. Supply Situation - In January 2026, urea production was 628.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.12 million tons (4.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 55.65 million tons (9.7%) [38] - As of February 25, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 218,000 tons, with daily production consistently above 200,000 tons. There are no short - term long - term shutdown and maintenance plans, and some gas - based plants are resuming production. Based on the current daily production, February's production is expected to be 6.01 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years [38] 3. Cost and Profit - As of March 2, the price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng remained unchanged at 920 yuan/ton, and the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 48 yuan/ton to 748 yuan/ton. In February, mines were on holiday and downstream production resumed slowly, with prices fluctuating moderately. Next month, due to major meetings, mine production progress may be affected, and prices are expected to be moderately strong [43] - As of February 27, the fixed - bed cost was 1711 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the coal - water slurry cost was 1517 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 31 yuan/ton; and the natural gas cost was 1978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The fixed - bed gross profit increased rapidly. Currently, the production profits of coal - water slurry and fixed - bed are both positive, and the cost - line support is weak [43] 4. Inventory and Pending Orders - As of February 27, 2026, the in - factory urea inventory was 1.176 million tons. During the holiday, upstream plants continued production while downstream production and提货 were suspended, leading to a large increase in inventory. After the Lantern Festival, downstream industries began to resume production, and the snow and rain in North China may stimulate early fertilizer preparation and top - dressing for wheat green - turning, causing inventory to start decreasing. The current inventory level is much lower than that after last year's Spring Festival, which supports the urea price [47] - Before the festival, most pending orders were completed, and the number of order days decreased from the high level. In March, the number of order days is expected to remain high, with agricultural demand driving an increase in orders [47] 5. Downstream Agricultural Demand - March marks the peak season for agricultural demand, with the start of fertilizer preparation for wheat green - turning and top - dressing. Recent snow and rain have advanced agricultural demand [50] 6. Compound Fertilizer - In February, the center of the compound fertilizer market rose. The prices of potassium chloride and sulfuric acid supported the increase in compound fertilizer prices. After the holiday, raw materials remained strong, and finished - fertilizer prices remained high. As finished - product inventory is sold and used at the terminal, compound fertilizer prices are expected to continue rising [56] - As of February 27, the compound fertilizer factory's operating rate was 33.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.34%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in mid - February, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories dropped sharply. It is expected to gradually resume production after the Lantern Festival. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the current operating load is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the centralized shipment of spring fertilizers has not started, and the in - factory finished - product inventory is high. As factories resume production and downstream demand increases, urea is expected to have strong support during the high - nitrogen compound fertilizer demand period [63] 7. Other Industrial Demands - As of February 27, 2026, the melamine capacity utilization rate rose to 55.91%, a monthly decrease of 8.26%. The holiday had little impact on melamine production [67] 8. International Urea Market - In India's urea import tender on February 18, a total of 3.07 million tons of bids were received from 20 suppliers. The lowest offer on the east coast was $512/ton CFR, a significant increase of $85.2/ton compared to the previous tender, and the lowest offer on the west coast was $508/ton CFR, a significant increase of $83.2/ton compared to the previous tender. The latest shipping date for this tender is March 31 [71]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The urea price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend as the downstream gradually resumes work and agricultural dealers actively purchase goods. However, the price increase is limited due to the supply - guarantee and price - stabilization measures during the spring plowing season [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened high and moved higher on February 24, 2026. The spot market quotes showed an upward trend, and the shipment was relatively smooth. The ex - factory quotes of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton, about 20 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday. The Indian tender during the holiday supported the domestic market sentiment, although the import tender volume of about 1.29 million tons was lower than the target of 1.5 million tons [1][5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1856 yuan/ton, closed at 1855 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.42%. The trading volume was 243,654 lots, an increase of 12,245 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 5,723 lots, and short positions increased by 9,510 lots. On February 24, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,235, a decrease of 2,625 compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Spot**: The spot market quotes showed an upward trend, and the shipment was relatively smooth. The ex - factory quotes of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton, about 20 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday [5] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: On February 24, 2026, the national daily urea output was 218,200 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.45% [9] - **Downstream**: From February 14 to February 20, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.5%, a decrease of 11.69 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.17%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous week [10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the process of bottoming out [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, and policies, and their trends vary [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends such as shock, upward, or downward [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound in the short term, and the long - term upward trend is not expected to end due to abundant funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper prices have rebounded after a decline due to improved downstream demand and increased market risk appetite [1] - Aluminum prices are fluctuating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and limited industrial - end drivers [1] - Alumina prices are oscillating with a decline in operating capacity and further inventory accumulation [1] - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize after a callback, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term but may be suppressed by high global inventories in the long term. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills, and short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1] - Tin prices are highly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - Platinum and lithium may fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1] Industrial products - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1] - For carbonates, it is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a need for a callback after a large increase [1] - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, high production and high inventory suppress price increases, and it is recommended to take corresponding positions [1] - For manganese silicon and ferro - alloy, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and supply may be disturbed [1] - For soda ash, it follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take corresponding positions according to market conditions [1] Agricultural products - For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, they are expected to turn to shock due to various factors such as备货 and tariff policies [1] - For cotton, it is in a situation of "supported but without drivers" in the short term, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions [1] - For sugar, there is a clear short - selling consensus, and attention should be paid to the change of funds [1] - For corn, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival factors [1] - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [1] - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand [1] - For logs, the disk has upward driving force due to rising prices and expected decline in arrival volume [1] - For live pigs, the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemical industry - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as OPEC+ suspending production increase, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment affect their trends [1] - For asphalt, there are factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and demand changes [1] - For BR rubber, the short - term disk is expected to have a wide - range shock, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1] - For PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products, they are affected by factors such as PX market strength, production capacity, and demand [1] - For ethylene, its price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals [1] - For methanol, there are factors such as import reduction expectations and downstream negative feedback [1] - For PVC, there are factors such as supply pressure, future expectations, and policy impacts [1] - For LPG, the disk is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - For container shipping on the European line, the freight rate has peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 61.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit increased by 17.93% to 5.33 billion RMB, primarily due to an improvement in gross margin [7]. - The company announced a dividend of 1.4 RMB per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 48.15%, which is an increase from 40.56% in 2023, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [7][13]. - The company is focusing on its core chemical business, reducing the proportion of low-margin trading activities, which has positively impacted its gross margin [8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 17.50%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-over-year, supported by stable prices for phosphate products and a decrease in raw material costs [8]. - The revenue from the phosphate fertilizer segment was 15.73 billion RMB, with a slight decrease in sales volume but an increase in average selling price [8]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 5.57 billion RMB for 2025 and 5.94 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.60% and 6.56% respectively [11][13]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is a leading player in the domestic phosphate and fertilizer industry, benefiting from its integrated operations and resource advantages [7]. - The report anticipates that fertilizer prices may rise during the spring planting season, which could further enhance the company's profitability [8]. - The company’s focus on optimizing its business structure and reducing debt levels is expected to improve its financial health and operational efficiency [8].