沥青期货周报 2026年02月24日-02月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 证券代码：839979 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周06合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为3315元/吨,周五收盘价为3346元/吨，周涨幅为0.94%。 供给端来看，根据隆众对92家企业跟踪，2026年3月份国内沥青总排产量为218.7万吨，环比增 加25.1万吨，增幅13.0%，同比下降4.3万吨，降幅1.9%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为 23.0705%，环比增加0.599个百分点，全国样本企业出货13.04万吨，环比减少0.98%,样本企业产量 为38.5万吨，环比增加2.67%,样本企业装置检修量预估为118.9万吨，环比减少10.80%,本周炼厂有 所增产，提升供应压力。下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with the current daily production and operating rate at a high level compared to the same period last year. As maintenance work concludes, the operating rate is expected to rise further. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. The order demand has improved significantly compared to the previous period, and the agricultural reserve demand has increased. Industrial demand is mainly based on actual needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are at a moderate level. There is a large price gap between domestic and international markets for exports, and the recent low - price replenishment demand is relatively concentrated. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (+10). The UR2605 contract basis is - 34, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (- 34,000 tons), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, indicating a bearish signal. The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The order demand has improved, the reserve demand has increased, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected that urea will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise. Comprehensive inventory continues to decline with an obvious de - stocking pattern. Order demand has improved, agricultural reserve demand has increased, industrial demand is based on actual needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are moderate. There is a large export price gap, and low - price replenishment demand is concentrated. The domestic market is still oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is - 34, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (- 34,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating rate continuing to rise, improved order demand, increased reserve demand, and inventory depletion. It is expected that urea will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Inventory de - stocking and improved orders [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1740, up 10; the price of Shandong spot is 1740, up 10; the price of Henan spot is 1740, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2807 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The 05 contract price is 1774, down 9; the basis is - 34, up 19; UR01 price is 1692, unchanged; UR05 price is 1774, down 9; UR09 price is 1749, down 14 [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 13,355, up 155; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.022 million tons; UR port inventory is 135,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production has also generally increased, and the import dependence ratio has shown a certain degree of fluctuation. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also increased year by year, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low procurement willingness of traders, and the real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it is recommended to take a volatile and bearish approach [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, considering factors such as weakening supply and demand, increasing inventory, blocked exports, and the impact of domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is also suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' procurement willingness is still weak. The real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3290, and the basis is 146, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 2.9018 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Likely factors**: Low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [3]. - **Negative factors**: The downstream real - estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak, lower than the same period [4]. Hot - rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role, which is neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3270, and the basis is - 24, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.9081 million tons, increasing month - on - month and year - on - year, which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [7]. - **Likely factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [9]. - **Negative factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coking coal, the overall production of origin mines has decreased due to safety inspections and internal issues in some areas, with no obvious inventory pressure. However, the poor profitability of coking and steel enterprises, along with the decline of the black - series futures market, has led to cautious downstream procurement. The price of some coal types is under downward pressure, and most remain stable. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal has decreased due to the recent price adjustment of some raw coal. Most coking enterprises maintain a slight profit, and the supply is increasing steadily. The coking enterprises' inventory has increased slightly, and the pressure is not large. The market supply has improved, while the demand - side steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. The coke supply - demand structure has changed from tight to a weak balance, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - On November 21st (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index showed that the prices of various types of metallurgical coke in ports such as Rizhao Port, Tianzhao Port, and Huangdao Port decreased by 10 yuan, while some prices remained unchanged [10]. 3.2 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [27]. 3.3 Other Data - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. With high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory, the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals suggest an overall ample supply as alkali plants are at high production levels and Yuanxing's Phase II is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year. Downstream float glass supply has disturbance expectations, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -33 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national soda ash plant inventory is 164.44 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - The short - term trend of soda ash is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positives**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded from a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Likely Negatives**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1182 | 1140 | - 42 | | Current Value | 1158 | 1125 | - 33 | | Change Rate | - 2.03% | - 1.32% | - 21.43% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in the Fundamental Analysis - The profit of heavy soda ash production is at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 232 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80%. The weekly production of soda ash is 73.92 million tons, including 41.09 million tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant increase in new soda ash production capacity. The planned new capacity in 2023 is 640 million tons, 180 million tons in 2024, and 750 million tons in 2025, with 100 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.7 Demand in the Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 100.93% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.91 million tons, and the operating rate is 75% [27]. 3.8 Inventory in the Fundamental Analysis The national soda ash plant inventory is 164.44 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the soda ash industry. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1231 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1175 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 56 yuan, with a change of 0.41%, 0.43%, and 0.00% respectively compared to the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1175 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash is at a historical low, with a profit of - 103.50 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 232 yuan/ton for the East China combined - soda process [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80%, and the weekly output is 73.92 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 41.09 tons, and the output is at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there are large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. Fundamentals - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 100.93% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.91 tons, and the operating rate is 75% [27]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 170.73 tons, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and various growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,696 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,611 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. It is expected that the demand may remain sluggish next week. Meanwhile, the number of planned maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly. The market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.70%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.75%, a month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 345,350 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.89%, while the production of ethylene enterprises was 146,770 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production [5]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 37.61%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 39.4%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.79%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.370 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was -769.4 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase in losses of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was -465.05 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double-ton spread was 2,239.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78%. Ethylene factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.20%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.65%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. The report provides charts of price trends, trading volume, and open interest, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents charts of basis trends and spreads between different contracts, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is provided [10][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: The report provides historical data charts of prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi-coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [19][22][24][26][29]. - **Supply and Demand Trends**: The report provides historical data charts of supply and demand indicators such as production, operating rates, trade volumes, pre-sales volumes, production and sales ratios, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [31][33][36][37][40]. - **Inventory**: The report provides historical data charts of inventory indicators such as exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [48]. - **Ethylene Method**: The report provides historical data charts of import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volumes, and price spreads in the ethylene method, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [50]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly supply and demand balance sheet for PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including data on exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [53]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on the price chart and moving average indicators, it is expected that the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [57][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3,143 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3,299 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.96%. - In terms of supply, the total planned asphalt production in China in June 2025 was 2.398 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 290,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73%. The production of sample enterprises was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74%. Refineries reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. - In terms of demand, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.1%, down 0.13 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of building asphalt was 9.9%, down 0.46 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 12.0898%, down 0.51 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 32%, up 3.00 percentage points month - on - month; and the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, down 3.50 percentage points month - on - month. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short term. - In terms of inventory, social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; and port diluted asphalt inventory increased. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate. - It is expected that the demand recovery next week will be limited, supply will decrease, and cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Review and Outlook - This week, the 01 contract rose. The opening price on Monday was 3,143 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3,299 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.96% [5]. - Supply: The total planned asphalt production in June 2025 was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the production capacity utilization rate decreased, shipments increased, production decreased, and maintenance volume increased. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [5]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with most construction rates showing a downward or slightly upward but still sub - average trend [5]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit increased, the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased, the asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [6]. - Inventory: Social and factory inventories decreased, while port inventory increased. It is expected that demand recovery will be limited next week, supply will decrease, cost support will strengthen, and the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [6]. Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and Basis Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil, and the spread trends between asphalt contracts, providing a reference for analyzing the relationship between asphalt futures and spot prices and the price trends of related products [9][10][15][16]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends between asphalt contracts (1 - 6 and 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, crude oil cracking spreads, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, helping to understand the relative price relationships and market trends among different products [12][15][18][22]. Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions, reflecting the price changes in the asphalt spot market [25]. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the spread trends between coking and asphalt profits, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production and the profit differences between different production processes [28][31]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production volume, local refinery asphalt production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and estimated maintenance loss volume. These data reflect the supply - side situation of asphalt, including production, inventory, and raw material supply [34][36][39][43][47][50][53]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory - to - stock ratio, etc., reflecting the overall inventory situation of asphalt [56][61][64]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt, helping to understand the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [67][70]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt construction rates (by type and use), and downstream construction conditions. These data reflect the demand - side situation of asphalt [73][76][79][83][88][91][94]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of asphalt [99]. Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [104].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of asphalt showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,433 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,328 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.05%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, cost support will weaken, and the market may experience a bearish and volatile adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract of asphalt declined this week, opening at 3,433 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 3,328 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 3.05% weekly drop [5]. - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.398 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise production was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [5]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and short - term support is expected to weaken [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the in - plant inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.48%; the diluted asphalt inventory at ports was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.69%. Social inventory continued to decline, in - plant inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 11 - contract of asphalt showed a downward trend. Based on the price and volume chart, it is expected that next week, the market may experience a bearish and volatile adjustment [104][105].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall situation is bearish, with the price fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average in the range of 120,000 - 123,800. Traders should control their positions before the holiday [2]. - **不锈钢**: The situation is neutral, with the price broadly fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data - **镍 and Stainless Steel Price**: On September 29, the Shanghai nickel主力 contract closed at 121,100, down 280 from September 26; the London nickel price was 15,325, up 170. The stainless steel主力 contract was 12,760, down 80. Spot prices of various nickel and stainless - steel products showed little change [12]. - **基差**: The Shanghai nickel spot price was 122,000, with a basis of 900; the average stainless - steel price was 13,962.5, with a basis of 1,202.5 [2][4]. 2. Inventory Data - **镍 Inventory**: As of September 29, LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (up 1,188), and Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (down 96) [2]. - **不锈钢 Inventory**: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 87,148 (down 357). On September 26, the national stainless - steel inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 5,400 tons [4][19][20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **镍 Fundamental**: The nickel ore price is firm, and due to the typhoon, mine loading and shipping may be delayed. The nickel - iron price is stable, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The production and sales data of new - energy vehicles are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited boost to nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [2]. - **不锈钢 Fundamental**: The spot stainless - steel price is flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price, shipping freight, and nickel - iron price are all stable, and the cost line is firm. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down [4]. 4. Market Outlook - **镍 Outlook**: The Shanghai nickel 2511 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, operating in the range of 120,000 - 123,800 [2]. - **不锈钢 Outlook**: The stainless - steel 2511 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 5. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].